Article: Revisiting Realmuto as a Twins Trade Target

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I remember when, just a couple of years a ago..... Jonathan Lucroy was the Realmuto du jour. How quickly his stock was not even close. 

Keep in mind, Lucroy wasn't traded until he was already 30 years old. Realmuto isn't quite yet 28. (It might be a data point against an extension, more than against a trade.)

[mlhouse]

No way do I give up Kirilloff for Realmuto.   IF the Twins are ever going to be good, Kirilloff needs to be good. 

 

Realmuto is a good catcher, but a team that has him as their best hitter is a 58-103 team.  So, if you trade away the best pure hitter in your minor league system for this level of a hitter/catcher I just don't think that is the best utilization of your assets.

 

The only way I do a trade like that is if it isn't centered on Lewis or Alex.   Rooker is about the best player I would include and that is debatable, and the only reason I trade him is that we "stacked" the defensive spectrum Rooker fits to the extent that he isn't going to see the majors this season, and it can also be argued that getting ost of CJ Cron's 2018 is about what our expectations for ROoker should be.

 

So, maybe Rooker, Arreaz, and a mid-prospect arm would be a respectable trade.

[nicksaviking]

 

Keep in mind, Lucroy wasn't traded until he was already 30 years old. Realmuto isn't quite yet 28. (It might be a data point against an extension, more than against a trade.)

 

Mauer, Posey and Lucroy all seemed to take a nosedive in their age 31 season. I'd bet that Realmuto is still decent for a couple more years, but I agree, I wouldn't want to pick up the check for his free agent contract or extension when he gets there.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd certainly entertain this idea, but I'd be more inclined to get a big-time starting pitcher if I'm trading away Kirilloff. Noah Syndergaard?

 

 

The reported price tag for Realmuto would get you someone like Kluber.  

 

I disagree. I don't think a Kirilloff-led package would get you either Syndergaard or Kluber right now. Those teams are trying to win (and in Kluber's case, his team is in direct competition with the Twins).

 

I think if you change this from an abstract thought to reality, you will find there are few if any pitchers on that level who would be available for a Kirilloff-led package.

 

(Edit to add: I know Kirilloff raked in 2018 and is ranked well, but he is also a corner player who has yet to play in AA. I think he is a clear step below up-the-middle top prospects like Lewis, which is probably the minimum prospect quality that would be required to pry Syndergaard or Kluber right now.)

Edited January 28, 2019 by spycake

[nicksaviking]

 

I disagree. I don't think a Kirilloff-led package would get you either Syndergaard or Kluber right now. Those teams are trying to win (and in Kluber's case, his team is in direct competition with the Twins).

 

I think if you change this from an abstract thought to reality, you will find there are few if any pitchers on that level who would be available for a Kirilloff-led package.

 

I think he was referring to a hypothetical situation. I agree, stud pitchers aren't available currently. It's hard to count on teams rebuilding in the offseason, some GMs and owners just don't see their teams in the same light as the rest of the league.

 

But my money is that the Mets pitchers will be available this July. They've made some moves but that team looks like they are primed for disappointment. Perhaps that's based on little other than them hiring an agent to be their GM, but my spidey sense tells me it's a team fated for dysfunction.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But my money is that the Mets pitchers will be available this July. They've made some moves but that team looks like they are primed for disappointment. Perhaps that's based on little other than them hiring an agent to be their GM, but my spidey sense tells me it's a team fated for dysfunction.

I don't know, we've been hearing about Mets pitchers coming available forever. But the Mets have the resources to consistently reload, I don't think you can really count on them to sell.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I know Kirilloff could be the next Yelich -- but it's worth noting that, until last season, Yelich never really achieved much more than what Realmuto is doing right now, and is projected to do this season. There's still value in that, of course, but it's not as lopsided as you might think.

 

Also, Yelich didn't achieve that until year 5 of team control. It also took an extension to make Yelich really valuable. Can the current front office do that?

[h2oface]

 

But my money is that the Mets pitchers will be available this July. They've made some moves but that team looks like they are primed for disappointment. Perhaps that's based on little other than them hiring an agent to be their GM, but my spidey sense tells me it's a team fated for dysfunction.

 

That agent to GM was smart enough to sign Wilson Ramos to a great value deal. Something our conventionally promoted and hired FO failed to do..... and their spidey sense brought us Morrison, Duke, Lynn, Belisle, Kinley, Wilson, and Odorizzi and Reed (for their worst seasons)..... and gave away Pressly. My spidey sense tells me that Parker and Pineda and Cron will similarly disappoint. I do have hopes for Schoop. That's something.

