Article: BREAKING: Twins to Sign Versatile Marwin Gonzalez

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Astros had Bregman-Correa-Altuve-Gurriel across their infield to start last year. They had Marisnik-Springer-Reddick across their outfield to start last year. Marwin still got 489 ABs for them last year.

Marwin also only required a 1 year, $5 mil contract last year, and was coming right off of a 146 OPS+ which suggested that perhaps his bat had taken a step forward.

 

Furthermore, the Astros had a $160 mil payroll, legitimate superstars at multiple positions, and were projected at 90+ wins and 90+% odds of reaching the postseason. Every single marginal win had more value for them than it does for a .500-ish team like the Twins.

 

The Astros using Gonzalez and getting value out of him in 2018 has little bearing on the Twins doing the same in 2019, especially when the Twins are spending more resources on him.

[bobs]

I LOVE THIS MOVE!!!  This guy is Sano protection.  This guy can play corner OF if Buxton flops/gets hurt, with Kepler or Rosario sliding to CF.  I love the flexibility he gives Baldelli without sacrificing offense.  He can cover for so many of the "what ifs" with the everyday lineup. 

I suspect Adrianza gets DFA'd.  I wish him well, but the Twins are better today than they were yesterday and that's a good thing.

[Riverbrian]

 

I think its more than that. He adds a little to the ceiling of the team, but what he really does is solidly the floor. We now have a guy who can play at a solid to above average level at several positions when guys get hurt, slump, etc. I think now instead of being a 75-90 win team (I know, I'm  an optimist at the top end), we're an 82-92 win team because he is able to play instead of Adrianza, Motter, etc. 

 

Exactly

 

This Twins team has managed to find the floor many many times and like Butch Cassidy said "It's the Floor that'll kill ya". 

 

 

[ND-Fan]

This is good signing for the Twins. If they would go out now and sign Kimbrel i would think they would have put forth a team that could win the central division this year. If the team would come together Sano and Buxton have exceptional years they could contend for American league title. I also would believe this would be sell to players they are in as front office and also would give them confidence in them as players. Also would help them in getting fans in believing they are in to win and not sitting waiting for it all to come together. I think this new managers influence with this front office and finally they are relizing they are needing to inverst in this team if going to be winner.

[bobs]

 

I don't get why anyone would be down on this signing. The biggest weakness of this roster before today was flexibility. We brought in one of the most positionally flexible players in MLB for a price that isn't going to hurt the payroll in any meaningful way. Oh, and he's a switch hitter so can give anyone on the field a day off anytime they need. It's a new era in baseball. Most guys aren't playing 160 games anymore. And at this point the Twins don't have anyone who's earned the right to demand they're out there every day (other than Cruz at DH). It's a long summer and there will be injuries and there will be guys who have bad years, or bad stretches. More depth is not a bad thing, ever. We are more talented now than when we woke up this morning. That's a good thing.

 

Do we need more pitching? Yes. Does making our position players better hurt our pitching? No. I don't get the posts after every signing complaining that "now we won't sign so and so." People were mad when we claimed Cron because then we couldn't sign a "proven MLB" player, but now we sign a proven MLB player who has a ring and can help show our young guys what it takes to be a champion and we're mad that we didn't sign him earlier? Just don't get the complaints about this signing at all. The day we bring in a Marwin type guy to replace a Trout type guy we can complain. He's not replacing anyone at this point. And anybody getting sent down because of this signing wasn't that great of a player to start with.

I would dare say THE most flexible player in MLB.  I love the move.  I bet Rocco does too.

[bighat]

LaVelle E. Neal just answered some Twitter questions regarding where/when Marwin plays. His response: "I think he's playing all the time, everywhere".

[Monkeypaws]

Everything I'm seeing and reading on sites that are not Twins Daily think the Twins did quite well with this signing: I think I agree.

 

Marwin is a pretty cool name as well.

[bighat]

 

This is a common sentiment, that Gonzalez is Sano insurance.

