Article: BREAKING: Twins to Sign Versatile Marwin Gonzalez

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This is a great board. Keep the opinions coming. I love it. (But we're hilarious with our special insights that the front office hasn't considered yet.)

 

I loved your post so much I wrote a play about it.

 

ACT 1

 

March, 2018. Location: Mother's basement.

 

Twins Daily posters: Hey look! We signed Logan Morrison!

 

Most other posters: YAY!!

 

A few posters: why?

 

The other posters: Don't you think the front office has thought this through?

 

Those other posters: ...

 

ACT 2

 

February 2019. Mother's basement.

 

Twins Daily posters: Hey look!

 

 

 

The End

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

More and more, I am thinking the Gonzalez signing is a Plan B for third base, for the reasons spycake is laying out. I wouldn't expect many people to think Sano will play more than 80-100 games in the field. He is too susceptible to injury and slump.

 

Gonzalez might also be a mid-game substitution quite a bit when Sano does start (though not necessarily subbing for Sano).

[Vanimal46]

I also envision Gonzalez as a perfect plan B at 3B and 2B if Sano or Schoop fail to produce. They needed someone who can start for an extended length of time in case of injury, a la Eduardo Escobar last season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This board is great. I really enjoy reading 10 pages of opinions every time we sign somebody. That's not sarcasm. I love it.

 

However, I find it very funny that we (myself included) get caught up in a bunch of what if performance scenarios, or player value scenarios, or roster management scenarios and then use those scenarios to defend or attack the front office decision. Like I said, I do it too, but it's hilarious. Do we think the front office didn't think of any of these things? That they don't question whether or not this signing makes them better or has ripple effects down to, say, Gordon or Rooker or Astudillo or the 41st guy that they'll have to DFA or the 26th guy who will instead go to Rochester? It's hilarious.

 

This is a great board. Keep the opinions coming. I love it. (But we're hilarious with our special insights that the front office hasn't considered yet.)

 

This is my favorite site on the internet. Go Twins. Go Twins Daily.

 

I agree with the underlying sentiment -- I love Twins Daily too.

 

But this line of thought is a little dangerous -- it often gets invoked here as a discussion killer: "the front office knows better than you do."

 

I'd suggest that most of us aren't bringing things up here because we think the front office hasn't considered them. We bring them up simply because we're interested, and we want to learn and understand more about them. The front office decision making process takes place behind closed doors. Sound bites and newspaper quotes barely scratch the surface about why they made a move, and what the implications of the move are -- and of course, how a move eventually turns out.

[TheLeviathan]

The starting 9 the Twins are currently penciling in are hardly a reliable bunch.  It's not just Sano that is wise to insure on this team.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I also envision Gonzalez as a perfect plan B at 3B and 2B if Sano or Schoop fail to produce.

Schoop's floor is fairly high, though. Last year was his worst, and he was still worth 1.4 bWAR. And he's only 27 years old, and guaranteed $7.5 mil. If he's healthy, I have a hard time seeing him cut or going to the bench, even if his production isn't very exciting. He could lose some reps to Gonzalez, but not too many.

 

Sano, on the other hand...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The starting 9 the Twins are currently penciling in are hardly a reliable bunch.  It's not just Sano that is wise to insure on this team.  

Sano at 3B really stands out, though. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but the non-Sano and non-Buxton projected starters all have a pretty high floor -- you normally wouldn't worry about having a starting alternative for them (that is, something more than a backup or occasional sub) on the MLB opening day roster.

[Vanimal46]

Schoop's floor is fairly high, though. Last year was his worst, and he was still worth 1.4 bWAR. And he's only 27 years old, and guaranteed $7.5 mil. If he's healthy, I have a hard time seeing him cut or going to the bench, even if his production isn't very exciting. He could lose some reps to Gonzalez, but not too many.

 

Sano, on the other hand...

Like RiverBrian, I am waiting and hoping for a time when salary wage doesn't equal automatic playing time. Schoop's floor was unacceptable in Milwaukee during their playoff run and benched him... If he continues what he did in Milwaukee I would want him benched too whether or not he's making $7.5 million.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sano at 3B really stands out, though. Nothing is ever guaranteed, but the non-Sano and non-Buxton projected starters all have a pretty high floor -- you normally wouldn't worry about having a starting alternative for them (that is, something more than a backup or occasional sub) on the MLB opening day roster.

 

They have varying question marks.  Our SS is a drug test away from being done.  Schoop had a sub-.600 OPS the second half of last year.  Rosario struggled mightily as well.  Buxton is no sure thing with injuries or production.  Ditto Sano.  Cron might have been a flash in the pan.  

 

I don't know how someone looks at the Twins starting 9 and says "Yup...we know what we're getting from these guys!"  