Edited January 28, 2019 by h2oface

[Riverbrian]

 

I disagree. I don't think a Kirilloff-led package would get you either Syndergaard or Kluber right now. Those teams are trying to win (and in Kluber's case, his team is in direct competition with the Twins).

 

I think if you change this from an abstract thought to reality, you will find there are few if any pitchers on that level who would be available for a Kirilloff-led package.

 

(Edit to add: I know Kirilloff raked in 2018 and is ranked well, but he is also a corner player who has yet to play in AA. I think he is a clear step below up-the-middle top prospects like Lewis, which is probably the minimum prospect quality that would be required to pry Syndergaard or Kluber right now.)

 

I can't speak for Tom but I don't believe he or I mentioned Kirilloff specifically. I know that I didn't. 

 

My point is that I'm under the impression that "someone like" Kluber (Tom Mentioned Syndergaard) is going to be a similar price to the price tag to acquire Realmuto in a trade. I don't know for sure but if I'm close to right... I'd rather spend that "Limited Resource" on a Kluber or Syndergaard.

 

Not even sure if those guys are actually available for acquisition. I just won't pay the position scarcity price for elite catching.  

[Vanimal46]

I think Kirilloff's trade value as a minor leaguer is at its peak right now. It's a great time to think about selling high on him. For him to rank higher than 10 he's going to have to mash nearly identical stats in AA as he did in A/A+. A tall order to ask.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Vanimal46

[Otto von Ballpark]

The Marlins have a long history of dealing players, often for less than inspiring returns.

 

I think we can all agree that we'd like to see the Twins involved, regardless of what price we are comfortable with.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I can't speak for Tom but I don't believe he or I mentioned Kirilloff specifically. I know that I didn't.

 

Do you think Realmuto will fetch significantly more than Kirilloff? I've thought that in the past, but after Kirilloff's 2018, and the fact that they are the Marlins, I am not so sure. I think they could be a match.

[Otto von Ballpark]

My point is that I'm under the impression that "someone like" Kluber (Tom Mentioned Syndergaard) is going to be a similar price to the price tag to acquire Realmuto in a trade. I don't know for sure but if I'm close to right... I'd rather spend that "Limited Resource" on a Kluber or Syndergaard.

 

Not even sure if those guys are actually available for acquisition. I just won't pay the position scarcity price for elite catching.

If those ace pitchers aren't available, then it's kind of beside the point, isn't it?

 

The point of my response was, if you are really considering pulling the trigger on Realmuto (at whatever price), but you also think "man, I'd rather have an ace for the same price" -- you might still be better off trading for Realmuto, rather than waiting for an ace that may never come.

 

Of course, it doesn't sound like you are really considering trading for Realmuto at this price. Which is defensible too, but it doesn't really have anything to do with aces.

[jorgenswest]

The Marlins have held onto Realmuto demanding an elite prospect. The Twins are s fit.

 

The Twins should strongly consider this deal contingent on a three year extension with Realmuto. They should front load it the first two years. It will be expensive but the Twins should pay up.

[Riverbrian]

 

Do you think Realmuto will fetch significantly more than Kirilloff? I've thought that in the past, but after Kirilloff's 2018, and the fact that they are the Marlins, I am not so sure. I think they could be a match.

 

I tend not to play in those waters because I can only base the market on what actually happens and I purposely try not form impressions of players on the farm that haven't faced major league competition yet. 

 

Based on what is happening... The value of a prospect has never been higher in my opinion. The Ivy league GM's across baseball (That wasn't a slam... they all seem to be from the Ivy league now). Seem to have placed enormous value on years of control and the free agents are falling by the wayside. You simply can't get Torres for a Chapman rental anymore. JP Crawford is now somehow worth Segura, Nicasio and Pazos. Yeah I know... Santana was thrown into the deal. 

 

The Dodgers, The Yankees, The Giants we're teams who would normally cough up prospects for experienced talent and they are not doing it anymore it seems. 

 

So if I had to guess... Nobody wants to give up their top prospects and are trying to get Realmuto for a the next level prospect or prospects and the Marlins of course want the top prospects so we all have to wait for someone to blink. This game of chicken has been going on for awhile and demands would probably be lowered to a package of 2nd level prospects... so... I think Kirilloff and prospect #12 in our system gets it done. 

 

Just guessing of course but I'm still not making the deal.    

