Article: Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher

[sdangus]

 

Castro is a lame duck catcher. The sooner that Garver is considered the starter, and Castro the back-up and mentor, the better in my opinion. The passed balls and catcher created wild pitches that was a part of Castro's game even when healthy did not go unnoticed by me. Perhaps it escapes the advanced stats. But I saw them, and remember them. Now, Garver did not impress with a quick brain at times, but at least he is going to be here (probably) the next few years. And I don't really want an OK bat at catcher (and Castro was horrible even before his injury last year). I want a hitting catcher. And a fielding catcher. The sooner the balls and strikes are called by a non subjective method the better. Pitch framing, the art of cheating the reality of the actual location of the pitch, is a bogus skill caused by the inability of baseball to use the best tools available to make the calls more correct. Throwing the guy out at second, less passed balls, and turning wild pitches into blocks instead of creating wild pitches are the fielding skills I like.

 

It will be interesting to see what the arch of Astudillo is this year.

In Castro's full season with the Twins, he had 5 passed balls and wildpitches during his catching time. In comparison JT Realmuto had 8 PB and 34 WP last year in similar # of games, Posey in his last complete season 1 PB and 32 WP, Yadier Molina last year 4 PB and 39 WP. Where do you see Castro out of line with the other top catchers?

[jmlease1]

 

Castro is a lame duck catcher. The sooner that Garver is considered the starter, and Castro the back-up and mentor, the better in my opinion. The passed balls and catcher created wild pitches that was a part of Castro's game even when healthy did not go unnoticed by me. Perhaps it escapes the advanced stats. But I saw them, and remember them. Now, Garver did not impress with a quick brain at times, but at least he is going to be here (probably) the next few years. And I don't really want an OK bat at catcher (and Castro was horrible even before his injury last year). I want a hitting catcher. And a fielding catcher. The sooner the balls and strikes are called by a non subjective method the better. Pitch framing, the art of cheating the reality of the actual location of the pitch, is a bogus skill caused by the inability of baseball to use the best tools available to make the calls more correct. Throwing the guy out at second, less passed balls, and turning wild pitches into blocks instead of creating wild pitches are the fielding skills I like.

 

It will be interesting to see what the arch of Astudillo is this year.

 

"advanced stats" absolutely would take passed balls into consideration when evaluating catcher performance, and would be the only way someone might try to capture something like "catcher created wild pitches" (which is a hilarious new stat that seems to be "I think it should have been a passed ball but the official scorer is dumb").

 

Castro isn't a lame duck any more than any player in their walk year is, but the fact that he's coming off a significant injury and is in that walk year means there's an opportunity for Garver to seize the job as the starter. And if either Garver or Castro goes down for any significant period of time, it opens a window for Astudillo to show he can be the next backup here, or potential to start.

 

Everyone wants a catcher who can hit and field.

 

Castro's first year with the club, he had a fine season, hitting well for the position and playing good defense while working well with the pitching staff and the catching position for the Twins was one of the more productive in baseball (8th in WAA). Last year he started slow but only played 19 games before getting hurt. That's hardly a big enough sample size to write him off as cooked.

[Mr. Brooks]

Castro is not a solution to the Twins dodgy catching situation--he cannot hit with any regularity. In critical situations with runners in scoring position he is virtually an automatic out, usually by strike out. The Twins have got to do better than Castro to be a serious contender in the division, much less the post season.

Castro has a career OPS .14 points higher with runners in scoring position than he does with the bases empty.

[ashbury]

Castro has a career OPS .14 points higher with runners in scoring position than he does with the bases empty.

In 2018 across the majors, OPS with RISP was .753, while with bases empty it was only .710.

 

I'm not saying Castro isn't clutch, just that the situation lends itself to higher production ... for at least a couple of reasons I could think of but which aren't a tangent probably worth pursuing in a thread about catchers.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Castro has a career OPS .14 points higher with runners in scoring position than he does with the bases empty.

Runners in scoring position is not quite the same thing as critical situations (or LI). I once did a semi-deep dive on Castro’s 2017 situational hitting and I agree with the other poster.

 

However, I’m still good with Castro as a starter in 2019.

[howieramone2]

 

The Twins leadership seem to be the only people in baseball who don't think Astudillo has earned a more serious look as a 1 or 2 catcher . . . with more than one national pundit suggesting he'd be a top 10 MLB catcher right now.   With all due respect to Castro, why is a no-brainer that he's the #1 guy?  Why on earth aren't they eager to get more MLB AB's for the Tortuga and see if he can maintain the torrid hitting?  

I haven't read a thing from the national experts saying he is a 1 or 2. May be somewhere someplace, but to say we're the only people in baseball is wildly exaggerated. My guess is Castro will be traded, no later than the deadline.

