Article: Making a Machado Bid

[nicksaviking]

Are all these Yankees free agent signings just totally ignorant of the climate in the northeast?  That's one hell of an effort if they've pulled off that feat of magic......

 

I live in Phoenix.  They literally whine about the "No one wants to come here" thing too.  It's what's made me realize how ridiculous that excuse is.

  

Boston, New York, Chicago, Detroit.... They seem to attract people.

Yeah, metropolitan large market coastal cities. They look down on us too. Neither of you two live here, but did you? What’s the reaction of at least 50% of the people you tell that you’re from Minnesota? I’m not trying to be a jerk but surely everyone has experienced the “You’re from where?!” reaction when traveling. Why would pro athletes be any different? It’s an obstacle that can be overcome, but it’s not imaginary.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah, metropolitan large market coastal cities. They look down on us too. Neither of you two live here, but did you? What’s the reaction of at least 50% of the people you tell that you’re from Minnesota? I’m not trying to be a jerk but surely everyone has experienced the “You’re from where?!” reaction when traveling. Why would pro athletes be any different? It’s an obstacle that can be overcome, but it’s not imaginary.

Yes, overcome with money. At the end of the day, money solves this..

 

The "ugh, you used to live there!!!" happens to everyone.  I hear it from Minnesotans about the heat in Phoenix.  All rational people should say that about Florida.  Minnesotans would say that about Iowa or Wisconsin.  People from Illinois sneer when they say "Indiana"  What you experienced is just a thing humans do, it's like talking about the weather.

 

And when you talk about your Florida experience, I can't help but think of the first time I heard that same, bogus rationale in Phoenix.  Phoenix is a big city with (supposedly) great weather and do you know what fans and talk radio people say? "Nobody wants to come here..."  I laughed out loud the first time I heard it and thought of Twinsdaily.  

 

"They won't come here because of the weather" is more like the rationalization you make when you get rejected by a love interest.  It's more about patting yourself on the back than anything grounded in reality.

Edited January 18, 2019 by TheLeviathan

[Badsmerf]

Minneapolis is a great city. I don't fault players for being snow birds, but there are plenty of reasons to enjoy the winter months. Ice fishing, ice skating, snowmobiling, skiing, etc. The weather argument is a cop out. People that don't like the weather in Minneapolis, won't like the weather in New York, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Baltimore, Washington DC either.

 

It is always about money. Always. The Twins have never been shot down by a big ticket free agent after giving the best offer.

[Doomtints]

Chicago has a milder climate than MN, it's both warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer. Most of the winter is in the 30s and most of the summer is in the 60s-70s. Every winter has some colder snaps (in the teens, generally) but they only last a couple of weeks at a time, and of course there are some weeks in the 80s (which seem brutal when you're not used to it).

 

Those cities on the east coast are very mild too.

Edited January 18, 2019 by Doomtints

[Mike Sixel]

Chicago has a milder climate than MN, it's both warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer. Most of the winter is in the 30s and most of the summer is in the 60s-70s. Every winter has some colder snaps (in the teens, generally) but they only last a couple of weeks at a time, and of course there are some weeks in the 80s (which seem brutal when you're not used to it).

 

Those cities on the east coast are very mild too.

People do realize that athletes don't necessary live where they play, right?

 

Dave ST Peter literally said this is bunk, it's about years and salary.

[Andy Allgood]

 

There will never be a better opportunity to add a player of this caliber. Do it.

Nolan Arenado is a free agent next year.

[Andy Allgood]

 

Doomtints ..."Hm. When I look at his numbers from 2018, I don't see any down months at all, in fact he probably outperformed any Twin in any given month. If he had a slump, it was no more than around ten days in length and he more than made up for it."

 

Harper hit 18 home runs in April and May and finished with 37 while struggling to hit .250. What am I missing? On top of that his mere presence dominates a dugout and the persona of a whole team. He would destroy the "new" Minnesota Twins until they can establish their own identity and be able to absorb a Bryce Harper or anyone like him. Unless you want the Minnesota Twins to be the Harper Twins, stay away.