[Riverbrian]

 

If those ace pitchers aren't available, then it's kind of beside the point, isn't it?

The point of my response was, if you are really considering pulling the trigger on Realmuto (at whatever price), but you also think "man, I'd rather have an ace for the same price" -- you might still be better off trading for Realmuto, rather than waiting for an ace that may never come.

Of course, it doesn't sound like you are really considering trading for Realmuto at this price. Which is defensible too, but it doesn't really have anything to do with aces.

 

It's insert name here. I've heard that everybody has a price so who knows. 

 

You are more informed than I when it comes to prospects. I tip my hat to you so... What do you think the Twins would have to pay to acquire Realmuto? Realistically.  

 

Once you come up with that... Offer that same package to every team in the league and what do you feel would shake loose from each club. 

[nater79a]

So, Ken Rosenthal seems to indicate Miami wants Mejia and Morejon (#26 and #46 on MLBPipeline top 100) plus a MLB ready outfielder in Margot for Realmuto.   What's the equivalent of that for the Twins - Kirilloff, Graterol and Kepler?    Seems steep.

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by nater79a

[TheLeviathan]

If the price tag is Kiriloff and Graterol, I think I'd prefer to look elsewhere.    I feel like that kind of package could land a pretty damn good pitcher and I'm more interested in that anyway.

[Danchat]

 

I think Kirilloff's trade value as a minor leaguer is at its peak right now. It's a great time to think about selling high on him. For him to rank higher than 10 he's going to have to mash nearly identical stats in AA as he did in A/A+. A tall order to ask.

I dunno, when it comes to a more marginal prospect, trading them at their peak value would be a good idea (one example I can think of is the Yankees shipping us Littell after a great season at AA). But when it comes to a guy like Kiriloff... nope. I'd hang on to the prospects with star potential, and once we're contenders, we can talk about acquiring guys like Realmuto with high-level prospects.

[markos]

 

If the price tag is Kiriloff and Graterol, I think I'd prefer to look elsewhere.    I feel like that kind of package could land a pretty damn good pitcher and I'm more interested in that anyway.

That is probably true in the abstract, but I have a hard time seeing what pitcher is going to be available over the next 12 months. The top-20 projected pitchers for 2019 all play for the Red Sox, Mets, Nationals, Astros, Indians, Yankees, Phillies, Rays, Rockies, Pirates, Dodgers, Diamondbacks. Of that group, the only team that is remotely rebuilding right now is Diamondbacks, but I'm not sure that Greinke (age and contract) or Robby Ray (health, limited team control) are pitchers that would merit that kind of trade package. The Rockies might blow things up if this year goes poorly, but they are a weird organization that is hard to get a read on. Otherwise, every other team is making moves that indicate that they are expecting to compete in 2020. 

 

The other thing is that a determination made today about whether the team is competitive is kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Right now, Fangraphs is projecting the Twins to be a 83-win team in 2019, currently 7th in the AL. Guessing at the win distribution around that mean, it implies that there is something like a 50% chance that the Twins either hold or sell at the 2019 deadline, and maybe just a 20% chance that they are a strong buyers. It would kind of defeat the point if a pitcher like Thor did become available in July but the Twins aren't buying. And if they sell/hold and end up <=83 wins for the season, won't that be used to argue that they aren't true contenders and should sit out the 2020 offseason as well? But add 3-4 WAR from Realmuto (who is absolutely available today), and that vaults the Twins ahead of the Rays and Angels, cuts 40% of the Indian's advantage, and the Twins are most likely buyers at the deadline. And from that inflection point, it isn't hard to see them make a run at 90 wins. That may not be enough to win the division, but it certainly provides enough evidence that the team is a contender and can be built upon going into the 2020 season.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reports interest in Craig Kimbrell by the Twins over the last 24 hours. What have you heard about this?

[Mike Sixel]

That is probably true in the abstract, but I have a hard time seeing what pitcher is going to be available over the next 12 months. The top-20 projected pitchers for 2019 all play for the Red Sox, Mets, Nationals, Astros, Indians, Yankees, Phillies, Rays, Rockies, Pirates, Dodgers, Diamondbacks. Of that group, the only team that is remotely rebuilding right now is Diamondbacks, but I'm not sure that Greinke (age and contract) or Robby Ray (health, limited team control) are pitchers that would merit that kind of trade package. The Rockies might blow things up if this year goes poorly, but they are a weird organization that is hard to get a read on. Otherwise, every other team is making moves that indicate that they are expecting to compete in 2020.

