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Article: Revisiting Realmuto as a Twins Trade Target


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  On 1/29/2019 at 4:56 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I forgot about the option. Yes, it's better than nothing.

It's better than a two-year contract, as well.

 

  On 1/29/2019 at 5:41 PM, RatherBeGolfing said:

It's a start, sadly that appears to be where we will end up though

Even a positive is taken as evidence for the opposite. :)

 

Not that I disagree, of course. Cruz would be acceptable as the second-best signing of the off-season.

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  On 1/29/2019 at 5:23 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Not quite right......because Garver will play about the same amount with Realmuto as Castro, so the delta is between Castro and Realmuto.....so the delta is more like 2.5 WAR.

Fangraphs is projecting almost 100 extra PA for Realmuto over Castro, and a 2.1 WAR advantage for Realmuto.

 

Prorated, if Realmuto only played as much as Castro is projected, there would only be about 1.4 WAR between them.

 

If you think Castro would play less, and Garver/Astudillo more, it could be an even smaller difference, because Garver and Astudillo both project better (on a WAR per PA rate basis) than Castro.

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  On 1/29/2019 at 5:23 PM, Mike Sixel said:

Not quite right......because Garver will play about the same amount with Realmuto as Castro, so the delta is between Castro and Realmuto.....so the delta is more like 2.5 WAR.

 

But, the real point is........they can afford to add a great player if they want to. 

 

I expect Garver to catch way more games than Castro this year.

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  On 1/29/2019 at 5:52 PM, markos said:

Yeah, I probably overstated with 3-4 WAR improvement. But it depends a lot on how one divvies up playing time (Castro is projected to be the worst, even though he gets most PAs) and if one factors in pitch framing (Garver is one of the worst in baseball; Realmuto is above-average). 2-3 WAR is probably more accurate.

If one trusts the Castro projection, and assumes he's a similar framer to Realmuto, the projection difference is just 1.4-1.8 WAR (based on 416-512 PA).

 

If one doesn't trust the Castro projection, you are right that the gap could widen with more playing time for Garver (based on framing). But the gap could also hold steady or even narrow with Astudillo -- Fangraphs said "BP’s framing metrics graded his minor-league receiving in a positive manner":

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/another-fascinating-thing-about-willians-astudillo/

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  On 1/28/2019 at 12:04 PM, old nurse said:

Grandal's salary for 2019 is 16 million. He signed a contract with a mutual option and a 2.25 Million buyout.  2/32 is not such a steep drop from 3/39 or 4/50 which the Mets reportedly offered.

Actually 3/39 compared to 2/32 is a huge gap. 18mil guaranteed.

 

I've read and heard that the Twins offer was 2/26 though and no way was that competitive.If we really wanted Grandal, which I would have greatly supported, then we would have needed to do more than Milwaukee on the AAV or added a year. Your aren't going to get the kind of quality that Grandal is by lowballing however. tbh 13mil AAV was lowballing. I can imagine Falvine received a very quick click when they made that offer.

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  On 1/29/2019 at 6:25 PM, spycake said:

If one trusts the Castro projection, and assumes he's a similar framer to Realmuto, the projection difference is just 1.4-1.8 WAR (based on 416-512 PA).

If one doesn't trust the Castro projection, you are right that the gap could widen with more playing time for Garver (based on framing). But the gap could also hold steady or even narrow with Astudillo -- Fangraphs said "BP’s framing metrics graded his minor-league receiving in a positive manner":

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/another-fascinating-thing-about-willians-astudillo/

I trust (as far as one can) the Castro projection, so I think that part is fine. I don't trust Steamer's projection of Garver - BP had him at 0.3 WARP last year vs 1.3 for Fangraphs, based on dismal framing numbers. So if Garver is actually closer to replacement level than an above-average like Steamer is suggesting, then having those backup PAs go Castro instead (who is better than Garver when including framing) is carryover improvement. Astudillo is a wildcard in this exercise...

 

I'm not exactly sure how to model the PA difference. Castro is likely to bat 8th or 9th. Realmuto could bat as high as 2nd, and likely top 5. So even if they play the same number of games, Realmuto could get 50+ more PAs. But most of those extra PAs will come at the expense of other players in the lineup, so it isn't as simple as subtracting the difference between Castro and Realmuto's projections.

 

 

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  On 1/29/2019 at 7:44 PM, markos said:

I trust (as far as one can) the Castro projection, so I think that part is fine. I don't trust Steamer's projection of Garver - BP had him at 0.3 WARP last year vs 1.3 for Fangraphs, based on dismal framing numbers. So if Garver is actually closer to replacement level than an above-average like Steamer is suggesting, then having those backup PAs go Castro instead (who is better than Garver when including framing) is carryover improvement. Astudillo is a wildcard in this exercise...

 

I'm not exactly sure how to model the PA difference. Castro is likely to bat 8th or 9th. Realmuto could bat as high as 2nd, and likely top 5. So even if they play the same number of games, Realmuto could get 50+ more PAs. But most of those extra PAs will come at the expense of other players in the lineup, so it isn't as simple as subtracting the difference between Castro and Realmuto's projections.

