Article: REPORT: Twins Finalizing Deal With Blake Parker

[S.]

 

Answer: Romero.

Honest question, because I don't read a lot of minor league news/stats/etc outside of stuff posted on here, but is there a reason people are so quick to push for Romero to the pen? It isn't like our starting staff is stacked and it still seems like he has the potential to be a solid starter. Am I missing some other info or what is the reason people want to move him to the pen already?

[Riverbrian]

TD has a "Blake" and a "Parker" contributing to this website. I like both of them so I'm sure this signing will be just fine. 

 

 

[Rosterman]

So who goes? Vote for Magill or Duffey, although the Twins could cut ties with Granite.

[Mike Sixel]

I am beginning to wonder if picking up guys that other teams made a strategic decision to let go is more than just chance. Is there some market inefficiency that the Twins are trying to exploit?

Being cheap is always efficient. Not usually effective....

[Thrylos]

This is an interesting writeup from November on what the Angel's pitching coach Scott Radinsky had to say about Blake Parker (and the rest of his pen).  

Scroll down a bit.

[Danchat]

 

So who do we DFA?

Tyler Duffey, and don't think twice about it.

[jorgenswest]

Tyler Duffey, and don't think twice about it.

He wouldn’t be my next to go but sign two more relievers and it might be time. The reasons I will think twice right now...

 

1) He has an option and can be the virtual 13th or 14th pitcher waiting in AAA to be shuttled back and forth.

 

2) His strike out and walk ratios remain solid and stable. Those peripherals lead to an xFIP similar to Parker and Hildenberger and much better than Magill. A reliever’s xFIP is a far better predictor for the future than ERA or FIP.

 

3) He has a good curve ball and I want to see how the new pitching staff can refine and utilize it.

 

He needs a spot on the 40 but not the 25. I would remove Magill and Michael Reed who don’t have options remaining first. I think I would also remove Granite from the 40 before Duffey.

Edited January 8, 2019 by jorgenswest

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Honest question, because I don't read a lot of minor league news/stats/etc outside of stuff posted on here, but is there a reason people are so quick to push for Romero to the pen? It isn't like our starting staff is stacked and it still seems like he has the potential to be a solid starter. Am I missing some other info or what is the reason people want to move him to the pen already?

Sounds like Falvey and Levine want to move him to the pen. Per Strib, 12/11/18

[bird]

1. ??

2. May

3. Rogers

4. Romero

5. Reed (rejuvenated hopefully?)

6. Parker (FB velo down but still within .5 of MLB average FB)

7. ???

 

Assuming they trade for or sign a guy who slots up there with May and Rogers, which of the in-house candidates is an acceptable last man, and which AAA options would be acceptable injury replacements?

 

Moya

Vasquez

Magill

Curtiss

Hildenberger (recovered from over-use?)

Duffey

Kohl Stewart

Jake Reed

A slew of others I can't think of off the top of my head

 

With one more premier addition, I'd be very comfortable that we have pretty much a complete roster of fairly decent call-up options, probably more than most teams.

[DocBauer]

1. ??

2. May

3. Rogers

4. Romero

5. Reed (rejuvenated hopefully?)

6. Parker (FB velo down but still within .5 of MLB average FB)

7. ???

 

Assuming they trade for or sign a guy who slots up there with May and Rogers, which of the in-house candidates is an acceptable last man, and which AAA options would be acceptable injury replacements?

 

Moya

Vasquez

Magill

Curtiss

Hildenberger (recovered from over-use?)

Duffey

Kohl Stewart

Jake Reed

A slew of others I can't think of off the top of my head

 

With one more premier addition, I'd be very comfortable that we have pretty much a complete roster of fairly decent call-up options, probably more than most teams.

I would have to say Moya has a leg...errr...arm up on the competition unless Mejia isn't in the rotation. In that case Mejia to the pen, Moya to Rochester to begin the year. But to further complicate the issue, if Mejia isn't in the rotation, then I'm betting Romero is. Then we open up the discussion yet again.

[DocBauer]

Allen wasn't very good last year, but I'd still be interested. Proven is kind of a subjective word in this case, but of the guys most people would think of as "proven" Familia, Robertson and Soria were the only relievers who I am disappointed we didn't/couldn't get. Those are the big names that as far as I can tell were still productive last year, are still piling up strikeouts and apparently at full health.

 

Not that I don't want other relievers, just that my interest in all the rest vary and may not line up with perceived value. Buy yeah, if Parker is the best we do for the pen this year, I'll be pretty resentful.

I was also really hoping for Familia, Soria or Robertson. Still kinda upset about Robertson in particular after what he signed for. Would have taken any of those three and been pretty darn happy.