 

Then we will find out if he's more than the flavor of the month. 

Edited February 26, 2019 by howieramone2

[mlhouse]

1.   I think the defensive metrics for catchers, particularly "pitch framing" are way over rated.

 

2.   Whatever Castro's net defensive value over Garver is, at best it is cancelled out by Garver being the much better hitter.

 

3.   I personally do not think that all of the statistical measures are essentially additive.  In baseball, most events are chains.  One guy singles.  Another moves him to 2nd on a FC.  Another guy gets a hit and drives in the run.

 

So, a team that has 7 strong hitters can afford to have a couple of limited hitting elite defenders (Castro is far from elite) because the top 7 hitters will statistically make many more combinations of events that will create runs.  But on weak teams, you just cannot afford to have such negative value hitters.

 

4.   Giving Castro much credit for the 85 win season is a stretch.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

I think this is an area of strength. Not many teams have this kind of depth at the position.

 

I'm a big fan of Mitch Garver, but if it was up to me I'd send him to Rochester to start the year. He's been working hard on his framing, a big area in need of improvement. If he's only going to catch half the time or less with the Twins, send him down and get those good habits cemented with a nice stretch of regular playing time with the Red Wings. At the same time, that gives you some more opportunity to evaluate where Castro is at and just what the heck you have in Astudillo.

He's going to be 28..... He should be in Minnesota, hitting like a top ten or better catcher.

[yarnivek1972]

Castro is not a solution to the Twins dodgy catching situation--he cannot hit with any regularity. In critical situations with runners in scoring position he is virtually an automatic out, usually by strike out. The Twins have got to do better than Castro to be a serious contender in the division, much less the post season.

Castro has a career walk rate of almost 10% and a career K rate of about 27%. Both of those are better than most of his teammates.

[Doomtints]

Reality check:

 

Castro is more likely to be extended than Astudillo is to be the Twins #1 catcher, much less the regular #2 catcher.

 

We love Astudillo, the Twins org keeps signing people ahead of him on the depth chart. This team won't keep 3 catchers on the roster and the utility slots are full.

[Mike Sixel]

Reality check:

 

Castro is more likely to be extended than Astudillo is to be the Twins #1 catcher, much less the regular #2 catcher.

 

We love Astudillo, the Twins org keeps signing people ahead of him on the depth chart. This team won't keep 3 catchers on the roster and the utility slots are full.

He's a use case for earlier free agency. Someone would give him a chance, imo.

[scottz]

 

He's a use case for earlier free agency. Someone would give him a chance, imo.

I think he's going to get a chance (again) with the Twins this year. It just likely won't be on the 25 man to start. He has an option, they'll use it. I hope he gets to keep the frequent flier miles.

 

(edit: original wrote 40 man...meant 25)

Edited February 27, 2019 by scottz

[scottz]

Re: Garver and his concussion

 

Garver took a ding sometime before when symptoms occurred on September 14. That's less than 6 months ago. He's going to put on the tools of ignorance, and at some point this year, he's going to take a foul tip off the grill. It is almost a mathematical certainty.

 

There's no certainty that he'll get a concussion from any ball that hits him. But if he was out for a few weeks from the last one - even if he was out only for an abundance of caution - I tend to be reminded that any foul ball might be the last one.

 

I hope he has a good long career, but it would not shock me to see him move on from a career in catching as early as 2019.

 

(Full disclosure: my son is going through concussion protocol right now - his second since October - so I'm a little pessimistic about just how many MLB foul tips a brain can take when a couple of 12 year olds kicking soccer balls can cause problems.)

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Reality check:

 

Castro is more likely to be extended than Astudillo is to be the Twins #1 catcher, much less the regular #2 catcher.

 

We love Astudillo, the Twins org keeps signing people ahead of him on the depth chart. This team won't keep 3 catchers on the roster and the utility slots are full.

agreed. Falvey and Levine also love to trade away expiring contracts. Look for Castro to get the 2/3 share until mid July then get traded away

[LylesCrocodiles]

I don’t know who to give credit to for those 85 wins in 2017. Maybe Paul Molitor?

[LylesCrocodiles]

Castro isn’t my favorite player by any means but of the 3 catchers that have any chance of making the 25 man roster Castro is by far the best defender/thrower. Sure Garver and Austidillo offer more with the bat but we’re not talking about a Mike Piazza or a Carlton Fisk behind the plate. Or even a Brian Harper for that matter.

 

All 3 guys will get a chance. We will see how it all plays out.

[h2oface]

 

But my worry is that after the Gonzalez signing as a "super utility" player, Astudillo won't be seen as "essential" by the brass and will be sent to AAA to start the season.

