Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: #7 Jhoan Duran

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

So I was replying to the following:

"Problem is that not so long ago Gonsalves was thought of as a for sure #3 and possibly a #2."

 

Not sure when #3 and possibly #2 is considered front end guy?

 

My only real point is there is no way a prospect should ever be rated as a teams third overall prospect or a top 100 list if his ceiling is a 4 or 5 starter.

 

I think it's a bit too soon to say his ceiling is a 4/5... In Gonsalves case, his floor is looking like a reliver or a AAAA type, so yeah, I think if he can make the right changes, he can certainly end up as a better than average SP... that's not necessarily a 1 or 2, but still a pretty good pitcher. 

 

Back to Duran, yeah, he's a bit high. I'd have Thorpe rated higher, that's for sure. But the stuff is good enough that you have to pay attention. He will definitely be on the must watch list this year. 

[The Billy Goat]

It seems the newer a prospect, the higher the chance that they are over-ranked. It's almost like we try to will them to be worth trading away a major league asset. Twins fans see a pitcher with the right build, good velo, who pitched to a 2.00 ERA in our organization. In 64% of his innings last year he was a 4.75 ERA pitcher for the Diamondbacks organization. I'd personally have him ranked 15th or so. When we traded away Luis Gil to the Yankees for Jake Cave, Gil instantly received prospect love. Baseball Prospectus even has him as the #6 prospect in the Yankee's organization. We always love the newest toy.

[108Stitches]

Prospect status is obviously heavily weighted on throwing hard and/or how much money they have invested in the guy. Forget the mediocre numbers in low level ball amirite? We have to have wishful thinking because we can’t possibly be wrong lol

[Linus]

I totally understand the ranking status vs Gonsalves. Gonsalves has mediocre stuff that could be successful with excellent control. There is the rub: he doesn’t have it and hasn’t throughout his minors career. He has to develop much better control or he is a AAAA pitcher

[DocBauer]

I repeat what others have said, and I have before as well, just way too early to get bent out of shape on Gonsalves after a few bad rookie outings. Reminder: his last few appearances as the "primary" looked much better. On top of that, he has adapted and excelled at every level he has reached. And his control problems in 2018 were not season-wide, it seemed to come in stretches, where in other stretches his control was just fine. I believe his ceiling is a #3 who should settle in very nicely as at least a quality #4-5. But let's give him more than a few rookie appearances before we decide he can't cut it shall we?

 

Right or wrong I tend to look at Alcala and Duran as 2 sides of the same coin. Probably because they both came to us last season in trade and we haven't watched them "grow up" in the Twins organization. But from all I have read, they both bring serious heat and have questions about secondary offerings, but with potential. Alcala, a bit older and having reached AA ball, I guess, strikes me as the more likely to end up in the pen. Is that fair? Probably not. I admit to being influenced by his numbers once he came over, as well as the video Tom shared, to think Duran may have more time/potential as a quality SP.

 

Fair or not, just kind of where my head is at.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Is there some way, Seth, that you all can factor in the probability of player X reaching his ceiling.  Kind of like going to Vegas and throwing the dice, knowing there is a 20% probability of X happening and a 30% probability of Y happening.  

 

Not all potential front of the rotation starters are the same.  You may think that Graterol, for example, has a 30% chance of reaching his ceiling.  Whereas, you may think that Duran has a 10% chance of reaching his ceiling with both having ceilings of an ACE.  

 

Has anyone attempted to do something like this?

 

Baseball HQs Minor League Analyst does something like that. They give a Grade for ceiling. something like 10 = Hall of Famer, 9 = regular All Star, 1 = AA... something like that. But then they give an Grade related to likelihood of reaching that potential. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Curious what he has changed or gotten better in the Twins organization that he wasn't that highly rated in Arizona but is here?

Hoping it is more than he was traded for Escobar or the 7 inning no hitter he threw.

 

For me, it's the 6-5 and 220. It's the 94-98 mph fastball. Potentially four pitches. Young. Video of his stuff. and more. Also, I saw him on a mid-season Top 10 guy for Arizona from a couple of places I went to. Not that that meant anything in my personal ranking or evaluation, but it was there. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

He was the third best Twin's prospect at the beginning of last year.

Top 7 or so in 2016.

Somebody must have thought that, or the Twins prospects have been WAY over rated the last few year?

 

Or the system is stronger. 

It's also reality that as players move up the ladder, there are a lot more data points to evaluate.

 

I fully admit... I had his ceiling as a number 3 starter who had the potential to have a couple of seasons that might qualify as a #2 type season.

 

His 2018 debut didn't convince me that he can't still be that,though the likelihood is maybe more that he's a #4 with an upside as a #3. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

It's especially interesting to peek at these rankings against Keith Law's recent list; there's a pretty significant divergence all over the place (except for the top 2). Law is calling Duran a one pitch guy and definitely sees him as a reliever.

 

I wonder how much of the differences are based in proximity (TD guys might have more granular detail) and how much in preference (everyone may value things differently in prospects). But KLaw definitely agrees more with Tom on Duran...

 

1.) I don't look at any other rankings before doing my list. It's my list. I don't want to be swayed by others.

 

2.) Keith Law ranked Jordan Balazovic as the #3 Twins prospect. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

I understand your argument, but at some point there has to be a balance between stuff and statistics. I was disappointed to see that Gonsalves tops out at 91, doesn't have pitches that can strike out MLB hitters, and also has poor command. It's not that I've totally given up on him, but he looks to be a 5th starter or a decent reliever if things go right in my eyes. He's done a great job in the minors, but unlike Berrios I don't know if his stuff will let him be more than a AAAA pitcher.