 

But it's worth noting that Gonzalez hasn't played much third base at all. Only 2 starts there last year. Only 62 starts total in his 7 year MLB career, never even reaching 20 in a single season. Even in the minors, he never played much 3B -- only 70 career starts there, mostly in rookie leagues as a teenager.

 

Some of that is obviously because he was playing shortstop in his earlier career, and I don't have any particular reason to doubt his ability to play third. But I'm not sure how much they expect him to play 3B (or if they do, that could call into question their signings at 1B or even 2B too -- we could have signed more flexible options at those spots, or simply planned on moving Sano to 1B).

 

You're right. I think too many commenters think that Marwin is an Escobar clone. He's not. He's not as versatile in the infield and is more of a corner outfielder when he plays OF.

 

My thought: he's a catch-all insurance policy for lots of players right now. Not just Sano.

[chpettit19]

 

Marwin also only required a 1 year, $5 mil contract last year, and was coming right off of a 146 OPS+ which suggested that perhaps his bat had taken a step forward.

 

Furthermore, the Astros had a $160 mil payroll, legitimate superstars at multiple positions, and were projected at 90+ wins and 90+% odds of reaching the postseason. Every single marginal win had more value for them than it does for a .500-ish team like the Twins.

 

The Astros using Gonzalez and getting value out of him in 2018 has little bearing on the Twins doing the same in 2019, especially when the Twins are spending more resources on him.

So the team with superstars found it worth having him around, but the team without superstars is too good for him? I really can't follow your logic. Is it simply because he's making $10 mil a year? 

 

I don't understand what you're seeing in your head as how this season goes. Do you think there's one of the 9 players you see as starters who is suddenly going to get 100 ABs because of this signing? There a minimum of 4374 ABs to hand out this year. Do you think handing 400 of those to Marwin is going to cripple the Twins season? What if Schoop doesn't bounce back to his 2017 season and is cut 2 months into the year? What if Sano gets hurt AGAIN? Or Buxton sucks AGAIN? Or Cron and Austin are both negative WAR players? Or Polanco gets hurt? 1 of those things very well may happen and I think it's rather nice to have Marwin around to step in.

 

They didn't bring him in to take someone's everyday spot. He's going to bounce around and give guys a rest. And you can "overspend" (as you seem to think this is) on a guy like Marwin for these 2 years when you have your "core" making less than they produce. It's what every smart team does.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Doesn't it make immense sense to sign a guy to provide insurance for injuries and underperformance? Every team, every year suffers from these things. Going into a season with 9 guys and saying "they're all starting 162 and hitting in this exact order and providing these exact stats" is a recipe for disaster. 

I never said that's my recipe. But we're committing perhaps ~9% of our payroll, for two years, for a guy who appears no better than any of our 9 starters. If one of those 9 gets hurt or underperforms, and we finish with 80 wins, does it really matter if we have Gonzalez already in the fold so we can finish with 82 wins? Cave or Adrianza or any number of guys could perhaps perform similarly too. I suspect the median projection is we're roughly an 82 win team with or without Gonzalez.

 

 

Marwin Gonzalez is a proven MLB player on a contract that doesn't hurt anything. I can't comprehend how adding a proven MLB player is a bad thing. It just doesn't make sense.

I never said it was a bad thing either. He improves the team -- just not that much, given what we already have. Like I said, I think this move solidifies our 82 win projection, raises our floor a bit -- but does relatively little at the top end. I'd prefer to plan on using these resources, and perhaps even the roster spot, to improve the top end more -- even if that improvement isn't available today.

[DocBauer]

Yes, I absolutely hope we have another pen addition before much longer. But this is smart! I've been strongly advocating a move like this for weeks, just never thought it would be Marwin.

 

I would much rather have a FO, manager and coaching staff trying to figure out how to keep 16 position players they like and want when there is only room for 13, rather than trying to find 13 and praying nobody gets hurt or performs poorly.

