Article: The Flip Side of Free Agency Frustration

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yeah, that's where I'm different. I want a championship and that's it. I don't care about a Wild Card berth or another 90-win division championship team completely over-matched in the playoffs. I recall the 2001-10 teams much less fondly now than I did when they were on-going. Those teams didn't do what was needed to win it all and I'm resentful. I don't want to miss out again. If making roster moves now gets the team closer to 80 wins this year but perhaps hinders them from getting 100 wins in a couple of years, I'm sacrificing this year. I want to save as much ammo as I have for the real battle. I don't care about 80 wins and watching a competent baseball game, of course it's OK that others do.

I'm not sure there's necessarily a stark difference in those decisions, though. Given their ages, signing Machado or Harper now might be our best bet at 90 wins this year AND our best bet at achieving 100 wins in 2021. It's not like every offseason has a top 26 year old free agent with a bunch of big market teams sitting out, and we'd still have all our prospect depth from which to trade. Or targeting a controllable 26 year old in trade -- not every offseason will have a Christian Yelich on the block, like the Brewers scored last winter. Plus 2 year deals for guys like Robertson, whom you already said you were interested in, which also wouldn't cause you to lose any "ammo" for bolstering the 2021+ squads.

 

If you want to argue against a 5 year deal for Keuchel right now, I am fine with that. (Although I could give some leeway if the front office believed in a guy like Corbin.) But that's generally not what I have in mind when I say I'd like the Twins to be more aggressive about winning right now.

[Ryan Atkins]

"the front office is making deals on its own terms"

 

I like the approach. I have never been a fan of long contracts, especially for pitchers. Although, having watched Yu Darvish for years down here in Texas, I admit I wanted the Twins to sign him.

 

You also missed Michael Pineda in your rundown of this regime's free agent signings. Another deal on their terms. They gave Pineda security in his injury year in exchange for a 2nd year at reasonable cost. Its a low-risk gamble that could really pay dividends this year. And I feel like Pineda will be motivated to reward the Twins for their investment.

[yarnivek1972]

That's exciting, but it hardly spells the end of free agency or the early trade season ... at least not with the current MO of the league.

 

I think it is pretty clear based on last year the importance of having players in camp when it opens.

[Jim Hahn]

I really don't care about budgets and whether or not the FO is spending as much as they could or should. I don't mind if the FO is pursuing a strategy of combing thru the discard pile, or dumpster diving or whatever you choose to call it. There is no doubt that good players can and are often acquired this way. Sometimes long term producers are found this way.

 

The thing is if you are going to pursue a strategy of finding bargains, looking for marginal upgrades, and looking for bounce back candidates, you need to be good at it. Your processes,evaluations and judgements need to be good. You can't be losing many Derreck Rodriguez' s or going through the whole process of identifying, signing and working with the perfect bounce back candidate in Anibal Sanchez and then getting no benefit from that good work.

 

Be good at this strategy also means more than getting good value for what you spend. The pieces have to fit together. Is having 2/3 of your lineup comprised of what appear to Be low acerage,poor contact, high strike out sluggers a good thing? Does adding Perez even at a bargain price, when you already have a very similar pitcher in Meija? Both are backend starter types who haven't worked out of the bullpen. Neither can be sent to the minors. Do both fit on the same roster?

 

It is too early to say that this FO can't execute this strategy. Nick Nelson is right about that. So are the people wondering whether this strategy will help the Twins contend even if the core group actually become a core group. The FO chose this strategy rather than make bigger perhaps more easily justified splashes. Now they need to make their chosen strategy work.

[DocBauer]

Nick, a well thought out article and I generally agree with everything you outlined. I do believe in the theory of more accurately figuring out this team, as well as seeing what the new staff can do with it. With that understood, I don't even have an issue with a certain degree of payroll rollback for 2019, especially if it allows for future moves.

