Article: How the Twins Reshaped Their Identity in a Half-Decade

[Nick Nelson]

 

Mike:

 

I was thinking something similar.  Yes - the pitching is certainly better than 2013, but how much of the increased K/9 and swing/miss rates can be contributed to the hitters approach in general across the league.  Yes - the Twins pitchers are striking out more batters, etc., but so are most other pitchers.  

Even a league-average swing-and-miss staff would represent huge progress compared to where the Twins were a few short years ago. Also, the aggregate MLB numbers I listed before included relievers as well -- if you take them out of the equation, starters combined for a 10.2% whiff rate last year. All five 2019 Twins starters could easily be above that. And the bullpen has its share of strong whiff rates too (May 15.4%, Hildy 13%, Rogers 11.4%, etc) 

[Loosey]

 

He and his agent would be silly to say no if the money is right. Buxton is 4 years away from free agency. Regardless of his feelings toward the team, he's here for a while. And given his history of injuries, financial security is important to him. 

My feelings towards him accepting an offer are mixed.  On the one had it could make sense for both sides, he gets financial security, the Twins hedge against him blowing up and being a $200M+ contract star.

 

On the other hand, him accepting one, could signal that he doesn't believe in himself the way he publicly says he does and may never develop into the long-term piece everyone wants him to be.

 

Or it could be somewhere in between. . . .  

[Nick Nelson]

 

On the other hand, him accepting one, could signal that he doesn't believe in himself the way he publicly says he does and may never develop into the long-term piece everyone wants him to be.

The thing to keep in mind is how young Buxton still is. He can sign an extension that buys out two years of free agency and still hit the open market at age 30. 

[joefish]

Defense please.

[ewen21]

 

I feel we should be locking up (if we can) both Berrios and Rosario, with the next name up Kepler if he breaks out a bit.  Longer term Buxton and maybe Sano, but will have to see how 2018 goes as right now I'm sure both their agents feel like this would be selling low.

I can't even think about extending Kepler, Buxton or Sano.  All three were terribly disappointing last year and they better shape up.

[ewen21]

 

The thing to keep in mind is how young Buxton still is. He can sign an extension that buys out two years of free agency and still hit the open market at age 30. 

WHY WHY WHY do we commit six years to this guy now?  It sets a very odd precedent.

 

You don't have to play well.  All you need to be is a highly touted prospect and we will give you 10 years to mature in a judgment free environment.

 

It sends the wrong message to every player coming through the Twins system, in my opinion.  

[Nick Nelson]

 

WHY WHY WHY do we commit six years to this guy now?  It sets a very odd precedent.

 

You don't have to play well.  All you need to be is a highly touted prospect and we will give you 10 years to mature in a judgment free environment.

 

It sends the wrong message to every player coming through the Twins system, in my opinion.  

Buxton pushed himself back on the field to try and help the team, to his own detriment. I'd think that's the commitment of thing you want to reward. I guarantee you there's not a single person in the Twins system who doubts Buxton's skill, ability or effort. 

 

The message sent by keeping Buxton off the September roster to preserve his service time is far more harmful, frankly. 

[ewen21]

 

Buxton pushed himself back on the field to try and help the team, to his own detriment. I'd think that's the commitment of thing you want to reward. I guarantee you there's not a single person in the Twins system who doubts Buxton's skill, ability or effort. 

 

The message sent by keeping Buxton off the September roster to preserve his service time is far more harmful, frankly. 

His skill, effort and ability combined has made him into only a mediocre major league hitter (at best).  I do not see where the service time snafu needs to be harmful to his development.   These are the games organizations play and this kind of thing isn't unique to him.  The kid was signed to a $6 bonus (pretty generous if you ask me).  Looks like the Twins showed him quite the commitment there.  It is up to him where he goes from here and we are betting on crossed fingers (and little else) if we extend him this off season.  Given his propensity for injuries, the migraines and long stretches of pathetic at bats how is it even considered at this juncture?

 

This isn't a case of me being "negative".  It is pretty non-controversial, factual stuff.

