Article: Can the Twins Be Competitive With Their Current Bullpen?

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don’t think it’s quite THAT simple. A good bullpen piece could help the Twins hit 90 wins but in all likelihood, that guy is worth 2-3 wins by pushing the bullpen from acceptable to good.

But this is likely an 80-85 win team if things break neutral. To me, you sign that bullpen arm in case things break RIGHT. If things break right, the team could easily cross 90 wins.

And you put yourself in the position to be truly good if things break right, not in a position to be kinda maybe good if things break right.

 

Depth in the bullpen has a trickle down effect also.  You keep guys fresh, pumping heat, and can play matchups.  

 

Look no further than last year for what can happen if your manager only trusts two guys.  

 

The answer to the blog's question is: No.  It won't kill them, they won't truly be competing for anything noteworthy unless we add more than Parker.

[Shaitan]

I want to believe that Molitor bp management played a bit role, overusing some arms 'til they fell off and ignoring others... but we'll see. Maybe some of these pitchers are just really streaky. Both Rogers and Hildenberger have had excellent half-seasons two years in a row now.

[rghrbek]

 

I want to believe that Molitor bp management played a bit role, overusing some arms 'til they fell off and ignoring others... but we'll see. Maybe some of these pitchers are just really streaky. Both Rogers and Hildenberger have had excellent half-seasons two years in a row now.

This.

 

Reed maybe had already been over used at his previous employer but he was throwing much faster early with us than later.  We kinda beat him to death and then he was terrible.  Same with Hildy.  He was young and new to high leverage and we hammered him.  I don't know if that was the reason for both guys regressing, but Reed had a positive track record before our coaching staff got a hold of him.  

Rogers and May were fantastic last year and hopefully with smart usage they will be good again.

I think Magil was a great surprise and his velo and K ability were good but there were days when they would not use him.  The old coaching staff hammered the same guys in the same situations.  

Todays bullpens you have to give rest as they pitch so much more.  If our new staff is cognizant of that, I think we will be ok.  Would love one more solid arm though.

 

Reed is the big question, if he gets his velocity back he will be fine, if not, he's done, as we saw.

[beckmt]

I think Vasquez is a wild card piece and will be with the Twins. Magill I do not trust and Twins will need more than one multiple inning reliver. Twins may need two more multiple inning guys.(or maybe an opener). Can see where the Twins roll with current staff, think tactically this would be an error. White Sox could decide to try and fill the vacuum with some high level additions and we could be looking at the Yankees problem, needing to win over 100 games to win the division.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I want to believe that Molitor bp management played a bit role, overusing some arms 'til they fell off and ignoring others... but we'll see. Maybe some of these pitchers are just really streaky. Both Rogers and Hildenberger have had excellent half-seasons two years in a row now.

The article didn't mention it, but if I remember right, both Hildy and Reed were in the top 10 in IP at the points in the season where they turned into pumpkins despite being on a team that had played considerably less games due to all the weather (mostly snow) cancellations. 

 

I don't think there's a scenario where you cannot say that Molitor didn't cause this. We saw the same behavior with RPs under Gardy as well. Overuse, without question, affects RP durability and performance. I'm hoping that changes with Rocco. 

 

The real question at hand is whether they can bounce back. 

 

This underscores the need, in my opinion, to do what Brock suggests and get one more really good arm. They really should make that a priority. 

[Major League Ready]

 

is it just me or is it kind of silly to add a bunch of power bats then refuse to upgrade 1-2 bullpen spots, at least one starter or a left handed bat that can be insurance if Sano flakes out again? We can leave it alone and be a .500 team, or address the obvious and win 90-95. Simple.

 

Are you saying they should get a back-up 3B that could come close to what is expected of Sano? Can you name an example that would be available? I will also need some help understanding how these changes will add 14 wins from 500 to 95 wins. Given we are not projecting replacement level from Sano, or the 5th starter, I would say those players would have to project at 17-18 WAR. I would love to hear your plan to accomplish this feat.

