Article: Don’t Sleep on Jorge Polanco

[Thiéres Rabelo]

Just last week, in his article about Trevor Hildenberger’s role with the Twins this year, Tom Froemming mentioned how many Comeback Player of the Year Award candidates the Twins have for 2019. One of them is Jorge Polanco, who appears to be a bit under the radar in a lot of Twins fans discussions. But I think he is bound to surprise a lot of people that may have been taking him for granted.Last year’s 80-game suspension for testing positive for Stanozolol might have done a number on Polanco’s reputation in the eyes of many Twins fans. It wouldn’t be crazy to assume the same for part of the club ownership and front office. It’s not crazy to imagine he might be one of the main trade pieces Minnesota has, but that might also be true for a lot of guys, such as Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sanó.

 

Perhaps not giving “Chulo” a chance to prove he belongs in the Twin Cities could be too hasty. Even playing only a half season last year – by the way, he played 77 out of 82 possible games – Polanco managed to post some of the team’s best rate-based numbers. He slashed .288/.345/.427, which would have tied Rosario for best batting average, ranked third in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging.

 

Back in 2017, Polanco had a terrible year for most of the season, but then he rose after the trade deadline and had an outstanding second half. He slashed .293/.359/.511 in his final 63 games of that year, including an astonishing .373/.413/.686 in 27 August games, with 10 of his 13 total home runs coming after Aug. 1. He also got on base twice in the Twins' only postseason game since 2010.

 

When putting together Polanco’s numbers since Aug. 1, 2017, you find out that he has been one of Minnesota’s best bats. In 567 PA since then (132 games) he slashed .299/.358/.478, with 16 home runs, 84 RBIs and a 125 wRC+. Granted, his defense is still below average and his 7.8% BB% and 16.6% K% aren’t great either, but for comparison's sake, those last numbers are better than Rosie’s (5.1% BB%, 17.6 K%).

 

Polanco is all but a lock to start at shortstop as of now. Ehire Adrianza and Ronald Torreyes are the only other two shortstops on the roster. Despite his somewhat weak defense, which did improve a bit with his UZR going from -4.7 to -3.9 over the last two years, Polanco still appears to be a good investment, especially when you notice he’s only 25. There’s a lot of room for improvement. Above all, there’s no one on this team who seems better qualified for a leadoff spot in the lineup. He’s a perfect fit.

 

But What Could Stand in Polanco's Way?

 

We all know Polanco is also a great asset, but with the shortstop position looking very healthy down on the farm (MLB ranked Royce Lewis as the second best shortstop prospect in the game), it’s hard to see Polanco staying in a Twins uniform for the remainder of his career... at least as a shortstop. Rocco Baldelli could well try to test Polanco as a second baseman, whenever Jonathan Schoop is hurt or resting, but that hasn’t been done by Paul Molitor since he came up to the majors.

 

Not only are there long term alternatives at shortstop, such as Lewis and Wander Javier, a couple of other factors might affect his presence this year. For starters, one of the organization’s top prospects, Nick Gordon, could get a shot at the big leagues during this year. After thriving through all the minor league levels, Gordon had an uncharacteristic bad stint right after being promoted to Triple-A, slashing .212/.262/.283 in 99 games with the Red Wings. But he is using that as motivation.

 

“I definitely feel like even with the struggles that I had, I learned a lot in Triple-A and it humbled me down to, ‘It’s about every game, it’s about every pitch, it’s about every play,'” Gordon said during an MLB Rookie Career Development Program, as posted by Twins beat writer By Do-Hyoung Park. “Ever since the season ended, there’s been that hunger and that drive. It feels like I have something to prove.”

 

Similar to Polanco, Gordon too can play both shortstop and second base, but chances are when he is promoted, he might take at-bats away from Polanco more than Schoop. But that also depends on how each player performs.

 

Another possibility, although there is only a remote chance of this happening, is that the Twins replace Polanco with an outside addition. ESPN has speculated that Minnesota could be one of the mystery teams in on Manny Machado.

