Article: The Flip Side of Free Agency Frustration

[Nick Nelson]

 

Yeah, I get that the first month mattered, but overall, it was a decent signing and ended up getting us some depth pieces in a lost season. You also left Rodney off, who also brought home a prospect and also had struggles at points, but was generally solid. Same with Duke.

I left Rodney and Duke off because those are the kinds of low-wattage FA signings we've been seeing this year. So that kinda supports the current approach if anything. They were as good or better than plenty of the relievers who got larger guaranteed commitments elsewhere.

 

 

 

 

[big dog]

 

Who cares if you are the most expensive team to win 73 games?

As I said, efficiency is important.  This would be the antithesis of efficiency.  But I agree, who cares?

[Nick Nelson]

 

$3.5M is the going rate for an "opener"? Did Perez knowingly sign on to the Twins for such an ignominious role? His 1st time vs.2nd time stats don't even suggest he'd be successful as an opener.

 

And the Twins don't have cheaper options in filling that role?

 

Seems doubtful.

Why do were care about the money? There's no difference, practically, between spending 3.5M or 1.5M on him. The only thing I care about is the roster spot. But the fact that he got both an MLB deal and a higher-than-expected salary tells us there were other teams in on Perez, creating demand. The Twins didn't agree to those terms for the hell of it. 

 

So while everyone's entitled to dislike the Perez move, understand that the Twins aren't alone in seeing something more there. I agree that it's hard to tell what that is right now, but I can assure you that plenty of better pitchers than him on paper will end up with lesser deals. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Who cares if you are the most expensive team to win 73 games?

The over/under on the Twins in Vegas is 84.5 wins so I'm wondering what basis there is for this, other than outright pessimism. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you were going by the small sample size of lust his last year's statistics ast year then his 2.45 ERA as a reliever  would say that he could be a very effective pitcher.

Not only would you have to cite an extremely small sample (11 IP), you'd also have to trust ERA over peripherals in that small sample, or even just RA9 (ERA plus unearned runs). Perez still only had 5.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, and 4.09 RA9 in those relief innings.

[nicksaviking]

 

Damage caused by taking action is often easy to spot and then critique. Failing to shore things up and perform maintenance is less obviously costly, and is also generally underrated. This and the next several seasons for the Twins are an era of young cheap talent produced by the farm system, albeit talent of as yet uncertain quality, and the thing to do is apply unused financial resources during this period in case the young talent flops. What exactly are we saving the money for?

 

But if the young talent flops it's not like there's enough free agents to carry this team to the championship let alone the playoffs. So far the refrain has been about the money, but they spent money last year and their free agents this year haven't been exactly cheap. I don't think it's about saving money, I think it's about saving roster commitments beyond this year.

 

Which tells me that they are NOT counting on the current crop of young players at the MLB level to be reliable, and I don't blame them. Aside from two, they have all been very unreliable. I know no one likes it, but I think the front office is waiting until they see a cohesive core. They don't want to go all in with albatross free agents if the young guys who are supposed to be the base of the team are this flaky and unpredictable. I don't see a Hunter/Koskie/Jones/Guzman/Pierzynski/Santana kind of core here. And definitely no Puckett/Hrbek/Gaetti/Brunanski/Viola. Yet.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Why do were care about the money? There's no difference, practically, between spending 3.5M or 1.5M on him. The only thing I care about is the roster spot.

Well, $3.5 mil probably gives him a longer leash than $1.5 mil, so he could tie up that roster spot for longer, regardless of whether his performance warrants it.

 

Also, the context of the post to which you were responding was the "opener" idea, which is in part a strategy emphasizing optimization and efficiency. $3.5 mil for an opener -- an a suspect one, at that -- runs a bit counter to that.

 

$3.5 mil for a league-average starter (which is what Perez was in 2016-2017) would be good value -- although I'm not sure it would be a great asset. Ultimately doesn't move the contention needle much, and teams aren't exactly going to surrender much talent for it in trade either.

[Rosterman]

When you start plugging in longer term free agent or two, you have a club built around them, in which those free agents do fill obvious holes,

 

Right now the Twins have a roster with, perhaps, 20-21 holes. It seems no one is in the longterm plans on the current roster, otherwise the Twins would be going out of their way to extend the players. The couple obvious choices for extension are Berrios (they better do something) and Rosario (do you really want to build a franchise around him). 

 

So many questions that needed answers last season and the Twins didn't get them, but the promise is still there, so you take another and much longer look.

