Article: Twins Sign Left-Handed Pitcher Martin Perez

[Mr. Brooks]

His spot in the rotation is not guaranteed. Neither is his roster spot since it is still only 4M if we decide to cut him.

 

Are you saying there is no scenario where he improves the team? His career ERA of 4.63 is pretty similar to Kyle Gibson's 4.47. Perez is also 4 years younger than Gibson. His career ERA of 4.63 is better than the 2018 ERA from these players; Lance Lynn, Fernando Romero, Gabriel Moya, Alan Busenitz, Tyler Duffey, Ervin Santana, Stephen Gonzalvez, Matt Belisle, Zach Littel, Aaron Slegers, Phil Hughes, and John Curtiss. No guarantee he pitches to a 4 something ERA (or better) but its not that unreasonable that he would.

 

I don't think its fair to say he blocks the development of a youngster when he himself is only 27 with room to develop. He has a mid 90's fastball and one of the better curveball spin rates in MLB. Not many of our youngsters have this skill set and experience. There will be an opening in the rotation at some point this season for other youngsters, this is only a 1 year deal, this is only 4M. I don't see any way this hampers our team.

I'm ok with the signing.

But he's guaranteed a spot out of ST, IMO. Who knows how long into the season they'd have to get to eat 4 million, but there is no way they are eating it before the season even starts.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

His spot in the rotation is not guaranteed.  Neither is his roster spot since it is still only 4M if we decide to cut him. 

 

Are you saying there is no scenario where he improves the team?  His career ERA of 4.63 is pretty similar to Kyle Gibson's 4.47.  Perez is also 4 years younger than Gibson. His career ERA of 4.63 is better than the 2018 ERA from these players; Lance Lynn, Fernando Romero, Gabriel Moya, Alan Busenitz, Tyler Duffey, Ervin Santana, Stephen Gonzalvez, Matt Belisle, Zach Littel, Aaron Slegers, Phil Hughes, and John Curtiss.  No guarantee he pitches to a 4 something ERA (or better) but its not that unreasonable that he would.

 

I don't think its fair to say he blocks the development of a youngster when he himself is only 27 with room to develop.  He has a mid 90's fastball and one of the better curveball spin rates in MLB.  Not many of our youngsters have this skill set and experience.  There will be an opening in the rotation at some point this season for other youngsters, this is only a 1 year deal, this is only 4M.  I don't see any way this hampers our team.

From a 2018 standpoint Perez was one of the absolute worst pitchers available. The same can be said from a career perspective. It hampers our team when with a bit more cash, or in some cases less even, we could have gotten someone better.

 

As for our pitching prospects, we might as well cut them loose since they don't seem to warrant a chance that they are better than one of the very worst in baseball.

[SomeGuy]

 

There's always one person every year on this team where we have this type of argument. "He's only making $3-5 million. They can cut bait quickly." In reality, that person always sticks around the club until July at least. They don't cut bait quickly on anyone making more than a couple of million.

I would want to try him in the bullpen before cutting him in this hypothetical situation.  We could also ask him to accept a minor league assignment if he is pitching too poorly. 

 

But these "3-5M guys" also have a chance to be successful too. Everyone is pretty eager to say this guy is dragging us down.  

[SomeGuy]

 

I'm ok with the signing.
But he's guaranteed a spot out of ST, IMO. Who knows how long into the season they'd have to get to eat 4 million, but there is no way they are eating it before the season even starts.

I wouldn't expect it to be in spring training that he is cut but I could see him losing the rotation spot in spring training.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think they see a LH Kyle Gibson. Took a look at his pitch percentages in comparison to pre-2018 Gibson. Like pre-2018 Gibson, his main pitch was 92 mph sinker. They both throw their changeup around 20% of the time. Additionally, they both have a breaking ball (curve for Perez, Slider for Gibson) that could be considered a swing and miss pitch if they used it in more appropriate situations. Just guessing......

