Article: Let's Make A Deal (Arbitration Edition)

[Dman]

 

Name one other company in the US where following a terrible performance (like worst in the industry), an employee whines about the company to the media at a charity event, and in return, the company raises the pay and comes out and states that the employee will face no internal opposition the next spring for a job - in an industry where that is standard. 

 

That company, my friends, is the Minnesota Twins.

 

Golden Boy status has been passed down from Mauer to Buxton. No accountability required. 

 

I think that is a disingenuous characterization of what happened.  If you read the article Buxton believed he would need to compete for his job next\this year.  His only real beef with the Twins was he felt he was fully healed and had been playing well in AAA and the Twins didn't call him up in September and he has a good point there.  The Twins didn't call him up to save a year of service time which isn't exactly playing fair depending on how you look at it.  He didn't blame the Twins for doing it or say anything other than he didn't think that was completely fair to him and he seemed a little steamed about it.  I would bet he didn't like the way he played early in the year and the fact he never got a chance to redeem himself probably hurt as well.  I can understand that.  Competitors like to compete not go home while the season hasn't ended yet.

 

I am not sure what your beef is with the Twins stating he doesn't have any real competition for the position.  When healthy he is the best defensive center fielder in baseball.  You can't get anyone better.  Yeah he has issues at the plate and that is a concern but the only way he can get better is to keep trying at the MLB level.

 

By gaining\stealing that extra year of service they cost Buxton some serious money.  The least they could do is be a little generous in arbitration.

Edited January 11, 2019 by Dman

[Seth Stohs]

Updated with deals for Taylor Rogers and Kyle Gibson. Appears only Eddie Rosario remains. 

 

 

[Dman]

Glad they went a little higher with Kyle since they took him to arbitration last year.  Was kind of hoping they could work out an extension but I would guess Kyle wants to bet on himself and see what happens.

 

Looks like most of the numbers worked out about how everyone expected them to,.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Glad they went a little higher with Kyle since they took him to arbitration last year.  Was kind of hoping they could work out an extension but I would guess Kyle wants to bet on himself and see what happens.

 

Looks like most of the numbers worked out about how everyone expected them to,.

 

There is no reason that they can't still work out an extension. Both sides may or may not want to.

 

I know a year ago at Twins Fest, it was clear that Brian Dozier wanted to sign with the Twins and stay here for a long time. The front office seemingly had no interest in that. With Gibson, I don't know. I'm sure Gibson would like to stay, but he also probably wants to experience free agency. 

[ewen21]

 

And any other team in MLB where the same situation would arise at the same time since those are the rules of arbitration... 

The Twins avoided arbitration and gave him a better deal than he would have gotten had he gone through the process.

[ewen21]

It's a "conciliatory gesture" to avoid unpleasantness. Too late. That ship sailed

[sthpstm]

Updated now for Kepler and May who both agreed to terms.

Sorry, what? How did Trevor May sign for less than the number offered by the Twins? That’s perplexing.

[Mr. Brooks]

The Twins avoided arbitration and gave him a better deal than he would have gotten had he gone through the process.

You have no way of knowing what he would have gotten in arbitration.

[Mr. Brooks]

Sorry, what? How did Trevor May sign for less than the number offered by the Twins? That’s perplexing.

These were predictions by Seth, not numbers actually submitted.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Sorry, what? How did Trevor May sign for less than the number offered by the Twins? That’s perplexing.

IKR! Team offered 1 mil, settle on 900k makes no sense, unless there are appearance incentives or rounding errors

[Richie the Rally Goat]

These were predictions by Seth, not numbers actually submitted.

the settlement was an estimate. The player and team submissions appear to be published

[Seth Stohs]

 

Sorry, what? How did Trevor May sign for less than the number offered by the Twins? That’s perplexing.

 

The Player Number and the Team Number were just my guesses for where those sides might come in if they had to exchange numbers. 

[Mr. Brooks]

the settlement was an estimate. The player and team submissions appear to be published

I don't believe it even reached the stage yet where they'd submitted numbers.

Can you link where these submissions were published?

[howieramone2]

 

It's a "conciliatory gesture" to avoid unpleasantness. Too late. That ship sailed

The ship doesn't sail for 4 years. If he wants to become rich before then, there is only 1 number he can call.

[ewen21]

 

The ship doesn't sail for 4 years. If he wants to become rich before then, there is only 1 number he can call.

That ship sailed as far as the unpleasantness goes

[ewen21]

 

You have no way of knowing what he would have gotten in arbitration.

