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FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects

dbminn

By dbminn
in Twins Minor League Talk

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dbminn First Round Pick

dbminn

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Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel have released their Top 100 Prospect List with brief summaries of each player. They have also added simple charts for each player, estimating the probability of future value. I like the charts because they are a reminder of how few players become MLB regulars.

 

No big surprises with the list:

 

6.   Lewis 

16. Kirilloff

64. Graterol 

99. Larnach

 

The list includes 30 bonus players so that all 50FV players are included.

 

"Kirilloff has a one in six chance of turning into Joey Votto".

 

 

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gunnarthor All-Star

gunnarthor

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Nice to see some stuff about Larnich there. I'm a bit surprised we aren't reading about more Twins on the lower part of these lists. In our team rankings, it seems there are a ton of guys between 5-17 or so who could be more or less interchangeable on where they are ranked. You'd like to think that one of those guys would catch on nationally but other than Balozovic with Klaw, none have.

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PseudoSABR Cedar Rapids Kernels

PseudoSABR

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Nice to see some stuff about Larnich there. I'm a bit surprised we aren't reading about more Twins on the lower part of these lists. In our team rankings, it seems there are a ton of guys between 5-17 or so who could be more or less interchangeable on where they are ranked. You'd like to think that one of those guys would catch on nationally but other than Balozovic with Klaw, none have.

The sheer amount of the 5-17 guys probably obscures any one of them standing out.  

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nicksaviking All-Star

nicksaviking

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The sheer amount of the 5-17 guys probably obscures any one of them standing out.  

 

Two more of them, Gordon and Gonsalves had regularly been top 100 guys. Probably another half dozen of them or so have high enough ceilings that they could find themselves on the list in the future.

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dbminn First Round Pick

dbminn

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Nice to see some stuff about Larnich there. I'm a bit surprised we aren't reading about more Twins on the lower part of these lists. In our team rankings, it seems there are a ton of guys between 5-17 or so who could be more or less interchangeable on where they are ranked. You'd like to think that one of those guys would catch on nationally but other than Balozovic with Klaw, none have.

 

Me too. Thorpe might be the biggest surprise, although he doesn't have wow velocity. So many of the other top prospects just finished their first year of full-season ball. I think at least a couple will crack the mid-season lists. 

 

FYI - Jim Bowden, former GM and irritating human, just released his top 200 list at the Athletic (pay site). I'm not putting much stock in his work, but he did rank some other Twins:

 

7.    Lewis

10.  Kirilloff

66.  Graterol

162. Thorpe

170. Balazovic

177. Gordon

181. Duran

 

He totally missed Larnach.

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Tomj14 Draft Eligible

Tomj14

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Nice to see some stuff about Larnich there. I'm a bit surprised we aren't reading about more Twins on the lower part of these lists. In our team rankings, it seems there are a ton of guys between 5-17 or so who could be more or less interchangeable on where they are ranked. You'd like to think that one of those guys would catch on nationally but other than Balozovic with Klaw, none have.

My guess is that every team has a couple guys like the Twins do which leaves a pretty large group to pick from.

The good thing as a Twins fan is they have more than couple, so the odds go up of having a few of those players make it.

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Tomj14 Draft Eligible

Tomj14

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He totally missed Larnach.

and Javier

 

and again sadly this could explain why the FO hasn't traded prospects for a proven player, there is a ton of depth in the Twins system, but only a few real high end prospects. If I was another team and was trading a proven player to the Twins I would want at least of the top 3, and a couple of the next tier.

Or 4 or 5 of the players TD has ranked between 4 and 15.

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dbminn First Round Pick

dbminn

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In case you missed it....I asked why no Twins were on the list of possible breakthrough candidates for next year …

 

Thanks Mike. I thought gunnarthur was commenting on the back end of the Top 100. I may have missed the boat on what he meant.

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Hosken Bombo Disco Minnesota Twins

Hosken Bombo Disco

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Me too. Thorpe might be the biggest surprise, although he doesn't have wow velocity. So many of the other top prospects just finished their first year of full-season ball. I think at least a couple will crack the mid-season lists. 

 

FYI - Jim Bowden, former GM and irritating human, just released his top 200 list at the Athletic (pay site). I'm not putting much stock in his work, but he did rank some other Twins:

 

7.    Lewis

10.  Kirilloff

66.  Graterol

162. Thorpe

170. Balazovic

177. Gordon

181. Duran

 

He totally missed Larnach.

Bowden - he strikes me as someone who would just copy other people's lists. He's also got Lewis too low.
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diehardtwinsfan Minnesota Twins

diehardtwinsfan

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and Javier

 

and again sadly this could explain why the FO hasn't traded prospects for a proven player, there is a ton of depth in the Twins system, but only a few real high end prospects. If I was another team and was trading a proven player to the Twins I would want at least of the top 3, and a couple of the next tier.

Or 4 or 5 of the players TD has ranked between 4 and 15.

 

Most systems are lacking lots of high end players... That's the nature of those games. We have 2-4 high end players, depending on how you rank Graterol and Larnach. That's pretty good. A lot of that depth still has high ceiling guys, but with more question marks. Some will pan out, some won't. That's the nature of that game. 

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