 

*Vanimal sniped me!

Edited February 23, 2019 by TheLeviathan

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

They have varying question marks.  Our SS is a drug test away from being done.  Schoop had a sub-.600 OPS the second half of last year.  Rosario struggled mightily as well.  Buxton is no sure thing with injuries or production.  Ditto Sano.  Cron might have been a flash in the pan.  

 

I don't know how someone looks at the Twins starting 9 and says "Yup...we know what we're getting from these guys!"  

 

*Vanimal sniped me!

I don't know exactly what we're going to get from all of them either -- but I also don't realistically see a scenario where we bench Rosario, Polanco, or Kepler in 2019. No guarantee, but they project with pretty good health too. Similar for Cruz at DH, although health could be a bigger factor there at his age. Another failed drug test would be a lightning strike event, not an issue of reliability.

 

I doubt they are overly concerned with Schoop's last 130 PA, especially since they came when he was mostly parked on Milwaukee's bench.

 

Cron I could see benched or cut, but I don't think he actually had much flash in his pan! He was 2 WAR last year, and looks like a 1-2 WAR guy. Maybe he's already Sano/Cruz insurance.

 

Buxton and Sano really stick out compared to this group, and especially the latter, since Buxton should at least be able to handle CF if he's healthy, and we can always slide Kepler over if he's not. But Sano's pretty shaky even if he is healthy, and there wasn't even a cursory backup plan for him before Gonzalez.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Like RiverBrian, I am waiting and hoping for a time when salary wage doesn't equal automatic playing time. Schoop's floor was unacceptable in Milwaukee during their playoff run and benched him... If he continues what he did in Milwaukee I would want him benched too whether or not he's making $7.5 million.

How a player performs in a random 130 PA sample isn't their "floor."

 

Also, Milwaukee had multiple better options when they acquired Schoop -- Shaw and Moustakas, chiefly. They didn't bench Schoop, so much as acquired him for their bench / left him on their bench. I wouldn't read too much into 130 PAs of a bench player, especially as they even tried to use him at a new position (shortstop).

 

And I'm not saying Schoop's salary will guarantee him playing time -- I'm saying the Twins wouldn't have committed those resources to him, if they suspected they would need to bench him in the first half of the season.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't know exactly what we're going to get from all of them either -- but I also don't realistically see a scenario where we bench Rosario, Polanco, or Kepler in 2019. 

 

There is no benching required.  You get huffy when people take something you didn't say and run with it and you just did that.  None of these players have to be benched for Gonzalez to help the team.  Any one of a number of very plausible scenarios happens and he's a great guy to have around.  Here are just a few, very possible scenarios:

 

Rosario has another several month plunge into poor play that Gonzalez can help spell and maybe give Rosario a chance to reset.  He allows us to play Kepler in CF if Cave proves to be less reliable than hoped in the (all too common) event that Buxton is hurt or struggling.  If Schoop is the .682 version that Milwaukee benched in favor of playing two dudes at 2B who had no experience - he helps cushion that.  If Cron fails and Sano takes over 1B....we have him to help at 3B.  If Polanco gets hurt we have an option.  

 

Or, in the almost certain event we have a significant injury, he becomes the starter rather than a guy in AAA.  Yes it's Sano, but it's much more than that.

Edited February 23, 2019 by TheLeviathan

[JD Green]

I am thinking Marwin is very likely to have a better year overall than 2 or 3 or 4 of those we are considering our starters or 25 man at this point in time. Sano? Castro? Schoop? Cron? Kepler? Buxton? Adrianaza? Some of these might be in their year of pass or fail. Marwin signing is an improvement to this team.

 

Still need a pitcher or two, hoping we aren't done yet.

 

Answers to our questions will start coming to light in another month.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There is no benching required.  You get huffy when people take something you didn't say and run with it and you just did that.

Please don't make these things personal. I don't think it helps advance the discussion. I am really trying to discuss in good faith here, as I was yesterday too.

 

I thought we were specifically talking about backup plans for starters, as in, taking over a starting job. Gonzalez has a solid chance to do that for Sano in 2019, regardless of Sano's health. Maybe a bit for Cron or Buxton, perhaps indirectly. The others? Not so much.

 

Obviously Gonzalez can spell everyone on the field (well, almost everybody -- he's no Tortuga) and provide value that way too. I was just looking at the narrow consideration of replacing one of our projected starters.

[ashbury]

In basketball, you often see players who are termed "tweeners". Talented but not supremely so. A little tall to be a guard and lacking the quickness for the position or the deadly three-point range, but not quite strong enough to play forward. Or, similarly, a tall guy who lacks the muscle to play a purely inside game, but isn't quite quick enough to give the guys on the wings trouble defending him if he plays outside.