 

Funny though......and this might be controversial:

When you talk about his work ethic and effort is this not the kind of assumption we are trying to get away from?  I am starting to wonder about the work ethic.  Does he focus on the things he REALLY needs to work on?  Do you know for sure?

I wonder about the ability and effort together not being enough to make him into a serviceable offensive player.

Edited January 8, 2019 by ewen21

[Mike Sixel]

Given how they are picking up guys that were DFA by their previous team, and all but one is a bargain ... It looks like the same identity to me.

[ewen21]

 

Given how they are picking up guys that were DFA by their previous team, and all but one is a bargain ... It looks like the same identity to me.

That is very easy to say, but it doesn't feel the same to me..  Clete Thomas and Jamey Carroll aren't Jonathan Schoop and CJ Cron.  Terry Ryan seemed to never have a nose for these kinds of players.  Still young guys who might cost a little, but have something to prove and some success under their belts.  Ryan signed the absolute dregs

[howieramone2]

 

Buxton pushed himself back on the field to try and help the team, to his own detriment. I'd think that's the commitment of thing you want to reward. I guarantee you there's not a single person in the Twins system who doubts Buxton's skill, ability or effort. 

 

The message sent by keeping Buxton off the September roster to preserve his service time is far more harmful, frankly. 

Every team in baseball would have done the same thing. Every single one. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The Twins now pack much more firepower on the offensive side, too. As mentioned, the 2013 team – a mixture of light-hitting profiles and fading former sluggers – had zero players reach 20 homers. The projected 2019 Twins lineup has six players projected to hit 20+ (per FanGraphs). If Miguel Sano gets healthy and rebounds, you've got two of baseball's hardest-hitting players potentially coming at you back-to-back:

Through the additions of Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron (not to mention Jake Cave, Tyler Austin, Logan Morrison and others) the Twins have clearly emphasized building a threatening lineup full of aggressive, ferocious swingers. If it means sacrificing some OBP and defense, so be it. It's a bold gambit, but at least it's an assertive one.

FWIW, while the 2013 Twins were fairly punchless, they were still aggressive swingers, ranking 2nd worst in MLB with a 23.0% K rate.

 

And actually, the Twins haven't necessarily achieved much more punch *yet* than their 2013 compatriots. The 2018 squad ranked 21st in MLB in isolated power for non-pitchers. The 2013 Twins ranked 20th in that measure. Hopefully Cruz (and Cron, and Schoop) can improve that significantly in 2019.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Every team in baseball would have done the same thing. Every single one. 

Obviously there's no way to prove either hypothetical, but I suspect that quite a few other organizations would have approached things differently before Sep. 1st and at least avoided the acrimony, even if the end result was similar (extra year of service gained). Not rushing him back in May, shutting him down on August 1st, etc.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He and his agent would be silly to say no if the money is right. Buxton is 4 years away from free agency. Regardless of his feelings toward the team, he's here for a while. And given his history of injuries, financial security is important to him. 

Practically speaking, there's just no way for the money to be "right" this offseason. To make sense from the Twins side, it would have to reflect a lot of uncertainly given Buxton's extremely poor recent performance and health. But to make any sense from Buxton's side, it would have to ignore a lot of that.

 

Note this isn't a commentary about the Twins, or Buxton, or any animosity between them -- it's just a practical reading of circumstances. Teams and players virtually never agree to extensions after a bad/injured seasons, especially not on the level of Buxton's 2018 -- there's just no middle ground or overlap with their competing interests right now.

 

Fortunately, with 4 years control through 2022, it's nothing that can't be reversed by reasonable health/performance in 2019.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Practically speaking, there's just no way for the money to be "right" this offseason. To make sense from the Twins side, it would have to reflect a lot of uncertainly given Buxton's extremely poor recent performance and health. But to make any sense from Buxton's side, it would have to ignore a lot of that.

 

Note this isn't a commentary about the Twins, or Buxton, or any animosity between them -- it's just a practical reading of circumstances. Teams and players virtually never agree to extensions after a bad/injured seasons, especially not on the level of Buxton's 2018 -- there's just no middle ground or overlap with their competing interests right now.

