Article: Best Remaining No-Risk Starters on the Free Agent Market

[ChrisKnutson]

With all the success that the FO has had in the draft, IMO I think they can afford to give up one prospect in order to sign Keuchel. Also, I don’t see why teams are so hesitant about giving him 5 years, as if he’s declining, it’s not like his velocity has dropped that much, if at all.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

If you want to sign either of those guys to a minor league contract, may have to wait until just before spring training or during spring training.  Those guys will probably wait until close to spring training to take a minor league deal.

You still have about 5 starters that have pitched in the major leagues last year, most are ticketed for Rochester.  Would hate to wait until next year to see what we have, because next year you will almost certainly need 2 - 3 of them.

Exactly beck, it could even be 4 depending upon how Mejia fares as an every turn ML SP.

 

I just don't get it. By not signing anyone to long-term deals for these past 3-4 off seasons they are backing themselves into a corner. 2019 is the time to find out if any of our depth is worth counting on for the future.

 

Awful job of developing by this org and an even worse job of turning excess minor league talent into usable ML assets. The Odorizzi deal is the type I refer to. I'm not a huge Odor fan but we should be seeing more of these when we are in avoidance of giving out long-term FA deals.

[jorgenswest]

Exactly beck, it could even be 4 depending upon how Mejia fares as an every turn ML SP.

 

I just don't get it. By not signing anyone to long-term deals for these past 3-4 off seasons they are backing themselves into a corner. 2019 is the time to find out if any of our depth is worth counting on for the future.

 

Awful job of developing by this org and an even worse job of turning excess minor league talent into usable ML assets. The Odorizzi deal is the type I refer to. I'm not a huge Odor fan but we should be seeing more of these when we are in avoidance of giving out long-term FA deals.

Pretty sure that both the Santana and Hughes deals included control this season. Santana was 4 off seasons ago so maybe that doesn’t fit the qualifier. The Twins committed around 170 million for 14 years of Nolasco, Hughes and Santana with an option for 1 more year. The return was 3 good seasons. Lance Lynn was looking for 4 and 60 last year. Maybe we should have done that long term deal instead.

[killertwinfan]

With our luck dipping into "bargain pool"  or any pool when it comes to pitching, money is better spent elsewhere.  Good luck to our young arms!

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Pretty sure that both the Santana and Hughes deals included control this season. Santana was 4 off seasons ago so maybe that doesn’t fit the qualifier. The Twins committed around 170 million for 14 years of Nolasco, Hughes and Santana with an option for 1 more year. The return was 3 good seasons. Lance Lynn was looking for 4 and 60 last year. Maybe we should have done that long term deal instead.

Twins got some good mileage out of that Santana deal. The original Hughes deal was good. Many foresaw that Nolasco would stink. We'll see how Lynn fares in Tx. The point is you have to take some long-term risks or you'll forever be facing what we could potentially be facing next off-season.

 

So yeah, Santana was signed in Dec of 2014. What long-term commitment has been made since? A couple one and an option and a 2 year Reed deal is about it.

[howieramone2]

 

If we aren't going to sign a Keuchel or Gio Gonzalez type and we aren't, then we should be seeing what we have in these younger arms. Because sadly after 2019 we will be left with a rotation of Berrios, ?, ?, ?, ?.

 

Very likely Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda will all be gone before or after this season ends. We have awful future depth looking us square in the eyes.

I would say it's unlikely all 3 are gone. It is likely we can pencil in 2 of Thorpe, Mejia, or Romero. 2020 is still a long ways away. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

We have seen this happen too often with the Twins for me to welcome it.  Either go get a player with upside (Sonny Gray!  Sonny Gray!) or go in-house.  

I don't understand the mindset that it's preferable to trade a player and guarantee a roster spot (+ $9M) for Gray rather than sign one of the players listed here to a non-guaranteed deal. If Gray has upside then so do a number of these guys. He's been terrible in two of the last three seasons while averaging 130 innings.

[howieramone2]

Picking up a starting pitcher on a non-guaranteed deal is a can't lose situation. Why not.

[DocBauer]

Barring a trade for an absolute, top of the rotation arm...which is not going to happen at this point...I am 100% all in on who we have, auditioning the kids for now and 2020, etc.

 

But why on earth would you turn down a veteran arm on a MILB deal with no guarantees and no 40 man spot just to see if you get lucky?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

But why on earth would you turn down a veteran arm on a MILB deal with no guarantees and no 40 man spot just to see if you get lucky?

