Article: Extension Time?

[Cody Christie]

Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are coming off their worst seasons as professionals. Kyle Gibson is one year away from free agency. Other players like Eddie Rosario and Jose Berrios broke out at the the major league level last year.

 

Does it make sense for the Twins to start working on extensions with some of their core players?Over the weekend, fans at TwinsFest were given the opportunity to ask general manager Thad Levine about multiple topics. One of the most intriguing answers was about the Twins looking to sign their younger pieces to long-term deals.

“Without getting into names, we’re actively having some conversations behind the scenes and we as a club would like nothing more than to be able to announce one, two, three of those types of extensions at some point here in spring training,” Levine said.

Here are some of the potential options for long-term contracts.

 

Byron Buxton, CF

Arbitration Eligible: 2020

Free Agent: 2023

Buxton is coming off one of the lowest points in his young career. The front office decided not to make him a September call-up and in turn, the team picked up an extra year of control over the former top prospect. Minnesota already gave him a hefty off-season raise to try and make up for the September smite. Another way to smooth the waters could be to give him some financial stability and buy out some of his free agent years. If he has a bounce-back year, next off-season his value could be even higher.

 

Miguel Sano, 3B

Arbitration Eligible: 2020

Free Agent: 2022

Sano has been dealing with on and off the field issues over the last calendar year. He was accused of assault, ran over a police officer, and wound up being sent all the way back down to High-A last year. There’s obviously some room to grow and adding veteran Nelson Cruz to the roster could help Sano reach his former all-star ability. He will reach free agency a year earlier than Buxton so it might be more pressing to sign the slugger to a longer-term deal. Minnesota is building a power line-up this year and Sano could be the biggest power bat for the team.

 

Jose Berrios, SP

Arbitration Eligible: 2020

Free Agent: 2023

Last year, Berrios made the All-Star Game for the first time and he was one of the team’s most valuable pitchers. His value might be at an all-time high so it could be in the club’s best interest to wait a year and see how he performs in 2019. He has yet to reach the 200-inning mark in any big-league season. However, he is one of the hardest working players in the system and he seems to fit the mold of the new front office. Minnesota is always short on starting pitching so it might be nice to have Berrios locked into the rotation for the great part of the next decade, even if he can’t be the team’s ace for that entire time.

 

Eddie Rosario, OF

Arbitration Eligible: 2020

Free Agent: 2022

Rosario was arguably the team’s best hitter last season and he can provide value on the defensive side of the ball as well. Minnesota has other outfield options working their way towards Target Field as also. The front office will need to decide if Rosario is part of the club’s long-term plans. He’s coming off his best big-league season; so, like Berrios, it might not be the best time to give him an extension. He’s also the oldest player on this list and he will be a free agent at age 29. It might be better to go through the year-to-year arbitration process for a player like him.

 

Kyle Gibson, SP

Free Agent: 2020

Next season could be Gibson’s last in a Twins uniform. His major league career has been full of ups and downs. He was the team’s best starter back in 2015 when he posted a 3.84 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 194.2 innings. Last year at age-30, he had an even better season with a 3.62 ERA and a 179 to 79 strikeout to walk ratio. Is Gibson finally finding himself at baseball’s highest level or is the club going to rely on some of the younger talent in the organization?

 

Other players in consideration would have to be Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. Who should be a priority for the team to sign to an extension? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[TheMatt]

I feel that a Gibson extension might remind us of the Hughes extension. Coming off a career year is not the best time to try to get a good value extension, but running out of time. I would be against it unless its crazy team friendly. If he does great, offer the QO.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I don't think Buxton extends coming off of a bad season and some ill will with the FO at this point. I believe Sano will walk and test the waters regardless. Rosario I'd like to see a 4 year deal. That would fix our costs and buy out his year 30 season, I wouldn't go further with him. Gibson, Yes, a 3 year with an option. W/o him we have a very thin rotation looking at next year.