 

Fortunately, with 4 years control through 2022, it's nothing that can't be reversed by reasonable health/performance in 2019.

 

This is really well said.  It just doesn't make sense for either side to consider this option right now.   Hell, given the acrimony, I hope nobody is even trying.  The odds of it cementing hard feelings far outweigh the odds of an agreement.

[ashbury]

Practically speaking, there's just no way for the money to be "right" this offseason. To make sense from the Twins side, it would have to reflect a lot of uncertainly given Buxton's extremely poor recent performance and health. But to make any sense from Buxton's side, it would have to ignore a lot of that.

 

Note this isn't a commentary about the Twins, or Buxton, or any animosity between them -- it's just a practical reading of circumstances. Teams and players virtually never agree to extensions after a bad/injured seasons, especially not on the level of Buxton's 2018 -- there's just no middle ground or overlap with their competing interests right now.

 

Fortunately, with 4 years control through 2022, it's nothing that can't be reversed by reasonable health/performance in 2019.

At this moment, I believe the chance is low of Buxton filing an official grievance regarding the lack of September call-up. But... would the formal offer of a long-term extension give him ammunition for one? "Hey, apparently I wasn't good enough in their eyes last September, now four months later they want me on a multi-year contract? What changed during the off-season?"

 

I'm no lawyer but my instinct would be to tread carefully if I were in the Twins front office.

[Nick Nelson]

 

At this moment, I believe the chance is low of Buxton filing an official grievance regarding the lack of September call-up. But... would the formal offer of a long-term extension give him ammunition for one? "Hey, apparently I wasn't good enough in their eyes last September, now four months later they want me on a multi-year contract? What changed during the off-season?"

 

I'm no lawyer but my instinct would be to tread carefully if I were in the Twins front office.

I don't see it. By that same token you could use this quote from Derek Falvey -- “He’s our starting center fielder. That’s who Byron Buxton is. That’s clear to us moving forward." -- in the same way. The team claimed they kept Buxton down in the interest of his long-term health/development, and whether you buy it or not, it's not affected by anything they do now.

 

I understand the skepticism about a contract extension at this point in time, but I personally think the risk is worthwhile for the Twins, and I have a hard time seeing how them saying, "We still believe in you, we're ready to make a $50 million commitment and prove that, otherwise we'll be happy to revisit the topic in a year," would somehow be taken as an insult by Buxton and his agent.  

[Riverbrian]

I don't see it. By that same token you could use this quote from Derek Falvey -- “He’s our starting center fielder. That’s who Byron Buxton is. That’s clear to us moving forward." -- in the same way. The team claimed they kept Buxton down in the interest of his long-term health/development, and whether you buy it or not, it's not affected by anything they do now.

 

I understand the skepticism about a contract extension at this point in time, but I personally think the risk is worthwhile for the Twins, and I have a hard time seeing how them saying, "We still believe in you, we're ready to make a $50 million commitment and prove that, otherwise we'll be happy to revisit the topic in a year," would somehow be taken as an insult by Buxton and his agent.

It was a mistake to make that stupid statement.

 

If it was me. I’d say “Byron, I’ll give you a roster spot. The rest is up to you”. I’ve got playing time here and a minor league option over here. I’m prepared for both.

 

I’ve been on record of saying “I wanted the year back”. But how can you go from sent home in September to named the starting CF before the snow flies.

 

If the Twins feel they gotta make it up to him now by naming him a starter. It goes from understandable to a bad decision.

