Article: Twins, Jorge Polanco Finalizing Contract Extension

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

No idea why so many think this is about Gordon. It's about signing a guy they like to keep him around. Probably at a reasonable number. If they like him, this is exactly what they should do, no matter who is in the minors.

 

Haven't you learned that any potential thing regarding SS or 2B involves Gordon being labeled a bust on this site?

[Thrylos]

 

 Gordon's path, along with Luis Arraez now have more obstacles.

 

The biggest obstacle for Gordon is to finish a season strong and not hitting below the Mendoza line in the second half.  He needs to improve that before one even considers him as anything more than a potential utility player in the majors.

 

Arraez lost some ground because of injury, but came back full force.  The worst batting average for any stop in his career has been .298 and worst OBP .345.  Schoop is in an one year deal and would be leaving just in time for Arraez to slot in as the starting 2B in 2020.

 

Arraez does not belong in the same sentence with Gordon...

 

But this is for Polanco.  And by all indications he will be the present and future SS for the Twins.  If the Twins will need to accommodate Lewis and Javier in the future, that would be a great problem to have, and I am sure that they find a way to do it.

But not today

[rdehring]

Love this move and am a bit surprised they are doing it.  Although this is about keeping a very good middle infielder in the fold long-term, it does affect others.  Perhaps the most affected will be Gordon.  His play on the field will determine future Twins moves pertaining to him.

 

Now get Berrios signed to something similar, then Gibson to a couple years.  With Kirilloff, Larnach and others on the rise, I can see them waiting another year to extend Rosario and/or Kepler.  

[Miggy's Little Helper]

 

Posted this on the other thread, but will carry it over to here.

 

I'm guessing something like 5 years, $31M, with a couple team options for 2025 and 2026 that could bring it to 7 years, $59M.

 

Breaks down like this:

 

2020: $1,500,000

2021: $3,500,000

2022: $6,000,000 (last arb year)

2023: $9,000,000

2024: $11,000,000

2025: $13,000,000 (team option, $1M buyout)

2026: $15,000,000 (team option, $1M buyout)

 

I assume we're talking seven years including this year.    

 

As for salary structure, I'd hope for a much flatter structure.  They've got bigger extensions to give out after this.  Ideally, they'd just flat him at $5-6MM for the first five or even frontload (although I seem to recall this is discouraged by the salary arb calculations in the CBA).  If the options are for $13MM and 15MM respectively, the team might as well light the buyout money on fire.  Polanco is good.  He's not $13MM or $15MM good as currently defined in the market.  $11MM is about the highest I'd go--and even then there's a far greater than 50% chance the team option won't be picked up.   

 

Overall, thinking about this a bit more, this extension is a bit of a head-scratcher.  The team appears to be taking on risk with this extension for almost no reason.  There's not much risk that Polanco is going to crush his 2017-2018 performance this year and reset contract expectations.  There's more risk of regression lowering contract expectations.  And if Polanco regresses to a low .700 OPS player, $10MM per year in the later years if the contract will be a relatively painful drag on a $130MM payroll--let alone a $100MM payroll.  It's odd they don't want to "wait and see" on Polanco when we all know they're far too willing to "wait and see" on the state of the team as a whole...  This might be the Phil Hughes extension redux.

[PDX Twin]

 

I don't get it either. Polanco was going to be here for the next 4 seasons regardless of signing an extension or not. The front office wouldn't be making a deal with Polanco unless they thought it added long-term value for the team. So it's not like Polanco becomes unmovable in the situation where Gordon and Lewis both break out.

 

I'm guessing that the Twins are pushing on all fronts: Rosario, Berrios, Kepler, and maybe Sano and Buxton, and that Polanco is simply the first for whom terms have been agreed. Others are likely to follow if they can get to an agreement, or not.

[nytwinsfan]

http://www.startribune.com/twins-shortstop-jorge-polanco-set-for-seven-year-deal/505833702/

 

HOLY COW. $25 million guaranteed for Polanco over 5, plus 2 options (I like those number for the Twins).

 

Kepler up next.

 

Right fielder Max Kepler is also nearing completion of a new contract, the source confirmed. The Twins have called a Friday morning news conference to make “a baseball announcement.”

