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Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: #1 Royce Lewis


Seth Stohs

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We have spent the last two weeks counting down the Twins Daily Top 20 Minnesota Twins prospects heading into the 2019 season. Today, we arrive at #1. It will surprise no one that shortstop Royce Lewis fits the top spot. The first overall pick in the 2017 draft had a strong 2018 season between Cedar Rapids. He didn’t turn 19 until early June. He is a consensus Top 10 prospect among national publications. This weekend, he will report to Ft. Myers for his first big-league spring training.

 

All of that, and it is important to note that it was not an easy decision for any of the voters. Alex Kirilloff had an incredible return to the diamond in 2018, putting up some of the best offensive numbers in all of minor league baseball. Brusdar Graterol has a triple-digit fastball and potentially three above-average pitches. He could give the Twins a true ace in the not-too-distant future. The Twins drafted a College World Series hero in the first round in 2018, and he had a solid professional debut.

 

The Twins have a Top 5 minor league system, so it is meaningful and well-considered that we continue to rank Royce Lewis as the #1 Twins prospect. Below you will find out more about the future star. Hopefully you have enjoyed this Top 20 series and have renewed hope that there are several future stars in the system. With this information, we certainly encourage you to share your thoughts on Lewis, but also consider how you would rank the Twins top prospects.Age: 19 (DOB: 6-5-1999)

2018 Stats (Low-A/High-A): .292/.352/.451 (.803), 29-2B, 14-HR, 28/36 SB

ETA: 2020

2018 Ranking: 1

 

National Top 100 Rankings

BA: 9 |MLB: 5 | ESPN: 9 |BP: 8 |FG: 6

 

 

What’s To Like

 

A lot. To show that, let’s take a look at where Lewis is in terms of the standard scouting tools (Hit, Hit for Power, Speed, Defense, Arm) and then add some more.

 

HIT - Lewis has a good approach at the plate. While he generally knows the strike zone and doesn’t extend too much, he also is aggressive inside the zone. He stands at the plate, relaxed, and as the pitcher begins his delivery, he uses a big leg kick/lift. However, as you can see from the below picture, he remains very balanced. In the next photo, you can see that as his front foot touches the ground, his hands are ready to explode to the pitch and his weight transfers.

 

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50-50 as a September call up?

 

There is zero reason for him (or Kirilloff) to be solely a September call up... Since they don't have to be added to the 40-man for another year (or two in Lewis's case), using that spot for September doesn't make sense). However, if they are in contention in July/August, and those two are at a point where they believe that they can contribute, call them up. 

 

So, I think it's more of a 1% chance that Lewis is up in 2019. I would put it at about 15-20% for Kirilloff. 

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Tell you what- I've never seen him except on highlights, but everything I read about him sounds just like The Captain. My gosh, they're practically the same size, they even have a similar (dang handsome- yes, I'm jealous) look.

 

Except this time, he'd be playing for the forces of good, instead of evil.

 

I'm even more excited about this kid than I was about Bux at the same point.

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Half a career at short. Half a career in center. If he wants to turn into Robin Yount, I'd be okay with that. 

 

When thinking about this kid I keep thinking about Robin Yount also, although Yount didn't have Lewis' speed.  Won't go back and look, but Yount was up when he was still 18, wasn't he?

 

Also, Seth, love how these are presented with the 'blue style baseball card look.'

 

Can we please fast forward to late 2020 or early 2021 when all five of these top five are playing at Target Field.  Really am kind of giddy thinking about them in a Twins uniform.

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Put up a good season along with Alex, and they could be #1 and #2 prospects in baseball next year?

 

Certainly seems possible to me.  All of the guys ahead of them on MLB.com's list are likely to exceed their rookie limits this year.  Probably not all of them will but each would be expected to individually.  So if they both perform, yeah maybe.

 

 

 

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Half a career at short. Half a career in center. If he wants to turn into Robin Yount, I'd be okay with that. 

 

 

I wonder if they give him some reps in center this year just to give him a little flexibility.  It seems like positional flexibility is starting to come back into vogue a bit these days.  Having a guy that can play multiple up the middle positions would be exciting.  And it could help him get in the lineup regularly when he comes up, even if he sticks at short long term.

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Half a career at short. Half a career in center. If he wants to turn into Robin Yount, I'd be okay with that. 

 

Wait, so you want him to start his career at short and then move to CF halfway in as he's aging and (theoretically) his range would start to deteriorate? 

 

Personally, think Royce's most likely move as his career goes on would be to move from SS to 3B but that's a decade plus down the road.

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Looking at the strengths of the farm system overall, the top two is obviously among the best in baseball.  It'd be easy to take Vladito and Bichette over Lewis and Kirilloff just on the strength of Vlad, but after that they can go toe-to-toe with any other team's top two.

 

The rest of the top 5 still match up well against the rest of the league.

 

It'd be fair to be underwhelmed with the back half of the top 10 though.  There are a lot of question marks or guys that are still looking to break out.  Looking just at 6-10 they'd probably be below average.