 

Yeah, I don't want Perez and a sinker heavy approach anywhere near this team. I am slightly intrigued due to the Kyle Gibson similarities. Also, I was looking through recent Texas starters for comps for guys who have left the team. There aren't many because the Rangers are awful at developing pitchers, but Derek Holland had the same silly sinker reliance. Now two years removed from Texas, just like Gibson, he upped his four-seamer and slider usage in the right counts and he turned into a real pitcher who can actually get outs all on his own. 

 

But if that's not the plan for Perez, dump him early.

[SomeGuy]

 

From a 2018 standpoint Perez was one of the absolute worst pitchers available. The same can be said from a career perspective. It hampers our team when with a bit more cash, or in some cases less even, we could have gotten someone better.

 

As for our pitching prospects, we might as well cut them loose since they don't seem to warrant a chance that they are better than one of the very worst in baseball.

From a career standpoint that cannot be said of Perez.   With this 2018 logic the same could be said about Gonsalvez, Busenitz, and Littell being among the worst in baseball or Berrios in 2016.

[jud6312]

 

From a career standpoint that cannot be said of Perez.   With this 2018 logic the same could be said about Gonsalvez, Busenitz, and Littell being among the worst in baseball or Berrios in 2016.

 

The rather glaring error in this argument is that with 2016 Berrios, 2018 Littell, and 2018 Gonsalves, you're talking about rookies, with ridiculously small sample sizes on the latter two.

 

Martin Perez started 2018 at least parts of 6 seasons in the majors, and just under 700 MLB innings pitched.

 

It's like comparing kindergartners to sixth graders.

[SomeGuy]

 

The rather glaring error in this argument is that with 2016 Berrios, 2018 Littell, and 2018 Gonsalves, you're talking about rookies, with ridiculously small sample sizes on the latter two.

 

Martin Perez started 2018 at least parts of 6 seasons in the majors, and just under 700 MLB innings pitched.

 

It's like comparing kindergartners to sixth graders.

Gonzalves is 3 years younger while Littell is 4.  Kindergartners to 3rd grade maybe. 

 

Starting MLB at 21 shows how good Perez was supposed to be.  Reports were that Houston was bidding on him until the very end.  That is interesting to me, those guys are pitching wizards.

 

Speaking of rookies, Martin Perez finished 6th in rookie of the year voting with a 3.62 ERA and 124.1 innings.

Edited January 31, 2019 by SomeGuy

[jud6312]

 

Gonzalves is 3 years younger while Littell is 4.  Kindergartners to 3rd grade maybe. 

 

Starting MLB at 21 shows how good Perez was supposed to be.  Reports were that Houston was bidding on him until the very end.  That is interesting to me, those guys are pitching wizards.

 

Speaking of rookies, Martin Perez finished 6th in rookie of the year voting with a 3.62 ERA and 124.1 innings.

 

You hit the nail on the head ... "supposed to be." 

 

Martin Perez was "supposed to be" really good ... 7 years ago.

 

Michael Restovich was "supposed to be" a top-notch power hitter.

 

Matt Garza was "supposed to be" an ace.

 

Adam Johnson and J.D. Durbin, were "supposed to be" an really good.

 

There's a lot of people that were "supposed to be" something that never panned out. It very much looks as though Martin Perez is one of those. Even if he improves on last year, is his upside anything more than what he's already shown in previous years?

 

On a team/organization full of question marks, why waste time, roster space, and money answering a question that appears to already have been answered?

[SomeGuy]

 

You hit the nail on the head ... "supposed to be." 

 

Martin Perez was "supposed to be" really good ... 7 years ago.

 

Michael Restovich was "supposed to be" a top-notch power hitter.

 

Matt Garza was "supposed to be" an ace.

 

Adam Johnson and J.D. Durbin, were "supposed to be" an really good.

 

There's a lot of people that were "supposed to be" something that never panned out. It very much looks as though Martin Perez is one of those. Even if he improves on last year, is his upside anything more than what he's already shown in previous years?

 

On a team/organization full of question marks, why waste time, roster space, and money answering a question that appears to already have been answered?

At 27 I don't think you can say the questions have been answered.  There is a good pitcher in him somewhere, it is a 4M gamble that we can figure out a good way to utilize him.  A very small gamble for sure.  His career numbers are no worse than our other options, what is there to lose?

