Article: Sizing Up Cody Allen

[Nick Nelson]

After reaching agreement with all of their arbitration eligible players last week, the Twins have solidified their projected 2019 payroll at around $96 million. That's about $30M below where they were last year (which was just below the MLB average), so needless to say they've got spending flexibility.

 

The back end of the bullpen is the clearest need, and in that market, one name stands out as a fairly obvious fit.From 2014 through 2017, Cody Allen was consistently one of the better relievers in baseball. Serving as closer in Cleveland, he averaged 30 saves per season while posting a 2.62 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, and 12.1 K/9 rate.

 

In 2018, at age 29, he took a sizable step back, posting a 4.70 ERA with career highs in WHIP (1.36), BB/9 rate (4.4) and blown saves (5). His strikeouts were down along with his velocity. It was a troubling season for Allen and it couldn't have come at a worse time for him.

 

But these circumstances make him an ideal fit for the Twins, who evidently aren't interested in any long-term commitments this winter. With another typical campaign in 2018, Allen might've been in line for a three- or four-year contract. But his major lapse creates too much risk for any team to make that leap now.

 

Allen's most realistic hope now is for a high-dollar short-term deal, which is exactly what Minnesota's positioned to hand out. That's just one reason this match makes sense. There's also the team's need for a dominant late-inning reliever, and Allen's familiarity with Twins CBO Derek Falvey, who was Cleveland's co-director of baseball operations when the Indians drafted him in 2011.

 

La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reported a month ago that the Twins were interested in Allen, but obviously nothing has come to fruition as of yet. It's been a slow-moving relief market. Perhaps the right-hander is waiting on Craig Kimbrel and Adam Ottavino – the two names clearly ahead of him in the pecking order – to sign and set precedent.

 

I'm wondering if something like a one-year, $14 million offer might get it done with Allen, who would reel in more than half of his career earnings up to this point (he's totaled about $24 mil) with an opportunity to rebuild value in a prominent role and hit the market again next offseason.

 

The upside here for the Twins is plain to see. But there is downside. It'd mean having $20M-plus tied up in two relievers who were both not very good in 2018. The money isn't really an issue, but the hefty guaranteed contracts mean Allen and Addison Reed will get every chance to earn them, possibly at the expense of worthy younger arms.

 

Adding Allen to a bullpen that includes Reed, Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, and Blake Parker would leave few vacancies. Someone like Trevor Hildenberger, Gabriel Moya or Andrew Vasquez could more easily become blocked even if he proves deserving. The opportunity to try converting a younger starter, like Fernando Romero or Adalberto Mejia, becomes more limited.

 

These aren't necessarily huge stumbling blocks, but they're worth keeping in mind for a team focused on rebuilding via the internal pipeline. Players need opportunities to develop.

 

It's basically a moot point if Allen returns to his pre-2018 form or anything close. He'd significantly upgrade and legitimize Minnesota's bullpen unit. In light of that upside, and given the fact that – even in his down year – Allen's K and whiff rates would've ranked among the best in the Twins bullpen, I think the reward far outweighs the risk here. So I'm only left asking one question:

 

What are we waiting for?

 

Click here to view the article

[Post-Concussive Blues]

I think 1 year/$14 million is way more than he will get, coming off a bad year with loss of velocity. Maybe 1 year/$9 million, or two years/$16 million are more realistic.

 

That said, I’m not advocating the Pohlads save money. Please, go ahead and bring in good players to make our team better!

[Nick Nelson]

You might be right. What I'm saying is, why not pay whatever it takes to get him on a one-year deal? If someone else is offering 2/16 he'd obviously take the 1/14 offer, right? There's basically no cap to what the Twins could offer him on a one-year deal, and it still aligns with their established no-commitments strategy.

 

If Allen is fiercely determined to get a multi-year deal, even at a far lesser annual salary, then maybe the Twins should stay away. That sends all the wrong signals coming off a season like he just had.

[beckmt]

Allen could  well be toast from Cleveland's overuse.  He might rebound, but do not think Twins should take the chance, except on a very team friendly one year deal.

[sweetmusicviola16]

14mil for one year? If they are going to overpay for a reliever then they should have overpaid for some of the guys that did not suffer from reduced velocity last season. I get that we need pen help. But do we need to overpay for guys on the downside of their careers?

