Article: BREAKING: Twins to Sign Versatile Marwin Gonzalez

[drivlikejehu]

 

Yes -- but it's still true that Gonzales does nothing for that ceiling (or I'd say, relatively little ).

 

This is not correct. For one thing, you simply are not accounting for the very real benefit in platoon splits that Gonzalez permits. Very few players play 162 games in a year, even when totally healthy. 

 

Even if every Twins starter is healthy and basically performs at the expected level or above, Gonzalez would improve a lineup spot by 15-20%+ in almost every game he plays.

 

If anything, Gonzalez' WAR would tend to understate his impact, because he could take up plate appearances that otherwise would have gone to below replacement level options. Cave, for instance, is clearly below replacement level against LHP (yet, 23% of his PAs last year were against LHP). 

 

That's another example of why your analysis is arithmetically wrong - looking at annual projections ignores the fact that Gonzalez will be replacing a particular portion of various players' performance. If he takes 10% of Kepler's PAs, Kepler will not lose 10% of his WAR - in fact, his WAR could easily *increase* because he was removed from particularly unfavorable matchups.

 

Once you understand where specifically that Gonzalez' PAs will come from, it is unequivocal that he will increase the Twins' expected wins, both "ceiling" and "floor."

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Gonzalez insures that any breakouts by the core players aren't wasted because the Twins didn't have enough quality depth.

Sure. But what are the odds of those breakouts? (I'd wager it would have to be multiple breakouts, to elevate us from 82 wins to serious postseason contention.) Those are roughly the same odds that Marwin Gonzalez's depth proves valuable.

[SomeGuy]

 

...and 3b and 2b and probably of.

If I got rid of anyone it would be Cron. He plays a position at least 5 other guys on the 40 man can play and isn’t guaranteed to be better offensively than any of them.

I still think Cron is the best option for 1st.  He might not be guaranteed to be the best 1B offensively but he is the best bet. 

 

Garver, Gonzalez, and Adrianza are probably the early favorites for the bench. 

[Joe A. Preusser]

I sure wish the Twins thought highly enough of Astudilli to take him north. Gonzales and Astudillo are so versatile between them, a 3 man bench is almost palatable.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is not correct. For one thing, you simply are not accounting for the very real benefit in platoon splits that Gonzalez permits. Very few players play 162 games in a year, even when totally healthy. 

 

Even if every Twins starter is healthy and basically performs at the expected level or above, Gonzalez would improve a lineup spot by 15-20%+ in almost every game he plays.

 

If anything, Gonzalez' WAR would tend to understate his impact, because he could take up plate appearances that otherwise would have gone to below replacement level options. Cave, for instance, is clearly below replacement level against LHP (yet, 23% of his PAs last year were against LHP). 

 

That's another example of why your analysis is arithmetically wrong - looking at annual projections ignores the fact that Gonzalez will be replacing a particular portion of various players' performance. If he takes 10% of Kepler's PAs, Kepler will not lose 10% of his WAR - in fact, his WAR could easily *increase* because he was removed from particularly unfavorable matchups.

 

Once you understand where specifically that Gonzalez' PAs will come from, it is unequivocal that he will increase the Twins' expected wins, both "ceiling" and "floor."

 

I don't disagree, that platoon benefits can theoretically provide more value.

 

But I don't think you've made a particularly strong case for the platoon benefit in this specific instance. Gonzalez isn't bad from either side, but he isn't particularly strong from either side either (104 wRC+ vs LHP, 101 vs RHP). And as for who he's replacing, Cave likely isn't playing much in 2019 anyway -- or if he is, we've got bigger problems than his short-side platoon partner! Kepler may not be that bad against LHP going forward, and even if he is, there are probably other ways to get a stronger platoon partner for him in RF than 104 wRC+ Gonzalez, perhaps at cheaper cost too.

 

And the "injury protection" benefit that Gonzalez provides will negate any modest platoon benefit too. Gonzalez can't take Kepler's spot in RF vs LHP if he's already subbing for Sano, who fell into Springfield's Mystery Spot.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I sure wish the Twins thought highly enough of Astudilli

"Astudilli"? We have more than one now?

[chpettit19]

 

I don't think they had to commit 2/21, today, to get most of what Gonzalez provides (a steady, average, predominantly corner player to pick up the slack later in the season where our original starting 9 might have faltered, if we're still in the race).