 

Where I DO have an issue is missed opportunity to augment this roster, just as it is, to help this team win. And I don't imply a single $20M signing to do so. With such an obvious need for a reliable and proven pen arm, with so many available and the costs being so reasonable, they have missed opportunity. With a number of solid bat, versatile players available for infield depth and protection for Sano, they have done nothing.

 

Perez may seem like a fall guy. But it goes beyond that. With young pitching that NEEDS opportunity and experience, and with other holes left un-filled, this particular move, along with a couple "non-moves" has me very frustrated.

 

Maybe lightening strikes and I will be forced to gladly eat my words. But the $3.5M for Perez could have been used much more effectively on a couple final pieces while still keeping the 2019 payroll down.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

When you start plugging in longer term free agent or two, you have a club built around them, in which those free agents do fill obvious holes,

 

Right now the Twins have a roster with, perhaps, 20-21 holes. It seems no one is in the longterm plans on the current roster, otherwise the Twins would be going out of their way to extend the players. The couple obvious choices for extension are Berrios (they better do something) and Rosario (do you really want to build a franchise around him). 

 

So many questions that needed answers last season and the Twins didn't get them, but the promise is still there, so you take another and much longer look.

 

The Twins are playing for the future, the promise of the signings of the current administration becoming the team of the future. Look at the current 40-man roster. ho on the roster should be here in 2020. Who should be here in 2021. Who in 2022. You are better to ask who "might" and some of those "mights" are still in the minors.

 

Kepler and Buxton are still questionable. Sano is a big question for an esxensiuon. The Twins have no 2B/ss. They have patchwork at 1B. The atching is a mess. Not that any/all of these guys could play well in 2019. But the only proven given is an aging DH. The rotation has three guys entering free agency and one longer extension candidate. They have a bunch of starters that you hope can pitch you into the 6th inning. Hope is the big word. 

 

The bullpen has no closer and a couple of overworked setup guys, and the usual mix of arms with a couple in the wings. Anyone you want to extend? ANyone you can live without? Before you say May and Rogers, really think about that.

 

Yes, the Twins could sign a couple of HUGHE free agents. But now, they are rebuilding. The pieces they have MIGHT make them competitive if the players want big money in the future (something that should've also happened last year with names like Santana, Lynn, Dozier, Morrison all playing for BIG contracts in the years ahead.)

 

There is a plan. We have to be patient. The front office WANTS to make a team and organization in their own image. It takes time (sadly), but once the pieces start falling into place, we MIGHT have success and actually get young conrollable longterm free agents.

 

Don't agree. So what you are saying is that this team needs to wait for the perfect storm in order to add anyone with real talent? 

 

What is wrong with picking up a piece here, piece there. Even if you think your window isn't until 2020 and beyond? Is it against the rules to sign or trade for these 27-30 year old guys for 2-4 years so that they can be here to help now and into the future? 

 

If you really feel nothing will happen until 2020 or beyond, then roll with the young guys!! See what you have in some of those pitchers! Don't sign a never was, never will be guy that's 28 and never been any good, just let Mejia take the reigns he will cost nothing and give you the same or more results anyway!

 

I'm always of the belief that there is a chance to add premium talent, if it is in your budget and the player is the right age, you should do whatever you can to get it. Quit hoping and praying so much. Just cut down the numbers of players you bring in, make sure they are guys you can count on producing, and fill in the gaps with your minor league system.

[nicksaviking]

 

I'm not sure there's necessarily a stark difference in those decisions, though. Given their ages, signing Machado or Harper now might be our best bet at 90 wins this year AND our best bet at achieving 100 wins in 2021. It's not like every offseason has a top 26 year old free agent with a bunch of big market teams sitting out, and we'd still have all our prospect depth from which to trade. Or targeting a controllable 26 year old in trade -- not every offseason will have a Christian Yelich on the block, like the Brewers scored last winter. Plus 2 year deals for guys like Robertson, whom you already said you were interested in, which also wouldn't cause you to lose any "ammo" for bolstering the 2021+ squads.