 

Conversely, if Duran can put things together, he has the stuff to be a great starter. I could see him being a #2 starter if everything goes right, though mostly throughout his career, it hasn't gone right.

Danchat, I went back to the 2018 write-up of Gonsalves (he was ranked #4 in the system by TD at the time) and I found an interesting comment in the comment section:

 

“I'm hoping to see Gonsalves by July in the majors. From what I've read, it seems he'll slot in as a #3-4 starting pitcher. Having the young core of Berrios (#2), Gonsalves (#3), and Mejia (#4) and seeing them perform up to their talent levels would be huge for this team. Now if they only had a true ace...

 

“I am concerned about the recent trend of rookie starters for the Twins. This includes Kyle Gibson (10 starts, 6.53 ERA), Trevor May (9 starts, 7.88 ERA), Jose Berrios (14 starts, 8.02 ERA). Mejia's first 10 starts were OK (4.93 ERA). The only good recent rookie starter I could find was Tyler Duffey (10 starts, 3.10 ERA) and it's been all downhill from here.

 

“The Twins will have to be patient with Gonsalves... sophomore years have been much better for our starters.”

 

........

 

That comment, of course, was by you. I agree with you. Patience!

[Danchat]

Danchat, I went back to the 2018 write-up of Gonsalves (he was ranked #4 in the system by TD at the time) and I found an interesting comment in the comment section:

 

“I'm hoping to see Gonsalves by July in the majors. From what I've read, it seems he'll slot in as a #3-4 starting pitcher. Having the young core of Berrios (#2), Gonsalves (#3), and Mejia (#4) and seeing them perform up to their talent levels would be huge for this team. Now if they only had a true ace...

 

“I am concerned about the recent trend of rookie starters for the Twins. This includes Kyle Gibson (10 starts, 6.53 ERA), Trevor May (9 starts, 7.88 ERA), Jose Berrios (14 starts, 8.02 ERA). Mejia's first 10 starts were OK (4.93 ERA). The only good recent rookie starter I could find was Tyler Duffey (10 starts, 3.10 ERA) and it's been all downhill from here.

 

“The Twins will have to be patient with Gonsalves... sophomore years have been much better for our starters.”

 

........

 

That comment, of course, was by you. I agree with you. Patience!

Nice, digging up my old posts and using them against me! I probably should be more patient, though I will defend myself with these two points:

 

1: I didn’t know Gonsalves topped out at 91 and regularly threw pitches in the upper 80s

2: Gonsalves developed a command problem this season, not sure if that will continue

 

So yes, I do think he’ll pitch much better in year two, but he has several issues to address. Anyways, thanks for keeping me accountable.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I think Duran has some really interesting potential. Hopefully he can carry over his success from Cedar Rapids to Ft Myers. It seems for Duran control/command will be his biggest issue, not the legitimacy of his “stuff”. I look forward to following him this year.

[joefish]

Seen a man standin' over a dead dog lyin' by the highway in a ditch

He's lookin' down kinda puzzled pokin' that dog with a stick

Got his car door flung open he's standin' out on Highway 31

Like if he stood there long enough that dog'd get up and run

Struck me kinda funny seem kinda funny sir to me

Still at the end of every hard day people find some reason to believe

[Ben Noble]

When I dug into Duran after we acquired him, this article is what really started to pique my interest in him as a prospect.

 

The gist of the article is that he started having success last season when he began fully buying into coaching and the process of transforming himself into a pitcher, rather than just a thrower. And that's a huge development for me when it comes to pitching prospects.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Nice, digging up my old posts and using them against me! I probably should be more patient, though I will defend myself with these two points:

 

1: I didn’t know Gonsalves topped out at 91 and regularly threw pitches in the upper 80s

2: Gonsalves developed a command problem this season, not sure if that will continue

 

So yes, I do think he’ll pitch much better in year two, but he has several issues to address. Anyways, thanks for keeping me accountable.

It was a little heartless, I have to admit, but I couldn’t resist. I certainly don’t want to have to account for my past assertions! (I seem to recall a strong Tulowitzki post or five). Thanks for taking it in the right spirit.

 

Gonsalves might have a lower upside than people thought a year or two ago, but, I think people are reading too much into 24IP.

[ashbury]

Seen a man standin' over a dead dog lyin' by the highway in a ditch

He's lookin' down kinda puzzled pokin' that dog with a stick

Got his car door flung open he's standin' out on Highway 31

Like if he stood there long enough that dog'd get up and run

Struck me kinda funny seem kinda funny sir to me

Still at the end of every hard day people find some reason to believe

This seems indirect. Is it a comment you'd apply to every prospect, since there's no such thing as a sure thing and yet lots of us attach our hopes? Or, do you have specific concerns about Duran, going as far as likening him to a dead dog? If the latter, would you elaborate?

[Danchat]

 

It was a little heartless, I have to admit, but I couldn’t resist. I certainly don’t want to have to account for my past assertions! (I seem to recall a strong Tulowitzki post or five). Thanks for taking it in the right spirit.

Gonsalves might have a lower upside than people thought a year or two ago, but, I think people are reading too much into 24IP.

I think one problem some of us (me) might have had is we see really good numbers in the minors, so we assume that'll transition in the majors. I remember being excited to see how AJ Achter would pitch with the Twins after a very good minor league career, but he simply didn't have MLB caliber stuff.

[operation mindcrime]

I hope Duran goes full on beast mode this year!