 

I think the lack of that $10.5-$21 mil could inhibit future moves, like a pricey Cole Hamels or Josh Donaldson coming available midseason. Or if we fall out of the race, we could even take on a bad contract to get an interesting prospect, like when the Braves acquired Bronson Arroyo a few years back or the Padres bought our draft pick last year. I know sometimes we think it shouldn't matter so much, but $10.5-$21 mil does matter to this club.

 

Zobrist was a much better player -- I'd take that, even if it wasn't as much of a bargain as Gonzalez. I think the LeMahieu contract was poor, and I'm glad the Twins didn't sign it -- Gonzalez's deal being better than LeMahieu's does not necessarily mean that Gonzalez's is good.

I think you're overestimating our "starting 9," and what 2019 baseball is like. Superstars/All-Stars play everyday. The rest of the league is interchangeable and matchup based. The Twins are finally getting into the modern game and have a manager who will (hopefully) be better at using the information at his disposal to mix and match his lineups to fit with that day's game. Go look at what the WS lineups looked like last year. And those are teams loaded with stars. They are mixed and matched and have certain guys, I.e. Pierce and Muncy, who hit in the heart of their orders, but only in platoon situations. There's no more "starting 9" in todays game. It's full 25 and 40 man rosters. The 10 day IL makes it even easier to use your entire 40 man roster as you can give a guy 10 days in the majors to fill in for somebody who's nicked up. Not even teams with lineups full of studs have a "starting 9" that is just penciled in each day. Cruz and Rosario are the only 2 Twins hitters who can even start to talk about being deserving of an everyday lineup spot. The rest are all mix and match until they establish that they're significantly better than the next guy. That is why you have to look at the payroll as being a big picture thing, and not just focus on this 1 contract. 

 

Do you have a specific player, and/or contract possibility, out there that you'd like to see the Twins sign right now that you think isn't going to happen because of this contract? If the team is competing at the trade deadline this contract isn't going to stop us from bringing in another player, not even Donaldson and the 12 or so mil he'll have left on his deal then. I think this FO has clearly established that they won't do any deal that will truly hinder their payroll flexibility.

[BK432]

In case anyone wants a national perspective, here's Jay Jaffe (tldr, he likes it and thinks the Twins got better).

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/twins-add-wins-with-marwin-gonzalez/

[bird]

 

There's a school of thought that would say this is 'good' for Gordon...potentially.

 

In a scenario where Adrianza is now NOT part of a 3-man bench...you may lose him. And the long-term (injury) replacement at shortstop in 2019 becomes Gordon.

 

 

It would be great if Gordon was ready for that call. If not, Torreyes can catch the flight and be okay for a stint.

[Shaitan]

It seems to me that Austin or, maybe, Adrianza are the only ones affected by this -- roster-wise. The only way he's taking ABs from anyone is if he's outperforming them, which is a good problem to have.

 

I thought Adrianza's defense dropped last year. If that's trending downward, this is a significant upgrade. A defensive specialist without the defense isn't very valuable.

 

[bird]

 

Edit to add: as I stated elsewhere, I see this a move that further solidifies our 82 win projection, but doesn't really add much to it.

 

I think we have to presume that this is the purpose of the move.

 

It's at best a Meh decision if it was meant to be needle-moving, but as a roster solidifier, this feels like a pretty nice benefit.

 

For the life of me, I just can't understand why anyone gives a rat's booty about the size of the guy's paycheck. This coming from someone who tends to be more understanding than most when it comes to managing contract risk.

 

[Mike Sixel]

Twins got a steal with Marwin at 2/21MM right?

Keith Law

5:23 Yes.....etc.....

[jtkoupal]

PREDICTION: By 2019's end, Miguel Sanó will play 1B regularly and Marwin will be getting the bulk of the reps at 3B.

 

I see Marwin being used at 2B in the early going, and I think that is a sign that they are not sold on Schoop. Furthermore, I think this signing is meant as Sanó insurance in case they need to move him to 1B, or worse.... eh, let's not talk about that. 

[dbminn]

 

Sure. But what are the odds of those breakouts? (I'd wager it would have to be multiple breakouts, to elevate us from 82 wins to serious postseason contention.) Those are roughly the same odds that Marwin Gonzalez's depth proves valuable.