 

 

Rosario, Berrios and Rogers likely as well.

 

All-Star pitcher Jose Berrios, outfielder Eddie Rosario and reliever Taylor Rogers are also in line for longer contracts.

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don't get it either. Polanco was going to be here for the next 4 seasons regardless of signing an extension or not. The front office wouldn't be making a deal with Polanco unless they thought it added long-term value for the team. So it's not like Polanco becomes unmovable in the situation where Gordon and Lewis both break out.

I see this extension more as the front office articulating a vision of their middle infield, Polanco and Lewis, and the more I think about it, the more I like it.

 

It makes sense for posters to bring up Gordon's future or lack of future with the team in this thread.

[PseudoSABR]

I think Polanco's cost certainty will add to his value as a trade asset should the Twins decide to go in another direction in the near future. 

[Seth Stohs]

[Doomtints]

I love Polanco but I would have preferred to see another year of him before making this move.

 

But with Sano and Buxton falling on their faces, if you're gonna hand out an extension this is the only one to make, at least on the position player side.

 

Right now Polanco is the only player on the team the Twins have committed to build around. Interesting.

[Mike Sixel]

They are no longer the only team without a commitment past this year!

[Doomtints]

On the negative side, is $25M the right rate for 15-25 throwing errors per year?

[Jham]

Not a fan of extending a player a positive test away from maybe never playing again. I always like polanco because he swims hard but doesn't have contact issues. But until I can see his slugging isn't PED related (took him 2 months to go yard after his recall) I wouldn't have offered. price was right though.

[Jham]

Not a fan of extending a player a positive test away from maybe never playing again. I always like polanco because he swims hard but doesn't have contact issues. But until I can see his slugging isn't PED related (took him 2 months to go yard after his recall) I wouldn't have offered. price was right though.

[dbminn]

 

Looks like I was a little heavy on the guaranteed money, ESPN is reporting 5 years, $25M guaranteed.

 

http://www.espn.com.au/mlb/story/_/id/25995558/minnesota-twins-jorge-polanco-finalizing-seven-year-25-million-extension

 

You don't have 2019 in your estimate - the fifth year should be 2023, I think. It's a great deal for the Twins however you slice it. Polanco should sleep well too.

[markos]

 

Right now Polanco is the only player on the team the Twins have committed to build around. Interesting.

Or alternatively, Polanco is the only player that isn't willing to bet on himself and would rather take the guaranteed money now.

[Doomtints]

 

 

Or alternatively, Polanco is the only player that isn't willing to bet on himself and would rather take the guaranteed money now.

 

Doubtful.

 

Think about it: This is very close to the contract Brian Dozier had. The Twins are budgeting the same money for the middle of the infield. Nothing has changed.

Edited February 14, 2019 by Doomtints

[nicksaviking]

I'm just fine with this deal, but I think a lot of people are over-estimating the flexibility of this deal in it's later stages. Assuming the pay is going to escalate, years four and five will likely be approaching if not above $10M and the option years will surely be higher than that. 

 

$10-12M per year for a 2B on the free agent market is about the max these days. I think this is likely a rather player friendly deal, which is just fine, but I don't think it will help with his trade value unless he turns into Jose Ramirez.

 

In which case one would hope he's not traded.

[scottz]

 

Excellent deal. Security for the player, but also team friendly.

 

Congratulations, Jorge. Be wise with your money.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm just fine with this deal, but I think a lot of people are over-estimating the flexibility of this deal in it's later stages. Assuming the pay is going to escalate, years four and five will likely be approaching if not above $10M and the option years will surely be higher than that.

 

$10-12M per year for a 2B on the free agent market is about the max these days. I think this is likely a rather player friendly deal, which is just fine, but I don't think it will help with his trade value unless he turns into Jose Ramirez.

 

In which case one would hope he's not traded.

Too bad they didn't front load it, to keep that flexibility. But that I would expect them to, but if your budget is really yearly, that would make some sense if you were worried about future spending.

[nicksaviking]

 

Too bad they didn't front load it, to keep that flexibility. But that I would expect them to, but if your budget is really yearly, that would make some sense if you were worried about future spending.

 

I'd like to see that as well, but if they did, it would pretty unique for a MLB team.