 

If you want to argue against a 5 year deal for Keuchel right now, I am fine with that. (Although I could give some leeway if the front office believed in a guy like Corbin.) But that's generally not what I have in mind when I say I'd like the Twins to be more aggressive about winning right now.

 

I wouldn't argue against Machado or Harper, just the ability to get them here. Sign me up for one or both if possible. 

 

Robertson, Familia and Soria were the relievers at the top of my list this year. Since Familia went back to the only team he's ever known it's hard to blame anyone for that. Wish the other two would have worked out.

 

I don't like Keuchel and his sinker, he's had success with it so he he's unlikely to change. Corbin's 40% slider usage is the only thing making me say no to him. It's my favorite pitch, but that kind of frequency makes me think his elbow is going to give out again real soon.

 

 

[mikelink45]

I do not care what Buxton and Sano will be!  I want a team that wins.  I want a roster of big league players and if the three year superstud prospects come through, great, but if we are just waiting than maybe the fans should wait and buy tickets when the prospects come through.  

Year after year it is if Buxton and Sano....  Put a team together and when Buston and Sano arrive they will ride with talent to a title. 

 

Has this front office hypnotized us?  Are we all waiting for the illusionist to mystify us?  This is professional ball.  That means that the teams are supposed to be playing for the championship.  If Sano and Buxton had come through last year we still would not have been in the World Series.  Quit being Minnesota Nice.  When we stink, we stink!

[KirbyDome89]

Instead of tethering themselves to expensive, inescapable commitments for players on the higher tiers (which, as we've learned time and time again, carry no assurances) the front office is making deals on its own terms.

 

Apart from the Britton deal and potentially Kimbrel's would any of the relief contracts handed out this offseason damage future spending in any significant way? Honestly, there were a ton of short term deals this club could've struck with far superior talent. Also, what assurances do these bargain bin acquisitions provide? 

 

These aren't your garden-variety bargain bin signings. There's a deeper methodology in place, and I'm sure I'm only scratching its surface. The silver lining to this resource preservation is that it will give them extreme flexibility leading up to the trade deadline.

 

Flexibility was the spin last offseason, I vote for something new this year...

The goalposts keep moving in regards to when we can expect this organization to act as though they're invested in fielding a truly competitive team, and also when we should hold the FO accountable for the product on the field.

[old nurse]

 

Except this trend also played out prominently elsewhere around the league. If we looked at the entire list of top 50 free agents or so, and assessed how things played out in 2018, I think we'd fine more misses than hits everywhere.

 

Look no further than Colorado's aggressive efforts to power up their bullpen through FA. 

In descending order of size of contract the top 20 for 2017 are: Hosmer, 1.4 bwar, Darvish- out, J D Martinez 6.4, Cain 6.9 Arrietta 3.1 Santana 1.7, Cobb 1.1, Davis 1.1 43 saves, 6 blown ones, Jay Bruce negative bwar, Chatwood 0.0 Cozart 0.1, Mike Minor 3.8, McGee -0.8,  Shaw -1.1, Morrow 1.4 , in 35 appearances, Hunter 1.5 in 65 relief appearances Frazier 1.5, Nicasio -1.1, Reed 0.1, Neshek 0.8 in 30 appearances.  Lance Lynn was the only player outside of that group to land a contract of more than 10 m/y Last year there were way more misses than hits.

In case anyone disagrees, another useless stat from last year. There were 721191 pitches thrown last year. The swinging strike rate was 10.7%.  there were 41018 hits. There was way more misses than hits last year

[bighat]

 

I really think this fanbase needs to consider an ownership revolt. We all helped finance this beautiful ballpark I can't afford to take my family to and we STILL get the Bankster boogie... I will not support this team anymore (after 52 years) until ownership does.

 

I do agree that we are all pretty disappointed about how the last 7-8 years have gone with this team. We want this team to start shelling out for the Harper's and Machado's. But I think with Spring Training around the corner, it's time to be a bit more hopeful. There's always a chance and it's not like this team has given up. C'mon man, get in the spirit.