 

Marwin Gonzalez is a tweener, in my view. Unless he has another 2017 in him.

 

If you put him where his glove is an asset, such as LF or 1B, his bat really doesn't shine in the company of other players at those positions.

 

If you put him where his bat is an asset, like at SS, his glove gives away about as many additional baserunners (compared to more gifted defenders) as he gains at the plate.

 

At third base, his bat's a little light. At second base, the glove probably isn't quite what it needs to be.

 

Houston is a hell of a team, but still there are 7 positions aside from catcher and pitcher, and Marwin (in several seasons now) never was viewed as a guy who should be penciled in to any one of them on a permanent basis.

 

Free agency is an expensive way to acquire talent. $11M for a 2-WAR type of player is about the going rate. Marwin's a very good backup, where often the backup is a 1-WAR type.

 

Those who suggested that signing Marwin didn't improve our ceiling very much, but did raise our floor quite it bit, are on the right track. And I think John Bonnes said it best, that Marwin is a solution to a problem that we don't know about yet.

 

Again, if 2017 Marwin still exists, then he's not a tweener, and he needs to play every day.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I think its more than that. He adds a little to the ceiling of the team, but what he really does is solidly the floor. We now have a guy who can play at a solid to above average level at several positions when guys get hurt, slump, etc. I think now instead of being a 75-90 win team (I know, I'm  an optimist at the top end), we're an 82-92 win team because he is able to play instead of Adrianza, Motter, etc. 

We agree that he helps solidify the active roster, but IMO he doesn't cement this team as above .500. I'm with Chief on this one, he's a nice utility guy to have, and I'm glad the team made an upgrade, but I don't think he really moves the needle much in either direction. There's no doubt thats valuable, but I think his potential impact is being a bit overstated. 

[TheLeviathan]

If "replacing a starter" is your new hill I don't see how Sano is higher on that list than Cron or Schoop.

[TheLeviathan]

We agree that he helps solidify the active roster, but IMO he doesn't cement this team as above .500. I'm with Chief on this one, he's a nice utility guy to have, and I'm glad the team made an upgrade, but I don't think he really moves the needle much in either direction. There's no doubt thats valuable, but I think his potential impact is being a bit overstated.

 

Utility player is an unfair term. He is average to above at every position he plays by wRC+

[blindeke]

This is a thing too, from the Strib http://www.startribune.com/twins-reach-deal-with-marwin-gonzalez/506221452/ :

 

Adrianza is still not 100 percent following offseason surgery on his left shoulder. The injury affected Adrianza’s follow-through while batting righthanded, forcing the switch-hitter to bat lefthanded against lefthanded pitchers during the final weeks of last season. He’s been icing the shoulder since arriving at camp and will only bat lefthanded during spring training games. Surgery took place on Oct. 9, and he was told recovery would be six to eight months.

 

“Everybody knows I can’t hit righthanded right now,” Adrianza said, “so they might have to figure out who’s pitching to decide if I play.”

 

I didn't know he was not 100%.

[ashbury]

 

This is a thing too, from the Strib http://www.startribune.com/twins-reach-deal-with-marwin-gonzalez/506221452/ :

 

Adrianza is still not 100 percent following offseason surgery on his left shoulder. The injury affected Adrianza’s follow-through while batting righthanded, forcing the switch-hitter to bat lefthanded against lefthanded pitchers during the final weeks of last season. He’s been icing the shoulder since arriving at camp and will only bat lefthanded during spring training games. Surgery took place on Oct. 9, and he was told recovery would be six to eight months.

 

“Everybody knows I can’t hit righthanded right now,” Adrianza said, “so they might have to figure out who’s pitching to decide if I play.”

 

I didn't know he was not 100%.

When does the 60-Day Injured List become available again? I think it's sometime early in spring training - maybe already. That could be the solution for whom to drop from the 40-man when Marwin is added - retroactive to when the surgery occurred - defer the decision, in other words, since other injuries could arise.

[scottz]

I agree with the underlying sentiment -- I love Twins Daily too.

 

But this line of thought is a little dangerous -- it often gets invoked here as a discussion killer: "the front office knows better than you do."

 

I'd suggest that most of us aren't bringing things up here because we think the front office hasn't considered them. We bring them up simply because we're interested, and we want to learn and understand more about them. The front office decision making process takes place behind closed doors. Sound bites and newspaper quotes barely scratch the surface about why they made a move, and what the implications of the move are -- and of course, how a move eventually turns out.

It’s dangerous to not ever question authority. It’s not dangerous to think the front office knows better. They have more data, more resources, more time to focus on just the team. The vast majority of the time, they do know better (David Kahn being an exception).