 

I'm pretty high on Cody Allen despite a down 2018. He just turned 30 in November. Career ERA of 2.98, (5 straight season's previously of an ERA under 3.00), career AVG of .217, career WHIP of 1.19, 3.26 career K/BB. Six straight season's of 67 or more appearances and IP. And those numbers include a down 2018. I just think he's a perfect fit unless there is some health or sudden velocity concern I am unaware of.

 

Holland has been mentioned, but he's 3 years older than Allen, their career numbers and quite close, but Holland seems to be on a 3 year downward trend except for his late seaskn surge with the Nationals last season.

 

I'm fine with Parker as a piece. Now give me Allen with all of the other pieces on hand and I'm actually pretty optimistic.

[David HK]

I guess I don't mind this pickup- But I'm more interested in who goes from the 40? 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Honest question, because I don't read a lot of minor league news/stats/etc outside of stuff posted on here, but is there a reason people are so quick to push for Romero to the pen? It isn't like our starting staff is stacked and it still seems like he has the potential to be a solid starter. Am I missing some other info or what is the reason people want to move him to the pen already?

Impatience... if you want my honest opinion... that and over value of relievers. I get that RPs are being seen as more important, but you still don't move a starter that is likely going to be much better than average into that role. You move a failed starter into that role. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

1. ??

2. May

3. Rogers

4. Romero

5. Reed (rejuvenated hopefully?)

6. Parker (FB velo down but still within .5 of MLB average FB)

7. ???

 

Assuming they trade for or sign a guy who slots up there with May and Rogers, which of the in-house candidates is an acceptable last man, and which AAA options would be acceptable injury replacements?

 

Moya

Vasquez

Magill

Curtiss

Hildenberger (recovered from over-use?)

Duffey

Kohl Stewart

Jake Reed

A slew of others I can't think of off the top of my head

 

With one more premier addition, I'd be very comfortable that we have pretty much a complete roster of fairly decent call-up options, probably more than most teams.

 

I think you can safely slot one of those names into the 7th spot. I don't think Romero should be on your list either. He's a starter, and probably the first guy called up when the inevitable injury happens. With that in mind, I'd say that Moya gets Romero's spot and Hildy moves into the 7th spot. 

 

Definitely would like one more FA signing for that 1st spot. That would mean we went north with a much better pen in 2019 than 2018. It will be interesting to see who closes.

[071063]

I like this signing.  We have worse guys in our bullpen right now so this is an upgrade.  Can't really argue with that.  And at the price we signed him for, if he doesn't work out, the Twins can cast him off easily.

 

In my eyes, lots of options in the bullpen make sense.  Over the course of a year, you are going to use numerous guys out of the pen.  Guys you expected a lot out of aren't going to perform at the level you expected, other guys are going to come out of no where and pitch better than expected.

 

Options are good and Parker gives them options.  A decent move.

[Dman]

 

Honest question, because I don't read a lot of minor league news/stats/etc outside of stuff posted on here, but is there a reason people are so quick to push for Romero to the pen? It isn't like our starting staff is stacked and it still seems like he has the potential to be a solid starter. Am I missing some other info or what is the reason people want to move him to the pen already?

 

I think it has to do with how he tends to fall cliff as the season progresses.  In AA at around 100 innings he wasn't the same pitcher.  Last year when they brought him up he did well for a few games and then never was the same pitcher the rest of the year even in AAA.  

 

Scouts always had doubts about his arm holding up through an entire season so the idea of moving him to the pen shouldn't be a foreign idea.  In the Tribune article they also mention his lack of a good third pitch.  So I think the wonder boys doubt that is going to "change" much at this point in his career.

 

Is it too early to give up on him as a starter probably but at the same time we need help in the pen and I would rather have him there than in AAA.

[Doctor Wu]

 

So who goes? Vote for Magill or Duffey, although the Twins could cut ties with Granite.

I'm not sure either. But factoring in the fact that we already have several outfielders that can do the AAA shuttle, I'd say that Granite might be the one they DFA.

[sdangus]

I think we are not thinking through what the FO plan is for the bullpen this year. I see several of these guys on the AAA shuttle all year long as they work to find out who can perform in different spots while keeping fresh arms on the roster at all times. It also gives them the option of increasing or decreasing the bench as circumstances warrant. Therefor, the guys that have options remaining will be more important than those that don't. The use of the opener could also make it necessary to move fresh arms up and down throughout the season as the opener pitches in a game and then may be shuttled down to bring up a fresh arm for the bullpen the next day.