 

Having Machado with the Twins would be incredible, but not a simple fit. Who’s the odd man out for him to be in the team? Play him at third base, move Sanó to first and let go of Cron or Austin? Play him at shortstop, bench Polanco and cut Adrianza or Torreyes? There’s a lot of thinking involved. But again, not many people believe those Machado rumors.

 

What do you think? Leave a comment and let us know.

 

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[SF Twins Fan]

Once Royce Lewis comes up I'd love to see him and Gordon battle for 2nd. With all of the middle infielders either on the Twins or in the high minors it'll be interesting to see who wins out.

[Dantes929]

Seems like we are always wondering why minor league success doesn't translate into big league success and Polanco feels like one of the rare ones that has done that.   I would be just fine with Polanco at 2nd or 3rd once Lewis comes up.   Definitely Polanco over Gordon or Schoop.

[Channing1964]

I think he's been a solid player ever since he has had the chance to play every day. Plus speed and a productive bat kind of offsets his defensive shortcomings. At this point we dont have another choice. Hitting him leadoff, we would be better off than a bunch of teams.

[nater79a]

 

Seems like we are always wondering why minor league success doesn't translate into big league success and Polanco feels like one of the rare ones that has done that.   I would be just fine with Polanco at 2nd or 3rd once Lewis comes up.   Definitely Polanco over Gordon or Schoop.

 

Agree with this take.  I think Polanco's   best   bet is as a 2B in the long run.

Could eventually be a multiple year all-star, in my opinion.  Love his bat in the lineup.

Edited January 24, 2019 by nater79a

[bighat]

Polanco, Rosario, and Berrios are the best Twins farm-system guys on the team. I love Polanco as a hitter, I'm willing to accept a few flaws in his defense. I'd like to see him at the top of the order every game this year between the 1-3 spots. With guys like Mauer and Dozier now gone, Polanco is going to be a major key to this offense. And just like he's always done, he'll probably hit .287 and score lots of runs. He may indeed be the best hitter on this team right now.

[mikelink45]

Polanco 3B is what my foggy crystal ball projects for the future.

[clutterheart]

Is anyone "sleeping on" Polanco? He is inked in as the starting SS.

[ChrisKnutson]

Why are so many people projecting Polanco as a 3B when his arm can barely handle SS?? Whether he remains with the Twins or not, Polanco’s future is at 2B.

[Tomj14]

I like Polanco, but lets not forget his is 25 played a grand total 288 games and  has had an 80 PED suspension. He isn't a guy IMO that blocks Lewis or signing a better SS.

 

[wabene]

I've always liked Polanco's bat. A spark plug and clutch hitter. His presence seems to energize the lineup and in big spots he doesn't have many holes for the pitcher to exploit. The most well rounded hitter of the twins in house core.

[ahart10]

Polanco is a nice well rounded player. Seems capable of holding down SS, especially with that slash line. I don’t see Gordon being any more than injury replacement this year, no reason to get his arbitration clock started.

So far as bringing in Machado. My preference would be to start him at 3rd and move Sano to a 3b/1b/DH/bench bat role, he’s earned it.

I believe Torreyes deal is a split major/minor league deal so he’s not a 25 man crunch issue and will likely get first dibs over Gordon should the need arise.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Jorge, if I remember right, was hitting at a Ruthian pace in late 2017 when the team was contending. He did it for a long enough period of time where you have to wonder if there's something in the bat that he can figure out and make him self a >.800 OPS type guy going forward... at 25, that's certainly possible.

 

He's also kind of under the radar. At short, with average defense and an above average bat, he'd be a pretty solid asset. 

 

Bottom line is that he's another guy that could take a huge step forward and have us contending. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

Is anyone "sleeping on" Polanco? He is inked in as the starting SS.

*raises hand*

 

"In 567 PA since then (132 games) he slashed .299/.358/.478, with 16 home runs, 84 RBIs and a 125 wRC+."  That surprised me. That's a better OPS (.836) than Didi Gregorius had last year (.829) and he had the benefit of playing half his games in a bandbox. Only five qualified shortstops had a higher OPS than that .836 mark of Polanco's last year.