What personality does this team have other than "loser" lately anyway? I'd take a dominant personality on this team for once even if it does mean they're a bit of a d-bag.

[Tomj14]

 

Nolan Arenado is a free agent next year.

He will be 29, but the time 2020 season starts, and there is no guarantee he will be a free agent.

[Tomj14]

 

 

Chicago has a milder climate than MN, it's both warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer. Most of the winter is in the 30s and most of the summer is in the 60s-70s. Every winter has some colder snaps (in the teens, generally) but they only last a couple of weeks at a time, and of course there are some weeks in the 80s (which seem brutal when you're not used to it).

 

Those cities on the east coast are very mild too.

?

Google average Temps:

Chicago

June - 77° / 63°

July - 82° / 70°

August - 81° / 70°

Minneapolis

June - 79° / 59°

July - 84° / 64°

August - 81° / 62°

 

I will give you the winters high is a bit warmer and the low is quite a bit warmer.

But how many baseball players are in either spot in the winter.

 

Edited January 18, 2019 by Tomj14

[jkcarew]

I agree that it's almost completely about the money. BUT a small (but not insignificant) part of the money consideration is the market and opportunities beyond salary. And then the part not related to money relates to perceptions on chances to compete for championships. This means that the Twins (currently) would need to offer above-market (materially more than the competition) to get the likes of Machado. It would be nice, if nothing else but from a symbolic standpoint, that we would hear that the Twins tried to do that.

 

Having said that...I'm not as enamored with Machado as most here.

[USAFChief]

 

Nolan Arenado is a free agent next year.

I doubt the same opportunity will exist. 

[nicksaviking]

Yes, overcome with money. At the end of the day, money solves this..

I think you are projecting too much financially assumed goals on these people. I admit that I might not be a majority, but I wouldn’t commit 10years of my life to living summers in central Florida for a 10-20% pay increase. Nor would I Cleveland, Detroit or Baltimore. Yes, I’ve been to all these places. Yes, my perspective may be skewed by sample size and preconceived ideas. 2-4 years for a life changing deal? Yeah, I might be swayed, but a whole decade of my prime years? Forget about it. Maybe money drives most of these these guys above all else, but not all of them, and I’d guess not most of them.

 

I hope that everyone can distinguish that I am differentialating these long term life changing deals from the more modest shorter term deals presented to lower class free agents.

[rv78]

Won't play in Minnesota! It's not about the weather. It's about the COMMITTMENT to winning. The Twins don't do it. Period. Look at the signings they have made this year. Anyone really look like they are going to be around for a while and make a difference? No! Any impact players that were on the roster in 2018 that they have tied up for quite a few years? No! This organization hasn't committed to any player outside of hometown boy Joe Mauer since Puckett and Hrbek wore the uniform. What big moves did they make to bring us another Championship when they had the M&M boys and were riding the top of the ALCentral at that time? Pavano? Crede? Capps? Livan Hernandez? Craig Monroe? Rondell White? Sidney Ponson? Jeff Cirillo? Bret Boone? Terry Mulholland? Shannon Stewart? Pat Borders? Kenny Rogers? Rick Reed? Jesse Orosco? Were any of them a difference maker? No! Crap, bottom of the barrel, hope and a prayer, washed up players that didn't matter.

 

It has only happened 1 time in the history of the organization that they got someone who made a difference. Jack Morris in 1991, and by 1993 they were back to losing for 8 consecutive seasons. No Committment!

[rv78]

If they want to make a bid for another Championship, go after Machado, Harper, Keuchel, Allen, Ottavino and show other FA in the coming years that your Team is committed to winning and there is a chance to win a Championship or two or three or more if you come to Minnesota. It will open the doors to more top FA than you can imagine.

It'll never happen!

[GP830]

If they want to make a bid for another Championship, go after Machado, Harper, Keuchel, Allen, Ottavino and show other FA in the coming years that your Team is committed to winning and there is a chance to win a Championship or two or three or more if you come to Minnesota. It will open the doors to more top FA than you can imagine.