 

Berrios would be hard to guess. I'd guess he won't sign cheap. It would need to be an overpay of sorts.

[baumannmd]

If I were the Twins GM, Berrios, Buxton, and Sano would be my priorities. I don’t see extensions for Rosario or Gibson.

 

At this point, Gibson has too few good years left. If he’d sign a 2-year deal? Done. For Rosario, too many cheap replacement options. Cave, Kiriloff, etc.

 

Buxton, even if he has a .725 OPS is a huge defender and threat on the bases.

 

Sano is a power bat who just needs to stay healthy and looks good heading in to 2019. He looks exactly like the type of player the Twins of the past would’ve spent 10 years developing, then let wall for nothing, then becomes and all-star/ future HoFer.

 

Berrios threw 202 strikeouts last season in fewer than 200 innings. He’s not Johan Santana, but he’s good. With a chance to be really good. He’s a foundation to build this rotation on. Extend him.

[Einheri]

Sign 'em all to incentive-heavy contracts that guarantee them a decent salary/lifestyle for years to come even if they get hurt during trainings and games, provides an average payout if they perform at an average level, AND overpays them a little if they perform exceptionally well.

Why not structure salaries that are mutually beneficial?

[MMMordabito]

I'm not sure if this spring is the time, but Berrios is the player that I want to stay a Twin more than any other right now.  He's shown he can be dominate, and he's just starting to mature.  As the seasons accumulate, the reoccurring issues with nerves, self-inflicted pressure and wide eyes on the big stage will become non-issues.  He'll have been-there-done-that more and more.  What I don't think will go away is his desire to compete and commitment to be the best he can be?  His routines for conditioning are well-documented. He's less of an injury risk.  Even if he did sustain and injury, I'm certain he would be well-equipped for rehab, and he would just set another goal of coming back stronger than he went out (or something along those lines).  

 

Outside of being a great athlete and player, my impression is that he is also a great person.  The Twins would be well-advised to have him as one of the major faces of this franchise.  He'd be a good role model as well for teaching youth about commitment, conditioning and setting goals.

 

I'd overpay.  Sign him up!!!

 

EDIT:

 

Also, this Kyle Freeland extension exercise piece is a good read to get a ballpark on numbers.  I don't think Berrios is at the same level yet, but it's at least food for thought on a comp.

[ahart10]

I’m all for Berrios being a Twins lifer. Rosario is a nice candidate for a big payday. Polanco has a good start going, let’s wait and see if it’s the PEDs or if he’s for real.

HUGE no on Buxton and Sano. These guys were demoted to the minors last year, and for good reason. Kepler is decidedly average and those aren’t the guys you give money. Gibson? I don’t know, I’m not a fan. I saw up thread someone compared an extension for him to the Hughes extension, and I’d have to agree with that.

[nicksaviking]

If this team isn't going to sign free agents past one year I don't see why it would matter if these guys got paid toward the peak of their value. I'd do Berrios and Rosario now if they're willing, though they may not be. So far the others haven't shown they can be consistently productive. Gibson's different, he's too old. I wouldn't be upset about an extension, but I wouldn't be expecting him to be productive past another year or so. Still, this team isn't going to have any salary issues so dead money contracts aren't going to hurt.

 

Also, Trevor May is currently very inexpensive at $900K and a free agent after 2020. Giving him a significant pay increase (relative to current earnings) over the next couple of years might convince him to be bought out of a couple free agent years. Just a dark horse extension candidate as he'd be rather painless.

[Mike Sixel]

If they don't extend or QO Gibson, who are the pitchers? It's not like they actively tried out guys last fall.....

 

Gibson, Sano, Buxton in that order. I'd consider Rosario, but if you believe in Kirriloff and Lanarch and others....maybe not. Given I have no idea what their budget is, it is hard to say with any certainty.....

[Tomj14]

 

If they don't extend or QO Gibson, who are the pitchers? It's not like they actively tried out guys last fall.....