 

The Twins are playing for the future, the promise of the signings of the current administration becoming the team of the future. Look at the current 40-man roster. ho on the roster should be here in 2020. Who should be here in 2021. Who in 2022. You are better to ask who "might" and some of those "mights" are still in the minors.

 

Kepler and Buxton are still questionable. Sano is a big question for an esxensiuon. The Twins have no 2B/ss. They have patchwork at 1B. The atching is a mess. Not that any/all of these guys could play well in 2019. But the only proven given is an aging DH. The rotation has three guys entering free agency and one longer extension candidate. They have a bunch of starters that you hope can pitch you into the 6th inning. Hope is the big word. 

 

The bullpen has no closer and a couple of overworked setup guys, and the usual mix of arms with a couple in the wings. Anyone you want to extend? ANyone you can live without? Before you say May and Rogers, really think about that.

 

Yes, the Twins could sign a couple of HUGHE free agents. But now, they are rebuilding. The pieces they have MIGHT make them competitive if the players want big money in the future (something that should've also happened last year with names like Santana, Lynn, Dozier, Morrison all playing for BIG contracts in the years ahead.)

 

There is a plan. We have to be patient. The front office WANTS to make a team and organization in their own image. It takes time (sadly), but once the pieces start falling into place, we MIGHT have success and actually get young conrollable longterm free agents.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd quibble with Nick's comments on Lynn. I don't think it was a disaster move. He had a disasterous first month, which I think we all agree on, but he was much more of typical Lynn after that... so much so that he got traded for a prospect...

While Lynn wasn't a disaster in absolute terms, I think he could be considered that, relative to expectations. He averaged 2.8 bWAR per season in St. Louis, then produced 0.3 in 20 starts for the Twins.

 

And while Lynn did get traded, it was based on his St. Louis reputation -- in other words, he was traded despite his performance with the Twins, not because of it. And some might argue a corner guy like Austin, who is 27 years old and out of options this spring, is more of a suspect than a prospect too. (Yes, I do realize we also got a rookie ball pitcher in the deal. )

[Guest]

 

It's important to be efficient, but who cares if you are the team that spends the least to win 80 games?  I am really underwhelmed so far, and barring a significant trade I don't see how this team is going to take the next step, other than our traditional two-tiered strategy of Wait & Hope.

This!

 

And the answer to the question of who cares if you're the team that spends the least to win 80 games is: Jim Pohlad.

 

Nick, I understand all of your points and, if you want to give this FO the benefit of the doubt (as many people who were so head over heels in love with their metric-friendly approach were), that's fine.

 

But if, as you indicated, they may be gun-shy about going the FA route because none of the players they've signed have worked out well, one conclusion that a person could make is that these guys aren't all that good at evaluating major league talent, regardless of how advanced their methodologies might be.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But if the young talent flops it's not like there's enough free agents to carry this team to the championship let alone the playoffs. So far the refrain has been about the money, but they spent money last year and their free agents this year haven't been exactly cheap. I don't think it's about saving money, I think it's about saving roster commitments beyond this year.

So what's the plan, if the young talent flops? Just muddle along until 2021 or so, when Lewis and Kirilloff are hopefully up and producing? Note that we don't have to just sign 30+ year old, "win now" FAs. We could be using our resources to acquire or lock up younger assets for both the current "window" and the potential Lewis/Kirilloff window.

[MMMordabito]

 

I really think this fanbase needs to consider an ownership revolt. We all helped finance this beautiful ballpark I can't afford to take my family to and we STILL get the Bankster boogie... I will not support this team anymore (after 52 years) until ownership does.

 

It's January 23.  Ownership has already added $31 mill to 2019 in new players.  That's more than double what had been added by this time last season.  Lynn, Odorizzi and Morrison came much later.  $60+ mill just came off the books. Can they at least have the full off-season to show commitment?  The whole process is running slowly, just like last season (and it probably will until the CBA expires).

[Mike Sixel]

But if the young talent flops it's not like there's enough free agents to carry this team to the championship let alone the playoffs. So far the refrain has been about the money, but they spent money last year and their free agents this year haven't been exactly cheap. I don't think it's about saving money, I think it's about saving roster commitments beyond this year.

