Article: Report: Twins, Kepler Finalizing Extension

[Mike Sixel]

This assumes that everyone in the current squad has already reached the prime, which is not a good assumption

 

As a matter of fact both Kepler's and Polanco's contracts take care of their prime years.

 

Pitching is a different story and indeed they will likely need to add a starter or two at some point to be competitive this post-season. If all goes well, I hope it is by this trading deadline.

No such assumption was made at all.

[nicksaviking]

 

If my math is right. The Twins just purchased one year of free agency and potentially a 2nd year. He should be 32 when he becomes a free agent. 

 

I believe it's a good gamble and I'm happy for Max. 

 

I'm just going to continue my perpetual hope that the Front Office recognizes the gamble for what it is and understands that the money being paid is the cost of doing business and is therefore fully prepared to not go down with the ship... if the ship goes down. 

 

If Kepler is hitting below average and still playing all 162 games just to try and justify the extension by forcing it... It will be a bad move. 

 

If Kepler is hitting below average but they allow someone else to surpass him for playing time despite the millions owed. I will be OK with the extension because... they took a shot. They rolled the dice and they can try again next year and the money does not bankrupt them. 

 

Extensions are fine... as long as the organization doesn't allow an extension to kill your team if it doesn't work out. 

 

With that said... Go Get EM MAX!!!

 

I'd be more worried about them trying to shoehorn him into the lineup to justify his salary if he didn't show to be a pretty good CF last year. More often than not there will likely always be room for him even if he's just platooning. Also, if a guy can play decent CF, you can usually move him even if you have to eat a bit of the contract.

 

If Polanco doesn't hit and his SS skills don't improve, I'd think he'd be the guy to worry about.

[scottz]

Congratulations, Max. Be wise with your money.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

What is important is that Kepler is making significantly more than Polanco in his deal and I just don't get that

 

Max Kepler was projected to make 3.2M in arbitration in 2019. Polanco wasn't even arbitration eligible. 

 

So Kepler is probably getting about a 50-80% raise? Polanco will be getting about a 600% raise.

[mikelink45]

Okay, but looking ahead - Kiriloff, Larnach and we have four good outfielders if Buxton does anything, so what is the plan?  Does this make Max more tradeable?

[Miggy's Little Helper]

 

This is the smart way to spend money - get guys on the way up for pennies on the dollar compared to big name free agents. 5 years of Kepler > 1 year of Harper, and >> than your average 30 year old 20 million dollar free agent.

 

I don't think anyone really disagrees that this is a safer route.  But the idea that 5 years of Kepler is better than 1 year of Harper is not correct.  Harper is very, very likely to be a much better baseball player than Kepler over the next 10 years.  Yes, he'll cost more, but teams can only play one RF.  Harper > Kepler.  

 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

I hear people talking about the front-loading aspect, but I can't find the details?  What does the structure look like per year?

[Rigby]

 

Evidently we believe in this core afterall. Time to bring in Bryce Harper and put the boot on the AL Central's neck for not 1, not 2, not 3...

Does seem a bit inconsistent with their stated "wait and see" approach and reluctance to add high end talent to the roster.

[dbminn]

Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs has posted a solid article on the reasons the Twins - and other teams - are high on Kepler's future. Here's an extended quote:

 

"It’s easy to grow impatient. It’s easy to have grown impatient with a number of Twins players, for that matter. But...

 

Teams continued to call the Twins, inquiring as to Kepler’s availability. The Twins never formally put him in a trade. Other teams still see a breakout candidate. The Twins still see a breakout candidate. There seems to be something of an industry consensus, and it’s not a tough thing to explain."

[MMMordabito]

 

I don't think anyone really disagrees that this is a safer route.  But the idea that 5 years of Kepler is better than 1 year of Harper is not correct.  Harper is very, very likely to be a much better baseball player than Kepler over the next 10 years.  Yes, he'll cost more, but teams can only play one RF.  Harper > Kepler.  

 

True, but if you pay Harper $30-35 mill per annum in the Twins market, then you have to get by with pre-arbs and retreads around a good portion of the rest of the diamond to afford him.  Kepler's deal allows for more balance, and it also isn't an immovable object or uneatable meal, if it doesn't work out.

