Will the Twins sign outside help for the bullpen?

[Vanimal46]

5 weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Ft. Myers. The clock is ticking... Falvine should learn from their mistake last year waiting too long into spring training to sign players.

[bird]

Yeah, I agree that it's getting worrisome as the FA pickings dwindle to Ottavino, Allen, and may a couple of others who fit in the May/Rogers tier. They don't need lesser talents. Plenty in decent in-house options for the last three slots in the pen.

 

I wonder if they haven't been engaged in some trade discussions. There are probably a dozen or so high leverage types who are dispensable for the right price among non-contending teams.

 

But I'm with you in hoping they're not trying to be clever about it, waiting for someone to drop the demand to one year or something.

[Vanimal46]

I'd say Ottavino, Herrera, and maybe Allen are the few left that would be viewed as an upgrade over Rogers/May. At the start of the Offseason I felt like a dozen people were upgrades.

 

Tick tock, Falvine.

[zenser]

Along with the names mentioned above, I wouldn't mind a look at Justin Wilson.

[Thrylos]

 

I'd say Ottavino, Herrera, and maybe Allen are the few left that would be viewed as an upgrade over Rogers/May. At the start of the Offseason I felt like a dozen people were upgrades.

Tick tock, Falvine.

 

In addition to Ottavino who can slide really nice at the back end of the pen, there are several upgrades over the likes of Hildenberger (worst WPA in the majors in 2018), Duffey, and Magill on the second tier of free agents.  Bud Norris, Brad Brach, Justin Wilson, Jake Diekman, Tony Sipp etc are a few names.  Are they closer material?  No.  But I'd take any 3 ahead of the 3 Twins mentioned...

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

In addition to Ottavino who can slide really nice at the back end of the pen, there are several upgrades over the likes of Hildenberger (worst WPA in the majors in 2018), Duffey, and Magill on the second tier of free agents.  Bud Norris, Brad Brach, Justin Wilson, Jake Diekman, Tony Sipp etc are a few names.  Are they closer material?  No.  But I'd take any 3 ahead of the 3 Twins mentioned...

 

I know you're bearish on Hildy, but it's quite possible that Hildy is a substantial upgrade over himself in 2019... He's young enough, and part of his problem last year was Molitor riding him pretty hard when he was hot. 

 

Now that said, I do think we should be going out and getting at least one more name that slots into the back nicely. Ottavino would be a pretty good get. I agree with Vanimal, we should be getting someone to help in the pen. 

[nicksaviking]

I don't want Ottavino, a one-year-wonder at the age of 33 is odd but I'm more concerned with his much too high walk rates. If he's taking a one or two year deal I'd be fine with him, but he looks more likely to bust to me so three years is a flat no. If this team is going to grab some relievers with high walk rates, I'd rather it be guys who have a better track record and/or are more likely to take 1-2 year deals like Cody Allen, Brad Brach, David Phelps, Bud Norris or Justin Wilson. 

 

I'd take Herrera also but his low K rate is a bit puzzling considering his velocity, he doesn't throw a sinker, why are so many of his 98 MPH heaters getting put in play? I'd also like to grab a bounce back candidate like Brad Boxberger or Ryan Madson. Though I'd hate it if they ONLY grabed Brad Boxberger or Ryan Madson. Tyler Clippard is also a guy who tends to get forgotten but nearly every year is reliable and misses bats.

 

Another guy who I've always been interested in and who always comes so close to putting it together but comes up short is Daniel Hudson. I'd like to have him when he finally hits that late career groove which I always assume is right around the corner.

[nicksaviking]

Or I guess Blake Parker as well:

 

 

He was a name I was interested in when he was unexpectedly released. I would be concerned that the Angels know something the rest of the world doesn't, it's not like they're known as a penny-pinching franchise.

 

Still, not a bad arm, hopefully they can get that velocity back, though upon further review, the 2017 velocity looks like it might be the outlier. 92-93 looks like his career norm except for the 2017 spike.

[Danchat]

Or I guess Blake Parker as well:

 

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1082344478189461506

 

He was a name I was interested in when he was unexpectedly released. I would be concerned that the Angels know something the rest of the world doesn't, and his velocity drop doesn't excite me, sounds like an Addison Reed style red flag.