 

I agree. IMO, the odds are very good a couple will break out this year, especially compared to the projections. Opinions may differ.

 

Twins have six everyday starters who will be between 25 and 27 years old. Three of them missed a lot of games last season. Looking at their individual past seasons, upside from the projections is not just theoretical. One or two may get hurt/slump but there is quality depth now.

 

On the pitching side, Pineda, Berrios, Rogers and May have room for more wins.

 

If there are no breakouts, the Twins ownership will still make lots of money. I can't find a downside to this deal.

 

PS - I wish they'd signed a very good RP for the money instead, but it didn't happen. 

[drivlikejehu]

 

I don't disagree, that platoon benefits can theoretically provide more value.

 

But I don't think you've made a particularly strong case for the platoon benefit in this specific instance. Gonzalez isn't bad from either side, but he isn't particularly strong from either side either (104 wRC+ vs LHP, 101 vs RHP). And as for who he's replacing, Cave likely isn't playing much in 2019 anyway -- or if he is, we've got bigger problems than his short-side platoon partner! Kepler may not be that bad against LHP going forward, and even if he is, there are probably other ways to get a stronger platoon partner for him in RF than 104 wRC+ Gonzalez, perhaps at cheaper cost too.

 

And the "injury protection" benefit that Gonzalez provides will negate any modest platoon benefit too. Gonzalez can't take Kepler's spot in RF vs LHP if he's already subbing for Sano, who fell into Springfield's Mystery Spot.

 

The small number of bench spots precludes bringing in platoon-only guys. Kepler has a career wRC+ of 61 against LHP. When Gonzalez starts against a LHP in his spot, it's like replacing Jorge Polanco in the lineup with Manny Machado.

 

Maybe that's not a big difference to you, I dunno. But the same basic thing will happen over and over again - Gonzalez will significantly boost the lineup most of the games that he starts in. 

 

Sure, he might wind up taking over one particular spot due to injury or ineffectiveness. Since the alternative would be an inferior player attempting to do the same, his value remains strong in that scenario as well.

 

The simple fact is that Gonzalez makes the team better (unless he gets hurt or tanks, of course). There is no scenario where Gonzalez plays decently yet adds no wins. It's impossible. 

 

Unless the Pohlad family was going to give you the money that instead went to Gonzalez, it's a no-brainer move.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As this thread's resident skeptic, I want to say I don't think this is a bad deal. I don't think there's an appreciably better player than Gonzalez available right now at this price. I don't think Gonzalez is going to collapse this year or anything.

 

Gonzalez does a lot of little things nicely -- he's a steady bat from both sides, he can capably fill in at a variety of positions.

 

But there's also a lot of little negatives about this deal. No, not necessarily with Gonzalez himself or his performance, but his context within this team. His clearest path to playing time is in a corner spot -- but we already have starters for those corner spots right now, and corner players are pretty cheap and not hard to acquire if we decide we need one down the road.

 

I don't think he's overpaid at 2/21, or that it's going to prevent us from landing a superstar down the line or anything, but it's definitely a resource that could matter for this club. If we are in the race in June again and need a reliever, are we going to hesitate if an expensive one comes available? Will we have to prioritize a SP acquisition over a RP midsummer? Will our needs unfold this season, such that they could be better met by a different mix of players, in part utilizing the $21 mil we guaranteed Gonzalez now?

 

Again, don't hate it. But like the Kepler extension, which had pro's and con's and I felt, on balance, I'd rather sign it than not -- this Gonzalez deal, on balance, I think I'd rather not sign it. That's all.

[bird]

 

You're right. I think too many commenters think that Marwin is an Escobar clone. He's not. He's not as versatile in the infield and is more of a corner outfielder when he plays OF.

 

My thought: he's a catch-all insurance policy for lots of players right now. Not just Sano.

 

 

I don't think he'll be used like Escobar, in large part because Escobar, by necessity, and because we lacked alternatives, became the injury replacement player you didn't have to book a flight for. I don't see Marwin filling in for any one player for a 30 day stint. We have people now. I think he'll be used more traditionally as a breather guy, just at more positions.

 

That said, I can't imagine them hesitating about throwing him at 3B once in awhile. I got a hunch we've seen worse.