 

This same time last year nobody could know or predict the seasons/injuries/suspensions of Sano, Buxton, Polanco and Castro.[not to mention Dozier finally admitting to playing hurt all season]. I feel so much better about roster depth and flexibility now.

[LylesCrocodiles]

I love the González move. I’m guessing Duffey will be the 40 man move. And I prefer to keep Adrianza over Cave on the bench. Cave will not play much with González on the roster. And I’d rather have the defensively flexibility with Adrianza over the pop Cave provides.

[Tom Froemming]

 

I think its more than that. He adds a little to the ceiling of the team, but what he really does is solidly the floor. We now have a guy who can play at a solid to above average level at several positions when guys get hurt, slump, etc. I think now instead of being a 75-90 win team (I know, I'm  an optimist at the top end), we're an 82-92 win team because he is able to play instead of Adrianza, Motter, etc. 

This is an excellent way to look at it. You know you're going to deal with injuries, there's just no way of knowing where. Marwin will play regularly even when everyone is healthy, but he's able to step into so many spots should the need arise. Throw in the fact that his bat is platoon proof and this is a guy much more valuable to a team than you can gather by simply looking at his production, though that's nothing to sneeze at, either.

 

This is my favorite signing of the offseason, to be honest.

 

As far as roster moves go, Michael Reed is out of options and it's pretty much impossible to see him cracking the Opening Day roster. Might as well remove him from the 40 man now. I'd have to think Marwin would likely take Adrianza's spot on the 25-man roster if everyone heads into the season healthy, but much like what they're doing with Tyler Austin, might as well keep him around for now in case an injury creates a need.

[lecroy24fan]

I thought Marwin would get 3/$39M at the start of FA and am thrilled the Twins got him for less. This is a really smart move. It's nice to have 10-11 guys that probably should play everyday.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Could we not sign a Starting Pitcher for 2 year 20 mill???  Pitching is still needed. Not a insurance policy for Sano.  Not a waste, but I'd rather see a pitcher. 

Who? That deal won't get you any better than say Pineda, who is our 4th starter. 

 

[twinkiesfan11]

Great signing. I wonder if this sets the stage for a much more fluid situation regarding defensive positioning and lineups. I keep picturing something along the lines of what the Dodgers have done the past couple of seasons. Idea being to carry a group of versatile position players rather than fixed positions to allow for matchup based lineups. Kind of a depth chart approach.

 

C - Castro/Garver/Astudillo

1B - Gonzalez/Sano/Kepler

2B - Schoop/Gonzalez/Polanco

3B - Sano/Astudillo/Gonzalez

SS - Polanco/Gonzalez/Schoop

RF - Kepler/Cave/Gonzalez

CF - Buxton/Kepler/Cave

LF - Rosario/Cave/Gonzalez

DH - Cruz/Sano/All

 

This leaves room for 13 pitchers. The “bench” is fluid, literally changes daily based on matchups and rest. Also leaves no room for Cron.

[RaoulDuke]

I like this move a lot.  The team as constructed is betting on a lot of bounce back and improvement, Marwin covers a ton of gaps when that plan inevitably fails somewhere.

 

Tortuga starts in the minors, Austin gotta be gone, it comes down to Cave/ Adrianza.  Cave is a much more promising player and a nice backup to Buxton but Adrianza is the only guy on the roster that can really be a plus defender at short.  I prefer to keep cave but I think they will probably go with the defense. 

 

Sign Keuchel or Kimbrel and lets make a real attempt at the central!

[ScooterDance]

Keep reading that this solidifies our floor but does nothing to our ceiling.

 

Our ceiling will be dictated by Berrios Rosario Sano Buxton Kepler etc. if they take leaps to star / superstar our ceiling is high.

[chpettit19]

 

I never said that's my recipe. But we're committing perhaps ~9% of our payroll, for two years, for a guy who appears no better than any of our 9 starters. If one of those 9 gets hurt or underperforms, and we finish with 80 wins, does it really matter if we have Gonzalez already in the fold so we can finish with 82 wins? Cave or Adrianza or any number of guys could perhaps perform similarly too. I suspect the median projection is we're roughly an 82 win team with or without Gonzalez.