 

Ok, so let's say the Twins sign one of those guys to a minor league deal, and hope to get lucky.

 

Then what?

[ashbury]

Ok, so let's say the Twins sign one of those guys to a minor league deal, and hope to get lucky.

 

Then what?

I suppose the hope would be to use such luck to balance out certain kinds of bad luck. For instance a couple of starters go on the 60-day DL during spring, and only one of the young guys is deemed ready to face major league hitting full time. With spots on the 40-man thus available, you have someone you can plug in right away; if he does well, then you have an interesting decision to make in 60 days. I believe that would be the thinking.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Point being, and not trying to be argumentative, but someone within the Twins org identified Anibal Sanchez last spring, Twins signed him, but yet for some reason the Twins released him when someone better came along (Lance Lynn!) and Sanchez ended up in Atlanta. 

 

tl;dr it's not as simple as it seems once you make the guy an offer, bring him into camp, etc. Though I am not opposed to signing one of those guys. 

 

 

[Channing1964]

Bucholz would be good...I like the idea of a couple veteran lefties to compete for that last spot and let Mejia have some company as a lefty starter. Miley, Gio Gonzalez , and Derek Holland would be good. I still think we are a back end bullpen guy away from anyone taking us seriously. If you could get Buch and one of those leftys on a minor league tryout deal I'd be happy with our rotation.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Point being, and not trying to be argumentative, but someone within the Twins org identified Anibal Sanchez last spring, Twins signed him, but yet for some reason the Twins released him when someone better came along (Lance Lynn!) and Sanchez ended up in Atlanta. 

 

tl;dr it's not as simple as it seems once you make the guy an offer, bring him into camp, etc. Though I am not opposed to signing one of those guys. 

Exactly. The Twins made a mistake by pivoting away from the reclamation project and going with the "buy (relatively) high" route instead. Had they just stuck with Sanchez they'd have ended up with a nice asset on their hands. But I'm not totally sure why that anomaly of a situation has any bearing on what we're talking about here.

 

If, say, Chris Tillman comes into camp healthy, and Johnson or Hefner help him solve a few things, he could very well look like the best option for the fifth spot. This is a guy who had a 3.99 ERA in the AL East from 2014-16, and is only 30. So, in that event, you push Mejia and Romero to the bullpen and roll with him, or he fills the spot of someone else who gets hurt. I'm not seeing what's overly complex about this.

[ahart10]

 

Thinking outside the box of a five man rotation. How about signing two of these FA; Bucholz & Pomeranz, and going with a FOUR day EIGHT man rotation.

 

1)Berrios/Gonzo

2)Gibson/Mejia

3)Odor/Bucky2

4)Pineda/Pommy

 

Leaving 4 or 5 spots for the bullpen

 

1)May

2)Rogers

3)Reed

4)Romero, longman, “starter” replacement

5)Hildy or your choice of RP with options

 

Each pair making 40 starts and combing for ~300 innings = 1200, leaving less than 300 for the remaining 5 bullpen spots. It would be nice to get that out of the top four mentioned. Twins could then utilize an opener(Hildy, Vasquez?) for the fifth man who can share a roster spot with a position player(Astudillo) who also has options.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I'm not seeing what's overly complex about this.

Ok, so in spring training Tillman comes in, looks fit, good attitude, but after a few spring training outings, isn't getting results. 

 

Then what?

[Nick Nelson]

 

Ok, so in spring training Tillman comes in, looks fit, good attitude, but after a few spring training outings, isn't getting results. 

 

Then what?

Then you give him the option to head to Triple-A, or opt-out and become a free agent again. These kinds of arrangements take place almost every spring. (IF you don't need him anyway because others aren't ready/healthy.)

 

It's a game of musical chairs and someone like Tillman doesn't have a ton of leverage. Compared to other destinations, Minnesota is an attractive destination. No one has a firm grasp on the Twins' final rotation spot, and Pineda is penciled in despite throwing zero MLB innings last year.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Picking up a starting pitcher on a non-guaranteed deal is a can't lose situation. Why not.

To me the downside is these guys pitch to their career mediocreness and tie up a roster spot. In the meantime we still don't know what we have in the Stewart's and Gonsalves's.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I also doubt that Clay Buchholtz is willing to sign an milb deal at this point either. 

[DocBauer]

Ok, so let's say the Twins sign one of those guys to a minor league deal, and hope to get lucky.

