Article: Mailbag: Looming Strike, Free Agent Issues, Pitch Clock

[Cody Christie]

In the last week, the Twins have gotten things up and running in Fort Myers. The club played their first few games on their Grapefruit League schedule. Minnesota also made a splash by signing super utility player Marwin Gonzalez to a two-year contract. It’s tough to know where he will fit in the line-up, but he can play almost anywhere so he should still get regular at-bats.

 

There were certainly some interesting questions in this week’s mailbag. Let’s head to the mailbox and open some mail.

Baseball players certainly have some concerns with how the system is currently being run. Over the last two winters, teams have not been willing to give veteran players long-term contracts. Even the highest rated free agents have been on the market all the way until spring training began.

 

According to USA Today, “The conditions players feel are suppressing their earning power – a luxury tax that serves as a de facto salary cap, a heavy reliance on analytics that leads to wage suppression, a segment of ownership disincentivized and perhaps ambivalent about winning – aren’t going away until then, if at all.”

 

Teams have also manipulated service time of their top prospects to delay them reaching free agency. Players would like to reach free agency after five years, arbitration after two years, and for the minimum salary to be raised. To make this kind of change, the players are going to have to give something up.

 

Players are getting frustrated and some are even preparing for a looming strike. It took baseball a long time to come back from the last strike. Hopefully, it won’t happen again.

 

Free agency sure has taken on a different feel over the last two off-seasons. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado had to feel good about reaching free agency at such a young age. Still, it took until February for either of them to sign. With the way organizations approach spending money, I didn’t think anything will change with how clubs spend money next off-season.

 

Names like Paul Goldschmidt, Xander Bogaerts, Nolan Arenado and Justin Verlander could all be on the free agent market. Goldschmidt and Verlander are already in their 30’s. Arenado might be the most prized free agent but there is talk of him signing a long-term deal with the Rockies. Bogaerts is good but he isn’t in the same realm as some of the other names on this list.

 

Until the player’s union can force some changes, free agency is looking less appealing for veteran players.

 

When it comes to the pitch clock, I think it is what it is. Players and teams need to get used to the idea because Major League Baseball is going to have a pitch clock. Younger players are getting used to the clock in the minor leagues so that will help the transition. I truly believe it will become something that fans and players don’t even notice. It will just become a transparent element of the game.

 

Commissioner Rob Manfred’s focus on pace of play will certainly continue to be part of the game moving forward. I think a pitch clock will impact the length of games, but I don’t think it will be a significant impact. Baseball will continue to need to address at things like pitching changes and mound visits. Players can also take some of this on themselves. Pitchers can get the ball back on the mound and pitch right away. Batters can stay in the box and wait for the next pitch to come.

 

Pitch clocks are just part of the steps MLB is going to take to speed up the game.

 

Cleveland is vulnerable for the first time in years. I think the Twins can be in contention all the way into September. That being said, some of the young core needs to take the next step. I think Byron Buxton is going to have a breakout season and he will be the team’s lead-off hitter for a post-season run. So, let’s see what the line-up could look like:

 

Potential September 2019 Line-Up

1. Byron Buxton, CF

2. Jorge Polanco, SS

3. Nelson Cruz, DH

4. Miguel Sano, 3B

5. Eddie Rosario, LF

6. Marwin Gonzalez, 1B

7. Jonathan Schoop, 2B

8. Max Kepler, RF

9. Mitch Garver, C

 

The newly signed Gonzalez could fit into a few different spots in the line-up. I thought about putting him at first or second. Former first-round pick and top prospect Alex Kirilloff could hit his way into the line-up by September as well. I’d hope the team is giving more at-bats to Garver than Jason Castro in September since Castro will be a free agent. However, the team will likely be using both catchers and riding the hot bat.

 

What do you think about this week’s questions? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[Guest]

The only way the players will get meaningful change to the current system will be to convince ownership that they're willing to strike rather than roll over (again) during the negotiation of the next CBA. I simply don't see it happening. It would require an incredible amount of unity among young & old, veteran and non-veteran players. I'll believe they can pull that off when I see it.