 

 

I never said it was a bad thing either. He improves the team -- just not that much, given what we already have. Like I said, I think this move solidifies our 82 win projection, raises our floor a bit -- but does relatively little at the top end. I'd prefer to plan on using these resources, and perhaps even the roster spot, to improve the top end more -- even if that improvement isn't available today.

So you think they're going to miss out on a difference making player because of his 2/21 contract? I don't think they're sitting in ST right now saying "dang, we could've signed Keuchel or Kimbrel if it wasn't for Marwin taking up 9% of our payroll." You have to look at the big picture. The hope is Byron and Miguel finally hit their ceilings and become the stars they were supposed to be. At that point you have 2 studs making less than they "should" based on their production. I think Marwin earns every penny of that $21 mil from his on field performance, the flexibility he provides Rocco, his clubhouse presence, and a myriad of other things, but even if he doesn't his contract won't be what sinks this team. He's not coming in to be the star and he isn't being paid like he is. 

 

Ben Zobrist signed a 4 year, $56 mil deal at the age of 35. Marwin is the poor man's Zobrist and is on a shorter contract for less money/year. DJ LeMahieu just signed for 2/24 after playing in Coors his whole career and being nothing but a high BA guy and good defender at 2nd. He provides no positional flexibility, and no power. Marwin got a deal that is right in line with who he is. This is what the MLB market has determined productive, but not All-Star level, players are worth. If you think his 10.5 a year for 2 is going to cripple this team you must have no hope at all that the Twins will ever compete.

[scottz]

 

I thought Marwin would get 3/$39M at the start of FA and am thrilled the Twins got him for less. This is a really smart move. It's nice to have 10-11 guys that probably should play everyday.

I think the last sentence here is the key. Many commenters who are less than thrilled with this move seem to be coming from a place where they see our roster as 9 everyday starters and 3 (or 4) coming off the bench. I think what the FO is attempting to do is to build a roster than allows flexibility to start your best 9 given the situation of the day.

 

I think we are going to see at least 11 "regulars," significant in-game subbing and shifting, and creative strategies and line-ups. A player like Gonzalez (or to a lesser positional degree, Astudillo, even if he's a call away in Rochester) will only help. It's not that over 162 games Gonzalez is better than (pick your favorite Twin), it's that in certain situations, he's much better than (your favorite Twin).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So the team with superstars found it worth having him around, but the team without superstars is too good for him? I really can't follow your logic.

There are a number of factors I'm seeing here. Sorry if I'm not being clear. I'll try to focus here on this point.

 

First off, Marwin Gonzalez looks to be a ~2 WAR player. Flexible, but average when and where he does play.

 

If you have better players, like the 2018 Astros, there's danger than a single injury could knock off 4+ wins and cause serious problems. Or even if a non-star underperforms and provides zero WAR, those 1-2 wins could be the difference between making the postseason or not, or homefield/advancement, etc. The value of each marginal win is higher for a projected 90+ win team like the 2018 Astros.

 

On the other hand, a team like the Twins, without any superstars -- losing any one player to injury isn't likely to cost you more than 2 wins -- a difference that could be made up by the AAAA or bench player du jour (like Cave 2018). And with an 82 win projection -- frankly, losing a win or two probably isn't going to make a difference anyway. We need more difference-makers before a flexible, average guy like Marwin Gonzalez becomes a likely difference-maker himself. We can come up with specific scenarios where Gonzalez is more important, but on average, he isn't.

 

Hence, I'm in no rush to commit resources to Marwin Gonzalez (and a two year, $21 million deal represents a significant resource for this club -- as well as the roster spot, if Gonzalez takes a spot alongside Adrianza instead of replacing him).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Keep reading that this solidifies our floor but does nothing to our ceiling.