 

Polanco has always been billed as a strong offensive middle infielder, but his OPS in the minors was "only" .761. Now you can make the case that Jorge is among the absolute best hitting shortstops in baseball. That'll be an even easier argument to make if Manny Machado ends up back at third base.

 

Can Polanco keep up that pace? Tough to say, but its a sample of 567 PAs that Thieres was referencing, so maybe.

[Thrylos]

Take away the first 14 games of the season, and Polanco had a slash line of .293/.344/.438 with.339 wOBA and 112 wRC+  That's higher wRC+ than Trea Turner and Jurickson Profar and higher wOBA than Chris Taylor and Turner.  Plus/minus and DRS are friendlier to Polanco than UZR, and even from the 3 UZR components, the only below average and the one that drives the whole thing down is errors.

 

Polanco is a streaky player and needs to play every day to get going.  There are some issues with the errors, but most of those I believe are from pressing (and he does that) and will go away as he matures as a veteran.

 

Sleeper?  Not as far as I am concerned.  He has star potential.  At some point as a prospect I had him higher ranked than Buxton

 

I think that there will be a place for Polanco, Lewis, and Javier in the same team.  From the 3 Javier is the best shortstop with the glove, and shortstop is a glove first position.  Let's not forget that the guy who most consider the best shortstop to play the game, ended up with a .666 OPS, 87 OPS+, and a 90 wRC+.

[Tom Froemming]

Here's another fun one:

 

Jorge Polanco's last 132 games

.299/.358/.478 (.836 OPS)

 

Manny Machado's last two seasons combined

.278/.339/.505 (.844 OPS)

 

Wow.

[scottz]

Gordon is not playing any meaningful games in Minnesota this year. If Schoop is hurt, or Polanco is hurt, or whatever scenario you can dream where the Twins need a second baseman, that guy is Torreyes or Adrianza. Gordon feels like he has something to prove and that's because he has something to prove. If everything goes right, he may show up in September for 9 games and 35 AB (with a .171 BA).

 

Polanco is a better player than Gordon. He is now, and he will be when Gordon is at his peak. Polanco should be extended, with the understanding that when Lewis arrives, he moves to 2B. A guy with an 80 game suspension under his belt will appreciate the security of an extension and it won't break the bank. He seems like a good guy who made a mistake and I don't think he'll make the same one again, so I don't think it's much of a risk from the Twins side. Sign him, tell him he's the lead off hitter, and appreciate his production.

 

Also, if we sign Machado, make sure you save this post. Because I'm a mystery candidate to be President in 2020, and you're going to want to say, "the President used to post on TwinsDaily."

[MN_ExPat]

Well said Thrylos.

[Surelock]

He came up ready to hit and hopefully he continues.

[jkcarew]

Polanco is extremely useful. Switch-hitter than makes contact and can put a little pressure on defenses on the bases. Depending upon how/when/if Lewis/Javier/Gordon arrive (and Schoop departs), Polanco can be a SS, 2B, or super-utility...but he can definitely be an every-day type on a very good team, IMO.

 

Also worth noting that Polanco, given a decent contract scenario (FA in 2023), represents an asset that might return tangible value in a trade.

[MMMordabito]

I doubt Polanco sees Gordon in the rearview mirror .... He'd have to get hurt or play pretty horribly for that to even enter the conversation right now .... I remember Thad Levine talking about how Gordon's bat was close, but he still had a ways to go with the glove last year. If the bat is "close" with a .544 OPS at AAA, I'd hate to see where the glove is.

 

If I remember correctly, there were some posters who watched Gordon live last year and echoed Levine's thoughts on his defense.

 

I'm looking forward to a full productive year from Polanco.  He can be an asset to this team.

[jmlease1]

Yeah, I'm not sleeping on Polanco. I think he's a significant part of this club and his absence was a significant part of the first half being such a disaster last year. Instead of having a power-hitting on-base machine 2B paired with a high average good power SS, we had a no-hit SS and a slumping 2B dealing with a balky knee, turning both spots into wastelands instead being assets.