 

Still, not a bad arm, hopefully they can get that velocity back, though the 2017 velocity looks like it might be the outlier.

Nice, Parker was one of the non tendered guys I wanted the Twins to pick up. I still hope they add a closer or at least a very good high leverage option, but adding Parker helps the depth.

[Vanimal46]

Sounds like the Twins are replacing Matt Magill with an older version of Matt Magill.

 

Change my mind.

[TheLeviathan]

There are still a lot of guys out there, but the feet dragging is annoying.

[Thrylos]

 

I know you're bearish on Hildy, but it's quite possible that Hildy is a substantial upgrade over himself in 2019... He's young enough, and part of his problem last year was Molitor riding him pretty hard when he was hot. 

 

Hildy is between months to a year younger than Ozorizzi, Magill, and May.  He is 28 now.

 

I don't see anyone giving the same slack to Magill  

 

About the riding him hard part.  Here are his splits:

 

Days of rest/ERA:

 

0/6.28
1/8.03
2/4.05
3/1.86

 

So he was abominable with no rest or one day's rest, bad with 2 days rest and great with 3 days rest.   You just cannot afford to have pitchers in the pen that are effective if you used them every fourth day.

 

I don't get the Hildy love...

[jkcarew]

 

Sounds like the Twins are replacing Matt Magill with an older version of Matt Magill.

Change my mind.

After being released, Parker only lingered on the market without any other club seeing fit to add him to their roster for 37 days. Last year, Magill had been out there for 80 days. In Twins terms, this makes Parker a big signing.

[Vanimal46]

Hildy is between months to a year younger than Ozorizzi, Magill, and May. He is 28 now.

 

I don't see anyone giving the same slack to Magill

 

About the riding him hard part. Here are his splits:

 

Days of rest/ERA:

 

0/6.28

1/8.03

2/4.05

3/1.86

 

So he was abominable with no rest or one day's rest, bad with 2 days rest and great with 3 days rest. You just cannot afford to have pitchers in the pen that are effective if you used them every fourth day.

 

I don't get the Hildy love...

It's mostly because he did well when he was first called up. Pitchers tend to get a lot of leash when they are called up and succeed right away. If they don't, it's hard to get a real chance again. See Curtiss, John as an example.

[Rigby]

Herrera to White Sox.

[nicksaviking]

 

Sounds like the Twins are replacing Matt Magill with an older version of Matt Magill.

Change my mind.

 

Matt Magill had pitched all of 32 innings at the MLB level, and only 4 since 2013. Parker has two full seasons of above average to very good baseball the past two years.

 

There are a lot of good but not flashy-named relievers available this off season. In fact, many of the flashy-named guys look much more dubious than the under-the-radar names. Ottavino? Do you know where the strike zone is? Pass. Britton? Even harder pass. Kelvin Herrera, why can't you miss bats any more? Cody Allen, Andrew Miller and Joe Kelly? What the hell happened last year, are you done? Craig Kimbrel, I know, I know, but same question.

[Vanimal46]

Herrera to White Sox.

Oh boy. One less arm on the market.

[Mike Sixel]

Velocity dropped. Lots of luck in his results.... Not exactly what some here hoped for.... But, hey, they have tons of money to work with!

[nicksaviking]

 

Velocity dropped. Lots of luck in his results.... Not exactly what some here hoped for.... But, hey, they have tons of money to work with!

 

That was my initial concern, but his velocity actually just spiked in 2017. In 2018 it was back to his career norms if not slightly higher than his years prior to 2017.

 

I want more relievers and I know I'm on an island, but I think there's a lot of name-value inflation with this free agent relief class. I think there are equal if not better arms that aren't currently being recognized as widely. I'll take Brad Brach, David Phelps and Tyler Clippard over most of the more heralded names, though I know most of the board wouldn't be happy with those types of signings.  

[jorgenswest]

They need 5 guys they can count on and two more at the back end with options.

 

Is Parker one of those top 5? His steamer projection puts him around an ERA of 4 and just slightly better than Hildenberger and Duffey.