 

I'm guessing owners prefer to hold onto that $25M and keep getting interest and dividends as long as possible. Future payroll is still secondary to future profit.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd like to see that as well, but if they did, it would pretty unique for a MLB team.

 

I'm guessing owners prefer to hold onto that $25M and keep getting interest and dividends as long as possible. Future payroll is still secondary to future profit.

Agreed. Which I totally get. Just not what I'd do if I was a billionaire. But I get it. What I want is not what I expect, which some confuse here.

[KirbyDome89]

 

I'm just fine with this deal, but I think a lot of people are over-estimating the flexibility of this deal in it's later stages. Assuming the pay is going to escalate, years four and five will likely be approaching if not above $10M and the option years will surely be higher than that. 

 

$10-12M per year for a 2B on the free agent market is about the max these days. I think this is likely a rather player friendly deal, which is just fine, but I don't think it will help with his trade value unless he turns into Jose Ramirez.

 

In which case one would hope he's not traded.

Exactly. I'm cool with the deal, in part because I'm a big Jorge fan, but the Twins are only committed to buying out one FA year. If that year, and the two options, are at or near market value it isn't a "team friendly," deal, which again, is fine.  

[markos]

 

Agreed. Which I totally get. Just not what I'd do if I was a billionaire. But I get it. What I want is not what I expect, which some confuse here.

Is the structure, in part, dictated by arbitration? I know they often use player comps (performance + service time) to come up with salary estimates. If they even just had a flat rate for Polanco's deal ($5M/year), could a future arbitration case use Polanco's hypothetical $5M arb1 salary (rather than the actual $2.5M arb1 salary) as a comp when arguing for their salary?

[Mike Sixel]

Is the structure, in part, dictated by arbitration? I know they often use player comps (performance + service time) to come up with salary estimates. If they even just had a flat rate for Polanco's deal ($5M/year), could a future arbitration case use Polanco's hypothetical $5M arb1 salary (rather than the actual $2.5M arb1 salary) as a comp when arguing for their salary?

Not sure, but I'm sure there are unintended consequences of front loading

[rdehring]

We won't know how it is structured until we learn the terms.  Maybe it is front-loaded with a nice signing bonus this year on top of his previously agreed salary for 2019.  Unless I am mistaken, I believe signing bonuses are allowed.

 

I also will join those who believe Polanco hasn't even scratched the surface of what he can become.  And his defense is adequate at shortstop until Lewis or Javier are ready and he moves to second base.  What this does mean, however, if Javier is also the real deal he will likely end up at third base...sometime after Sano either moves to first base/DH.

[Miggy's Little Helper]

 

Excellent deal. Security for the player, but also team friendly.

 

I don't see this as a "team friendly" deal--it's pretty close to neutral assuming that Polanco continues his 2017-2018 level of play.  It's what he'd likely earn through his next four years (this year plus the three arb years) and about market rate for his first year of FA.

[jkcarew]

 

But until I can see his slugging isn't PED related (took him 2 months to go yard after his recall) I wouldn't have offered. price was right though.

But his SLG was higher last year than it was before the suspension....higher than it's ever been.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

No idea why so many think this is about Gordon. It's about signing a guy they like to keep him around. Probably at a reasonable number. If they like him, this is exactly what they should do, no matter who is in the minors.

Having Polanco signed long term can also make him a more valuable trade chip down the line too.

 

Also you can't have too many good players and I for one still believe that Gordon is a good player and will be a good player in the future. We are now discarding Nick b/c of a bad stretch in AAA yet we herald Kiriloff as the next Votto b/c of one great season in A ball. Lets not forget that Nick already tore up AA last season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, so, second baseman of the future. Not bad; it's ok, Polanco is a very good hitter and adequate fielder. The Gordon ship has apparent sailed. Adjust sights accordingly.

 

 

I can get down with a Lewis & Polanco double-play combo. This likely means Gordon is the odd man out. 

 

Gordon's not necessarily out. This contract could make Polanco a much more attractive trade asset down the line.

 

Obviously, we'd all love for Polanco to do well and become a permanent fixture in Minnesota too, but if Gordon and Lewis force the issue, we could eventually flip Polanco for, say, a young pitcher down the road. Like Jean Segura and his contract was flipped for Taijuan Walker, etc.