Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: #4 Trevor Larnach

[Cody Christie]

At one point, Oregon State was down to their final strike in the College World Series, but they wouldn’t go that quietly. Trevor Larnach stepped into the box with the score tied and a lot of pressure on his shoulders. He would launch a two-run home run into the outfield bullpen to give the Beavers a 5-3 lead. Oregon State won that night to force a decisive Game 3 and they would go on to be CWS Champions.

 

Obviously, one hit doesn’t make a player a first-round pick. Larnach broke out during his junior season and helped the Beavers to win college baseball’s highest honor. What’s next for the College World Series star? Let’s find out.Age: 21 (DOB: 2/26/1997)

2018 Stats (Rookie/Low-A): .303/.390/.500, 13 2B, 5 HR, 3-for-3 in stolen base attempts

ETA: 2021

2018 Ranking: NR

 

National Top 100 Rankings

BA: NR |MLB: NR | ESPN: NR |BP: NR

 

What’s To Like

During his junior season, Larnach went from a contributing player on a good team to a breakout star on a national title contender. He hit .348/.463/.652 with 19 home runs and 19 doubles. To put those numbers in perspective, he was a career .296/.417/.494 hitter at Oregon State. He only had three home runs during his sophomore season. Lucky for him, his hard work paid off.

 

After taking a short break following the CWS, Larnach continued to hit when he joined the Twins organization. His professional career started in the Appy League so he could get accustom to hitting with a wood bat on a regular basis. The transition was smooth as he hit .311/.413/.492 with seven extra-base hits in 18 games for the E-Twins.

 

Because of his college experience, Minnesota could be aggressive with Larnach. He would finish the year with over 100 plate appearances with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. After the promotion, he batted .297/.373/.505 with eight doubles and three home runs in 24 games.

 

His excellent exit velocity was one of the reasons the Twins keyed in on Larnach. He also has a strong makeup and he is very coachable. He is a student of the game and spends countless hours studying video and working on improving his game.

 

What’s Left To Work On

At 6-foot-4 and 216 pounds, Larnach profiles as a corner outfielder and he has a strong arm to fit those positions. He will continue to add some weight to his frame. When he was drafted, he was listed at 205 but he weighed in at 216 during this past fall’s instructional league action.

 

Even with his breakout season, he continues to refine his swing. “I’ve done everything from changing my batting stance to my mechanics like working on the load and working on the gather,” Larnach said. “I’m not done yet. There are still things I need to do.”

 

Besides his swing, Larnach believes there are other parts of his game that can still be improved. “I’ve been working my tail off since high school,” Larnach said. “I’ve been getting results, but I feel like I can go high and develop mentally and physically.”

 

He will never be an elite base runner, but he has the opportunity to continue to improve his base running abilities. While he continues to add weight, he needs to make sure he can continue to be an adequate base runner. He also needs to have enough speed to play a corner outfield position and he certainly has that ability at his point in his career.

 

What’s Next

Larnach could head back the MWL, where he finished last season. It seems more likely for him to spend the bulk of 2019 playing for the Fort Myers Miracle. If he hits well there to start the season, he could spend part of the season’s second half in the Blue Wahoo’s AA line-up.

 

His work ethic and makeup should allow him to move quickly through the Twins system. It seems unlikely for him to get to Target Field before the 2021 season. Current corner outfielders Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler are under team control through the 2021 season and Alex Kirilloff is already ahead of him in the Twins system.

 

That being said, Larnach’s bat might be strong enough to push any player out of his way.

 

Twins Daily 2019 Top 20 Prospects

 

Honorable Mentions

 

20. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B

19. Jorge Alcala, RHP

18. LaMonte Wade, OF

17. Zack Littell, RHP

16. Gilberto Celestino, OF

15. Yunior Severino, 2B

14. Ben Rortvedt, C

13. Ryan Jeffers, C

12. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP

11. Nick Gordon, SS

10. Akil Baddoo, OF

9. Blayne Enlow, RHP

8. Lewis Thorpe, LHP

7. Jhoan Duran, RHP

6. Brent Rooker, 1B/LF

5. Wander Javier, SS

4. Trevor Larnach, OF

TD Top Prospects: #3- Coming Tomorrow

 

Get to know more about Larnach and many more minor league players in the 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook.

 

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[Danchat]

I said after the draft that he reminds me of Brent Rooker, and I'm still thinking that, but I think he'll end up as a better contact hitter than Rooker will be. I'm predicting he'll have a year in the minors where his power will develop and he'll hit 20+ HRs, but I'm not sure if this is the year.