 

I know the ERA and some splits look so much better but they are of little value in predicting future performance for a reliever. ERA needs a massive sample size and a reliever will never approach it in a full season. Ignore it for future performance. WPA has little correlation year to year so that is of little value also.

 

I am not confident that Parker is a true upgrade or significantly different from back end guys like Duffey and Hildenberger who still have the flexibility of an option.

[Twodogs]

What's the story with Holland? Is he done?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

What's the story with Holland? Is he done?

 

This would be a great move in my opinion. I don't think he's done. He'll be 33 this season. He was lights out once the Nationals signed him. I kind of wonder if the Cardinals just weren't a fit. I don't know how the Nats used him... but bottom line, I think he's got something in the tank.

 

 

[howieramone2]

 

5 weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Ft. Myers. The clock is ticking... Falvine should learn from their mistake last year waiting too long into spring training to sign players.

That wasn't a mistake, that was the market. There have been fundamental changes in free agency the past 2 off-seasons.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Per Hayes Twins are in on Kimbrel

 

https://theathletic.com/789410/2019/01/28/craig-kimbrel-twins-free-agent-market-thad-levine-red-sox/

 

Sounds like Falvine are trying to sign Kimbrel to a short 1-2 year contract with a high AAV maybe 20 mil per season (I don’t have subscription to Athletic, read a synopsis from an aggregator)

[Vanimal46]

Per Hayes Twins are in on Kimbrel

 

https://theathletic.com/789410/2019/01/28/craig-kimbrel-twins-free-agent-market-thad-levine-red-sox/

 

Sounds like Falvine are trying to sign Kimbrel to a short 1-2 year contract with a high AAV maybe 20 mil per season (I don’t have subscription to Athletic, read a synopsis from an aggregator)

I think we need to define the word 'trying'. Hayes mentioned on Twitter there's a very little chance of this happening. Gotta generate clicks somehow with this team.

[Danchat]

With recent reports that the Twins like Mejia and Romero in the bullpen, then I guess it figures they weren't going to bring in much outside help for the bullpen. I like adding Blake Parker, but I don't like him as the only addition. 

 

Current bullpen:
High Leverage: Rogers, May, Parker

Middle Innings: Hildenberger, Reed, Moya
Primary/Long Relief: Mejia, Romero  

 

They really need one more high leverage guy.

[Mike Sixel]

 

With recent reports that the Twins like Mejia and Romero in the bullpen, then I guess it figures they weren't going to bring in much outside help for the bullpen. I like adding Blake Parker, but I don't like him as the only addition. 

 

Current bullpen:
High Leverage: Rogers, May, Parker

Middle Innings: Hildenberger, Reed, Moya
Primary/Long Relief: Mejia, Romero  

 

They really need one more high leverage guy.

 

I think Romero is that high leverage guy. He'd be wasted as a long reliever (unless they stack them).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Here's an excerpt from the Hayes "Twins in on Kimbrel" article:

 

But the Twins are likely lying in wait as they did last winter when they signed Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn to late deals. Though both struggled, but few would argue the Twins could have done much better than they did to sign the pair when they did and at those prices.

 

Don't know if I'm supposed to believe anything in that paragraph, or just the first six words of it!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Here's an excerpt from the Hayes "Twins in on Kimbrel" article:

But the Twins are likely lying in wait as they did last winter when they signed Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn to late deals. Though both struggled, but few would argue the Twins could have done much better than they did to sign the pair when they did and at those prices.

Don't know if I'm supposed to believe anything in that paragraph, or just the first six words of it!

 

Now the Athletic writers are carrying water for the frugality! I won't be renewing.....

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Hayes makes an important point: if the Twins are hoping Kimbrel will accept fewer years and a higher AAV, that only really means that more teams will be in on him. So it's a "heads I win, tails you lose" situation. But I really think these remaining high profile free agents will be taking fewer years, if they decide to sign at all.

 

As for Romero, I think he could be a Josh Hader type of guy who pitches up to multiple innings at a time, a few back-to-backs but generally every second or third day. With hopefully just as much success. If the FO goes that route, I can get behind that.