 

Which tells me that they are NOT counting on the current crop of young players at the MLB level to be reliable, and I don't blame them. Aside from two, they have all been very unreliable. I know no one likes it, but I think the front office is waiting until they see a cohesive core. They don't want to go all in with albatross free agents if the young guys who are supposed to be the base of the team are this flaky and unpredictable. I don't see a Hunter/Koskie/Jones/Guzman/Pierzynski/Santana kind of core here. And definitely no Puckett/Hrbek/Gaetti/Brunanski/Viola. Yet.

How many years in a row would they have to be good to believe in them? Because the core was good in 2017 and the FO made no long term commitments to surround them with talent, and their FA signings were lauded as efficient bargains. If they don't believe in this core, keeping Gibson is terrible strategy. So I'm having a hard time figuring out what they think. Other than not believing in even medium term contracts.

[Mike Sixel]

When you start plugging in longer term free agent or two, you have a club built around them, in which those free agents do fill obvious holes,

 

Right now the Twins have a roster with, perhaps, 20-21 holes. It seems no one is in the longterm plans on the current roster, otherwise the Twins would be going out of their way to extend the players. The couple obvious choices for extension are Berrios (they better do something) and Rosario (do you really want to build a franchise around him).

 

So many questions that needed answers last season and the Twins didn't get them, but the promise is still there, so you take another and much longer look.

 

The Twins are playing for the future, the promise of the signings of the current administration becoming the team of the future. Look at the current 40-man roster. ho on the roster should be here in 2020. Who should be here in 2021. Who in 2022. You are better to ask who "might" and some of those "mights" are still in the minors.

 

Kepler and Buxton are still questionable. Sano is a big question for an esxensiuon. The Twins have no 2B/ss. They have patchwork at 1B. The atching is a mess. Not that any/all of these guys could play well in 2019. But the only proven given is an aging DH. The rotation has three guys entering free agency and one longer extension candidate. They have a bunch of starters that you hope can pitch you into the 6th inning. Hope is the big word.

 

The bullpen has no closer and a couple of overworked setup guys, and the usual mix of arms with a couple in the wings. Anyone you want to extend? ANyone you can live without? Before you say May and Rogers, really think about that.

 

Yes, the Twins could sign a couple of HUGHE free agents. But now, they are rebuilding. The pieces they have MIGHT make them competitive if the players want big money in the future (something that should've also happened last year with names like Santana, Lynn, Dozier, Morrison all playing for BIG contracts in the years ahead.)

 

There is a plan. We have to be patient. The front office WANTS to make a team and organization in their own image. It takes time (sadly), but once the pieces start falling into place, we MIGHT have success and actually get young conrollable longterm free agents.

Then why is Gibson on the roster? Or even Rosario? Or Polanco? If they are rebuilding, why aren't they going all the way?

[nicksaviking]

 

So what's the plan, if the young talent flops? Just muddle along until 2021 or so, when Lewis and Kirilloff are hopefully up and producing? Note that we don't have to just sign 30+ year old, "win now" FAs. We could be using our resources to acquire or lock up younger assets for both the current "window" and the potential Lewis/Kirilloff window.

 

Yeah, that's typically what happens with rebuilds. Sano and Buxton didn't turn into Lindor and Rameriz or Betts and Bogaerts or Correa and Bregman. It sucks but that's the hand we were dealt. Fingers crossed they somehow become elite and the other young players become consistently above average.

 

I'm all for acquiring young talent any way we can get it if you're referring to trades. Aside from Machado and Harper I don't see a lot on the free agent market that really falls into that category. As far as the current roster, I don't see anyone other than Rosario and Berrios worth an extension, though I'd absolutely promote one for both of them at this time.

[Nick Nelson]

 

But if, as you indicated, they may be gun-shy about going the FA route because none of the players they've signed have worked out well, one conclusion that a person could make is that these guys aren't all that good at evaluating major league talent, regardless of how advanced their methodologies might be.

Except this trend also played out prominently elsewhere around the league. If we looked at the entire list of top 50 free agents or so, and assessed how things played out in 2018, I think we'd fine more misses than hits everywhere.

 

Look no further than Colorado's aggressive efforts to power up their bullpen through FA. 

[yarnivek1972]

It's January 23. Ownership has already added $31 mill to 2019 in new players. That's more than double what had been added by this time last season. Lynn, Odorizzi and Morrison came much later. $60+ mill just came off the books. Can they at least have the full off-season to show commitment? The whole process is running slowly, just like last season (and it probably will until the CBA expires).

Pitchers and catchers report in 23 days.