Is this a rebuttal?  When you say something like that it sure sounds like one.  So how about this.....

 

Here is what we do know: Team Buxton took the deal.  If they thought they had a strong chance doing better in arbitration they'd have gone for it.  Dare I say they have more knowledge of the situation?  Traderumors.com projected 1.2 million for him.  Are you a more reliable source than those two entities that are much closer to the situation that either of us? 

If you can explain to me how an arbiter would rule in favor of a deal greater than what Buxton got from the Twins then please explain your rationale behind that one because it really makes no sense to me.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I don't believe it even reached the stage yet where they'd submitted numbers.

Can you link where these submissions were published?

you are right, Friday was the deadline to file or settle. Being that they settled, the team prolly didn’t file.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/everything-you-need-to-know-from-mlbs-2019-salary-arbitration-filing-deadline/

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/salary-arbitration

[Mr. Brooks]

Is this a rebuttal? When you say something like that it sure sounds like one. So how about this.....

 

Here is what we do know: Team Buxton took the deal. If they thought they had a strong chance doing better in arbitration they'd have gone for it. Dare I say they have more knowledge of the situation? Traderumors.com projected 1.2 million for him. Are you a more reliable source than those two entities that are much closer to the situation that either of us?

If you can explain to me how an arbiter would rule in favor of a deal greater than what Buxton got from the Twins then please explain your rationale behind that one because it really makes no sense to me.

You are the one claiming to know what he would have gotten in arbitration.

 

The fact he settled, alone, is hardly some kind of evidence that they threw him an olive branch. 90% of the cases in baseball will settle before going to arbitration.

 

Neither one of us know what he would have received.

Nor do MLB trade rumors. They are guessing, just like us.

[Mike Sixel]

Name one other company in the US where following a terrible performance (like worst in the industry), an employee whines about the company to the media at a charity event, and in return, the company raises the pay and comes out and states that the employee will face no internal opposition the next spring for a job - in an industry where that is standard.

 

That company, my friends, is the Minnesota Twins.

 

Golden Boy status has been passed down from Mauer to Buxton. No accountability required.

Or an industry where employees can't switch companies for about ten years... Counting time in the minus minors.

 

This is all part of the contract they agree to, and has nothing to do with accountability.

[jokin]

 

 

 

By gaining\stealing that extra year of service they cost Buxton some serious money.  The least they could do is be a little generous in arbitration.

 

"Serious money."

 

This common perception has had a lot of evidence-supported pushback. Buxton is in the situation he finds himself in largely based on what he has thus far accomplished (or not).

 

Which begs the question... how much is a player worth during his arb years strictly based on promise versus actual performance? "Hurt feelings" aside, the fact remains, when/(if) Buck finally has the monster season (7+ fWAR), the big extension offer will come in, and in the process he stands to make back all of the money he "lost" during this first round of arb-eligibility.

Edited January 13, 2019 by jokin

[ewen21]

 

Neither one of us know what he would have received.
Nor do MLB trade rumors. They are guessing, just like us.

 

With this rationale almost every single article posted here this winter falls under your. "you have no way of knowing" classification.

 

To post this "you have no way of knowing" at stuff is useless.  EVERYTHING at this time of the year is timber for a discussion.  If you don't agree with me than make your point please.  if you don't have one then have a good day.

Edited January 13, 2019 by ewen21

[ashbury]

With this rationale almost every single article posted here this winter falls under your. "you have no way of knowing" classification.

 

To post this "you have no way of knowing" at stuff is useless.  EVERYTHING at this time of the year is timber for a discussion.  If you don't agree with me than make your point please.  if you don't have one then have a good day.

Moderator's note: This bickering tangent, about who knows anything with certainty, has nothing to do with Seth's response to someone complaining that Buxton will receive a pay increase relative to 2018, namely that the arbitration system under the Basic Agreement bakes pay raises into the system, and I ask that it stop.

[Dman]

 

"Serious money."

 

This common perception has had a lot of evidence-supported pushback. Buxton is in the situation he finds himself in largely based on what he has thus far accomplished (or not).

 

Which begs the question... how much is a player worth during his arb years strictly based on promise versus actual performance? "Hurt feelings" aside, the fact remains, when/(if) Buck finally has the monster season (7+ fWAR), the big extension offer will come in, and in the process he stands to make back all of the money he "lost" during this first round of arb-eligibility

 

Sure I get what you are saying.  If he plays well or well enough to be a star payer his arb awards will be large enough to make up some of the money he would have gained being a FA a year earlier but I doubt his arb awards and arb awards in general work out better money wise than being on the market as a free agent and that is what he lost by not being able to play at the end of season.