[Twodogs]

It seems to me that with the influx of international players which has to be at one of the highest points of all time that maybe MLB is ready for expansion? If you go back 30 years ago there was not this many players from Asia, dominican, etc... So like any market, if the market is flooded with talent then teams really don't have to pay very much for it. Now you add a couple more teams into the mix and I'd bet guys would be getting signed a little quicker? Just an idea that maybe would help the players in the future?

[Twodogs]

Buxton has 10 RBI in 2 games. That looks nice!

[mikelink45]

I am really frustrated about all the angst in the Machado and Harper delayed signings.  They are represented by Boras and he always signs late.  It is his strategy to get teams desperate. I am not a fan of the billionaire owners, but I call this the Boras affect.  It is about time these businesses realized that they are throwing money away and everytime Pujols comes to bat it is a reminder (Hughes would be a reminder but he does not come to the mound).  Look at what Machado got - no sympathy for the players on this round, but I do admire how they have taken over the conversation.

[SomeGuy]

 

I am really frustrated about all the angst in the Machado and Harper delayed signings.  They are represented by Boras and he always signs late.  It is his strategy to get teams desperate. I am not a fan of the billionaire owners, but I call this the Boras affect.  It is about time these businesses realized that they are throwing money away and everytime Pujols comes to bat it is a reminder (Hughes would be a reminder but he does not come to the mound).  Look at what Machado got - no sympathy for the players on this round, but I do admire how they have taken over the conversation.

Machado isn't a Boras client but I agree, the agents have done a good job of making it look like only the owners are at fault for players signing late.

[PDX Twin]

I have a hard time working up a lot of sympathy for someone who wants $350m rather than $300m. All MLB players earn very high salaries, period. If there is a problem it is with the minor-league players.

[BJames]

On that Line-up.  I'd go with Polanco leadoff, Buxton,Rosario,Cruz,Kepler,

[Kelly Vance]

Yeah, I'm with PDX. You used to be able to take a family to the ball park without it costing $200. You want a beer and a hot dog and you get almost nothing back from a $20. Nobody is worth $350 million

[Supfin99]

Players are upset because nobody wants to pay them when they are 35 any more.  It's just common sense to not pay someone for their declining years.  A vast majority of these long term contract have been bad if not outright disastrous for the clubs.  If Machado and Harper had been willing to sign 5 to 7 year deals they would have been signed months ago.  It isn't the owners fault that the players have not adjusted their demand to meet the current climate.

[HrbekRules]

I do think that for the top players, if they wanted to sign lower years, with higher AAV, teams would be willing to do this.

[South Dakota Tom]

I agree this is a ground-up, rather than a bottom-down, problem.    The argument that you need to overpay in years and AAV for veterans because the owners got to underpay for them when they were coming up doesn't make economic sense for the owners.    It is, however, the way that the system currently balances out the division of the pie.   

 

I think the notions of (substantially) increasing the minor league pay at each level, increasing major league minimums,  and decreasing length of time until arbitration, and length of service until free agency will resolve most of this - especially if coupled with a competitive requirement to spend a certain portion of revenue on salaries for each team, and a sprinkling of anti-tanking measures (throw all non-playoff teams into a total lottery system for first three rounds of draft order, teams that don't spend the "floor" of their revenue don't receive revenue-sharing).    The players have turned the conversation so far, but this is going to be a devastatingly difficult CBA to negotiate.

[HrbekRules]

I'm all for raising the minimum and moving up arbitration/free agent timeline.  Paying minor leaguers more would also help the players in getting the portion of profits that they have earned.  Putting in a payroll floor would help raise overall salaries, although I'm not sure if it would help the baseball middle class, or just the upper class.  I do like South Dakota Tom's idea of a lottery for draft picks to stop teams from tanking.

[Twodogs]

I wonder what Curt Flood would think about the problems of today's CBA?

 

 

[Dantes929]

 

I have a hard time working up a lot of sympathy for someone who wants $350m rather than $300m. All MLB players earn very high salaries, period. If there is a problem it is with the minor-league players.

I agree completely.  To be fair, I have very little sympathy for the owners either.