 

Then what?

Ash and Nick pretty much answered, but my take is simple.

 

If the guy rebounds and looks surprisingly good, you've added another solid option for the rotation and you've added depth, depth to the pen where Mejia and Romero could both help.

 

If said guy doesn't flash, he goes to Rochester to continue to work while off the 40 man. He can still be released or opt out.

 

If, at whatever point, said signee looks good, there is the option to trade him, or anyone else, to bring in another asset or two.

 

All you are doing is bringing in a flier to see if you get lucky and build depth and possibilities.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

To me the downside is these guys pitch to their career mediocreness and tie up a roster spot.

Exactly.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Then you give him the option to head to Triple-A, or opt-out and become a free agent again. These kinds of arrangements take place almost every spring. (IF you don't need him anyway because others aren't ready/healthy.)

 

It's a game of musical chairs and someone like Tillman doesn't have a ton of leverage. Compared to other destinations, Minnesota is an attractive destination. No one has a firm grasp on the Twins' final rotation spot, and Pineda is penciled in despite throwing zero MLB innings last year.

 

Fair enough. I can't disagree with any of that, really. I guess I'd rather see them add to the top or middle of the rotation, and push everyone else down a spot, than add another guy to compete for the back end.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Ash and Nick pretty much answered, but my take is simple.

If the guy rebounds and looks surprisingly good, you've added another solid option for the rotation and you've added depth, depth to the pen where Mejia and Romero could both help.

If said guy doesn't flash, he goes to Rochester to continue to work while off the 40 man. He can still be released or opt out.

If, at whatever point, said signee looks good, there is the option to trade him, or anyone else, to bring in another asset or two.

All you are doing is bringing in a flier to see if you get lucky and build depth and possibilities.

Fair enough. Identifying the right guy is only half the battle. I'd rather see them add to the top of the rotation, or do something impactful with the young pitchers with options they already have. If that means a stacker or opener/primary, so be it (if it works ). They must have enough data on their pitchers by now to exploit certain matchups and put them in better spots for them to succeed.

[Mike Sixel]

Great pitcher, or see what the youth can actually do. That's my preference.

[ashbury]

To me the downside is these guys pitch to their career mediocreness and tie up a roster spot. In the meantime we still don't know what we have in the Stewart's and Gonsalves's.

Nothing about a MiLB deal obligates the team to do anything. I think the concern being expressed is about the front office not having the discipline to leave the spare tire in the trunk if none of the tires on the ground are running flat. And maybe, given past experience, that's a fair concern. But a signing itself, if one does occur, shouldn't be.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

To me the downside is these guys pitch to their career mediocreness and tie up a roster spot. In the meantime we still don't know what we have in the Stewart's and Gonsalves's.

there will be lots of innings for starters 6-8 in the big league rotation, but agreed. Pineda is the reclamation project and nothing is certain with him.

 

Now is the time to improve the middle of the rotation (trade for Gray or sign Gio) or go with what you got for the back.

[Doctor Wu]

Not much in the way of exciting pitchers on that list, although if they got Dallas Keuchel.or Gio Gonzalez on a 1-year deal that wouldn't be such an awful thing. And I like the Martin Perez idea that Chris floated. But if the Twins are truly serious about contending in 2019 I think they need to aim higher and trade for someone like Greinke or maybe even take a chance on Sonny Gray rebounding away from New York. I just don't think we can depend on Pineda as a solid rotation piece at this point, at least not until he shows that he's healthy and durable.

[killertwinfan]

Yes totally agree unless you can get them super cheap. However the  keyword "closer" for me.  I have not hear anyone writers or other talk about a closer.  What do people think will happen? Committee?

Mejia is a viable option when healthy.  I like him better than any of these options.

 

Grab a closer instead.

 

[Tibs]

The only problem I have with these "no risk" "minor league deals" with MLB veterans is it seems they always make the roster with the Twins.

[howieramone2]

 

To me the downside is these guys pitch to their career mediocreness and tie up a roster spot. In the meantime we still don't know what we have in the Stewart's and Gonsalves's.

If Stewart and/or Gonsalves are ready, these guys don't get a roster spot. When they are ready, you cut these guy. It's not that difficult a concept. The Yankees just made a move like this. Sanchez is a good example. He was the first starting pitcher we signed last off-season, on a very low risk deal and the board had kittens. When we got Odorizzi and Lynn, he was gone within 30 days.