Edited January 12, 2019 by Major League Ready

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Are you saying they should get a back-up 3B that could come close to what is expected of Sano? Can you name an example that would be available? I will also need some help understanding how these changes will add 14 wins from 500 to 95 wins. Given we are not projecting replacement level from Sano, or the 5th starter, I would say those players would have to project at 17-18 WAR. I would love to hear your plan to accomplish this feat.

Honestly, I think Astrudillo is that guy. He's got an option, so they can stash him in AAA... not ideal if Sano has one of those 4 day nagging injuries, but it will be acceptable if Sano hits the DL for any period of time. 

[ashbury]

Are you saying they should get a back-up 3B that could come close to what is expected of Sano? Can you name an example that would be available? I will also need some help understanding how these changes will add 14 wins from 500 to 95 wins. Given we are not projecting replacement level from Sano, or the 5th starter, I would say those players would have to project at 17-18 WAR. I would love to hear your plan to accomplish this feat.

Get a few new guys and then depend on Team Chemistry to solve everything.

[wabene]

There are three big factors that will help determine how well our current bp does. Castro's framing, Buxton in center(outfield defense) and the coaching staff. It's been beaten to death but bullpen usage is an area that could see HUGE improvement.

[howieramone2]

 

Can they be? Sure. We could get bounce-back years from Reed and Hildy, great performances from Rogers, May, Blake Parker, (not sold myself on Magill), and fill in the remaining two or three spots with some combination of Moya, Vasquez, Stewart, Gonsalves, Romero, Littell, Duffy (just when you think you can count a guy out, his curveball could become the wipeout pitch it once was), Jake Reed, Curtiss.  Mejia could be a 5th starter or a reliever. That's a lot of guys for very few positions.

 

I have argued previously that it is impossible to look outside the organization for 1-2 arms (Ottavino and Allen, in your example), and then give effective opportunity to the above list. Even with injuries and releases of the truly unproductive, the roster does not expand to give meaningful chances to 5-10 other arms. Signing two veterans to guaranteed contracts at modestly-high AAVs pretty much ensures that you cannot. In addition, those signings prohibit the type of roster manipulation, demotions and promotions of the un-tenured with options, even to attempt such a tryout or rotating door expansion of what is possible.

 

Right now, I think Reed, Hildy, Parker, Rogers and May are fairly certain to start the year on the 25-man; assuming Mejia is 5th starter (and he's out of options), that leaves 3 spots open. I could justify adding one arm from the outside, but if we do more than that on major-league deals, we will probably not improve the unit to the degree where the addition outweighs the audition. We have to find out who we have and where we're headed with that glut of candidates already on the 40-man (or risk watching the best candidates float away in a season of anonymity). That strategy, I would argue, takes more guts and has a greater potential, than almost any multi-year reliever deal out there, regardless of dollars.

 

As evidence, though I don't have the evidence in front of me, look at the guys who broke through last year to become valuable BP pieces around the league. Almost all of them came from within an organization and auditioned and became valuable while still 22-23 years old, not because they were acquired from outside.

I doubt there was more than a couple of relievers than became valuable at 22-23.

Edited January 12, 2019 by howieramone2

[twinssporto]

 

Bullpens are so weird. 

 

The San Diego Padres ranked 29th in reliever fWAR at 0.8 in 2017, then jumped all the way up to second in 2018 with 8.7 fWAR. How did they do it? Well, they traded away two of their best bullpen guys on July 19. 

 

Wait ... what!?!?!?

 

No marquee additions, no changes to the pitching or bullpen coach and they traded away Brad Hand and Adam Cimber. Yet their bullpen ERA went from 4.49 to 3.53 and the FIP went from 4.69 to 3.31. How did that happen? Well, a lot of the kind of stuff that's mentioned in this article.

 

Obviously, that's probably not the best business model to emulate, but bullpens are weird. 

I agree with this too.  Unless there was some lights out FA reliever still sitting out there use your home grown arms to build the pen. Cycle the guys in the minors through the system and see what sticks.  A lot of teams find gems like that all the time.

[Channing1964]

Are you saying they should get a back-up 3B that could come close to what is expected of Sano? Can you name an example that would be available? I will also need some help understanding how these changes will add 14 wins from 500 to 95 wins. Given we are not projecting replacement level from Sano, or the 5th starter, I would say those players would have to project at 17-18 WAR. I would love to hear your plan to accomplish this feat.