 

Just leaving the poor pitchers ballpark in Texas should help, plus he is going from the worst team in a very good division to one of the best teams in a very poor division.  I'm sure there are some advanced analytics underlying the Twins interest as well as the other 4-5 teams that were bidding on him.

Edited January 31, 2019 by SomeGuy

[Mike Sixel]

At 27 I don't think you can say the questions have been answered. There is a good pitcher in him somewhere, it is a 4M gamble that we can figure out a good way to utilize him. A very small gamble for sure. His career numbers are no worse than our other options, what is there to lose?

 

Just leaving the poor pitchers ballpark in Texas should help, plus he is going from the worst team in a very good division to one of the best teams in a very poor division. I'm sure there are some advanced analytics underlying the Twins interest as well as the other 4-5 teams that were bidding on him.

It isn't the money, it's the roster spot, and not gathering information on the four or five guys now behind him. And if four teams were bidding on him, his agent did a bad job getting money.

[ahart10]

It doesn’t make any sense to me. Why pay extra money for a roll of the dice? He doesn’t have options so that advantage is lost. Twins have plenty of dice to roll that can be sent down and picked up for another roll again later, and they’re making minors money most of the time.

[SomeGuy]

 

It isn't the money, it's the roster spot, and not gathering information on the four or five guys now behind him. And if four teams were bidding on him, his agent did a bad job getting money.

For me it is not about the money or the roster spot.  De Jong is not a huge loss IF he is claimed.  Mejia is at risk but can be stashed in the bullpen.

 

The agent didn't do too bad considering how many people expected this to be a minor league signing.  Seems like he did pretty good to have 4-5 teams bidding on him if Perez is as bad as this thread seems to think he is.  Pretty fair deal all around plus he can get double in 2020 on the option if he does have a nice year.

[SomeGuy]

All projections used by Fangraphs.

 

Steamer 2019 projections

Perez 4.69 ERA

Odorizzi  4.93 ERA

 

The Bat 2019 projections

Perez 4.01 ERA

Odorizzi 4.06 ERA

 

ATC 2019 projection

Perez 4.69 ERA

Odorizzi 4.70 ERA

 

DepthCharts 2019 projections

Perez 4.69 ERA

Odorizzi 4.93 ERA

 

Edited January 31, 2019 by SomeGuy

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

 

I don't think its fair to say he blocks the development of a youngster when he himself is only 27 with room to develop.  He has a mid 90's fastball and one of the better curveball spin rates in MLB.  Not many of our youngsters have this skill set and experience.  There will be an opening in the rotation at some point this season for other youngsters, this is only a 1 year deal, this is only 4M.  I don't see any way this hampers our team.

opponents OPS against that curveball is .918 for his career. https://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=6902&position=P&pitch=CU

 

Historically he's relied heavily on his sinker which has been a better pitch for him, but the Twins have an infield built for fly ball pitchers. His BABIP should skyrocket on that sinker. Look at Gibson, his success came when he got away from his two seamer, and went to the four. 

 

Perez's Career OPS on his four seam is .893. 

 

Sinker bad for 2019 Twins. Perez bad for 2019 Twins.  

 

[MABB1959]

NYY, Boston are the Whole Foods/Lunds,  Chicago/Detroit are Cub/Target and we are the Aldi/Walmart's of the MLB.    KC is down there with us but they have recent WS that brings them above us.  But we are still paying the Whole Foods ticket prices.

Edited January 31, 2019 by MABB1959

[Old Twins Cap]

Per Steve Adams on MLB Trade Rumors chat published on Tuesday:

 

The Perez signing is obviously small scale, but it is one of the most baffling moves of the offseason. I don't see how he's an upgrade over any of the 6-7 in house options they already had for the fifth spot. If you're going to sign a starter, at least sign someone who is either a clear upgrade or, with the proper bounceback, could be deemed as such (e.g. Pomeranz)

 

Twins are either geniuses or the dumbest guys in the room.

 

Can't wait to find that out.