[MMMordabito]

 

I hear people talking about the front-loading aspect, but I can't find the details?  What does the structure look like per year?

 

Miller stated he was getting his salary doubled in year one, so that would be $6.25 mill ... That leaves 4/$28.75mill the rest of the way, which means the raises would have to be modest until the option year. 

 

I'd like to see it spelled out as well though.

[Seth Stohs]

Jeff Sullivan from FanGraphs writes: Max Kepler did not bet on himself.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/max-kepler-didnt-bet-on-himself/

 

 

[redstorm]

 

I hear people talking about the front-loading aspect, but I can't find the details?  What does the structure look like per year?

 

Just for a visualization, basing it off the Miller tweet referenced in the article (6.25M this year, small raises each year and a $10M option for 2024), probably something like this. Disclaimer, this is my estimation and not the official numbers.

 

2019: $6,250,000
2020: $6,500,000
2021: $6,850,000
2022: $7,400,000
2023: $8,000,000
2024: $10,000,000 (with $1M buyout)

Edited February 14, 2019 by redstorm

[Riverbrian]

I'd be more worried about them trying to shoehorn him into the lineup to justify his salary if he didn't show to be a pretty good CF last year. More often than not there will likely always be room for him even if he's just platooning. Also, if a guy can play decent CF, you can usually move him even if you have to eat a bit of the contract.

 

If Polanco doesn't hit and his SS skills don't improve, I'd think he'd be the guy to worry about.

After last year... I worry about everybody.

[Riverbrian]

Completely agree. I'm not sold on Kepler being able to hit MLB pitching given his first 3 years. This deal is still worth doing to lock him up without overpaying him as long as they aren't afraid to sit him if he doesn't produce and/or Cave turns out to be better (like he was last year). For some reason, I'm optimistic that the new FO/manager team will be willing to let performance rule so I think this is a great idea and a great deal. Now lock up Berrios!

My wish is this From your fingertips to the eyeballs of the front office.

[Danchat]

Okay, but looking ahead - Kiriloff, Larnach and we have four good outfielders if Buxton does anything, so what is the plan? Does this make Max more tradeable?

I think this makes Max more tradeable as he now comes with more years of control. Who knows where we’ll be in a couple years, but this logjam is fine to me. If the rookies come up swinging, we have depth to trade from.

[Blake]

 

YAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSS

 

THEY EVEN FRONT-LOADED A BIT!

 

My grumpiness over the offseason is decreasing exponentially.

 

Keep it coming, boys. Don't stop at Polanco and Kepler.

Yep.

[Dman]

 

I think this makes Max more tradeable as he now comes with more years of control. Who knows where we’ll be in a couple years, but this logjam is fine to me. If the rookies come up swinging, we have depth to trade from.

 

I agree that if Kiroloff, Larnach, and Wade or Badoo step up then something is going to have give.

 

However, If Max starts hitting as some scouts predict then he would be very tough to replace in right field.  He is one of the best right fielders in Baseball right now and if hits like 270-280\330-350 and 20 or more homers per year it wouldn't make sense to move\trade him as he would be one of the best right fielders in baseball.  That hit tool is still a question mark but we will get another season to see if he can break out.  

 

If he can't become a better hitter then he doesn't look too bad as a center fielder option so maybe then they trade him.  Hard to say what the future holds but given what I have been reading my money is on Max improving this year.

[Jham]

I agree that if Kiroloff, Larnach, and Wade or Badoo step up then something is going to have give.

 

However, If Max starts hitting as some scouts predict then he would be very tough to replace in right field. He is one of the best right fielders in Baseball right now and if hits like 270-280\330-350 and 20 or more homers per year it wouldn't make sense to move\trade him as he would be one of the best right fielders in baseball. That hit tool is still a question mark but we will get another season to see if he can break out.

 

If he can't become a better hitter then he doesn't look too bad as a center fielder option so maybe then they trade him. Hard to say what the future holds but given what I have been reading my money is on Max improving this year.

Personally, I don't think Kepler's defense (metrics a product of sss) is sustainable even if his offense improves. Maybe I'm wrong, but i think a full season of Cf would expose him as an adequate to good corner outfielder. That's just my opinion.