[howieramone2]

 

Minnesota Twins: This is How We Sign your Untendered Scraps

If Trevor May was our 12th best asset, Parker is 10th or 11th.

[howieramone2]

 

I was going to say are we sure TR isn't pulling these strings?

More like Calvin Griffith.

Edited January 8, 2019 by howieramone2

[ashbury]

More like Calvin Griffin.

Peter Griffin's long-lost relative?

 

[Jim Hahn]

There has been a lot of talk on this site how the Twins are sitting on piles of money, or at least how could spend at a much higher rate. While I suspect that is likely true, nobody seems to factor in the fact that this FO is spending a lot more money in areas that the previous FO did not.

 

Beyond beefing up the analytics department, they have also beefed up the FO in general. They have added more coaches throughout the minor league system than the previous FO had. They have a couple more major league coaches. Though other adds are more difficult to track, they seem to have added to both the scouting department, the fitness department, and maybe even people who deal with mental health.

 

Some of this was started by the previous FO, but money has been spent on facilities in Fort Myers and the Dominican Republic, Statcast and other tracking toys, as well upgrading the Elizabethan facilities.

 

I expect I may be missing other "upgrades" but the money for these things comes from the same sources even if it doesn't fit under the same category as major league player salaries. Now, I believe income for the Twins is trending up, even if attendance isn't. While I think the various upgrades undertaken the last few years were largely necessary, it is likely that this spending could very well impact, at least to some degree, the money available for free agents.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I am beginning to wonder if picking up guys that other teams made a strategic decision to let go is more than just chance. Is there some market inefficiency that the Twins are trying to exploit?

Not sure if it's really any kind of inefficiency -- maybe more just the market reality. Players in their last 1-2 years of arbitration are generally overpaid via arbitration, particularly at corner positions (Cron) or coming off average or worse seasons (Parker, Schoop). Thus they tend to become available. An older free agent like Cruz faces a similar market effect.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

it is likely that this spending could very well impact, at least to some degree, the money available for free agents.

"Some degree" is probably an incredibly small degree. It's just a reality that MLB player salaries dwarf these other expenditures. Average MLB team payroll is in the range of $130+ million annually. None of the expense items you list could likely equal even 1% of that in a single year.

 

An expense like Elizabethton is a drop in the bucket: $300k upfront, $50k per year for 10 years:

https://www.johnsoncitypress.com/Government/2018/10/09/Elizabethton-City-Council-may-reach-agreement-Thursday-with-the-Minnesota-Twins-on-Joe-O-Brien-stadium-upgrades

 

Coaching staff salaries are maybe $50k per year too? Depending on level?

 

And it seems doubtful that there are significant new Statcast costs in 2019 (Target Field was outfitted during the previous regime).

 

The Twins newest Dominican academy was reported as costing $18 mil, but that was 2 years ago (again, the previous regime) and split between the Twins and Phillies: https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-open-dominican-republic-baseball-academy/c-213683558

 

And it's not as if the average team is investing zero dollars in these things -- they are likely adding new Statcast equipment, new coaches, new facilities too. Even if the Twins are spending above average in these areas now, it's doubtful they are above that average enough to justify any meaningful drop from that $130+ mil average annual player payroll.

[Brandon]

 

There has been a lot of talk on this site how the Twins are sitting on piles of money, or at least how could spend at a much higher rate. While I suspect that is likely true, nobody seems to factor in the fact that this FO is spending a lot more money in areas that the previous FO did not.

Beyond beefing up the analytics department, they have also beefed up the FO in general. They have added more coaches throughout the minor league system than the previous FO had. They have a couple more major league coaches. Though other adds are more difficult to track, they seem to have added to both the scouting department, the fitness department, and maybe even people who deal with mental health.

Some of this was started by the previous FO, but money has been spent on facilities in Fort Myers and the Dominican Republic, Statcast and other tracking toys, as well upgrading the Elizabethan facilities.

I expect I may be missing other "upgrades" but the money for these things comes from the same sources even if it doesn't fit under the same category as major league player salaries. Now, I believe income for the Twins is trending up, even if attendance isn't. While I think the various upgrades undertaken the last few years were largely necessary, it is likely that this spending could very well impact, at least to some degree, the money available for free agents.

 I doubt the Twins have spent much more than 5-6 million in each of the last 2 seasons on upgrading the front office.  Scouts don't make much money.  minor league coaches don't either.  maybe 40-60 k tops.  I bet the front office ads make between 50-200 k on the top end.  The technology could be costly.  But I doubt the Twins have spent more than 5-6 million total which is around 3 million per season.  Even if they did spend more on the technology, Its mostly a 1 time expense so in future seasons it may not affect the payroll as much.