 

And again, no discussion killing is desired from me. I either get to read about opinions different from my own (good!) or I get to legitimately laugh out loud when someone implies, states, or insists that the front office hasn’t thought through a decision. It’s not impossible, of course; most of us probably have jobs where we see someone in a position of authority that seems to just shoot from the hip. But that person is generally not at the top of an organization.

 

So continue on, fair posters! You bring new opinions to me or you make me laugh. And if I make you laugh sometimes, good! Laugh away!

Edited February 23, 2019 by scottz

[ashbury]

And again, no discussion killing is desired from me. I either get to read about opinions different from my own (good!) or I get to legitimately laugh out loud when someone implies, states, or insists that the front office hasn’t thought through a decision. It’s not impossible, of course; most of us probably have jobs where we see someone in a position of authority that seems to just shoot from the hip. But that person is generally not at the top of an organization.

 

You didn't work for these guys, then.

[scottz]

I loved your post so much I wrote a play about it.

ACT 1

March, 2018. Location: Mother's basement.

Twins Daily posters: Hey look! We signed Logan Morrison!

Most other posters: YAY!!

A few posters: why?

The other posters: Don't you think the front office has thought this through?

Those other posters: ...

ACT 2

February 2019. Mother's basement.

Twins Daily posters: Hey look!

The End

Basements can be nice!

This reminds me of One of my favorite conversations with my then 8-ish year old son.

 

ME: What do you think you want to be when you grow up?

 

SON: (thinks a bit) I think I kind of want to just be a person.

 

ME: What does that mean? To just be a person?

 

SON: You know, live in the basement...play video games.

 

ME: Well, I hate to break it to you, but you’re not going to be a person.

[Danchat]

 

This is a thing too, from the Strib http://www.startribune.com/twins-reach-deal-with-marwin-gonzalez/506221452/ :

 

Adrianza is still not 100 percent following offseason surgery on his left shoulder. The injury affected Adrianza’s follow-through while batting righthanded, forcing the switch-hitter to bat lefthanded against lefthanded pitchers during the final weeks of last season. He’s been icing the shoulder since arriving at camp and will only bat lefthanded during spring training games. Surgery took place on Oct. 9, and he was told recovery would be six to eight months.

 

“Everybody knows I can’t hit righthanded right now,” Adrianza said, “so they might have to figure out who’s pitching to decide if I play.”

 

I didn't know he was not 100%.

Good point, I did hear from Reusse that he thinks Adrianza is going to start the year on the DL, and reading this, I can see why...

[Otto von Ballpark]

If "replacing a starter" is your new hill I don't see how Sano is higher on that list than Cron or Schoop.

There's no hill. There are just different aspects I am interested in. The platoon aspect, the potential starter replacement aspect, etc. And these aren't knocks on Gonzalez or this deal -- it's simply speculation about his potential role, that's all.

 

Sano was -0.5 bWAR last year, in half time. He wasn't even hurt, was he? He was awful both defensively and offensively.

 

By comparison, Schoop's bad year was still 1.4 bWAR with a steady glove. Cron has been a 1-2 bWAR regular the last 3 years. And in the context of this org, we already had a top prospect at 2B repeating AAA, a 1B prospect who should hit AAA soon, and another AAAA 1B.

 

But prior to Gonzalez, we had no one behind Sano at 3B except Adrianza or Torreyes.

 

The front office probably can't admit it publicly, but I suspect they'll always make extra sure Gonzalez has a 3B glove ready!

[Otto von Ballpark]

When does the 60-Day Injured List become available again? I think it's sometime early in spring training - maybe already. That could be the solution for whom to drop from the 40-man when Marwin is added - retroactive to when the surgery occurred - defer the decision, in other words, since other injuries could arise.

60 day DL can't be retroactive earlier than opening day. He would have to be inactive for the first 60 days of the regular season. But they could put him on the 60 day any time now to get the roster spot, if they wanted.

[howieramone2]

This is the greatest move since the Yankees bought George Herman Jr.

[LylesCrocodiles]

I will take either. Marwin with a 4 WAR. Or the starting 9 all with better WARs.

[ashbury]

60 day DL can't be retroactive earlier than opening day. He would have to be inactive for the first 60 days of the regular season. But they could put him on the 60 day any time now to get the roster spot, if they wanted.

Darn. My unpaid front office internship using Out Of The Park 19 lets me down in countless little ways.

[ashbury]

I will take either. Marwin with a 4 WAR. Or the starting 9 all with better WARs.

If Marwin was a serious 4-WAR candidate we wouldn't be having this discussion.

 

For one thing, Houston would have worked out a contract extension.