[jorgenswest]

Hopefully at two years the Twins don’t pay for too much of the decline. If he can still play a passable SS a three man bench of Gonzalez, Astudillo and Garvin is the best in years.

 

I don’t see anyway Reed makes the team as a fourth OF now. I would remove him from the 40.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The simple fact is that Gonzalez makes the team better (unless he gets hurt or tanks, of course). There is no scenario where Gonzalez plays decently yet adds no wins. It's impossible. 

It's not impossible to find replacements at Gonzalez's projected performance level. The Twins did it just last season in the outfield with Jake Cave. They did it in the infield in 2014 with Eduardo Nunez, etc. You wouldn't necessarily project that fill-in to continue that performance indefinitely, but they can still provide for the term it is needed. Teams can also add corner players in midseason trades for less than 2/21.

 

Signing Gonzalez takes some uncertainty out of that, but my chief concern about the 2019 Twins is not necessarily the confidence I have in their fill-ins on opening day.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The small number of bench spots precludes bringing in platoon-only guys. Kepler has a career wRC+ of 61 against LHP. When Gonzalez starts against a LHP in his spot, it's like replacing Jorge Polanco in the lineup with Manny Machado.

 

Maybe that's not a big difference to you, I dunno. But the same basic thing will happen over and over again - Gonzalez will significantly boost the lineup most of the games that he starts in. 

Kepler's career platoon split was primarily compiled over age 23-24, in his first two years in the league. I would hope he is better at age 26-27 than that (and his age 25 split and contract extension suggest that is a possibility). Gonzalez could also easily be worse at age 30-31 than his previous career marks, further narrowing the gap. Plus, Kepler's contract extension suggests we will give him some leash toward achieving that goal of improving vs LHP -- I'd be surprised if they benched him aggressively vs LHP, especially early in the season. (Kepler has also graded well defensively in RF, and he's probably our top Buxton alternative in CF, further limiting the potential benefits.)

 

And that's all the factors complicating Gonzalez's supposed best platoon value opportunity here. It gets even murkier when you compare Rosario's .711 OPS or Schoop's .693 vs LHP to Gonzalez's .740, especially with Schoop's 2B defense. And we only faced 46 LH starters all last season. From the other side, as previously mentioned, Cron has no platoon split and is actually better for his career vs RHP than Gonzalez.

 

I'm still not seeing a strong case that Gonzalez's platoon advantages mean more than his overall projection suggests, in terms of value to this Twins team.

[Halsey Hall]

I don't get it. How many new faces are they going to sign.  And how many of these new faces will make the team?  Not all, for sure. I wonder about their confidence in some of these signings. This just seems to me to be a cover our asses for some that don't work out.  I doubt we win much if any more with Marwin.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

For the life of me, I just can't understand why anyone gives a rat's booty about the size of the guy's paycheck. This coming from someone who tends to be more understanding than most when it comes to managing contract risk.

I don't think anyone here is saying it's not a fair market deal. (Or at least, very few are saying it -- there's always that "one guy" and I should know because sometimes it's me )

 

But you don't think this team might hesitate about adding a player this summer, with $10-20 mil less room to spend? You don't think they might put themselves in a position where they have to choose between needed reinforcements at 2-3 spots, when they could have potentially added them all with $10-20 mil extra to spend? With $3-4 mil like Perez is guaranteed, yeah it's not a likely concern -- but there seems to be ample evidence that $10-20 mil can have an effect on how this franchise operates.

 

And you have to weigh that against whether the Twins necessarily needed to add a likely average corner player right now, even on a fair market deal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If he can still play a passable SS a three man bench of Gonzalez, Astudillo and Garvin is the best in years.

If Gonzalez displaces Adrianza, but not Astudillo, then I like this deal more.

 

But I suspect Adrianza could stick around as the "true" utility infielder, while Gonzalez is the everyday supersub, and Astudillo is hidden away from us at Rochester.