 

A .280/.335/.420 slash line is eminently reasonable for a projection and substantially better than anything we could expect from Adrianza, and would make it easy to accept Polanco's occasional struggles on D. But as Tom and others have noted, he's shown the ability to exceed that level. He fits nicely in either the 1st or 2nd slot in the batting order, and I think we can pencil him in for 140+ games this year.

 

He's not a guy who need a bounceback year, he just needs to play. He screwed up, took a BIG ban that cost him a lot of money and hurt the franchise. But when he got on the field, he showed he could still hit. We had the 7th worst WAR at SS last season; a full year of Polanco easily slips us into the middle of the pack.

 

In 2018, we were 21st at 2B and 24th at SS by bWAR. 

In 2018, we were 3rd at 2B and 14th at SS by bWAR.

 

Polanco will help.

[ashbury]

Polanco has always been billed as a strong offensive middle infielder, but his OPS in the minors was "only" .761.

The book is still open on Polanco, but at the moment he is a good example of why I say you should take age into account when evaluating minor league stats. On average, players gain skills year by year, and they move up to harder leagues that tax those skills. Simply adding up stats doesn't tell you enough, and stats that seemingly stagnate from year to year may hide a lot of growth.

 

It's an inexact art and others surely do it better, but I rate each minor league level as .100 OPS harder than the one below it, and I estimate .100 OPS improvement each year for a player, until around age 24. Players can have a bad year and I throw it out if that's what it looks like - they can have an outlier "career year" and I do likewise - fluctuation occurs, and progress is not steady, and injuries occur, and good luck happens. Getting called up early can mess with the player's mind and his progression. But all in all, Polanco's age 19-21 seasons at A, high-A and AA, told me to keep an eye on him.

 

Max Kepler looked like he'd reach the majors, by the same general method. I had higher hopes for Eduardo Escobar when he was obtained, than some, same way.

 

But the same methodology had me keeping tabs on Max Murphy and Travis Harrison too. *shrug*

 

Anyway, don't look at AA stats for a 21-year old the same way you would for 23, is my suggestion.

[Number3]

"His presence seems to energize the lineup and in big spots he doesn't have many........"

Per the Whizzanater (won't ask for any background on that name lol)

 

This is a subjective trait that I have always thought was a must in any lineup and definitely picks up the rest of the lineup. Doesn't show up in a spreadsheet but does show up in the eye test in actually watching games instead of deciphering acronyms and abbreviations. Polanco does have it and there have been players on the Twins held in high esteem that did not have it. Glad the "Whizz" recognized it. BTW, Machado has the opposite effect. Polanco is a ball player (sorry for using that term). Machado is a sausage on a bun. Just ask the Os or the Dodgers.

[operation mindcrime]

Zzzzzzzz!

[Battle ur tail off]

I like Polanco. He takes good at bats most of the time and has some pop in his bat. He can run, high energy type guy also. 

 

He's my SS until someone takes the job from him, at which point I move him over to 2B or something. Perfect 1-2 hitter. Gets on base at a pretty good clip and with his speed...

[Mr. Brooks]

Why are so many people projecting Polanco as a 3B when his arm can barely handle SS?? Whether he remains with the Twins or not, Polanco’s future is at 2B.

SS requires a stronger arm than 3B, due to the longer throws from deep in the hole, moving away from 1B.

[Diesel]

As a fan, I would love to see the power surge of late 2017 (for everybody on the team, really). Polanco is a lot better than people think, and has huge potential.

Edited January 24, 2019 by Diesel

[rdehring]

 

As a fan, I would love to see the power surge of late 2017 (for everybody on the team, really). Polanco is a lot better than people think, and has huge potential.

I have been waiting for someone to do a poll as to how many home runs the Twins will hit this year.  Or maybe an over/under poll.

 

Personally, I put the number of home runs somewhere between 225 and 240. 

[Channing1964]

Besides the PED thang....I would argue to anyone watching that Jorge is better than Sano or Buxton. Rosario better watch out too. I cant wait till Nelson Cruz takes Polanco under his wing!.