[ashbury]

I try not to give in to paranoia too much of the time. But the Spotrac page that nicksaviking referenced elsewhere shows a current $94M payroll without Perez. This figure is for only 17 major league contracts currently in place. Given 8 more roster spots, that's another $4M and change, for the rookies and others with insufficient service time to demand more money. So the Perez signing looks awfully conveniently like the one that puts them safely over the $100M mark, which the FO probably views as a public relations benchmark that they dare not be below going into a season.

 

Occasionally you hear one of the braintrust railing against calls to "just give away their money" or "spend just for the sake of spending", and yet this signing has the earmarks of exactly that.

 

Like others here, I hope they have spotted something in spin-rate or whatever, that other teams missed with Perez, and he has a productive season. I'd rather that my suspicions not be true.

[jud6312]

 

All projections used by Fangraphs.

 

Steamer 2019 projections

Perez 4.69 ERA

Odorizzi  4.93 ERA

 

The Bat 2019 projections

Perez 4.01 ERA

Odorizzi 4.06 ERA

 

ATC 2019 projection

Perez 4.69 ERA

Odorizzi 4.70 ERA

 

DepthCharts 2019 projections

Perez 4.69 ERA

Odorizzi 4.93 ERA

 

That's all well and good, but you're comparing him to a pitcher he's not competing with. For better or worse, Odorizzi is probably a lock for the rotation.

 

Perez's veteran status, paycheck, "lefty-ness," and (assumed) status as one of this FO's guys, will give him every chance to fail or succeed. I've seen no evidence from them that Perez or any of their FAs have a short leash - whether it be losing their spot in the rotation, higher leverage roles in the bullpen, or from the roster entirely.

 

That means he's blocking guys like Mejia, Romero (if he's not moved to the pen), Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe, De Jong, etc. from getting innings in the majors.

 

They might all very well need more time to develop, or might be destined for the bullpen based on their own merits anyway. But by making this move, you're not finding out if they're ready or not, if they're starters or bullpen arms. 

 

If you're rolling the dice on Perez reclaiming his past "success" and achieving middling numbers, why not roll the dice and find out what you do or do not have waiting in the wings.

 

Depth is only depth if it's really there. On paper, this team has plenty of arms, but because of moves like this, nobody knows if it's real or not.

[nicksaviking]

 

Per Steve Adams on MLB Trade Rumors chat published on Tuesday:

 

The Perez signing is obviously small scale, but it is one of the most baffling moves of the offseason. I don't see how he's an upgrade over any of the 6-7 in house options they already had for the fifth spot. If you're going to sign a starter, at least sign someone who is either a clear upgrade or, with the proper bounceback, could be deemed as such (e.g. Pomeranz)

 

Twins are either geniuses or the dumbest guys in the room.

 

Can't wait to find that out.

 

I was watching that chat and agreed until he threw Pomeranz out there. Pomeranz isn't any good either, at that point it sounded like he just had preferences between two terrible options and was disappointed that the Twins chose death by fire instead of death by drowning. Surely he could have found a better example than Pomeranz to support his view.

[jud6312]

 

I was watching that chat and agreed until he threw Pomeranz out there. Pomeranz isn't any good either, at that point it sounded like he just had preferences between two terrible options and was disappointed that the Twins chose death by fire instead of death by drowning. Surely he could have found a better example than Pomeranz to support his view.

Maybe he threw it out there because he's also lefty and his one good season is more recent than any other available lefty with one good season? All I got on that one.

 

Given 2017, and a better K/9 rate, I'd have probably chosen death by Drew instead ... he's the drowning option, right?

[Danchat]

NYY, Boston are the Whole Foods/Lunds, Chicago/Detroit are Cub/Target and we are the Aldi/Walmart's of the MLB. KC is down there with us but they have recent WS that brings them above us. But we are still paying the Whole Foods ticket prices.

At least Walmart is successful, right now this seems the Twins are more like Kmart.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Martin Perez started 2018 at least parts of 6 seasons in the majors, and just under 700 MLB innings pitched.

And Perez has actually been decent for most of that time. Career 97 ERA+, even after his awful 2018. 198 and 185 innings pitched in 2016 and 2017, respectively (with 104 and 100 ERA+ marks too).