[nicksaviking]

 

How many years in a row would they have to be good to believe in them? Because the core was good in 2017 and the FO made no long term commitments to surround them with talent, and their FA signings were lauded as efficient bargains. If they don't believe in this core, keeping Gibson is terrible strategy. So I'm having a hard time figuring out what they think. Other than not believing in even medium term contracts.

 

How about 1 year? In 2017 Sano was good for a half year, then stunk, then broke his leg likely due to his lack of conditioning. Buxton was good for about two months, the opposite months that Sano was good no less. Polanco and Kepler were disappointingly mediocre at best. Berrios looked good until he tailed off at the end. Which left Eddie Rosario as the only guy who showed any semblance of consistency, which has happened two years in a row now. 

 

If more of these guys than not flake out again to start 2019, yeah, I'm sure Gibson is moved mid season. If these guys want the front office to make better moves, then they need to start showing they can be counted on. We didn't get the prospects we were promised for the last decade. I don't know where the failure is with that, but so far it has been a failure. 

 

Honestly though, I think an enthusiastic young manager can improve the team in intangible ways. So despite the pessimistic prior two paragraphs, I think Baldelli can get a majority of these guys to turn the corner. I have higher hopes that guys can reach their potential now than I did the last couple of years.

[MMMordabito]

 

Pitchers and catchers report in 23 days.

 

That's exciting, but it hardly spells the end of free agency or the early trade season ... at least not with the current MO of the league.

[Mike Sixel]

Except this trend also played out prominently elsewhere around the league. If we looked at the entire list of top 50 free agents or so, and assessed how things played out in 2018, I think we'd fine more misses than hits everywhere.

 

Look no further than Colorado's aggressive efforts to power up their bullpen through FA.

Of course, they could have used the next three guys in the minors. Would that have been better? Seems unlikely. No one ever looks at the alternative, using your next three minor league players. The twins worst RPs all put up negative WAR. How would the next three they brought up do? Edited January 23, 2019 by Mike Sixel

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, that's typically what happens with rebuilds.

Still, even if we're muddling along, we don't have to muddle along at well below average payroll. The 2019-2020 Twins would project better with Charlie Morton, for example, or David Robertson, just in case we run into some luck with the current player wave, and it wouldn't hamper anything we want to achieve in 2021 or beyond. (Might even help in 2021 and beyond, if you had to flip Morton/Robertson.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Except this trend also played out prominently elsewhere around the league. If we looked at the entire list of top 50 free agents or so, and assessed how things played out in 2018, I think we'd fine more misses than hits everywhere.

 

Look no further than Colorado's aggressive efforts to power up their bullpen through FA. 

I'd say that list would feature a few front offices who aren't good at judging major league talent. And I'd say the Rockies might be one of them, judging by one of the worst 2017 deals (Ian Desmond). Arguably the worst deal of 2018 isn't surprising right now either (Padres, Eric Hosmer).

 

There are good players on those FA lists, and while no one will bat 1.000 in free agency, it might be nice to have a front office who could win more than they lose in FA while dipping more than just their toes into the water. Do we have that?

[ashbury]

But if the young talent flops it's not like there's enough free agents to carry this team to the championship let alone the playoffs.

I'll condense your post to this sentence for the purpose of my reply.

 

I'm reminded of a letter supposedly sent to Dear Abby long ago. It went along the lines of "Dear Abby, my husband has left me. I'm 46 years old, with no job experience, and I'm thinking of going back to school and getting the college degree that I never tried for when I got married at 18. Everyone tells me I can do the work necessary to succeed in college. But, Abby, I'd be 50 when I graduated! Should I do this?" And Abby (is said to have) replied, "And how old will you be in 4 years if you DON'T go to college?"

 

I'd love to have a good playoff run, but that's not the sole criterion. I want good baseball. I'm not of the "all in for the WS, or else tank" philosophy (and that might be where the disconnect is, relative to some posters).

 

Any pool of baseball assets is inherently a depreciating one, so you must replenish via all avenues, continually. Acquire talent that other teams covet, instead of concentrating on filler. Sometimes this requires money. If it doesn't work out due to circumstances such as the young cheap guys not panning out as hoped, or even if the acquired FA talents fizzle, then deal with it then. (If every asset fails, go back and figure out what's wrong with the system.) "But we might not have a good season if we acquire McCutchen [or whoever] and then Buxton/Sano fail?" "And how good a season will we have if Buxton/Sano fail, without McCutchen?"

[blindeke]

What is the revenue money for if it is not for signing people to play for the team?