Actually i do have a plan. Marwin Gonzalez would be my first choice. Now you dont need to keep Cave or Adrianza on the 25 man roster. If he is gone there is still Moustakas, Dietrich, Harrison(not lh) or Asdrubal Cabrera. Available starters are Gio Gonzalez, Wade Miley, or Clay Bucholz, and in the pen i would add Cody Allen and Tony Sipp. I did not say 95 wins, I said 9/-95...most pears 90 wins gets you a playoff berth.

[h2oface]

How quick we forget. Hildenberger, during the "good" part of his season, at one point had let 7 out of 7 inherited runners score.... all charged to his teammates, and his stats still looked like he was doing great. I think the hitters have caught up to his gimmick, and hope the leash is not too long.

 

I am extremely disappointed that the FO did not get Ramos. Betting that Castro will be a plus this year, his lame duck year, coming back from injuries, is hoping for luck. He is prone to passed balls, his bat was already declining, and the last thing this lineup needs is another bat that doesn't hit. Garver is still a question as to whether he will come back from the concussion. 

 

There is a reason (probabaly several) that the Angels, Brewers/Orioles, and Rays let the guys go that we picked up. This is the offseason of doing nothing except hoping that the guys actually perform. Baseball doesn't care how old you are once the game starts. The age excuse is so tired.

[Nine of twelve]

 

Amen.  This is why I don't flip out over the bullpen now.  In '02 who in the world know LaTroy Hawkins, JC Romero and Tony Fiore would make our bullpen a solid unit?

 

ANSWER:  No one

I can't prove it, but I knew LaTroy was set for a big year going in to that season.

[Thrylos]

 

The article didn't mention it, but if I remember right, both Hildy and Reed were in the top 10 in IP at the points in the season where they turned into pumpkins

 

That's a bit of a myth.

Fact:

 

Hildenbergen's ERA/Opponents OPS per month.

 

March/April  4.15/.827
May 1.93/.613
June 3.55/.641
July 5.40/.818
August 6.75/.971
Sept 14.04/.949

 

He really started falling apart at the end of June, and other than May and bit of June he was not all that great.  His March/April was bad, but was lucky that did not reflect to his ERA. 

 

Only 2 months of the season he was an acceptable MLB pitcher.

[DocBauer]

I don’t think it’s quite THAT simple. A good bullpen piece could help the Twins hit 90 wins but in all likelihood, that guy is worth 2-3 wins by pushing the bullpen from acceptable to good.

 

But this is likely an 80-85 win team if things break neutral. To me, you sign that bullpen arm in case things break RIGHT. If things break right, the team could easily cross 90 wins.

 

And you put yourself in the position to be truly good if things break right, not in a position to be kinda maybe good if things break right.

I have to echo this!

 

A few weeks back. Falvey was on local radio with Judd in the TC and the question/comment posed to him was the potential of a 10-12 game swing upward in 2019 if a few things broke right. Falvey agreed, of course. But the central point of the question was how much went wrong in 2018. No need to re-hash all of that.

 

But I am in agreement with that assessment, and Brock here. I also agree with a "trickle down" effect in the pen if you add one more quality arm. To me, the obvious choice is Allen. You create depth, and you gain experience. Now Reed, who finished well, does not have to be the closer. Nor does May. Nor does anyone else from Parker on down. You are building depth. Good guys, a deep bullpen, is what you want. Not relying on just a few arms, or using them in obvious loss situations as Molitor did too often. (As if hoping for a comeback win). And the season is long and you need depth.

 

Give me what we have, add one more veteran guy like Allen, and this bullpen, talent, depth, numbers, etc, I feel SO MUCH BETTER. Everything that went wrong last season, 23/24+ 1 run losses, and a better pen to reverse that horrible number...yea...I see a potential 90ish win team.

[Channing1964]

Versatile infielder that either switch hits or bats left + solid proven closer or back end bull pen guy+ proven veteran left handed starter = + 15 wins....Simple

[DocBauer]

Yeah me either but Astusdillo is great i agree. Castro is going to be the guy cuz of his contract. As an injury replacement guy Williams is priceless, plus i think he has at least one more option year. Tyler Austin we hardly knew ya.