[ewen21]

With regard to the Twins rushing Buxton back I would say read his article from last March by Beradino.  It was all about how he took pride in playing through pain.  How he was raised right.  How there were no excuses, etc...etc.....etc

https://www.twincities.com/2018/03/28/twins-star-byron-buxton-takes-pride-in-his-ability-to-play-through-pain/

 

This is HIS STANDARD and he was proud to talk all about it in March.  Then April happened and he hit like garbage out of the gate again.  Then the migraines kicked in.  Then he got sent down and he hurt his toe.  Not sure how the Twins are too blame for that.  And with the toe it was not a full fracture and he wanted to get back on the field.  He said so himself in another article:

Once Buxton can tolerate the pain, he's expected to go on a rehab assignment because he's been out for so long. He remained in good spirits before Saturday's game against the Reds, and he's hopeful he could return sooner than later.
"I'm gonna always try to play with it," Buxton said. "But probably gonna let it sit the next couple days. Let the symptoms go down a little bit and see what I can tolerate."

https://www.mlb.com/news/byron-buxton-has-fracture-in-left-big-toe/c-274261230

 

Buxton has a lot to fix. I cannot see how or why extending would make any sense to either party,  That is about all I want to say about it.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 

 

I understand the skepticism about a contract extension at this point in time, but I personally think the risk is worthwhile for the Twins, and I have a hard time seeing how them saying, "We still believe in you, we're ready to make a $50 million commitment and prove that, otherwise we'll be happy to revisit the topic in a year," would somehow be taken as an insult by Buxton and his agent.  

 

Maybe 50M isn't large enough to avoid being thought of as an insult.  It's dangerous water to swim in.  With so little chance of finding the sweet spot, I really hope the team is just avoiding that conversation altogether.

 

Talk to him about coming in and kicking some serious ass this year.  Talk to him about believing in him about planning on him manning CF.  But leave the extension talks, too much baggage.

Edited January 8, 2019 by TheLeviathan

[Otto von Ballpark]

I understand the skepticism about a contract extension at this point in time, but I personally think the risk is worthwhile for the Twins, and I have a hard time seeing how them saying, "We still believe in you, we're ready to make a $50 million commitment and prove that, otherwise we'll be happy to revisit the topic in a year," would somehow be taken as an insult by Buxton and his agent.

I think you suggested 6 years, $80 mil as a possibility for an extension last winter:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/the-time-for-a-buxton-extension-is-now-r6327

 

Using that as a guide for illustration purposes, I don't know which side was more responsible for the lack of a deal last winter, but if the Twins were the ones more resistant of 6/80 coming off 2017, that suggests they pegged his value closer to 6/50 then. And they'd be pretty nuts to offer 6/50 again coming off 2018, no?

 

On the flip side, if Buxton balked at 6/80 last winter, I'm not sure it makes sense for him to accept 6/50 now either, under the present circumstances. He'd be giving up serious value, in part tied to the Twins service time decision.

 

And yes, it could be a bit insulting for the Twins to revisit those negotiations immediately after the service time move. No matter how much you say you still believe in him, unless you are meeting his demands from last winter, the subtext of such an approach will be "Hey, I know you found our offer to be too low last winter, but how do you like it now that we have more leverage?" (Mind you, I don't think the Twins are doing that, but it illustrates why any extension just isn't feasible at the moment. The reverse could be just as insulting -- Buxton reopening talks now could be like circling back to a prom date you previously declined, after exhausting all other possibilities.)

Edited January 8, 2019 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't see it. By that same token you could use this quote from Derek Falvey -- “He’s our starting center fielder. That’s who Byron Buxton is. That’s clear to us moving forward." -- in the same way. The team claimed they kept Buxton down in the interest of his long-term health/development, and whether you buy it or not, it's not affected by anything they do now.

 

To add to what Levi said, "he's our starter" is pretty standard issue "we believe in you" rah-rah type stuff. Nothing wrong with that talk by itself -- but if it could be perceived that you are using it in an attempt to coerce him into signing a contract, like your example, then I think it crosses a line right now. I think the Twins will have to settle for simply avoiding a grievance, and hopefully avoiding an acrimonious arbitration hearing, with Buxton this winter.

 

Edit to add: the Twins could make him a good 1 year offer in arbitration to help smooth the relationship, without bringing up the subject of an extension.