Well we do know the pitchers they won't go after, too old, too expensive, injury prone, ones that would require trading prospects, in their prime but too expensive. I am sure I might have missed a few.

 

[ChrisKnutson]

Berrios for sure, maybe Rosario as well, but don’t count out a Kepler extension because a cheap deal now, could be huge bargain for us later. Regardless of his potential, perhaps he and his agents will decide that Kepler betting on himself may not be the safest business move. Think about it, Kepler is at a crossroads right now, why not secure your future now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Sign 'em all to incentive-heavy contracts that guarantee them a decent salary/lifestyle for years to come even if they get hurt during trainings and games, provides an average payout if they perform at an average level, AND overpays them a little if they perform exceptionally well.

Why not structure salaries that are mutually beneficial?

MLB salaries/incentives cannot be performance-based. They can only be based on playing time (games / plate appearances, innings, etc. -- although relievers can also do "games finished" which is often a shorthand for closer performance).

[Mr. Brooks]

Sign 'em all to incentive-heavy contracts that guarantee them a decent salary/lifestyle for years to come even if they get hurt during trainings and games, provides an average payout if they perform at an average level, AND overpays them a little if they perform exceptionally well.

 

Why not structure salaries that are mutually beneficial?

This is not allowed under the current CBA. Incentives for playing time is allowed. Performance based incentives are not allowed, aside from bonuses for awards.

[The Wise One]

A player that believes in themself is not going to take a team friendly contract when there is getting more and more money in arbitration. Why should Rosario, Sanyo or Berrios take a deal? Now if you see something there more than the player produced like Dozier you can get a bargain. Kepler might fit that

[Shaitan]

I'd wait to see another year of Buxton and Berrios. Rosario I think is a contender.

 

Sano is the most likely to ask for a ridiculous paycheck later, so I'd at least gauge interest in buying out 1-3 years now.

 

But there's really no need with any player to lock them up before they enter arb years.

[drivlikejehu]

I think Berrios would have to be open to an extension . . . the injury risk for pitchers is just too high to hold out if a reasonable offer is on the table. He would definitely be my #1 target.

 

Beyond him, it gets a lot dicier. I'd probably try to extend Gibson, but it's not worth doing if the price is basically the same as what it would be in free agency. With the positions players, there are major question marks with all of them . . . the 2019 season will provide additional clarity on where it would make sense to invest.

Edited January 30, 2019 by drivlikejehu

[jrod23]

Besides the NFL's no-guaranteed contracts, baseball owners have it made. Post-signing bonuses, they pay the majority of their minor league "assets" that infamous minor league salary.  To top that off now, the market over the past 2 years has been extremely slow and owner friendly at that.  Also, granted, Buxton wasn't performing, but they robbed him of free-agency by another year, which is HUGE in baseball ages.  The fact that Jimmy P. is completely pocketing the no-Mauer era is probably piquing this frustration.

 

Sorry, couldn't make the Twins Daily Gala so I couldn't buzzingly voice my frustrations.  The podcast made it sound like a good time.  I'd love to hear Cuddy's story.

 

Bottom line, ownership gets richer and us fans have to annually pay more and more to watch mediocrity at Target Field.

 

I'm sorry, I blacked out.  What did I say?

[Mike Sixel]

I think Berrios would have to be open to an extension . . . the injury risk for pitchers is just too high to hold out if a reasonable offer is on the table. He would definitely be my #1 target.

 

Beyond him, it gets a lot dicier. I'd probably try to extend Gibson, but it's not worth doing if the price is basically the same as what it would be in free agency. With the positions players, there are major question marks with all of them . . . the 2019 season will provide additional clarity on where it would make sense to invest.

Are there better free agents available?

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

 . . the 2019 season will provide additional clarity on where it would make sense to invest.

And if the performance isn't there does that mean a 50 mil payroll in 2020?