I think a healthy Castro helps this team in a variety of ways. But I am not convinced he starts. Garver showed defensive improvement and offers quality offense. He's also a part of the future.

[DocBauer]

Versatile infielder that either switch hits or bats left + solid proven closer or back end bull pen guy+ proven veteran left handed starter = + 15 wins....Simple

Agree with the pen addition. Not as concerned with an infielder that hits LH or switches, just an option for depth and versatility. What happens if someone goes down or just stinks? I like Adrianza, just not as an extended option.

 

There ARE infield options out there, even on the cheap, to provide depth, versatility, a bat and some production, even if their last name is not Gonzalez.

 

And while I would LOVE the FO to just GO FOR IT with Marwin, there are other interesting options. Biggest bite is, I hate an 8 man pen and a short bench, but think we are headed that way. Hope I am wrong.

 

I think your LHSP is Mejia and Gonsalves and Thorpe coming up.

[MN_ExPat]

 

Great debut article, welcome!

 

I concur.   Nice write up and welcome to the Twins Daily family.   Looking forward to more.

[HrbieFan]

One bad stretch can wreck a RPs stats for the year. So you have to look beyond the stays. Hildy has gotten hit hard for a few months and wasn't good finishing 2017 either. He is nothing more than a middle inning guy to me. I want to believe that May can do it, but that is probably the MN Homer in me thinking that. Reed was awesome last year, hope it is a trend. Some young guys deserve an extended shot. That being said, I don't see a closer on this staff. Hope they put some money out there for a FA that can battle for the closers job

[twins_89]

I feel like the Twins need one more reliable late inning reliever. It seems like there is a lot of uncertainty with the current relief group where you don't know what you'll get from a number of the guys. I have concerns about Reed's velocity loss and if he will bounce back this season. Hildenberger and May have had success in the majors, but they also have injury and inconsistency concerns. I'm not sold on Magill or Duffey and the other options (Curtiss, Moya, and Vasquez) are all unproven. The only guys I have much confidence in are Parker and Rogers.

[bird]

 

Can they be competitive? Sure. Will they be competitive? Maybe, but it will require a pretty big helping of luck.

And I don’t like relying on luck.

One more good bullpen arm and this pen is adequate with an upside of good. Go get that arm.

 

Yes. What does it hurt to add one more really good reliever to the mix, besides the feelings of Magill's mom?

 

I do disagree with the notion that we should not have added the three arms last year, for two reasons: First, what does it hurt? Second, I think we underestimate the opportunity to flip relievers at the deadline. Teams desperate for help overpay. For example, Zack Duke netted us Chase De Jong, who IMO is an under-the-radar insurance starter, a B prospect,  who most clubs would love to have in AAA in 2019. If guys like Jake Reed and Matt Magill are pushed out, trade them for low minors flyers and move on. If John Curtiss lights it up in Rochester, move Addison Reed at the deadline. I didn't like the Pressly trade at the time, but you can't argue with the return of Alcala and Celestino.

Edited January 13, 2019 by birdwatcher

[Linus]

No. With nothing but questions in the pen and no real top pen prospects it would be malpractice if they don’t add arms to the pen

[Twodogs]

I think Hildenberger has been figured out, I think he was deceptive and he was overused and is no longer that deceptive. Hopefully Reed can bounce back. But someone said it earlier that the bullpen is really a reflection of the starting staff. So now everyone is worried about how the starter does the 2nd and 3rd time through the order etc.... Well if your bullpen averages 4 innings every game that means that your bullpen will pitch 648 innings over the course of the year. If you divide that by 7 pitchers, because every team out there hopes and prays that they can have at least a 4 man bench not including the DH then those 7 relievers will average 92.6 innings per season. So if your 5 starters average 5 innings each that means that each of the starting pitchers will avearge a little over 160 innings each. So it is an innings issue directly related to the starting staff. In a day and age where 200 inning starters are getting really hard to find it is putting direct pressure on the bullpen. If all 5 of your starters can average 6 innings that means that all 5 of them would have to pitch 194.4 innings per season!!! When was the last time we have seen a staff with 5 guys all over 190 innings pitched?? However if that was the case, then your relief staff would have to pitch 486 innings on the year which would add up to about 70 innings per pitcher for a 7 man bullpen. It's really really hard not to over use these guys in an era where we are pulling starters after 5 innings all the time.

