Too bad they didn't front load it, to keep that flexibility. But that I would expect them to, but if your budget is really yearly, that would make some sense if you were worried about future spending.

 

Front loading the contract basically negates the benefit of the two option years.

Yeah, Polanco is not going to 3B. If Gordon pushes his way through as I think he will then Polanco at 5mil per is a very attractive trade piece.

 

 This might be the Phil Hughes extension redux.

Polanco's OPS has been over .723 every year, and his worst year was his breakout after a slump. Phil Hughes had 1 good year, and got twice as much money. Polanco is younger, and has always hit. Even if he doesn't do great its 25M over 5 years, at 5M/year you can barely get a decent utility IF in FA. He will be worth twice that pay. as for the option years, they may not be great deals come that time but they're options so we can get out after 5 years if needed. GREAT signing

 

 

Kepler up next.

 

 

 

 

You called it.

Front loading the contract basically negates the benefit of the two option years.

How so? The option years can be any price they negotiate. And, it looks like Kepler has a deal more evenly spread out, which was really the wish.

Glad they signed Polanco, that guy is a genuine baseball player. Still wondering about Kepler. His window is narrowing quickly, with hot bats like Rooker and Kirilloff knocking on the door within the next year. Max better figure out how to mash lefty pitching pretty quick. Take some lessons from Morneau. 

Glad they signed Polanco, that guy is a genuine baseball player. Still wondering about Kepler. His window is narrowing quickly, with hot bats like Rooker and Kirilloff knocking on the door within the next year. Max better figure out how to mash lefty pitching pretty quick. Take some lessons from Morneau.

Kepler posted a .745 OPS vs LHP last year. Prior to last year, his career mark was in the low .500 range.

 

Morneau’s career OPS vs LHP is .710.

Edited February 14, 20197 yr by yarnivek1972

 

Gordon's not necessarily out. This contract could make Polanco a much more attractive trade asset down the line.

 

Obviously, we'd all love for Polanco to do well and become a permanent fixture in Minnesota too, but if Gordon and Lewis force the issue, we could eventually flip Polanco for, say, a young pitcher down the road. Like Jean Segura and his contract was flipped for Taijuan Walker, etc.

 

All true, I just prefer to see these extensions as the team and the player believing in each other. In the unlikely event Gordon ever "forces the issue" on Polanco, it will mean Gordon has trade value again, and can be traded just as well as Polanco. By the way, good job using Gordon and Lewis in the same sentence.  

 

I like these extensions the more I think about it. Contractually they are not earth shattering, but I think it speaks to a vision and commitment. 

 

Front loading the contract basically negates the benefit of the two option years.

 

I guess I don't understand the logic there.  If you have money to spend now wouldn't evenly spreading out the the contract give you greater cost certainty\stability for five years (i.e.  Every Year I pay Max 7 Million).  If I pay him 3 this year, 5 next year, and 8 the year after. etc.  then in future years he keeps bumping my payroll number each future year.    Leaving me fewer future dollars to improve the team.

 

If I am a cheap owner then I get why you structure the higher numbers to the later years of the contract as you might trade the player before the entire contract is up thus avoiding paying the higher salaries at the end of the contract.  As the player improves so does their trade value.  So it gives you an opportunity to not have to pay those future dollars in the end.  Granted there is no guarantee that it works out that way for the team but at least the opportunity is there to not have to pay those future years. 

 

That is the only reason I can see for structuring salaries with increasing values for future years.  If someone else can enlighten me please do.

Explains why they didn't pursue Marwin.  Either he slides over to 2B or he becomes the super utility.

That’s a big commitment for a super-utility. Hopefully you didn’t mean bench, but starting at 2B, SS or 3B depending on rest / injury.

 

$10-12M per year for a 2B on the free agent market is about the max these days.

 

 

Today, yes, but what will it be in 4-7 years from now?

 

Too bad they didn't front load it, to keep that flexibility. But that I would expect them to, but if your budget is really yearly, that would make some sense if you were worried about future spending.

 

 

I'd like to see that as well, but if they did, it would pretty unique for a MLB team.

 

I'm guessing owners prefer to hold onto that $25M and keep getting interest and dividends as long as possible. Future payroll is still secondary to future profit.

 

Redacted. Sounds like they may have done a bit of this with Kepler, so apologies and well done if the rumor is true.

 

If he OPS in the .800, for sure it is. 5 mill a year for a strong hitting middle infielder is fair.

 

Polanco is a switch hitter.  Last season he hit .317/.387/.457 vs. RHP.  He needs work from the right side.

Nothing wrong with this for Gordon. If he and Royce can both play in the MLB at the same time and Polanco is still good, you find space for them. Polanco or Gordon can go play 3rd, Sano is probably moving to 1B at some point anyways, and you're good. Never too many good SS or CFs on your team. If they're all hitting, you find room for them. 