[ewen21]

 

I’m all for Berrios being a Twins lifer. Rosario is a nice candidate for a big payday. Polanco has a good start going, let’s wait and see if it’s the PEDs or if he’s for real.
HUGE no on Buxton and Sano. These guys were demoted to the minors last year, and for good reason. Kepler is decidedly average and those aren’t the guys you give money. Gibson? I don’t know, I’m not a fan. I saw up thread someone compared an extension for him to the Hughes extension, and I’d have to agree with that.

Precisely what I think on all points.

[ewen21]

 

Are there better free agents available?

 

Is the most important question to ask?

 

The real question needs to be: "do we invest in these guys long term?"

As of right now, I am only interested in extending Berrios and Rosario.  The others need to show me more.  

[Kelly Vance]

If it were my team, I would say to Berrios and Rosario and Polanco that they figure in loooooong term. I''d extend them 4 years with increasing pay. I would project a best case scenario and buy in.  That sends a message down the line.

 

I'd say to Gibby, "Look you have proven yourself. Stay with us for 4 more years at market. And stay cool. Sorry about that arbitration thing."

 

Then I'd say to Buck and Miggie, "Look guys, everyone says you  have something to prove. But I am betting on you doing that. We have a 4 year window here. You are still young. Sign for 4 more yrears, and make good. Then go FA if you want to. By then you will have security and a track record for the big payday." 

 

I would extend Rogers for, you guessed it, 4 years. Then I'd look around for anyone else that wants to extend for 4 years. Maybe Nick, Tom, Seth... what do ya say guys?  

 

And for God's sake, give Jake Reed a chance. He was lights out at the end of last year. 

 

 

[ChrisKnutson]

If we decide to extend Kepler we should model his deal after the D-back’s extension of Ketel Marte in 2018.

[Dakota Diver]

The Twins have been paying Buxton major league salary to be one of the worst hitters in baseball! Also he’s been on the DL way to much which used up MLB time and the Twins have to eat it! I don’t think the Twins have treated him unfairly. Start producing and EARN a spot on the roster. At this point he hasn’t earned anything.

[Mike Sixel]

Is the most important question to ask?

 

The real question needs to be: "do we invest in these guys long term?"

As of right now, I am only interested in extending Berrios and Rosario.  The others need to show me more.

 

That was in reply to a post about spending free agent money next year to get pitching..... If they don't sign Gibson, who are the pitchers next year?

[ahart10]

That was in reply to a post about spending free agent money next year to get pitching..... If they don't sign Gibson, who are the pitchers next year?

Berrios, Mejia, Gonzo, Romero, Stewart, Littell, DeJong, Thorpe. It’s true, not a lot of mlb innings there. It’s not like Gibson or Odor are irreplaceable, or can’t be upgraded through FA or trade next offseason.

[Tomj14]

 

Berrios, Mejia, Gonzo, Romero, Stewart, Littell, DeJong, Thorpe. It’s true, not a lot of mlb innings there. It’s not like Gibson or Odor are irreplaceable, or can’t be upgraded through FA or trade next offseason.

Gibson has been one of the top 10 pitchers in the American league the last 1 1/2, that isn't irreplaceable?

[killertwinfan]

Presently the only one in this lot that makes obvious sense is Gibson. I would love to get Berrios, but if he takes another step forward this year his value would sky rocket, so I see his agent advising him to wait.  But injury risk can be a little scary.  As far as our fielders, probably only Rosario is trustable at this point.  

Edited January 30, 2019 by killertwinfan

[ahart10]

Gibson has been one of the top 10 pitchers in the American league the last 1 1/2, that isn't irreplaceable?

We’re just gonna have to disagree on that.

[Brandon]

Berrios and Gibson for sure need an extention. Rosario deserves one too. I want to say Sano and Buxton but the reality is they need to earn it first or sign below market value deal which they shouldnt. Unless Kepler breaks out he will be replaced pretty soon here. Taylor Rogers could get an extention. May is a curoius case. Maybe a 2 year extention with an option.