 

The other thing is that a determination made today about whether the team is competitive is kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Right now, Fangraphs is projecting the Twins to be a 83-win team in 2019, currently 7th in the AL. Guessing at the win distribution around that mean, it implies that there is something like a 50% chance that the Twins either hold or sell at the 2019 deadline, and maybe just a 20% chance that they are a strong buyers. It would kind of defeat the point if a pitcher like Thor did become available in July but the Twins aren't buying. And if they sell/hold and end up <=83 wins for the season, won't that be used to argue that they aren't true contenders and should sit out the 2020 offseason as well? But add 3-4 WAR from Realmuto (who is absolutely available today), and that vaults the Twins ahead of the Rays and Angels, cuts 40% of the Indian's advantage, and the Twins are most likely buyers at the deadline. And from that inflection point, it isn't hard to see them make a run at 90 wins. That may not be enough to win the division, but it certainly provides enough evidence that the team is a contender and can be built upon going into the 2020 season.

People ignore the self fulfilling prophecy all the time. Don't add great players, then say, see, they weren't ready.... All we are asking for is using their assets on two established players. Heck, start with one. Not on a one year deal.

[ashbury]

Heck, start with one. Not on a one year deal.

Nelson Cruz is under control for two years. That's a start.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Nelson Cruz is under control for two years. That's a start.

 

I forgot about the option. Yes, it's better than nothing. I'm not in love that it is a DH, but it is what it is.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

People ignore the self fulfilling prophecy all the time. Don't add great players, then say, see, they weren't ready.... All we are asking for is using their assets on two established players. Heck, start with one. Not on a one year deal.

In the 2000's we were told "don't add better pieces because we are already good and winning divisions". 2011-2018 comes along and we are told that"since we are not good at this time and not in a position to compete don't add good pieces". Now 2019 comes along and we are told"that we need to see what our core has before we can add good pieces". 

 

There will forever be an excuse for this team not to add good to great pieces to our mix. The reason behind that excuse has been and remains that we are cheap.

[Otto von Ballpark]

But add 3-4 WAR from Realmuto (who is absolutely available today), and that vaults the Twins ahead of the Rays and Angels, cuts 40% of the Indian's advantage, and the Twins are most likely buyers at the deadline.

FWIW, while Fangraphs projects Realmuto at 3.6 WAR, they also project the Twins current catching group at 2.5 WAR. So adding Realmuto may only net us 1.1 WAR by those projections.

 

Although there are certainly more factors that can be considered beyond just the projections. And indeed, the difference in actual catcher WAR between the Marlins and Twins was 2.9 for 2018.

[Mike Sixel]

 

FWIW, while Fangraphs projects Realmuto at 3.6 WAR, they also project the Twins current catching group at 2.5 WAR. So adding Realmuto may only net us 1.1 WAR by those projections.

Although there are certainly more factors that can be considered beyond just the projections. And indeed, the difference in actual catcher WAR between the Marlins and Twins was 2.9 for 2018.

 

Not quite right......because Garver will play about the same amount with Realmuto as Castro, so the delta is between Castro and Realmuto.....so the delta is more like 2.5 WAR.

 

But, the real point is........they can afford to add a great player if they want to. 

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

Nelson Cruz is under control for two years. That's a start.

 

It's a start, sadly that appears to be where we will end up though

[markos]

 

FWIW, while Fangraphs projects Realmuto at 3.6 WAR, they also project the Twins current catching group at 2.5 WAR. So adding Realmuto may only net us 1.1 WAR by those projections.

Although there are certainly more factors that can be considered beyond just the projections. And indeed, the difference in actual catcher WAR between the Marlins and Twins was 2.9 for 2018.

Yeah, I probably overstated with 3-4 WAR improvement. But it depends a lot on how one divvies up playing time (Castro is projected to be the worst, even though he gets most PAs) and if one factors in pitch framing (Garver is one of the worst in baseball; Realmuto is above-average). 2-3 WAR is probably more accurate.

[jkcarew]

If there was even one more year on Realmuto's contract, offering Kirilloff would be easily justifiable, IMO. Some of the arguments here to devalue Realmuto...catchers don't play enough game, get hurt too often, decline early, etc....those are arguments that make a guy like Realmuto...healthy and just entering his prime...look even more valuable, not less.

 

As it is, with just the two years...I would expect the Twins to move the line somewhere below their number 2 prospect. But I do hope they are considering all the possibilities.