Our ceiling will be dictated by Berrios Rosario Sano Buxton Kepler etc. if they take leaps to star / superstar our ceiling is high.

Yes -- but it's still true that Gonzales does nothing for that ceiling (or I'd say, relatively little ).

[Mike Sixel]

Each individual win is way more valuable to an 82-84 win team than to a 95 win team. Way more.

[ahart10]

Does Marwin start on opening day? If so, who sits? Kepler, Buxton, Schoop, Sano, Cron?

[LylesCrocodiles]

Marwins career ops is better than Buxton Schoop and Kepler. Almost the same as Polanco. And a little behind Rosario. So he should make the team better most days when he is in the lineup. And I’m guessing he starts 4 days a week all over the diamand.

[bird]

 

I want to see a game this year where the Twins do a double Caesar Tovar. Gonzalez AND Astudillo play all 9 positions in the same game.

 

 

Love this idea! In a way...

 

Just to add to the thrill, do it in late September when clinging to a half game lead in the division. You know, for fun. 

[dbminn]

 

Yes -- but it's still true that Gonzales does nothing for that ceiling (or I'd say, relatively little ).

 

Gonzalez insures that any breakouts by the core players aren't wasted because the Twins didn't have enough quality depth.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So you think they're going to miss out on a difference making player because of his 2/21 contract? I don't think they're sitting in ST right now saying "dang, we could've signed Keuchel or Kimbrel if it wasn't for Marwin taking up 9% of our payroll." You have to look at the big picture. The hope is Byron and Miguel finally hit their ceilings and become the stars they were supposed to be. At that point you have 2 studs making less than they "should" based on their production. I think Marwin earns every penny of that $21 mil from his on field performance, the flexibility he provides Rocco, his clubhouse presence, and a myriad of other things, but even if he doesn't his contract won't be what sinks this team. He's not coming in to be the star and he isn't being paid like he is. 

 

Ben Zobrist signed a 4 year, $56 mil deal at the age of 35. Marwin is the poor man's Zobrist and is on a shorter contract for less money/year. DJ LeMahieu just signed for 2/24 after playing in Coors his whole career and being nothing but a high BA guy and good defender at 2nd. He provides no positional flexibility, and no power. Marwin got a deal that is right in line with who he is. This is what the MLB market has determined productive, but not All-Star level, players are worth. If you think his 10.5 a year for 2 is going to cripple this team you must have no hope at all that the Twins will ever compete.

I don't think they had to commit 2/21, today, to get most of what Gonzalez provides (a steady, average, predominantly corner player to pick up the slack later in the season where our original starting 9 might have faltered, if we're still in the race).

 

I think the lack of that $10.5-$21 mil could inhibit future moves, like a pricey Cole Hamels or Josh Donaldson coming available midseason. Or if we fall out of the race, we could even take on a bad contract to get an interesting prospect, like when the Braves acquired Bronson Arroyo a few years back or the Padres bought our draft pick last year. I know sometimes we think it shouldn't matter so much, but $10.5-$21 mil does matter to this club.

 

Zobrist was a much better player -- I'd take that, even if it wasn't as much of a bargain as Gonzalez. I think the LeMahieu contract was poor, and I'm glad the Twins didn't sign it -- Gonzalez's deal being better than LeMahieu's does not necessarily mean that Gonzalez's is good.

[yarnivek1972]

Except that Adrianza is far better with the glove at SS.

 

...and 3b and 2b and probably of.

 

If I got rid of anyone it would be Cron. He plays a position at least 5 other guys on the 40 man can play and isn’t guaranteed to be better offensively than any of them.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Each individual win is way more valuable to an 82-84 win team than to a 95 win team. Way more.

Each win? Like, a single win? Depends on context, no? The 95 win Cubs last year, adding a single win would have meant avoiding a game 163 and the wild card game. A single win would have ultimately meant nothing for all of the 82-84 win teams in baseball last year. For those teams, each win is only really valuable as part of a cumulative increase to 88-90 wins or so.