 

Frankly we have the money for Kimbrel if we want to throw $$$$ around.

[Nick Nelson]

 

14mil for one year? If they are going to overpay for a reliever then they should have overpaid for some of the guys that did not suffer from reduced velocity last season. I get that we need pen help. But do we need to overpay for guys on the downside of their careers?

 

Frankly we have the money for Kimbrel if we want to throw $$$$ around.

He lost less than 1 MPH on both his FB and CB. With that drop, he still allowed a .230 batting average and struck out 80 hitters in 67 innings. 

 

Sure, I'd love to get Kimbrel. I'd love to get Ottavino. But in practical terms: people have to want to sign here, and the Twins are clearly shying away from multi-year commitments. Allen just makes a ton of sense from that perspective, and after Kimbrel/Ottavino he's the best bet in free agency from my view.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

He lost less than 1 MPH on both his FB and CB. With that drop, he still allowed a .230 batting average and struck out 80 hitters in 67 innings. 

 

Sure, I'd love to get Kimbrel. I'd love to get Ottavino. But in practical terms: people have to want to sign here, and the Twins are clearly shying away from multi-year commitments. Allen just makes a ton of sense from that perspective, and after Kimbrel/Ottavino he's the best bet in free agency from my view.

Better than anything either of us has suggested I'd rather the Twins sign Brad Brach to a 2/13 option type deal and trade away some of our milb excess talent to Baltimore for Mychal Givens. It makes no sense to be sitting on the assets and seeing them go to waste.

 

Basically you'd be looking at 9mil for both guys for 2019. Plus we'd have some badly needed depth and hopefully upgrades.

Edited January 16, 2019 by sweetmusicviola16

[ChrisKnutson]

I think 3yr/$24M would be fair for both sides. Twins need more stability in the later innings and Allen needs security in case 2018 is the new norm (which is unlikely).

[TheLeviathan]

The team needs to sign a guy like this.  3/24 is not going to kill them and the upside is there.

[SF Twins Fan]

Get it done!!! If they're in the playoff hunt in July they should have a better understanding where the team and the minor leaguers are at and use them to improve the MLB team.

[Otwins]

I have been hoping for more upgrades in the bullpen and I think Allen is worth taking a chance on. His worst season last year was 5 blown saves.  Didn't we blow about 25 as a team last year. I am not worried about blocking marginal major league relievers. If they could not contribute last year when there was plenty of opportunity and need I would make them earn their innings. I hope they sign a closer and an additional starter and reliever on minor league contracts.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't understand why the staff writers here continue to ignore the fact that $25 million of last year's payroll was due to BamTec money.

There likely isn't nearly as much payroll flexibility remaining as many people here seem to think.

[DocBauer]

Unless there truly is something amiss physically, this is a no-brainer that most of has have been clamoring to happen for weeks now. All but the truly elite relievers, and often them as well, have a down season from time to time. It's the nature of the game and being human. Unless told otherwise, he is healthy and only 30 in a roster category in which many guys perform strongly until mid to even late 30's.

 

I would take the 1 yr deal but don't like it. (Especially for $14M). This is the perfect time in invest in a 2-3yr deal, or some sort of 2+ option.

 

There is need, opportunity, fit and familiarity on both sides. If this doesn't get done, then something really strange is going on.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I don't understand why the staff writers here continue to ignore the fact that $25 million of last year's payroll was due to BamTec money.
There likely isn't nearly as much payroll flexibility remaining as many people here seem to think.

Average payroll in MLB over the past 5 years (via BP):

 

2014: $115M

2015: $125M

2016: $130M

2017: $136M

2018: $135M

 

The Twins are currently at $98 million. They have money to spend. Lots. 

[Channing1964]

Cody Allen should be a Twin...Fernando Rodney shouldnt have left..shame on you Falvine

[Channing1964]

Look. after the

justifications last August of "we freed up payroll money to pay for the improvement of the team

[Channing1964]

really derek?