 

Hey! Not a utulity player! Watch it now. 

 

"Can I make a correction? Not a utility guy," Baldelli interjected during Gonzalez's introductory press conference. "And I only say that just because it's something I've heard used before all the time. We consider Marwin an everyday player. He's just a multipositional everyday player."

[Platoon]

To be fair, we're the only team that has actually given him major league at bats. Based on the Twins calling up Bobby Wilson last year and not Astudillo, I think there are some legitimate questions surrounding his defense at catcher.

Or some serious concerns over the decision making process? A team going nowhere uses a Mendoza line veteran catcher versus a younger one with a tempting hit tool, and an adequate glove at the least? Baseball may have an influx of numbers oriented management, but they still struggle when faced with a player who doesn't look the part, and can't or won't fit into a prevailing view. Some players fail there entire careers with evaluators wondering why the guy doesn't succeed? And some, like Astudillo, succeed there entire careers while evaluators wonder why they don't fail, like their supposed to? It's sometimes an insurmountable hurdle.

[diehardtwinsfan]

A few things:

• I don't think people quite get how much worse catchers are at hitting than other positions. Castro, if healthy, is probably a league average hitter, which is significantly better than most catchers.
• I like our major league depth. I think all 3 of our guys have upside. I do think Garver could work on his defense, but he's making strides there and given his bat, I'm content to be patient. 
• Astrudillo is a bit of a wildcard still, but I woudln't be surprised at all if he's the #2 catcher behind Garver in 2020 if he can pick up where he left off (though a .350+ BA is probably not sustainable).
• I wouldn't be surprised at all if Castro is traded at the deadline, especially if Garver and Astrudillo are doing well. Astrudillo will eventually get a call. May not be at C, but if he's hitting, I have to think they move on from Castro. He's not good enough to get a QO in my opinion, so this might be an odd scenario where he's moved at the deadline even if we're doing well. I could see that as a part of a 3 team trade where the prospects go elsewhere but we end up with some ML help if we're contending, or just a prospect if we aren't.
• I'm not very high on our minor league depth. I really like Rortvedt and Jeffers, but both still have question marks and the system is pretty barren outside of them. Jeffers bat looks like it will play in the majors, but he still has strides to make defensively, and Rortvedt's bat is not a sure thing (though I think we all agree that it has some upside). Not only that, but Rortvedt is just getting his first taste of AA this year, and he may start again in Fort Myers. I do hope that they have a similar strategy to last year and draft several college catchers or even a HS catcher if you see one fall to the right place. 

[howieramone2]

 

 

A few things:

• I don't think people quite get how much worse catchers are at hitting than other positions. Castro, if healthy, is probably a league average hitter, which is significantly better than most catchers.
• I like our major league depth. I think all 3 of our guys have upside. I do think Garver could work on his defense, but he's making strides there and given his bat, I'm content to be patient. 
• Astrudillo is a bit of a wildcard still, but I woudln't be surprised at all if he's the #2 catcher behind Garver in 2020 if he can pick up where he left off (though a .350+ BA is probably not sustainable).
• I wouldn't be surprised at all if Castro is traded at the deadline, especially if Garver and Astrudillo are doing well. Astrudillo will eventually get a call. May not be at C, but if he's hitting, I have to think they move on from Castro. He's not good enough to get a QO in my opinion, so this might be an odd scenario where he's moved at the deadline even if we're doing well. I could see that as a part of a 3 team trade where the prospects go elsewhere but we end up with some ML help if we're contending, or just a prospect if we aren't.
• I'm not very high on our minor league depth. I really like Rortvedt and Jeffers, but both still have question marks and the system is pretty barren outside of them. Jeffers bat looks like it will play in the majors, but he still has strides to make defensively, and Rortvedt's bat is not a sure thing (though I think we all agree that it has some upside). Not only that, but Rortvedt is just getting his first taste of AA this year, and he may start again in Fort Myers. I do hope that they have a similar strategy to last year and draft several college catchers or even a HS catcher if you see one fall to the right place. 

 

We got a catcher in the Hughes trade, one from IFA money sent to Seattle, and our 6th round pick in the 2013 draft continues to move up. Catcher is not the black hole it was. 

[Shaitan]

 

Funny how we tout Garver on his way up as a hitting catcher.  Then out of no where comes La Tortuga (which is feminine by the way for anyone who took Spanish in high school).  Sorry, but I'd give La Tortuga the starting job.  He hits, and if a guy like Machado is a +10 wins guy in your lineup, I'd laugh at the +wins from Castro or Garver.  So why not give Astudillo the job?

 

Money.