Looks like we're gonna need a bigger napkin (to calculate on the back of). :)

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  On 1/29/2019 at 4:33 PM, markos said:

That is probably true in the abstract, but I have a hard time seeing what pitcher is going to be available over the next 12 months. The top-20 projected pitchers for 2019 all play for the Red Sox, Mets, Nationals, Astros, Indians, Yankees, Phillies, Rays, Rockies, Pirates, Dodgers, Diamondbacks. Of that group, the only team that is remotely rebuilding right now is Diamondbacks, but I'm not sure that Greinke (age and contract) or Robby Ray (health, limited team control) are pitchers that would merit that kind of trade package. The Rockies might blow things up if this year goes poorly, but they are a weird organization that is hard to get a read on. Otherwise, every other team is making moves that indicate that they are expecting to compete in 2020. 

 

The other thing is that a determination made today about whether the team is competitive is kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Right now, Fangraphs is projecting the Twins to be a 83-win team in 2019, currently 7th in the AL. Guessing at the win distribution around that mean, it implies that there is something like a 50% chance that the Twins either hold or sell at the 2019 deadline, and maybe just a 20% chance that they are a strong buyers. It would kind of defeat the point if a pitcher like Thor did become available in July but the Twins aren't buying. And if they sell/hold and end up <=83 wins for the season, won't that be used to argue that they aren't true contenders and should sit out the 2020 offseason as well? But add 3-4 WAR from Realmuto (who is absolutely available today), and that vaults the Twins ahead of the Rays and Angels, cuts 40% of the Indian's advantage, and the Twins are most likely buyers at the deadline. And from that inflection point, it isn't hard to see them make a run at 90 wins. That may not be enough to win the division, but it certainly provides enough evidence that the team is a contender and can be built upon going into the 2020 season.

 

Things change quickly in baseball though.  I agree with much of what you say, but I bet there are trade targets out there more appealing than this.  And if there aren't....then I'm ok holding off.  I don't want the team to make moves for the sake of it either.  

 

Kiriloff and Graterol are pretty valuable chips.  If I'm pushing them into the middle of the table, I want to feel really good about what I'm getting back.  And, frankly, I'm pretty ok with Castro/Garver/Austidillo.

 

That's not where I'm pushing all-in to help.  There are other places we can gain more from making a splash.

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I’d love the Twins to be stronger at catcher, but I’m more interested in Kiriloff’s potential than I am in Realmuto. I’m happy to sacrifice some offense at 2 if I can get a guy who calls a game well and can throw out runners at 2nd.

 

It is an intriguing idea, but at the end of the day, I just think AK is too likely to be a really special player to swap out in 2019 for a great catcher. I might be wrong/stupid, but that’s one of the many reasons I’m not a big league GM.

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Kirilloff and Castro for Realmuto. Gamble yes. But getting arguably the best catcher in MLB and extending the lineup... Worth the Gamble at least to me. We have to understand Kirilloff "may" be great or he may be Kepler... nice but replaceable. If we have the opportunity to get a proven player who can help us take the next step this year and for the next couple go get it. Not likely but ..... 

 

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  On 1/30/2019 at 4:54 AM, specialiststeve said:

Kirilloff and Castro for Realmuto. Gamble yes. But getting arguably the best catcher in MLB and extending the lineup... Worth the Gamble at least to me. We have to understand Kirilloff "may" be great or he may be Kepler... nice but replaceable. If we have the opportunity to get a proven player who can help us take the next step this year and for the next couple go get it. Not likely but .....

Asking Miami to take Castro back would likely require another pretty good prospect or two. Would be better off just eating the money and saving the additional prospects.

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Not to be negative, but what's the point for trading for Realmuto when we don't have a solid rotation along with a closer we can trust for starters. Along with so many questions with the hopes of seeing our offense bounce back after so many "off years" last season from so many players. Along with a solid defensive infield and an actual bench the Twins should not be giving up any top prospects to sign him.

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  On 1/30/2019 at 5:07 AM, darin617 said:

Not to be negative, but what's the point for trading for Realmuto when we don't have a solid rotation along with a closer we can trust for starters. Along with so many questions with the hopes of seeing our offense bounce back after so many "off years" last season from so many players. Along with a solid defensive infield and an actual bench the Twins should not be giving up any top prospects to sign him.

Because it's very hard to fill every hole all at once. I don't believe in the self fulfilling prophecy that this team can't fill holes long term because other holes aren't filled.

 

Realmuto is under control for 2 more seasons, and it's not against the rules to offer him an extension if he's traded here.

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  On 1/30/2019 at 5:35 PM, Vanimal46 said:

Because it's very hard to fill every hole all at once. I don't believe in the self fulfilling prophecy that this team can't fill holes long term because other holes aren't filled.

 

Realmuto is under control for 2 more seasons, and it's not against the rules to offer him an extension if he's traded here.

for the prospect cost of trading for 2 years of Realmuto, I’d rather get a big time young stud pitcher.