[old nurse]

 

I have been hoping for more upgrades in the bullpen and I think Allen is worth taking a chance on. His worst season last year was 5 blown saves.  Didn't we blow about 25 as a team last year. I am not worried about blocking marginal major league relievers. If they could not contribute last year when there was plenty of opportunity and need I would make them earn their innings. I hope they sign a closer and an additional starter and reliever on minor league contracts.

Rodney blew six saves and was shipped out to blow more. Ryan Pressly blew 4 and was shipped out and blew 2 more. Duke blew 3 and was shipped out. Busenitz blew 2 and was demoted.  The people responsible for half the blown saves are gone.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I wonder if a deal like Nelson Cruz got (14 million in 2019 and a second year team option for 12 million with a low ($300,000) team buyout) would entice Allen to sign?

[lukeduke1980]

He gave up 11 home runs last year.  I can't take any more walk off losses than endured last year.

[Monkeypaws]

 

I wonder if a deal like Nelson Cruz got (14 million in 2019 and a second year team option for 12 million with a low ($300,000) team buyout) would entice Allen to sign?

 

A deal like that and this off-season would be a solid success.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Relievers are so fickle and yet a shutdown one is so valuable...

 

Part of that, I think is the SSS. An extra HR or two is a pretty big deal for a guy that only pitches 60-80 innings. 

 

As for Allen, yeah, I think I'd go for him, or even one of the other two that are supposedly waiting to set the market. Another option for Rocco is, in my opinion, one of the easiest pieces of low hanging fruit that could make a pretty big difference overall. 

[mlhouse]

Here is the other issue:  What is the point of a one year deal?

 

If he sucks, then it was money wasted.

 

If he doesn't suck, he earned his way out of Minnesota purgatory and will get a better deal somewhere else.   Maybe we can dump him for peanuts at the trade deadline but that is a waste of $14 million.....

 

Instead, the better route to go is trying to develop our own internal closer.   But, the sad fact is, this organization has done a piss poor bad job of developing closers particularly so since we used high level draft picks on hard throwing college relievers with absolutely nothing to show for.

 

The next best route is to make a trade, maybe even a prospect for prospect trade with another organization, and give that guy the opportunity to hold the job.  Notice I did not say "earn".   

Finding another arm off the scrap heap on a one year deal does nothing to move the needle forward.

 

 

[puckstopper1]

Nick you said

 

"After reaching agreement with all of their arbitration eligible players last week, the Twins have solidified their projected 2019 payroll at around $96 million. That's about $30M below where they were last year (which was just below the MLB average), so needless to say they've got spending flexibility."

 

I may hbe off base here, but do we know for sure that the Twins are able to / planning on spending more than the $96M they are at?

 

When I look around Target Field, I'm seeing more and more empty seats.  I also believe that their season ticket holder and corporate sponsor base is diminishing.  If I'm ownership and are seeing that, I might not be so quick to add too much to the payroll.

 

I certainly hope that is not the case...

[beckmt]

Cleveland bullpen was one of the worst in the league last year (along with the Twins).  If you want to monitor Allen's market and move when you feel the value is good I can live with it.  

This team lead the majors in blown saves last year and is young.  The last thing I want to see happen is to start the year, blow 3 - 4 saves in April and have this team collapse into a here we go again mentality when you go to the pen.  This is too important a position to just hope things work out if you intend to compete this year.  If you do not it is a different story, but at that point you encourage other organizations (White Sox) to overspend this year, hit the jackpot and be looking at the same area other teams in this area are at.  Good enough to be decent, not good enough to win or win divisions. 

[beckmt]

 

Nick you said

 

"After reaching agreement with all of their arbitration eligible players last week, the Twins have solidified their projected 2019 payroll at around $96 million. That's about $30M below where they were last year (which was just below the MLB average), so needless to say they've got spending flexibility."

 

I may hbe off base here, but do we know for sure that the Twins are able to / planning on spending more than the $96M they are at?

 

When I look around Target Field, I'm seeing more and more empty seats.  I also believe that their season ticket holder and corporate sponsor base is diminishing.  If I'm ownership and are seeing that, I might not be so quick to add too much to the payroll.

 

I certainly hope that is not the case...

 

You will not get Joe Fan back without putting a winning product on the field.  This is not hockey or football which has a big natural base to draw from.  Please give the fans some hope and at least put some more money into this franchise.  It is possible some money is being reserved for extensions of key young players, if that is the case, let's get it done.