 

Was his play great to start the season I would say no.  Did he deserve another shot after being healthy and playing better at AAA I think so.  Does he need to be accountable for what happened absolutely and I haven't heard him say anything to make me think he hasn't accepted responsibility for the way his season went.  The only question he had was why after he was healthy he wasn't called up and the FO seemed pretty quiet on that front.

 

It is impossible to know how he will do in the future but if you believe he finally hits just a little and he is already "the" or at least "a" premier defensive center fielder in all of baseball then the odds of him generating a large deal seem pretty good to me.  If that were to happen I don't think his arb awards will get him close to what he makes by getting to free agency a year earlier.

 

If he never is any good then none of this probably really matters.  If anything the Twins would have been more generous to him than he probably deserves.

 

 

[Dman]

 

"Serious money."

 

This common perception has had a lot of evidence-supported pushback. Buxton is in the situation he finds himself in largely based on what he has thus far accomplished (or not).

 

Which begs the question... how much is a player worth during his arb years strictly based on promise versus actual performance? "Hurt feelings" aside, the fact remains, when/(if) Buck finally has the monster season (7+ fWAR), the big extension offer will come in, and in the process he stands to make back all of the money he "lost" during this first round of arb-eligibility.

 

I see, I misunderstood your post.  So you are saying if he does finally prove himself the Twins could give him an extension that would make up for the lost year of service time.  That is something I hadn't considered and would work well.  Play well then get rewarded properly.  Yep that makes sense too.  If he performs everything could take care of itself if both sides can agree.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I am not into extending Buxton or Kepler at this time.  I also think it is wrong to assume that Buxton is "worth it" on his defense alone.  His defense makes an impact, but not nearly as much as a lot of people want to think because his bat makes such a negative impact.  He goes through long spells where he is about as clueless a hitter there is in the game AND one of the easiest outs you're going to find.  His spot in the lineup comes up four times a game.  in 2017 (his best season and as close to a full season as he has given us) he made 274 plays.  He made a little more than two plays a game.  Just how many of those were routine?  

 

This notion that his glove is worth him being a horrible hitter isn't truthful or factual.  If he can't hit at least .240 and get on base at a rate above .300 then he is a liability.  I don't care if his glove is made of platinum.  

Well, you're kinda right... but mostly wrong, honestly.

 

Okay, so imagine this. You have a player with a .780 OPS. He's a wretched defender at a premium position. The difference between a .780 and .730 OPS is (using rough memory here so forgive any errors) is about 10 doubles and maybe a few singles scattered in. Anyway, roughly 30, maybe 40 bases scattered over a full season. If you're being generous, that's one base every four games in the season.

 

Buxton hasn't been caught stealing since the Nixon administration (so he's literally adding bases to his OPS total). He also steals at least one base (but many of his catches take multiple bases away) with his glove on a regular basis.

 

It's easy to forget that while you can score runs in baseball with big hits, you can also prevent them by taking away said hits. And a glove like Buxton does that almost with clockwork precision.

[ewen21]

 

Well, you're kinda right... but mostly wrong, honestly.

 

 

 

It's easy to forget that while you can score runs in baseball with big hits, you can also prevent them by taking away said hits. And a glove like Buxton does that almost with clockwork precision.

 

The numbers don't agree.  Simply put, he isn't getting enough opportunities to use that talent and counterbalance the weak bat.  There are small zones on the field where Buxton can exhibit his special skills and balls just don't get hit there often enough.  If that happened with regularity and was something as common as his turn in the order coming up then you would have something.  It is not.  Furthermore, hen you have a spot in the lineup where a player provides little hope it makes it so easy on the opposing pitcher and manager.  It's almost a domino effect in some games where the opposing team feels like they are facing the pitcher's spot in the lineup.  He has been that bad outside of his hot almost two months in 2017.  Look at the 800 other at bats besides that hot streak.  That is A LOT of terrible offense.

 

And instead of using hypotheticals look at how many putouts he makes.  I'll use the only year he was able to play everyday.  Even in 2017 where he played out of his mind in the field he managed 24 defensive runs saved according to that metric (if you take that as gospel).  He made 274 plays in 1143 innings in the field.  That is a play every 4.17 innings and a large majority of those plays are routine plays for major league centerfielders.  Another problem with Buxton are the injuries due to his style of play PLUS the migraine issues.  How long can he play with this reckless abandon before the machine tilts?  It is a house of cards, in my opinion,

 

I get it.  You want to be positive and you don't want to give up on the guy.  The hard cold reality is while he is a top shelf fielder that isn't making up for how bad he hits.  It makes up for part of it, but certainly not all of it.  We can quibble about how much exactly but those things are so hard to determine.  In the end, give me a player who can hit the three run homer over a guy who might hurt himself (again) crashing into a wall attempting to rob another of 3 run homer.  The guy with the bat is going to have more opportunities to help his team than a centerfielder who makes two about two putouts a game.