 

Agreed entirely on the why

Edited by Sconnie
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Darren Wolfson of ESPN podcast

Minnesota was willing to go to three years at a total of $13-15MM per season in order to bring Grandal aboard. Grandal’s camp, however, told the Twins quickly and definitively that he wasn’t interested in signing there. Given that Grandal landed one state over in Wisconsin, it’s unlikely that geography played much of a role, so perhaps signing with a clearer contender was a priority.

 

Interesting that he preferred 18.25M for 1 season to a 45M/3 year deal.  He had a good 2018, I don't think his value will go up with another good year.  There's a decent chance that he left some money on the table 3 years from now.  He must have really not liked something about Minnesota.

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Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but the Marlins are denying any interested team a chance to negotiate an extension with him before a trade is made. 

 

Risky business. But I would offer any package not involving Royce/Kiriloff. 

 

Graterol, Rooker and Gordon might tempt them. 

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  On 1/31/2019 at 10:57 PM, cmoss84 said:

Not sure if anyone has mentioned this, but the Marlins are denying any interested team a chance to negotiate an extension with him before a trade is made. 

 

Risky business. But I would offer any package not involving Royce/Kiriloff. 

 

Graterol, Rooker and Gordon might tempt them. 

 

I've been trying to figure out why they'd do this, and can't. 

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  On 1/31/2019 at 11:02 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I've been trying to figure out why they'd do this, and can't. 

Why the Marlins would do this or the Twins?

 

Might be the best offer the Marlins get. Teams seem to be backing off a bit (although I keep waiting for a Verdugo/Ruiz offer from Dodgers). 

 

Twins do it because it might be the last time in a while the division is down...and very winnable. Might push us to the top of the central...if we can sign one damn pitcher worth anything. 

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  On 1/31/2019 at 11:09 PM, cmoss84 said:

Why the Marlins would do this or the Twins?

 

Might be the best offer the Marlins get. Teams seem to be backing off a bit (although I keep waiting for a Verdugo/Ruiz offer from Dodgers). 

 

Twins do it because it might be the last time in a while the division is down...and very winnable. Might push us to the top of the central...if we can sign one damn pitcher worth anything. 

 

why the Marlins won't allow teams to negotiate an extension. that decreases their leverage, and their likely return.

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  On 1/31/2019 at 11:24 PM, Mike Sixel said:

why the Marlins won't allow teams to negotiate an extension. that decreases their leverage, and their likely return.

Could just mean they're just not that far along yet in trade talks. Or they know Realmuto won't sign an extension, so it would be pointless to agree to a trade contingent on an extension.

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  On 1/31/2019 at 11:02 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I've been trying to figure out why they'd do this, and can't.

 

I’d guess it means they already know Realmuto won’t sign one and they’d lose leverage if he was forced to flat out tell a team it was never going to be an option while they control him.
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  On 1/31/2019 at 6:50 PM, SomeGuy said:

Darren Wolfson of ESPN podcast

Minnesota was willing to go to three years at a total of $13-15MM per season in order to bring Grandal aboard. Grandal’s camp, however, told the Twins quickly and definitively that he wasn’t interested in signing there. Given that Grandal landed one state over in Wisconsin, it’s unlikely that geography played much of a role, so perhaps signing with a clearer contender was a priority.

 

Interesting that he preferred 18.25M for 1 season to a 45M/3 year deal.  He had a good 2018, I don't think his value will go up with another good year.  There's a decent chance that he left some money on the table 3 years from now.  He must have really not liked something about Minnesota.

 

These are big boys looking across the table at each other, playing big boy games. 

 

https://nypost.com/2019/01/15/yasmani-grandal-why-i-turned-down-mets-60-million-offer/

 

https://www.southsidesox.com/2019/1/23/18195182/white-sox-yasmani-grandal-free-agent-collusion-confusion

 

 

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  On 2/2/2019 at 1:55 PM, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Twins have signed C/1B Wilin Rosario. He's been in Japan for a couple seasons. He formerly posted some nice numbers in Colorado. What does anyone know or remember about his game?

Wilin Rosario was considered a poor defensive catcher, and that was 5 years ago. Looks like the Rockies basically quit using him at catcher in his final MLB season (2015), and I am guessing he hasn't played it much since. This seems like strictly a Rochester 1B/DH reinforcement, kind of like Jeff Clement a few years ago.

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  On 2/2/2019 at 2:52 PM, spycake said:

Wilin Rosario was considered a poor defensive catcher, and that was 5 years ago. Looks like the Rockies basically quit using him at catcher in his final MLB season (2015), and I am guessing he hasn't played it much since. This seems like strictly a Rochester 1B/DH reinforcement, kind of like Jeff Clement a few years ago.

Not to mention, his "nice" numbers in the majors were inflated by good home stats in Colorado and an OPS in the .600s on the road. He has really low odds of being called up for any reason in 2019.

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  On 2/2/2019 at 4:02 PM, ashburyjohn said:

Not to mention, his "nice" numbers in the majors were inflated by good home stats  in Colorado and an OPS in the .600s on the road. He has really low odds of being called up for any reason in 2019.

Thanks guys. I was thinking the same that it is just a Rochester depth move, and maybe just another catcher for ST as he also received an invite in his deal.

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