It'll never happen!

Ottavino and Allen are already off the board.

[specialiststeve]

Would love us to be the "mystery team"! Would put us in the relevant category for years if he was obtained - Buxton and Sano turn the corner..... and most of all our pitching gets better.... not likely but.....  

[Strato Guy]

 

Would love us to be the "mystery team"! Would put us in the relevant category for years if he was obtained - Buxton and Sano turn the corner..... and most of all our pitching gets better.... not likely but.....  

I have been wondering the same thing about Minny being the mystery team. It would not totally surprize me. The front office operates pretty quietly. They have the money to be a player of this magnitude and also have the need for another infielder. 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

Nolan Arenado is a free agent next year.

Have you seen his home/away splits?

[Doomtints]

 

?

Google average Temps:

Chicago

June - 77° / 63°

July - 82° / 70°

August - 81° / 70°

Minneapolis

June - 79° / 59°

July - 84° / 64°

August - 81° / 62°

 

I will give you the winters high is a bit warmer and the low is quite a bit warmer.

But how many baseball players are in either spot in the winter.

 

Remember for a minute that Chicago is massive. When you enter the Chicago metropolitan area you are still 2-3 hours from downtown. When you enter the CITY of Chicago, you're still an hour from downtown.

 

Where the baseball stadiums are and where the affluent people live is a much milder climate than it is an hour to the south and an hour to the west.

Edited January 19, 2019 by Doomtints

[Mr. Brooks]

Remember for a minute that Chicago is massive. When you enter the Chicago metropolitan area you are still 2-3 hours from downtown. When you enter the CITY of Chicago, you're still an hour from downtown.

 

Where the baseball stadiums are and where the affluent people live is a much milder climate than it is an hour to the south and an hour to the west.

Winnetka average temps:

June: 78/57

July: 83/63

August: 82/62

 

Also, climate and weather don't get caught in traffic. So your 2 hour and 1 hour examples are meaningless in this context.

The Chicago metro area is about 60 miles by 45 miles. That is big, but not big enough to have a significant disparity of climate/weather.

Edited January 19, 2019 by Mr. Brooks

[BK432]

 

Remember for a minute that Chicago is massive. When you enter the Chicago metropolitan area you are still 2-3 hours from downtown. When you enter the CITY of Chicago, you're still an hour from downtown.

 

Where the baseball stadiums are and where the affluent people live is a much milder climate than it is an hour to the south and an hour to the west.

 

Dude....Guaranteed Rate Field is 4 miles south of downtown and Wrigley Field is 7 miles north of downtown. I'm skeptical that the climate differences are as big as you seem to be suggesting.

[Squirrel]

Remember for a minute that Chicago is massive. When you enter the Chicago metropolitan area you are still 2-3 hours from downtown. When you enter the CITY of Chicago, you're still an hour from downtown.

 

Where the baseball stadiums are and where the affluent people live is a much milder climate than it is an hour to the south and an hour to the west.

Uh, no. The temperature is more ... temperate ,,, in comparison to the suburbs, because of the lake, but the climate isn’t milder. Stand on the corner of Michigan and Roosevelt in the dead of winter and maybe you’ll understand the difference.

 

I would much rather be sitting in Target Field in April for a game than either of Wrigley or Guaranteed Rate. But I’d rather be sitting in either Chicago Stadiums in late October than Target Field. I say that based on experience of the weather and climate of both areas.

[BK432]

Let's get back to the point of this post. A Machado offer. If you pay the man, he'll sign with the Twins. If it's not his dream destination, for whatever reason, you might have to pay a small premium. So let's accept that. We have no idea whether or not that's the case here, but let's assume it is.

 

We also know they are well short of their 2018 payroll number for 2019 right now. We know they have virtually no money on the books for 2020 and beyond. And we know we could still use an upgrade in the middle infield.

 

We know he has a 7 year deal on the table with AAV of $25M. So how about a 4 year deal that beats the record AAV (currently 34M)?

 

4 years, $140M. $35M AAV. I'd put it on the table and dare Machado to walk away. 