[rdehring]

Great prospect with awesome first couple months in the organization.  Thinking, would I have Javier ahead of him?  Javier has missed so much time, but could be as good as almost anyone, anywhere.  He could, couldn't he?  For that reason I would probably flip Javier and Larnach.  One has missed so much time, the other has only been around for a short time.  

 

We all talk about the Top 3, but these two could be their equal.  The only drawback is that only one of the five is a pitcher...or is it?  Nothing wrong with having four studs at shortstop, shortstop, corner outfielder, corner outfielder.  

 

Fortunately, we should know a lot more six months from now.  Lets hope they all do well, very well, so the Twins are looking at a young core in a couple years, a young core that comes up and gets it done!

[dougd]

He made John Sickels fantasy orientated prospect list today at #100: "could advance more rapidly than many players with more press".

[beckmt]

I might have Javier ahead of him, just because of position and having more experience (that might change after this year).

Starting him at Ft. Myers seems right to me.  If he can move through Ft. Myers and do well in AA, then Twins are looking at the great position of being able to move a controlable starting outfielder with a prospect or two for a front line starter, or maybe a catcher if needed. 

[Blackjack]

“I’ve done everything from changing my batting stance to my mechanics like working on the load and working on the gather,” Larnach said. “I’m not done yet. There are still things I need to do.”

 

This is the best part of his makeup, that he's working hard at his craft.  Too many prospects - not going to name names on the current Twins - rely on too much on their athletic ability, which has gotten them a long way but in order to excel they need to go the extra mile.

[DJL44]

My favorite comp for Larnach is Geoff Jenkins. 1st round pick from a PAC school, College World Series star, All-American. Power lefthanded bat who could play in the field but wasn’t a favorite to win a gold glove.

[Monkeypaws]

 

“I’ve been working my tail off since high school,” Larnach said.

 

Gardy woulda loved this guy.

[TPetter]

Any surprises on who the top three will be?

[David HK]

First off, thanks to the crew putting these reads together.

Whew - at least this one sounds encouraging.

The last few synposes, Rooker especially,made me want to give up all hope once the downside portions were related.

We've been tantalized for years about the Bux-Sano-Berrios axis, with a couple sweet supporting players, and that hasn't panned out so well so far...

But, like the eternal Twinkie fan, I try to be more hopeful than fearful.

[bobs]

Just love everything I've read about this kid.  Big part of the "next wave" if the current one (Sano, Kepler, Buxton, etc.) don't pop this year.

[jmlease1]

He's off to a very nice start. I would be aggressive with him and start him in Ft. Myers. Not sure there's much to be gained by having him beat up on low-A pitching for a month or so, and he needs to continue to show that he can hit against competition that's in his own development band. he's turning 22 at the end of the month and he needs to be playing against guys his own age or older, not knocking around guys still in their early stages of development. And if he performs in high-A, get him to AA for the second half. Going slow on Larnach in the low minors probably isn't going to help his development.

 

I'll be very interested to see what happens with his BA, and whether or not some of that starts to fall off as he faces more advanced pitchers. I'm starting to think batting average is becoming an underrated skill again and it would be nice to have some higher contact guys in the pipeline. Larnach could be one of those guys that controls the strike zone, hits for power, but doesn't just wave at everything else he swings at...

[jkcarew]

Seems too high for a guy who's 22 years old and really only has one season since he left high school that would distinguish him. How much are our perceptions influenced by the fact that that season was basically broadcast live by ESPN?

 

Then again, I don't know who I'd have ahead of him. Maybe Javier. Javier represents an interesting contrast. Also has a shiny but thin (to date) resume...but is nearly a full two years younger, with presumably a higher ceiling as a shortstop, but presumably further from the show.

 

Isn't it our turn to have a college bat-first guy arrive and rake inside of two years? Seems it happens all the time for other teams (even though I know it doesn't).

[Mike Sixel]

 

Seems too high for a guy who's 22 years old and really only has one season since he left high school that would distinguish him. How much are our perceptions influenced by the fact that that season was basically broadcast live by ESPN?

 

Then again, I don't know who I'd have ahead of him. Maybe Javier. Javier represents an interesting contrast. Also has a shiny but thin (to date) resume...but is nearly a full two years younger, with presumably a higher ceiling as a shortstop, but presumably further from the show.

 

Isn't it our turn to have a college bat-first guy arrive and rake inside of two years? Seems it happens all the time for other teams (even though I know it doesn't).

 

I don't have ESPN, so zero?