Just a note, but for those who took Spanish in high school: the "gender" of a word does not necessarily reflect the gender of the subject. "La tortuga" refers to a turtle, regardless of gender. 

[SomeGuy]

Its probably not fair to say "we had the means to make it happen with Grandal."  He flat out told us he had no desire to sign here and according to reports we had the best offer on the table.

[Doomtints]

 

Hey! Not a utulity player! Watch it now. 

 

"Can I make a correction? Not a utility guy," Baldelli interjected during Gonzalez's introductory press conference. "And I only say that just because it's something I've heard used before all the time. We consider Marwin an everyday player. He's just a multipositional everyday player."

 

I feel like that's how the Twins have always used utility players. They play every day.

[by jiminy]

While Gonzalez would seem to push Astudillo out of the utility player role, there's a good chance that could change. Gonzalez is only the utility player until someone gets hurt or gets benched. As Bonnes and Gleeman pointed out on the podcast, there are question marks to make it through the year at several positions: Sano could get hurt or moved from third or demoted; Schoop could fail to bounce back; and an injury could occur at just about any position. The benefit of Gonzalez is he can fill in almost anywhere as a starter without a big drop off. And when that happens, Astudillo or Adrianza would probably replace him in the utility role. Since Astudillo can also catch, and is a better hitter, he'll have a good shot at replacing Gonzalez when he becomes a starter.

[Doomtints]

 

While Gonzalez would seem to push Astudillo out of the utility player role, there's a good chance that could change. Gonzalez is only the utility player until someone gets hurt or gets benched. As Bonnes and Gleeman pointed out on the podcast, there are question marks to make it through the year at several positions: Sano could get hurt or moved from third or demoted; Schoop could fail to bounce back; and an injury could occur at just about any position. The benefit of Gonzalez is he can fill in almost anywhere as a starter without a big drop off. And when that happens, Astudillo or Adrianza would probably replace him in the utility role. Since Astudillo can also catch, and is a better hitter, he'll have a good shot at replacing Gonzalez when he becomes a starter.

 

This assumes Gonzalez is the first option should a position player go down and Astudillo is the first option as a utility player behind Gonzalez. Neither may be true.

 

What we know is Gonzalez was signed for two years, Adrianza is around (though injured), and Astudillo feels like a very good option as a full time utility player. Maybe Adrianza is going away, but we don't know. With Astudillo being the youngest and with the organization expecting him to fail, it's difficult to see him getting enough of a chance. There have been recent Twins who played well in the majors in their short chances but got passed over many times for players who performed worse and, in my opinion, they started to decline because of it. I would hate for this to happen to Astudillo.

 

And this is only considering Astudillo's chance as a utility player, not even as a catcher. I think Castro will have one of his best years in 2019 which will block Astudillo there. Castro is in a contract year and he is coming back from a year off. He will do well. If Castro fails, it's the end of his career and he knows it. Garver similarly (though not as desperately) also wants to prove himself.

Edited February 28, 2019 by Doomtints

[thegambler]

If Astudillo is not on the 25 man roster to start the season, I'm going to PUKE. The guy has produced at every level with the bat, and he is starting to get some sneaky power. He absolutely tore up Winter Ball this year. He's not a Gold Glove defender at any position, but he is far from the worst, above average in the field. He could be a starter on a lot of teams. He needs to be on the roster, if winning is more important than options that is.

[NewClearHarley]

anyone have any thoughts on what KC might give us for the one year Castro rental? Not expecting much but it would save us some cash and open a roster spot.I know they said they are comfy with Cam Gallagher, but as a Royals fan I cannot fathom that. 

[Mr. Brooks]

anyone have any thoughts on what KC might give us for the one year Castro rental? Not expecting much but it would save us some cash and open a roster spot.I know they said they are comfy with Cam Gallagher, but as a Royals fan I cannot fathom that.

Does KC really consider themselves a contender?

[Nine of twelve]

 

"advanced stats" absolutely would take passed balls into consideration when evaluating catcher performance, and would be the only way someone might try to capture something like "catcher created wild pitches" (which is a hilarious new stat that seems to be "I think it should have been a passed ball but the official scorer is dumb").

 

I don't know much about advanced stats, but I wonder if there's something called "wild pitches prevented percentage" or something similar. Track all pitches that were more than some arbitrary distance outside the strike zone (including any pitch in the dirt) with runners on base or with two strikes on the batter and find out what percentage of those pitches did not become wild pitches. HBP would not be included.

Edited March 3, 2019 by Nine of twelve

[NewClearHarley]

 

Does KC really consider themselves a contender?

no not really, but I bet they would like a veteran catcher to help Gallagher and the young pitching staff, the only other catcher currently with a shot to make the team is a hit tool kid who has only High-A experience.