[Jham]

True, but if you pay Harper $30-35 mill per annum in the Twins market, then you have to get by with pre-arbs and retreads around a good portion of the rest of the diamond to afford him. Kepler's deal allows for more balance, and it also isn't an immovable object or uneatable meal, if it doesn't work out.

You don't "have" to do anything. You can expand payroll with a pretty darn good excuse: Harper's aren't available for just cash almost ever. Big dogs not hard in pursuit. Controlled core still cheap with another wave coming. Having Harper for 2 waves rather than 1 isn't bad.

 

Imagine if we traded Buxton Rosie AND Kep for prospects. And we started Harper, Cave, and Garver. (for example) Conceivably we upgrade 3 different line up spots. (lose some on d). Then next year we add in AK and Rooker on Rookie deals. And remember, we probably got 5 ot 6 future big leaguers waiting from trading the current OF. Also, we don't have to do all these moves now. We can keep Buxton or Rosie or Kep for another year and

 

You can try to do the math on cost. But which outfield do you like best out of those options?

Edited February 15, 2019 by Jham

[sweetmusicviola16]

With both of these extensions the Twins essentially have most all of these players prime years.

 

Keep them coming Falvine.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

You don't "have" to do anything. You can expand payroll with a pretty darn good excuse: Harper's aren't available for just cash almost ever. Big dogs not hard in pursuit. Controlled core still cheap with another wave coming. Having Harper for 2 waves rather than 1 isn't bad.

Imagine if we traded Buxton Rosie AND Kep for prospects. And we started Harper, Cave, and Garver. (for example) Conceivably we upgrade 3 different line up spots. (lose some on d). Then next year we add in AK and Rooker on Rookie deals. And remember, we probably got 5 ot 6 future big leaguers waiting from trading the current OF. Also, we don't have to do all these moves now. We can keep Buxton or Rosie or Kep for another year and

You can try to do the math on cost. But which outfield do you like best out of those options?

I have no desire to see a Harper,Cave, Garver OF. Buxton, Rosario, Harper, Yes. Let Max know that he will need a 1B's glove this year. Dump Cron instead. I value D too much. Kepler has a fair bit of 1B play in the minors.

 

But I agree. A Harper or Machado under the present circumstance might be a long time before it is seen again.

[HrbieFan]

Love Max's swing! Now it is time for him to be a bit more aggressive at the plate. He is set for the rest of his life, now go out and have some fun

[Otwins]

I hope that they are able to extend Berrios, Rosario, Buxton and Sano. Not all the extensions will work out but they will average out. My objective would be to extend the time this group of players are with the Twins so the next group can arrive and supplement this core. At that point we may actually have some quality surplus to trade and enough depth to be a legitimate playoff team.

[twinstalker]

I think the flatness of the contract is a reflection of the Twins current (lack of) spending and also of Kirilloff looming. Somebody in the outfield will likely have to go by 2021, and it could be Rosario, with Kepler moving to LF. It could be Buxton with Kepler perhaps moving to CF. And it could be Kepler himself. His trade chip becomes more valuable with money being placed on the front end.

 

As for 1B, I don't think that's a long term plan for Kepler at this point. He's a guy you could sell high as a CF, so why would you chain him to 1B? He might play there a little bit as you try to fit four or five OFers into a lineup here and there, but that doesn't seem efficient or optimal for an extended period.

 

My gut told me Kepler was verging on a breakout this past season, and the FanGraphs articles put quantification to that. I'd been worried all winter that the Twins were going to trade an emerging stud, so I'm happier with this announcement than I am with Polanco's, though I think that's reasonable, too. He's just not a shortstop, and I have doubts the Twins will be picking up those option years when he's a 30/31 yr old 2B. Javier (pushing Lewis to 2B) or Severino or Unknown will be a lot cheaper option with maybe the same production. But the beauty is that we're covered if Polanco is indeed at another level come those years. Good job, Twins!