 

The upgrades on the stadiums can be costly depending on what is done.  I know they spent money in Fort Myers, but I don't think they spent in AA.  maybe some in AAA or in the Dominican Republic.  That's what i don't know or am able to estimate.   But that would have to be what is holding spending back.  and if so great because its a 1 time expense.

 

Also our local TV and radio deals are terrible compared to what the rest of the teams are getting.  If only the local TV and radio weren't so greedy, they could give Jim Pohlad more money so he can spend 52% of it on player salaries.  

[mlhouse]

 

Minnesota Twins: This is How We Sign your Untendered Scraps

 

Excellent title for a book.

[Jim Hahn]

You are likely basically right about the impact, but the actual dollar increase in spending from the last FO to this one, is probably much larger than you are suggesting. Do you really think a college coach with at least a 4 year degree, most probably at least a master's is going to sign a contract for $50,000? Most college coaches, even small college coaches, are going to be making considerably more than that.

 

The FO personnel added above previous levels, aren't signing for $50,000 either. The analytics people they signed could likely make a pretty large salary for the right corporation, with bonuses. I doubt that Hunter and Hawkins signed for minimal salaries either.

 

The other question is how many people above previous levels have they hired? 30, maybe as many as 50? Ryan ran a pretty tight ship. Even if this just gets them to what other clubs are spending, it changes considerably what they were spending. I also doubt that most of the upgrades were all paid for in the year they happened.

 

What all these people have added to the payroll? I don't know. It has to be in the millions I would think but I don't really know. I also don't know that even if it is that much, that it should have much of an impact on the budget for major league player salaries. The problem is we really don't know much about any of this,so my guesses are probably way off.

 

By the way, I was responding to spycake but I appreciate mlhouse's input.

Edited January 8, 2019 by Jim Hahn

[caninatl04]

Honest question, because I don't read a lot of minor league news/stats/etc outside of stuff posted on here, but is there a reason people are so quick to push for Romero to the pen? It isn't like our starting staff is stacked and it still seems like he has the potential to be a solid starter. Am I missing some other info or what is the reason people want to move him to the pen already?

Romero in the pen in '19 does not preclude Romero in the rotation in '20 and / or '21.

[BJames]

We are the Champions!!!!  (of non-tenders)

[Otto von Ballpark]

You are likely basically right about the impact, but the actual dollar increase in spending from the last FO to this one, is probably much larger than you are suggesting. Do you really think a college coach with at least a 4 year degree, most probably at least a master's is going to sign a contract for $50,000? Most college coaches, even small college coaches, are going to be making considerably more than that.

 

The FO personnel added above previous levels, aren't signing for $50,000 either. The analytics people they signed could likely make a pretty large salary for the right corporation, with bonuses. I doubt that Hunter and Hawkins signed for minimal salaries either.

 

The other question is how many people above previous levels have they hired? 30, maybe as many as 50? Ryan ran a pretty tight ship. Even if this just gets them to what other clubs are spending, it changes considerably what they were spending. I also doubt that most of the upgrades were all paid for in the year they happened.

 

What all these people have added to the payroll? I don't know. It has to be in the millions I would think but I don't really know. I also don't know that even if it is that much, that it should have much of an impact on the budget for major league player salaries. The problem is we really don't know much about any of this,so my guesses are probably way off.

 

By the way, I was responding to spycake but I appreciate mlhouse's input.

Worth keeping in mind that coaches and analytics folks are generally taking significantly less money to work in pro baseball than they could make in another field. Not unlike how most minor league players work for less than they could get elsewhere too, just on a different scale. MLB teams don't have to offer these guys the same pay and benefits that they could make elsewhere -- they are a prestige entertainment industry.

 

Also, these additional salaries could collectively get "into the millions" like you guess ($1-2-3 million), and that still wouldn't make a meaningful dent relative to a $130 mil MLB player payroll. They certainly aren't spending $10-20-30 million annually on coaches and analytics people, which is generally the amounts that most critics fear they will be below average on MLB payroll. (Mind you, I am not arguing that here myself, just discussing what I think are realistic estimates for other expenses.)

 

I also think you are perhaps shorting the previous front office. Yes, we know they didn't invest much in analytics, but that was much more of a philosophical resistance than a financial one. And by 2007-2008 they started making notable capital investments in Latin America, Ft. Myers, then Target Field, etc., including that new Dominican academy. The chief financial criticism of the old front office was pretty much the same as the one being leveled against the new one: that they are too low/conservative on MLB payroll.

 

Frankly, if the new front office is using other expenses as a justification for where they set the MLB payroll, they are probably more like the old front office in that area than they are different.