[beckmt]

 

The numbers don't agree.  Simply put, he isn't getting enough opportunities to use that talent and counterbalance the weak bat.  There are small zones on the field where Buxton can exhibit his special skills and balls just don't get hit there often enough.  If that happened with regularity and was something as common as his turn in the order coming up then you would have something.  It is not.  Furthermore, hen you have a spot in the lineup where a player provides little hope it makes it so easy on the opposing pitcher and manager.  It's almost a domino effect in some games where the opposing team feels like they are facing the pitcher's spot in the lineup.  He has been that bad outside of his hot almost two months in 2017.  Look at the 800 other at bats besides that hot streak.  That is A LOT of terrible offense.

 

And instead of using hypotheticals look at how many putouts he makes.  I'll use the only year he was able to play everyday.  Even in 2017 where he played out of his mind in the field he managed 24 defensive runs saved according to that metric (if you take that as gospel).  He made 274 plays in 1143 innings in the field.  That is a play every 4.17 innings and a large majority of those plays are routine plays for major league centerfielders.  Another problem with Buxton are the injuries due to his style of play PLUS the migraine issues.  How long can he play with this reckless abandon before the machine tilts?  It is a house of cards, in my opinion,

 

I get it.  You want to be positive and you don't want to give up on the guy.  The hard cold reality is while he is a top shelf fielder that isn't making up for how bad he hits.  It makes up for part of it, but certainly not all of it.  We can quibble about how much exactly but those things are so hard to determine.  In the end, give me a player who can hit the three run homer over a guy who might hurt himself (again) crashing into a wall attempting to rob another of 3 run homer.  The guy with the bat is going to have more opportunities to help his team than a centerfielder who makes two about two putouts a game.

This is not counting the number of probable doubles Buxton turns into singles and keeps runners from advancing, saving runs. Or the extra outs the pitcher has to get, because your defender does not make a play where others should. 

Your post is almost like defense does not matter, I have seen the simulation run in stratomatic baseball about 30 some years ago.  The number of extra outs and runs this player gave up put his club into the 5+ runs against category every game.  That is unsustainable in baseball (or you win about 60 games). Yes, you can hide bad defense at some positions, but the middle of the diamond will cost you a lot of the time.

Defense is more than the number of hits allowed, it is also how many of those hits are for less bases than your poor defensive player will allow, this keeps double plays in order or at least requires more than one more single to score the runner.  Baseball stats take range into effect, but do not know if they calculate how many bases a batted ball should get and how many hits it takes to score a run with a premium defender at the position.  In the infield, you also have to include balls knocked down preventing other base runners from taking 2 bases instead on 1.  These are big differences and I do not know how much of this is calculated in the runs saved category. 

[Riverbrian]

Defense is huge. The difference between extra outs and outs taken away play huge roles in crooked numbers and crooked numbers play huge roles in wins and losses. 

 

Defense is huge. 

 

However... there are some amazing defensive CF'er's on the beach because they can't hit enough to out play the average defensive CF. 

 

Buxton has to hit. 

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Buxton hasn't been caught stealing since the Nixon administration

Cynthia?

[ewen21]

 

Defense is huge. The difference between extra outs and outs taken away play huge roles in crooked numbers and crooked numbers play huge roles in wins and losses. 

 

Defense is huge. 

 

However... there are some amazing defensive CF'er's on the beach because they can't hit enough to out play the average defensive CF. 

 

Buxton has to hit. 

The hard cold truth is that his glove cannot do enough to counterbalance his horrific offense.  We need to stop pushing his defense to the front of every conversation about him.  Why sugarcoat things?

 

Centerfield is a very important position, but there are only a few small zones on the field where he can showcase his stuff.  That just doesn't happen often enough.  Historically CFs average a bit more than 2 putouts a game.  That is about what Buxton averaged in 2017.  I put the numbers up already.

 

I have gotten a couple of responses from posters who think I don't value defense.  Not true.

More like I understand that one player can only do so much defensively.  Not his fault he isn't going to get enough chances to neutralize his poor bat, that is just how it is