 

Fangraphs is quite high on him, for example. The reports say he can hit. And I like guys that can hit.

[Seth Stohs]

Our rankings:

 

Seth (5), Nick (6), Tom (4), Nick (4)

[COTwinsFan]

I find it strange that Keith Law lists Jordan Balazovic as the 3rd rated prospect in the Twins system and he isn't even in the Twins Daily top 20. I do realize that Twins Daily tends to keep older players as top prospects for a longer period of time than most national scouts. Just curious what some of the people who created the list think either they or Keith Law are valuing so differently in regards to this prospect. I also realize that every list will differ between authors, it just seems that this is far more extreme than most years.

[Seth Stohs]

 

My favorite comp for Larnach is Geoff Jenkins. 1st round pick from a PAC school, College World Series star, All-American. Power lefthanded bat who could play in the field but wasn’t a favorite to win a gold glove.

 

I think we all would take that!!

[Tom Froemming]

 

I find it strange that Keith Law lists Jordan Balazovic as the 3rd rated prospect in the Twins system and he isn't even in the Twins Daily top 20. I do realize that Twins Daily tends to keep older players as top prospects for a longer period of time than most national scouts. Just curious what some of the people who created the list think either they or Keith Law are valuing so differently in regards to this prospect. I also realize that every list will differ between authors, it just seems that this is far more extreme than most years.

Upside. And I like how you put it, extreme. It's extreme value put on upside. I like Balazovic a great deal, he was one of my breakout picks for the handbook, but I'm more inclined to be too low on a guy than too high. A lot of it can also simply be the timing of your exposure to a guy. 

 

I can't remember which start, but I caught one of Balazovic's later outings on MiLB.tv. My guess is Law might have seen him earlier in the year, or got his reports from someone who saw him during that time.

 

Balazovic got off to such a phenomenal start (2.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in his first  38 IP) but then had a few clunkers from later on (6.46 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in final 23.2 IP). His K:BB ratio remained outstanding all the way through, he was just giving up a lot more loud contact (,303 SLG in first 38 IP, .444 SLG in last 23.2 IP). 

 

There could be a lot of reasons behind that weird split to his season. I'm willing to bet he was working on something specific, but that was enough to keep me from really rocketing him up my list.

[2wins87]

Larnach snuck into the top 100 at Fangraphs.  They've consistently been a bit higher on him than most others.  Here's what they have to say:

 

 

Larnach hit several balls in excess of 110 mph during Oregon State’s opening weekend of the season and he ended up slugging .652 that year. We were all-in despite scout concerns about his lack of range in the outfield and fear that he might just be a DH. The gap between where we had Larnach on our pre-draft board (12) and where he went (20) was large enough that we wondered if we were too high. Then Larnach hit .303/.390/.500 in pro ball during the rest of the summer, and we could sleep again. He has huge raw power and doesn’t swing with violence or effort to generate it; it’s just there. We’re very optimistic about him hitting enough to profile in an outfield corner.

 

[COTwinsFan]

 

Upside. And I like how you put it, extreme. It's extreme value put on upside. I like Balazovic a great deal, he was one of my breakout picks for the handbook, but I'm more inclined to be too low on a guy than too high. A lot of it can also simply be the timing of your exposure to a guy. 

 

I can't remember which start, but I caught one of Balazovic's later outings on MiLB.tv. My guess is Law might have seen him earlier in the year, or got his reports from someone who saw him during that time.

 

Balazovic got off to such a phenomenal start (2.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in his first  38 IP) but then had a few clunkers from later on (6.46 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in final 23.2 IP). His K:BB ratio remained outstanding all the way through, he was just giving up a lot more loud contact (,303 SLG in first 38 IP, .444 SLG in last 23.2 IP). 

 

There could be a lot of reasons behind that weird split to his season. I'm willing to bet he was working on something specific, but that was enough to keep me from really rocketing him up my list.

I appreciate the response. I am always curious in the variations between different lists. In reality those variations are a good thing as they are the opposite of group think.

 

[Doctor Wu]

I know he's put up good numbers so far, but I'm still not sold on Larnach as a top prospect. But maybe it's just because I have this bizarre lack of confidence in players named Trevor.

Edited February 16, 2019 by Doctor Wu

[ashbury]

I know he's put up good numbers so far, but I'm still not sold on Larnach as a top prospect. But maybe it's just because I have this bizarre lack of confidence in players named Trevor.

“We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it and stop there lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove lid. She will never sit down on a hot stove lid again and that is well, but also she will never sit down on a cold one anymore.”  -- Mark Twin [sic]