 

So I had a little idea, not sure if it would work or not, but with the situation of the Twins and you have a lot of young starters that are trying to build up innings every year such as Romero, Mejia, etc... What if you went with a starting staff where your top 3 pitchers start 32 games each and the last two spots in the rotation are manned by 3 guys, Pineda, (not sure how many innings he can go after TJ), Mejia, and Romero all combine to start 22 games each. If they can average 6 innings per start that would put them at about 130 inning on the season each, then since they will be starting only like every 7th or 8th day maybe they could get another 30 innings each out of them in the bullpen?? That would put all 3 of them at about 160 innings and if your top 3 can get like 200 out of Berrios, and Gibson and maybe 180 - 190 out of Odorizzi then those 6 guys will have pitched 1070 innings which would leave 388 innings for the other 6 guys in the bullpen which would put them all at about 64 - 65 innings pitched for each of them?? I would get rid of Hildy and replace him with Ottavino or Allen, and I'd probably get rid of Magill and replace him with someone like Gonsalves or Little etc... In case one of Pineda, Romero, or Mejia fail then that guy can come in and be in that 4th 5th 6th starter rotation?? Have to have one of your bench guys with options so you can send them down for a week here and there for when you need to add a 13th pitcher to your bullpen like a Curtis, Vasquez, etc.... Under current methods the bullpen is always going to be overused I feel that this will even happen moreso with the new opener methods being looked at. So bullpens are always going to be over used and it actually might be one of the reasons there are a lot of free agent RP's? Their former teams probably know something already.

[Crackedfungo]

I don’t think either Reed or hildenberger return to former levels. Reed had a better shot, but only if he recaptures velocity lost. Hildenberger just doesn’t have the ‘stuff.’ I am betting our 2nd or 3rd best reliever will come from Stewart (Sinker and 94mph), or Romero Slider and 99mph). This assumes neither makes it as a starter. I would not pick up my more ‘innings eater’ or ‘crafty veterans.’ Let the friggin kids play finally - I have no interest in watching the Belisle types struggle and fail. I would rather see a young kid struggle, fail, and learn

[Crackedfungo]

, Gonsalves, Littell and DeJong can be other alternatives as short starters or relievers (in that order). We need to see what we have here and clean up the 40 man before the next wave is knocking on door

[Thiéres Rabelo]

Congratulations Baby! I am  proud for you

Love you

Ana Kelly Martins Rabelo

[jorgenswest]

I would have 5 solid relievers that I would count on to get to the end of games.

 

The 5 now appear to be

 

Rogers, May, Reed, Parker and Magill.

 

Would anyone argue that is competitive? It is hard to be sure that any can be counted on. They need to put somebody in the front of that list and let the others fight it out or a roster spot.

 

I want a 12 man staff to allow a fourth bench spot for a bat like Astudillo so the last two spots need options.

 

Two of these guys make it with the others in Rochester waiting for the shuttle.

 

Moya, Hildenberger, Duffey, Vazquez, De Jong and the AAA starters. If Jay or Reed look good during the season put them on the 40 and get them on the shuttle.

 

They fight it out for the two spots. Romero can win one of the top 5 or be in Rochester and starting. Rogers has an option and can join this group but they are going to need to add two relievers to the top 5 before that happens.

Edited January 14, 2019 by jorgenswest

[curt1965]

When I used to play fantasy baseball, I never sent “big” money on stud relievers in the saves category for one reason: there is ALWAYS someone who comes out of nowhere to be the new staff savior. My point: we have plenty of guys in the system who could be that new ace reliever. Give everyone a chance in SP, and may the best player (or players) win! And it will probably be necessary to keep the Rochester shuttle busy when we weed out the “dead wood.”

Last point: I agree with Seth that Curtiss could be very interesting. Molly had an extremely short lease with him, and he never really had a chance to show his potential.