[Twodogs]

I think analytics are somewhat to blame for the change of approach that ownership has. For instance most players are just numbers now and not names. When a player had developed a name for himself he was paid according to his reputation, some good, some bad. However, now most of these guys don't have names anymore they are just a bunch of numbers. So at one point in time your name got you paid, now it's your numbers and the funny thing is that one person's numbers may be better than another person's, but not significantly better, so then I feel teams just kind of ignore the guys who have good numbers but not significantly better numbers than some kid they can pull out of AAA. I mean why does it seem so hard for a guy like Moustakis to get some sort of deal done. I mean it's obvious that he is one of the better guys at his position, and in the old days someone would have overpaid for his services not only because he performs pretty well but because he is a proven winner and a good guy. But even though he is one of the better players at his position, he is not significantly better than someone they can replace him with. So he toils in these good but not great one year deals.

[USNMCPO]

 

I wonder what Curt Flood would think about the problems of today's CBA?

I knew Curt Flood when he was running a disco in Majorca, Spain. What a great guy! I am sure he would have a lot of really interesting things to say.

[jmlease1]

The players and player's union were fine with this system (which rewarded veteran players much more handsomely at the expense of younger players) as long as there were teams that were willing to make signings that were loaded with risk and based more on prior production than future performance. As franchises have gotten smarter and more analytical about projecting performance and fewer franchises have reckless ownerships willing to throw extremely long and risk-laden contracts at veteran free agents, their discontent with the system has grown.

 

This is not news, and it's one of the reasons why it's challenging to have sympathy for the players: they're extremely wealthy and have been totally comfortable with screwing the next generation of players in order to protect the current generation.

 

Ownership, of course, is even wealthier and deserves no real sympathy either: their membership is filled with bad actors who don't treat their franchises as a community trust. They're drawing ever increasing amounts of revenue even with fan interest wavering, and work incredibly hard to conceal their true costs of operation so they can claim poverty whenever convenient.

 

A strike would probably be a very poor outcome for both sides, but the players seem to be feeling more militant. But it's hard to have sympathy for the players when their primary argument right now is "how dare you operate systemically and intelligently to mitigate risk!" They're going to need to reframe things pretty significantly and quickly (and there are plenty of better arguments to wield against ownership) because going into a labor war over Bryce Harper (who hasn't been an all-star caliber player in 2 of the last 3 season) not getting paid for 10 years as if he's 2015 Bryce Harper doesn't really play well...and the owners know it. This isn't like the 80's when FA weren't getting offers from anyone other than their own clubs.

[Twodogs]

They might need to re-structure how they pay each draft slot sort of like the NFL does? But then owners could end up paying big for players that go bust in the night. AKA Ryan Leaf etc....

[PDX Twin]

 

 But even though he is one of the better players at his position, he is not significantly better than someone they can replace him with. So he toils in these good but not great one year deals.

 

This is the key, for me. There are few players who are legitimately "difference makers," either on the field or in terms of attracting attendance. For everyone else, a rising prospect is a "cheap" and close substitute, so it's not worth paying a lot more than the basic wage. This is basic economics and I think that some of the analytics have demonstrated this to GMs. The players can rant and rave, but they can't really change the economic laws of nature any more than Ford or Chrysler can return to the days of the 1960s when there were no substitutes for their unreliable gas-guzzlers.

[jkill]

I never understand why people blame the players for their salaries. The owners set the market. The owners charge the ticket prices and concessions. The owners ask for tax payers money. 

 

If you pay the players "what they are worth" (which in itself is debatable) do you think the owners are going to lower prices or pocket the money? In my opinion the only reason we choose to get mad at the players is that their money is public. I guarantee if you saw what the owners take home was you would not be so quick to blame the players for asking for the money they are asking.

 

I would love to know more about your thoughts on this subject.

[Dman]

I think the solution is players are going to need to get to FA sooner to be paid what they are truly worth sooner.  If more players hit FA in their 25, 26, 27 years then they can market their prime years and talent to the highest bidders sooner. 