[ND-Fan]

I have been very critical of this front office but this is positive step in my opinion for the Twins finally they are putting in place core of players that they can start building a team around. They are finally sold that they do have core of players to build around and move forward with. I think they will like to do something in the future with Buxton and maybe Sano but we will see what they will do with these players. I just see that they may have burned some bridges especially with Buxton with this last year on trying to limit his service time. Also if they don't pan out Kepler and Polanco will be here long enough to build with Lewis and Krillo so this to me is smart move. The next big questions will be what they are going to do with the pitchers but i have been thinking on this they may just put qualifying offers out on both Gibson and Ordorizzi for next year and i wouldn't be surprised if they might take the offers because i have hard time believing they would get much over that. They would be paying on the high side but its only one year deal and gets them close to their prospects coming up in the pipeline. I sure wish they could now sign Berios and Rosario to longer term contract this would be nice begining to nice core of players locked up and something to build around in the future. If Buxton has break out year i would look to signing him to longer term contract in the next year. I think agents are seeing the light under this current contract for baseball if you are coming out as free agent as 29 to 30 year old your market value or staying in baseball is going to become very difficult. This ensures Kepler and Polanco jobs till there 31 to 32 years old. Because even when they fight over the new player contract agreement players and Kepler are going to be to old see any benefit in new player contract. The game has changed for the players in baseball and last labor agreement has been bust for players like Kepler and Polanco because of service time management by clubs they are getting all their top years at reasonable prices and latter years they have been just going back to cheaper younger player because of how they have analysised the game. 

[baumannmd]

His numbers are the epitome of consistent. He just needs a better success rate. A BABIP more consistent with his career norm would up his numbers substantially, presuming he can maintain his peripheral ratios. A BABIP of .300 (which is roughly league average) would make him an all star, even at right field.

When I said “consistent” I meant that he tends to be a streaky hitter. He needs to get on base more consistently. I didn’t word that very well.

 

But I agree. He has put up very consistent numbers at the plate every year that he’s been in the big leagues. Those numbers just need to be better.

 

If he never improves his OBP or BABIP, he’ll still be a solid player and this will still be a good extension. If he does improve those numbers, this contract will be a steal for the Twins and fans.

Edited February 15, 2019 by baumannmd

[MMMordabito]

 

You don't "have" to do anything. You can expand payroll with a pretty darn good excuse: Harper's aren't available for just cash almost ever. Big dogs not hard in pursuit. Controlled core still cheap with another wave coming. Having Harper for 2 waves rather than 1 isn't bad.

Imagine if we traded Buxton Rosie AND Kep for prospects. And we started Harper, Cave, and Garver. (for example) Conceivably we upgrade 3 different line up spots. (lose some on d). Then next year we add in AK and Rooker on Rookie deals. And remember, we probably got 5 ot 6 future big leaguers waiting from trading the current OF. Also, we don't have to do all these moves now. We can keep Buxton or Rosie or Kep for another year and

You can try to do the math on cost. But which outfield do you like best out of those options?

 

I probably should have further qualified my statement with "in the Twins market and considering the self-imposed payroll cap that ownership seems to have in place" ... If payroll was expanded, then I would agree that the conversation completely changes.

[Jham]

I probably should have further qualified my statement with "in the Twins market and considering the self-imposed payroll cap that ownership seems to have in place" ... If payroll was expanded, then I would agree that the conversation completely changes.

I know. I'm just frustrated because I think many of us sense that this core is running out of time. If they fail, we're waiting on the next core with only the remnants of a failed core to build upon. We have no franchise player to build around. 2 players who are already who we were hoping Mauer would be are out there. We have little tied up in future salary. Adding a key stone player gives flexibility, a back up plan, and solidifies plan A all at the same time. With most of the big shooters struggling with cap issues and 2 superstars watering down each other's market, this opportunity just might not come around again. Even if it Josh Hamilton's out, We aren't otherwise over-committed and have a deep enough farm system to weather it if we are smart about it. Now is the time.

[howieramone2]

 

I have no complaint on this extension, or the one to Polanco. I want to see more. Rosario and Berrios. I think the wait and see stance on Buxton and Sano is a mistake. Show the players you are willing to take a risk. If both received similiar deals to Kepler and Polanco it would hardly handcuff the team even if the players don't pan out. But if Sano and Buxton come through which we all hope then the extension prices will greatly increase. I don't see Kepler as being any less of a risk.

How do you know there is a wait and see attitude with Buxton and Sano?  You're confusing signing first with offered first.