Edited January 8, 2019 by spycake

[ewen21]

 

He and his agent would be silly to say no if the money is right. Buxton is 4 years away from free agency. Regardless of his feelings toward the team, he's here for a while. And given his history of injuries, financial security is important to him. 

I agree and furthermore...

 

Why are we itching to extend Buxton?  Is it because of his potential?  How long do we talk about potential while this guy keeps landing on the disabled list?  In five seasons he has thus far played over 100 games once.  Like you say, he has 4 more years to go until free agency so we have plenty of time.  

 

Quite frankly, I would have dealt him and Lewis for Noah Syndergaard if the Mets would have done it.  I am afraid we are going to see a lot of what we are seeing now with Buxton.  Over time, if he doesn't tweak his defensive approach to be more discerning and responsible, this will only get worse.

 

This is not me being negative.  It is a realistic forecast.  No less realistic than the "positive" forecasts people feel must be made. I wouldn't bet on him long term.  It is tough to say that but I cannot ignore the red flags

Edited September 2, 2019 by ewen21

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

Given how they are picking up guys that were DFA by their previous team, and all but one is a bargain ... It looks like the same identity to me.

Good call

[nicksaviking]

*Moderator Note*

 

Please don’t dig up old threads to play revisionist history or ‘See I told you so’. I’ve hidden some posts, not all were out of bounds, but all were tangentially on a path not needed to be revisited here.

[jokin]

 

Practically speaking, there's just no way for the money to be "right" this offseason. To make sense from the Twins side, it would have to reflect a lot of uncertainly given Buxton's extremely poor recent performance and health. But to make any sense from Buxton's side, it would have to ignore a lot of that.

 

Note this isn't a commentary about the Twins, or Buxton, or any animosity between them -- it's just a practical reading of circumstances. Teams and players virtually never agree to extensions after a bad/injured seasons, especially not on the level of Buxton's 2018 -- there's just no middle ground or overlap with their competing interests right now.

 

Fortunately, with 4 years control through 2022, it's nothing that can't be reversed by reasonable health/performance in 2019.

 

To add to what Levi said, "he's our starter" is pretty standard issue "we believe in you" rah-rah type stuff. Nothing wrong with that talk by itself -- but if it could be perceived that you are using it in an attempt to coerce him into signing a contract, like your example, then I think it crosses a line right now. I think the Twins will have to settle for simply avoiding a grievance, and hopefully avoiding an acrimonious arbitration hearing, with Buxton this winter.

Edit to add: the Twins could make him a good 1 year offer in arbitration to help smooth the relationship, without bringing up the subject of an extension.

 

I still think my idea of using the Experimental Psychology Skinnerian approach to help "send a message" to Buxton and his agent on the right way towards a succe$$ful career... (operant conditioning, the subject individual makes an association between a particular behavior and a consequence). Hear me out, to reiterate, a arb-buyout-+-3-more-year contract at much higher base rate- at Twins' option- with the current base somewhere just near or below what is commensurate with his projected arb value.... PLUS huge incentive-laden, health related upgrades:

 

$.5M bonuses applied at 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150 games played. And the sweetener to seal the deal and lock Buck up to age 31 (2025)? an additonal $5M bonus if he appears in all 162 games.

 

Buck made $1.75M this year. I don't know what his projected arb # is for 2020. Certainly offering achievable incentives that offer significantly greater rewards for the next 3 arb years has to be enticing to Buck and his agent. In exchange, he gives the Twins potential control with his age 31 year (2025), with a base increase in the 3 out years, besides.

 

I would think the potential $8M in bonuses, plus say, other potential bonuses for Golden Gloves, MVP votes, etc., would be plenty motivational for Buxton  to re-evaluate his devil-may-care approach in CF.

 

The thing that convinces me that this is the way to go? When I heard that the Twins were something like 56-22 in games that he has started this year.

 

Perhaps, the above-proposed contract would "operantly condition" Buxton and resultantly mean less shoulder-separating collisions with inanimate barriers as well as headlong face-planting concussion-causing dirt dives when the worst outcome is only a harmless single falling in front of him.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 2, 2019 by jokin