 

The problem with that approach will be that small markets will have more trouble keeping the best talent on their teams as teams with greater monetary resources will have the advantage to buy the best performing players during their prime years.

 

Everyone knows it doesn't make sense to pay for unproductive years anymore. Players only have so many years to maximize their earning in this sport. So something has to change if the players want salaries to stay high. It is going to be tough to make this work for both sides, but I would start by reducing the service time it takes fro players to reach FA.  

[mikelink45]

 

Machado isn't a Boras client but I agree, the agents have done a good job of making it look like only the owners are at fault for players signing late.

And Harper is, guess who is last to sign.  But I was not referred to just this year, Boras has gotten lots of headlines from holding his players back and waiting late over the years. 

[mikelink45]

 

This is the key, for me. There are few players who are legitimately "difference makers," either on the field or in terms of attracting attendance. For everyone else, a rising prospect is a "cheap" and close substitute, so it's not worth paying a lot more than the basic wage. This is basic economics and I think that some of the analytics have demonstrated this to GMs. The players can rant and rave, but they can't really change the economic laws of nature any more than Ford or Chrysler can return to the days of the 1960s when there were no substitutes for their unreliable gas-guzzlers.

You are right.  Look at Mike Trout and all the best players in baseball, Best player in this generation - he cannot take his team to the playoffs.  That just does not work.  

[adorduan]

I'd be all for increasing the minimum salary and letting players get the free agency faster, but only if they would be willing to give up guaranteed contracts.  That will never happen.

[ashbury]

I'd be all for increasing the minimum salary and letting players get the free agency faster, but only if they would be willing to give up guaranteed contracts.  That will never happen.

Unless they can opt for free agency from the start of their careers, whatever number of years they are tied to their team amounts to guaranteed contracts (complete with opt-outs!) in the team's favor. I think it's a fair symmetry to allow players to ask for similar in return, when that time finally comes.

[cgreuling]

Would something like a guaranteed minimum based on serivce time + performance based on an agreed upon WAR calculation make sense? That way when a player performs under team control, he still gets paid.

[Knuckleball9]

You folks are spot on... Any solution that would work won't float because of too much self interest. This is why I can only give MLB my love and NOT my $$$.  Just a joke. How about 5 team divisions based on payroll?  ha ha.  Or take all MLB revenue including TV deals, divide by 30 ?  Socialism!!

[Twodogs]

This is the key, for me. There are few players who are legitimately "difference makers," either on the field or in terms of attracting attendance. For everyone else, a rising prospect is a "cheap" and close substitute, so it's not worth paying a lot more than the basic wage. This is basic economics and I think that some of the analytics have demonstrated this to GMs. The players can rant and rave, but they can't really change the economic laws of nature any more than Ford or Chrysler can return to the days of the 1960s when there were no substitutes for their unreliable gas-guzzlers.

You are correct, about the only thing the older players have, or at least had say 10 years ago was name recognition, you could say this guy was going to put more people into the seats than some unknown, but the unknown may perform just as, or close to as good as the guy with name recognition. Now I feel in the steroid era that the older guys did play better because they were less injury prone and they had greater experience. But that isn't as much the case now.

 

However, I'm not sure your analogy flies, as all of the 1960 vehicles that I see all seem to be more expensive than the new ones.

 

 

[Intramural Legend]

 

Players are upset because nobody wants to pay them when they are 35 any more.  It's just common sense to not pay someone for their declining years.  A vast majority of these long term contract have been bad if not outright disastrous for the clubs.  If Machado and Harper had been willing to sign 5 to 7 year deals they would have been signed months ago.  It isn't the owners fault that the players have not adjusted their demand to meet the current climate.

 

The problem with this way of looking at things is the reality that many of these players are underpaid* prior to free agency.  There was always an unwritten understanding that while the players would not make full value prior to FA, they would be able to make up for it on the backend of their career.  Teams are now wising up to the approach, and not securing the long term contracts like before.

 

If you are a player, wouldn't you be upset with the system?  The problem is that even fixing the issue for the younger players (faster to arbitration, faster to FA) does nothing for the current veterans.

 

*Underpaid is relative -- I understand they all make more than most of us could dream of.