 

I don't necessarily like the signing, but mainly because I wanted an addition at the top of the rotation or pen. But Perez has had a good career, and stands a good chance of slotting in the middle of our rotation or pen, or at least as a quality 5th guy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I was watching that chat and agreed until he threw Pomeranz out there. Pomeranz isn't any good either, at that point it sounded like he just had preferences between two terrible options and was disappointed that the Twins chose death by fire instead of death by drowning. Surely he could have found a better example than Pomeranz to support his view.

Yeah, I'd like to aim higher than either Perez or Pomeranz. But there are definitely reasons to prefer Pomeranz -- better peripherals, more extensive experience out of the pen. Also cheaper / easier to cut.

[Linus]

I hate the signing especially as a starter. With a live arm he might make sense in the pen but he should never be starter

[Richie the Rally Goat]

And if none of those pitchers prove ready? Is Mejia healthy and staying that way? What about Pineda? Depth is a good thing especially one that you can move to the bullpen or cut all together if it doesnt work out.

thanks for the reminder on my stance. He certainly looks improved since moving to the rotation, compared to his bullpen stints. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Looks like the missing piece. 

 

Looks like you may have been correct... knowingly or not... 

[TheLeviathan]

I hope he keeps this up.  I'll gladly eat that delicious crow.

 

And this might be the first sign that this FO can take analytics and deliver high end production by mining opportunities from struggling players.  That's a very good sign.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Ok, let me chime in on this, because a)everyone is, and b)I know all will be eager for my take.

 

Here are reasons I can see taking a flier on this guy:

 

1. He was top-ranked as a prospect, hitting #18 on mlb.com, #17 on Baseball America, and #7 on Keith Law’s list. Granted, this was back in 2010, a long time ago. But there is a reason players get those sort of high rankings.

 

2. He’s 27. It’s unusual to get a former top prospect right at the start of their prime years. (This certainly seems an MO for the FO; get “the shine is off” 27-years olds - Schoop, Austin, Perez.)

 

3. He’s played in Texas, the most extreme pitcher’s park outside of Colorado (and maybe even including Colorado).

 

4. He had TJ surgery in 2014. It frequently takes a while for players to come back fully from that. (See Gibson, Kyle, and look upthread for nick’s lone wolf get-rid-of-the-sinker arguments). He also has had some odd injuries; the bull thing, and screwing up his thumb in a hotel door.

 

5. His MLB BABIP is .315, and it was .330 and .345 the last two years in Texas. Get a year of <300 and that alone might result in better numbers. Couldn’t find his minor league BABIP.

 

6. He’s from Venezuela and left handed, good change-up. (The Johan comps leap off the page. s/)

 

7. He came cheap, after Texas declined a $7.5mm option, they got him for $3.5 and a year option. He might be terrible, but if he puts it together, it could be a decent deal. Let’s remember, he’s being signed as a possible #5, nothing more, with not much risk. The Mets wanted him but weren’t going to give him a chance at the rotation, so he picked the Twins.

 

8. Levine knows him from Texas (as does Nelson Cruz?).

 

So, that’s what I’ve got. I also get that he hasn’t been good, he didn’t live up to his billing, his minors numbers also weren’t great, and he might be taking a spot from someone else. All of that is why he’s available at 27 for cheap.

 

Realistically, though, he’s probably getting 10-15 starts. If he gets 30 starts, it’s because he did well. I think Mejia, Romero, and Gonsalves all will get opportunities in the rotation this year; you need 8-10 starters every year.

 

I get people may have wanted someone else (Keuchel, Buchholz, Kimbrel, Allen), but I don’t think this is the worst move in the world.

Re-reading this thread, a lot of people hated this signing. Nicksaviking didn’t, and above was my take. The only thing I missed back on January 20 was that Wes Johnson might help him add some mph to his fastball....

[Vanimal46]

Congrats on the staff for transforming Perez into a new pitcher... Kudos to Perez for mastering a new pitch and trusting to throw it almost 40% of the time. He's certainly extended his career... If he keeps this up the option year in 2020 is a no brainier! Berrios needs a sidekick or 2 in the rotation. It could be him!

Edited May 7, 2019 by Vanimal46