 

I guess I don't understand the logic there.  If you have money to spend now wouldn't evenly spreading out the the contract give you greater cost certainty\stability for five years (i.e.  Every Year I pay Max 7 Million).  If I pay him 3 this year, 5 next year, and 8 the year after. etc.  then in future years he keeps bumping my payroll number each future year.    Leaving me fewer future dollars to improve the team.

 

If I am a cheap owner then I get why you structure the higher numbers to the later years of the contract as you might trade the player before the entire contract is up thus avoiding paying the higher salaries at the end of the contract.  As the player improves so does their trade value.  So it gives you an opportunity to not have to pay those future dollars in the end.  Granted there is no guarantee that it works out that way for the team but at least the opportunity is there to not have to pay those future years. 

 

That is the only reason I can see for structuring salaries with increasing values for future years.  If someone else can enlighten me please do.

 

I think it's a fair assumption that the Twins wanted to do this since they probably have some payroll room now and are willing to front load the contract because of that.

 

However, it's entirely possible that as part of the negotiations, the Kepler team gave up a little bit in overall guaranteed dollars in exchange for a sharp immediate increase. 

 

Polanco’s arm is very weak for a shortstop. It would be even moreso at 3b.

So who plays 3B after Sano moves to first?  Which is better for 3B? Lewis, Polanco, Gordon, Javier?  Right now we have two positions and four choices after Schoop goes.  Polanco cannot block Lewis.  

I'm a huge fan of this deal. Buying out one year of his free agency for $7.5M in 2023? Heck yeah! And then $10.5M in 2024 if he goes up for 550 PAs and $12M in 2025? Factoring in rising salaries, that seems incredibly team friendly to me. Now, Polanco still has to hit well and pan out as a player, but I think this is a phenomenal extension that has very little risk attached. At worst he'll end up as a slightly overpaid utility guy. I kinda feel like Polanco is going to regret this deal in the future, as it reminds me of the Denard Span deal that he signed that ended up being very team friendly. More of these extensions, please!

I like the structure of both these deals.  Not exactly front loaded, but they don't balloon at the end either.  The Twins did end up paying each about 3 million more this year than would have otherwise.

 

These deal very Clevelandesque. I like these deals and hope to do same with Rosario and Berrios. I doubt Berrios will partake though

These deal very Clevelandesque. I like these deals and hope to do same with Rosario and Berrios. I doubt Berrios will partake though

3M more this season doesn't make me feel all that great about the front-loading aspect and doesn't alleviate the lack of FA action at all.

 

That said, I'm good with both contracts.  I hope both players have great runs with the Twins under those deals.

So who plays 3B after Sano moves to first?  Which is better for 3B? Lewis, Polanco, Gordon, Javier?  Right now we have two positions and four choices after Schoop goes.  Polanco cannot block Lewis.

 

Assuming they all pan out I would guess it would be either Javier or another prospect/FA. Lewis will be best somewhere up the middle to utilize his speed. Polanco doesn’t really have the arm for 3B. And Gordon might be good there defensively but probably won’t hit enough to justify playing him at 3B.

IF Gordon has a great year, does this move Polanco to 3B?

Glad they signed Polanco, that guy is a genuine baseball player. Still wondering about Kepler. His window is narrowing quickly, with hot bats like Rooker and Kirilloff knocking on the door within the next year. Max better figure out how to mash lefty pitching pretty quick. Take some lessons from Morneau.

Actually, I think that is part of the underlying logic of both of these deals. From both Polanco and Kepler’s perspective, as good but maybe not great players, they can clearly see guys who can potentially push them off the field looming behind them (Lewis, Javier; Kiriloff, Larnach). It makes sense, then, to get a team commitment to having them stick around as a long-term piece.

 

Berrios and Buxton don’t have to look over their shoulders, so that might make them less inclined to opt for a deal selling any free agent years. Sano doesn’t either, per se, but we also don’t know how long he will stick at third.

On the negative side, is $25M the right rate for 15-25 throwing errors per year?

well, he's young. maybe he can up the errors to 50, and thereby lower the cost per error to $1/2 mil.

 

Think positive.

 

#analytics

well, he's young. maybe he can up the errors to 50, and thereby lower the cost per error to $1/2 mil.

 

Think positive.

 

well, he's young. maybe he can up the errors to 50, and thereby lower the cost per error to $1/2 mil.

Think positive.

 

So who plays 3B after Sano moves to first? Which is better for 3B? Lewis, Polanco, Gordon, Javier? Right now we have two positions and four choices after Schoop goes. Polanco cannot block Lewis.

I suspect the third baseman after Sano is not in the organization at this time. None of those names project well at third.

I suspect the third baseman after Sano is not in the organization at this time. None of those names project well at third.

Astudillo

MLB contracts can't be truly "front loaded" under the current CBA.

A player under team control must be paid a minimum of 80% of his previous season's salary.