Edited January 19, 2019 by BK432

[Doomtints]

 

Dude....Guaranteed Rate Field is 4 miles south of downtown and Wrigley Field is 7 miles north of downtown. I'm skeptical that the climate differences are as big as you seem to be suggesting.

 

Actually I didn't say the climate different at the stadiums at all (though I could have, as it is).

 

Both stadiums are close to the lake and both are cooler than further inland, though Progressive gets much more humid. It is brutally windy in Wrigley. Until the dead of summer it is freezing in that stadium.

 

As for the comments that 1-2 hours won't make a difference:

 

1) The difference between the northern and southern boundary of Chicago is equivalent to driving halfway to Duluth from the middle of the Twin Cities.

2) The difference between one edge of the Chicago metro area would that full drive to Duluth.  Is the climate in Duluth different from the Twin Cities?

3) I studied meteorology in college, and areas around bodies of water and mountains can have drastic climate differences over very small distances. You may notice a very big body of water next to Chicago. The areas around the lake have a much milder climate than the Twin Cities both in the winter and in the summer.

 

The microclimate around downtown is windier (and it feels much colder) in the winter, yes. It's also much cooler in the summer (unless you're on the rivers, where it's brutally humid). If you are going to quote "official" weather figures from the Chicago area, note they are probably coming from O'Hare airport which is in the suburbs west of Chicago.... not near the lake.

 

We just got about 5 inches of snowfall last night and going outside is the first it has felt like the Twin Cities winter weather that I remember in about three years.

Edited January 19, 2019 by Doomtints

[USAFChief]

Actually I didn't say the climate different at the stadiums at all (though I could have, as it is).

 

Both stadiums are close to the lake and both are cooler than further inland, though Progressive gets much more humid. It is brutally windy in Wrigley. Until the dead of summer it is freezing in that stadium.

 

As for the comments that 1-2 hours won't make a difference:

 

1) The difference between the northern and southern boundary of Chicago is equivalent to driving halfway to Duluth from the middle of the Twin Cities.

2) The difference between one edge of the Chicago metro area would that full drive to Duluth. Is the climate in Duluth different from the Twin Cities?

3) I studied meteorology in college, and areas around bodies of water and mountains can have drastic climate differences over very small distances. You may notice a very big body of water next to Chicago. The areas around the lake have a much milder climate than the Twin Cities both in the winter and in the summer.

 

The microclimate around downtown is windier (and it feels much colder) in the winter, yes. It's also much cooler in the summer (unless you're on the rivers, where it's brutally humid). If you are going to quote "official" weather figures from the Chicago area, note they are probably coming from O'Hare airport which is in the suburbs west of Chicago.... not near the lake.

 

We just got about 5 inches of snowfall last night and going outside is the first it has felt like the Twin Cities winter weather that I remember in about three years.

First rule of holes: when you find yourself in one, stop digging.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Uh, no. The temperature is more ... temperate ,,, in comparison to the suburbs, because of the lake, but the climate isn’t milder. Stand on the corner of Michigan and Roosevelt in the dead of winter and maybe you’ll understand the difference.

I would much rather be sitting in Target Field in April for a game than either of Wrigley or Guaranteed Rate. But I’d rather be sitting in either Chicago Stadiums in late October than Target Field. I say that based on experience of the weather and climate of both areas.

 

Except for the part of having to put up with Cubs/Sox fans if they are playing in October.

 

[Squirrel]

 

Except for the part of having to put up with Cubs/Sox fans if they are playing in October.

Well, if the Sox sign Machado over the Twins, I'll be cheering them on, so not so bad.

[snepp]

 

But I’d rather be sitting in either Chicago Stadiums in late October than Target Field.

 

We can cross that bridge when (if) it ever actually happens. 

[highlander]

I'm not a Manny fan

[Tomj14]

I heard a guy on the radio ask the question if not now then when to signing a big time free agent.

His answer was Never and I agree if the Twins aren't willing to pay Manny or Harper (not that either would take it), which free agent would they ever give the money to?