[Mr. Brooks]

Average payroll in MLB over the past 5 years (via BP):

 

2014: $115M

2015: $125M

2016: $130M

2017: $136M

2018: $135M

 

The Twins are currently at $98 million. They have money to spend. Lots.

What does average payroll have to do with what the Twins will spend?

Aside from last year, with $50 million BamTec payment, how have they compared historically to average payroll?

2014: 30 million under league average.

2015: 17 million under league average.

2016: 25 million under league average.

2017: 28 million under league average.

 

That's an average of 25 million under league average over the period you referenced, which would likely cap payroll at around 110 million this year, as I've been saying for close to a year now.

[mike8791]

Nice read, Nick!  Why the FO has waited this long to sign a "closer" when our current bullpen so obviously needs  one, is mystifying.  They have the money to overpay if necessary and any one of the three remaining candidates, Kimbrel, Ottavino, or Allen, would in all likelihood be far better than anyone we had last year and certainly yards ahead of our current roster.  Their desire to wait for the market to come to them incurs the huge risk that one of the big boys(Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.) will swoop in and grab these three.  Where would that leave Twin prospects in 2019?

 

My personal preference is Ottavino over Allen, mainly because of the risk that Allen's arm is used up, perhaps similar to Reed's.  The Sox grabbed Herrera for two years at $8MM/yr.  We should have done that!  While Ottavino has really only excelled one year, and that was not as a closer, he appears to have the stuff to be a dominant closer for 2-3 years.  A three year contract at $8-10MM/yr would not break the bank and allow some of our more inexperienced relievers to settle gradually into a back end bullpen role.   With that said, if Ottavino is simply not interested in coming to the Twin Cities(he is a Brooklyn-bred boy), then a two year contract for Allen would be a very suitable substitution, at similar numbers.

 

Why this FO is so passive this offseason(one FA signing!  one!!) is a real mystery.  I can only surmise they do not feel the Twins are legitimate contenders this year, despite being in the weakest division in the league.  Well, the way this offseason is developing, looks like that non-contention will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Mr. Brooks]

Nice read, Nick! Why the FO has waited this long to sign a "closer" when our current bullpen so obviously needs one, is mystifying. They have the money to overpay if necessary and any one of the three remaining candidates, Kimbrel, Ottavino, or Allen, would in all likelihood be far better than anyone we had last year and certainly yards ahead of our current roster. Their desire to wait for the market to come to them incurs the huge risk that one of the big boys(Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.) will swoop in and grab these three. Where would that leave Twin prospects in 2019?

 

My personal preference is Ottavino over Allen, mainly because of the risk that Allen's arm is used up, perhaps similar to Reed's. The Sox grabbed Herrera for two years at $8MM/yr. We should have done that! While Ottavino has really only excelled one year, and that was not as a closer, he appears to have the stuff to be a dominant closer for 2-3 years. A three year contract at $8-10MM/yr would not break the bank and allow some of our more inexperienced relievers to settle gradually into a back end bullpen role. With that said, if Ottavino is simply not interested in coming to the Twin Cities(he is a Brooklyn-bred boy), then a two year contract for Allen would be a very suitable substitution, at similar numbers.

 

Why this FO is so passive this offseason(one FA signing! one!!) is a real mystery. I can only surmise they do not feel the Twins are legitimate contenders this year, despite being in the weakest division in the league. Well, the way this offseason is developing, looks like that non-contention will be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Cruz, Parker, Schoop, that's at least 3 free agents the Twins have signed.

[Major League Ready]

 

Average payroll in MLB over the past 5 years (via BP):

 

2014: $115M

2015: $125M

2016: $130M

2017: $136M

2018: $135M

 

The Twins are currently at $98 million. They have money to spend. Lots. 

 

It makes very little sense to use average payroll in setting expectations for this team.  Their revenue is $70M less than average.  Why would we expect their spending to be the same as teams with an incremental $50M in revenue.

 

MLB revenue eclipsed 10B which is 333M/yr average revenue.  The twins are around $260M or 78%. Therefore if the spend on par with other teams as a percentage, they would spend 78% of $135M or roughly $105M.

Edited January 16, 2019 by Major League Ready