 

However, outside the top 10 the depth is better than I can remember from any year since I've really been following closely (2011 or 2012). I think the 11-25ish slots are nearly interchangeable and they all are just a good season away from looking like a solid top-10 prospect or being a contributing piece in the majors.  There are plenty of guys even outside the top 25 that seem like we'd be talking about more in other years with a weaker system.

 

Case in point: Luke Raley, who's numbers in AA really don't look all that different from Rooker's.  Most years he'd probably have to be somewhere in the top 20 based on the fact that he seems to be able to hit even if his athleticism is questioned and he doesn't have a defensive home.  This year there are enough exciting athletes in the system that he's kind of an afterthought in the 25-30 range for most.

 

I don't have a very good handle on the depth of other teams' systems, I know the Padres and Rays have crazy depth all the way down their systems, but beyond that I have to think the Twins' depth is probably only exceeded by a couple other teams.  Which along with Lewis and Kirilloff make it a pretty exciting farm system.

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Looking at the strengths of the farm system overall, the top two is obviously among the best in baseball.  It'd be easy to take Vladito and Bichette over Lewis and Kirilloff just on the strength of Vlad, but after that they can go toe-to-toe with any other team's top two.

Tor- Vlad and Bo

Hou - Whitley and Tucker

SD - Tatis and Gore

Cin - Senzel and Trammell

CHW - Kopech and Jimenez

 

I would agree with you besides Toronto, I don't think I would trade the Twins top 2 for any of the other.

San Diego has a ton of prospects, which explains why they might be meeting with Manny again, don't sleep on the Braves they have a bunch as well.

 

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I am excited, but I was excited about Sano and Buxton and Berrios a few years back so I am moderating my excitement.  Tell me why we should see a better transition for our top 3.  The rest of the top 20 are just an assortment of players and have a lot to prove before they provide expectations. 

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Seems everything you hear about this kid is that he's got the entire package from the mental/emotional/maturity standpoint. The kind of player where if he's an average hitter, he's going to be very valuable, if he's a better than average hitter he's a perennial all-star, and if he's a top-end hitter...well, be still my heart.

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When thinking about this kid I keep thinking about Robin Yount also, although Yount didn't have Lewis' speed.  Won't go back and look, but Yount was up when he was still 18, wasn't he?

 

Also, Seth, love how these are presented with the 'blue style baseball card look.'

 

Can we please fast forward to late 2020 or early 2021 when all five of these top five are playing at Target Field.  Really am kind of giddy thinking about them in a Twins uniform.

 

Yes -- 18. 

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Wait, so you want him to start his career at short and then move to CF halfway in as he's aging and (theoretically) his range would start to deteriorate? 

 

Personally, think Royce's most likely move as his career goes on would be to move from SS to 3B but that's a decade plus down the road.

 

He can play wherever he wants if he ends up with 77.3 career WAR as a one-franchise (ours) player.  :jump:  :go:

 

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And if it's not a sore spot for people, I'd even let him bat leadoff and play 2B if he so desires and if he puts up Yount-like numbers.  :)

Remembering back to those Brewers teams, Yount had a partner in Paul Molitor.  Could we have some of the same with Lewis-Javier?  

 

I know lots of people have been hammering away at the new FO, but I for one like what they are doing. No, they aren't throwing gas on the fire to get it done overnight.  But there is something good about a steady approach towards turning this team into one of the best in baseball...year after year after year.  

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I know lots of people have been hammering away at the new FO, but I for one like what they are doing. No, they aren't throwing gas on the fire to get it done overnight.  But there is something good about a steady approach towards turning this team into one of the best in baseball...year after year after year.  

Couldn't you say the same thing in 2013, when the prospects list was Sano, Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Gibson, Meyer, Rosario, May, Kepler, Polanco and others?

and yet they haven't been one of the best teams in baseball year after year, let alone if one year.

I love me prospects, but that is all they are until they fail or make it, there is no guarantee of anything. (Well except most will fail to live up to expecations)

 

 

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Couldn't you say the same thing in 2013, when the prospects list was Sano, Hicks, Arcia, Buxton, Gibson, Meyer, Rosario, May, Kepler, Polanco and others?

and yet they haven't been one of the best teams in baseball year after year, let alone if one year.

I love me prospects, but that is all they are until they fail or make it, there is no guarantee of anything. (Well except most will fail to live up to expecations)

Yes, you could.  But something feels different this time, at least to me.

 

There seems to be a continual emphasis on strengthening the system.  Not just all the moves they did last July, but the continual moves that haven't made big splashes.  You know, moves like bringing Pearson in last spring, and others.  Seems like they have a plan and are working it.  To me, that's how building a successful organization will happen.

 

It appears to me that they also have been more successful in the past couple drafts, although I will agree we won't know for several years.  It also helps to be drafting high, however, their management of the signing pool two years ago was beautiful to watch...getting Enlow and others after making the surprise pick of Lewis, who just may turn out to be the best choice of all.

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Wasn't all this said about Buxton? 

 

Hope Royce crushes it this year, but I think there is more reason to be optimistic about Kirilloff than Lewis. Time will tell.  Hope the guy crushes it and forces the hands of Falvey and Levine, or I'd package him for a dynamite starting pitcher.  Proven MLB'ers > prospects 

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