[Danchat]

Just thought I'd drop some notes on Gonzalez's fielding:

 

(all 2018 season) (I'm comparing Gonzalez to all other players who played 100+ innings at the position)

 

1B (176 innings)

UZR: 30th / 76

DRS: 23rd / 76

RNGR (range): 38th / 76

 

2B (183 innings)

UZR: 45th / 82

DRS: 32nd / 82

RNGR: 48th / 82

 

SS (269.2 innings)

UZR: 62nd / 68

DRS: 55th / 68

RNGR: 58th / 68

 

LF (533 innings)

UZR: 14th / 97

DRS: 9th / 97

RNGR: 25th / 97

 

Gonzalez barely played any 3B last year, so here's his 2017 numbers:

(138.2 innings)

UZR: 59th / 76

DRS: 40th / 76

RNGR: 53th / 76

 

 

So in summary, according to these stats, Gonzalez is a good defensively at LF & 1B, average at 2B, below average at 3B, and relatively bad at SS. I'm starting to think Adrianza might be safer than I originally thought, and I didn't realize he was graded so well in the outfield. Definitely bad news for Tyler Austin, though.

[Nine of twelve]

Haven't read 8 (8!) pages of comments yet, but thankfully I think this marks the end of the Adrianza era. At the very least now we don't have to listen to Gladden and Blyleven continually mispronounce Adrianza.

[joemama]

 

looks like a repeat of last offseason

Feels very different to me, especially from the perspective of clubhouse chemistry. LoMo was redundant (1B/DH only) and with a questionable rep, and MarGo provides coverage all over with a great rep. I love this move!

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't disagree, that platoon benefits can theoretically provide more value.

 

But I don't think you've made a particularly strong case for the platoon benefit in this specific instance. Gonzalez isn't bad from either side, but he isn't particularly strong from either side either (104 wRC+ vs LHP, 101 vs RHP). 

 

Why is a 104 wRC+ a point against him?  Among qualified players this is where that would rank in baseball:

 

1B: 17th Best

2B: 9th Best

3B: 16th Best

SS: 12th Best (Right behind Polanco if he had a full season)

LF: 18th Best (Right behind Rosario)

RF: 18th Best (Better than Kepler)

 

That's not garbage.  That's not a utility player.  That's a guy with a ton of versatility who slots in the middle to upper half of wRC+ for every position he can play last year. 

 

Context matters.  This reminds me of the "Adrianza sucks" thread where people didn't realize that a .750 OPS is a pretty good ballplayer in 2018.

[h2oface]

Love love love it. Now Kimbrel!

[jorgenswest]

Just thought I'd drop some notes on Gonzalez's fielding:

 

(all 2018 season) (I'm comparing Gonzalez to all other players who played 100+ innings at the position)

 

1B (176 innings)

UZR: 30th / 76

DRS: 23rd / 76

RNGR (range): 38th / 76

 

2B (183 innings)

UZR: 45th / 82

DRS: 32nd / 82

RNGR: 48th / 82

 

SS (269.2 innings)

UZR: 62nd / 68

DRS: 55th / 68

RNGR: 58th / 68

 

LF (533 innings)

UZR: 14th / 97

DRS: 9th / 97

RNGR: 25th / 97

 

Gonzalez barely played any 3B last year, so here's his 2017 numbers:

(138.2 innings)

UZR: 59th / 76

DRS: 40th / 76

RNGR: 53th / 76

 

 

So in summary, according to these stats, Gonzalez is a good defensively at LF & 1B, average at 2B, below average at 3B, and relatively bad at SS. I'm starting to think Adrianza might be safer than I originally thought, and I didn't realize he was graded so well in the outfield. Definitely bad news for Tyler Austin, though.

He has really only played LF. He has never started a game in CF or RF so playing him in LF means moving Rosario off of his best spot.

 

I like the flexibility they will have next offseason as they need to fill 2B. They can slot him in at 2B or they can slot him in at 3B and move Sano to 1B if Gordon or Arraez step up.

 

As for SS, the Astros did not start him very often later in the season. Instead after July 24 Bregman was most often moved to SS when Correia wasn’t in the line up. It is possible his utility will be as a 2B-3B-LF. Still valuable but not the guy he was two and three years ago.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Feels very different to me, especially from the perspective of clubhouse chemistry. LoMo was redundant (1B/DH only) and with a questionable rep, and MarGo provides coverage all over with a great rep. I love this move!

Hello - I answered upthread, but it reminds me of last offseason in the sense that they are signing players who expected bigger contracts at a discount after camp has started. Falvey said it was a mistake to do that last offseason, yet here we go again.

 

I don't mind Gonzalez, he just seems redundant. Or if Gonzalez is the guy, then these other pickups (Cron, Schoop) seem redundant.