[nicksaviking]

 

Still, even if we're muddling along, we don't have to muddle along at well below average payroll. The 2019-2020 Twins would project better with Charlie Morton, for example, or David Robertson, just in case we run into some luck with the current player wave, and it wouldn't hamper anything we want to achieve in 2021 or beyond. (Might even help in 2021 and beyond, if you had to flip Morton/Robertson.)

 

I would have liked Robertson and a couple of the other relievers that went elsewhere. Less so with Morton, mostly due to his age and my skepticism that whatever changed with him in Houston is going to transfer to a new organization. I really didn't like the free agent starters this year. Eovaldi was the only guy interesting to me but with his injury history and inconsistency I don't blame anyone for not beating the 4 years $17M per he got.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'll condense your post to this sentence for the purpose of my reply.

 

I'm reminded of a letter supposedly sent to Dear Abby long ago. It went along the lines of "Dear Abby, my husband has left me. I'm 46 years old, with no job experience, and I'm thinking of going back to school and getting the college degree that I never tried for when I got married at 18. Everyone tells me I can do the work necessary to succeed in college. But, Abby, I'd be 50 when I graduated! Should I do this?" And Abby (is said to have) replied, "And how old will you be in 4 years if you DON'T go to college?"

 

I'd love to have a good playoff run, but that's not the sole criterion. I want good baseball. I'm not of the "all in for the WS, or else tank" philosophy (and that might be where the disconnect is, relative to some posters).

 

Any pool of baseball assets is inherently a depreciating one, so you must replenish via all avenues, continually. Acquire talent that other teams covet, instead of concentrating on filler. Sometimes this requires money. If it doesn't work out due to circumstances such as the young cheap guys not panning out as hoped, or even if the acquired FA talents fizzle, then deal with it then. (If every asset fails, go back and figure out what's wrong with the system.) "But we might not have a good season if we acquire McCutchen [or whoever] and then Buxton/Sano fail?" "And how good a season will we have if Buxton/Sano fail, without McCutchen?"

 

Yeah, that's where I'm different. I want a championship and that's it. I don't care about a Wild Card berth or another 90-win division championship team completely over-matched in the playoffs. I recall the 2001-10 teams much less fondly now than I did when they were on-going. Those teams didn't do what was needed to win it all and I'm resentful. I don't want to miss out again. If making roster moves now gets the team closer to 80 wins this year but perhaps hinders them from getting 100 wins in a couple of years, I'm sacrificing this year. I want to save as much ammo as I have for the real battle. I don't care about 80 wins and watching a competent baseball game, of course it's OK that others do.

 

And I don't have a timeline, it could be 2021 or it could be this June. I just want the guys we have now to prove that they're worthy of going for it all because I still think they're more important than the free agents brought in.

[MABB1959]

 

I assume the poster meant decline the option, but then re-sign Ervin at a lower salary. (Not that I endorse such an idea!)

I said the whole team was a big gamble except for Berrios, Rosario and maybe Gibson, not counting E Santana because he is not on the team.   If the was he would be another gamble.  If he comes back from this injury I think he will do well.  He is super competitive and so focused while he pitches.  I also admired his mentoring of Berrios and Romero.

[old nurse]

 

The over/under on the Twins in Vegas is 84.5 wins so I'm wondering what basis there is for this, other than outright pessimism. 

The 2018 San Fransisco Giant win total with a 203 million dollar payroll.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The over/under on the Twins in Vegas is 84.5 wins so I'm wondering what basis there is for this, other than outright pessimism. 

I don't think that poster is predicting 73 wins. I believe they are just throwing that out there as some kind of pessimistic/negative counter-point to something.

 

edit: which their reply to you seems to confirm.

Edited January 23, 2019 by spycake

[mazeville]

 

They have the budget flexibility this year and didn't use it.  What evidence is there to suggest that they will use it next year or beyond?  If free agents are a crap shoot this year what makes future free agents any less of a crap shoot?  

 

In 2011 the Twins had the 9th highest payroll in baseball. That was the last year the team KNEW it was going to be competitive going into the year. 

 

The team instead lost 99 games that year. It was a total mess. 

 

Problem is that the team has been uncompetitive since then and spending on free agency during most of those years hasn't been the wisest course of action. Last year, they spent $130 million -- 18th in the league, but in line with their standing in terms of total revenue. 

 

There are some serious questions about this team going into this year. Sure, I'd love it for the Twins to sign Manny Machado. But I'm OK if they keep their flexibility going forward and use it to their advantage in future years.