Article: The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2019: Part 4 (1-5)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

3)Rogers- elite

...
7)Polanco

...
12)Kepler

...

I looked at it almost like future WAR, for Twins, on current contract.

 

I know Rogers had 2.2 bWAR / 1.9 fWAR last year, and he has 4 years of control, but even if you think he is very good, that level of output is pretty unsustainable for relievers over the long run. Only 3 relievers averaged 2 fWAR per season over the last 4 years: Jansen, Chapman, and Betances -- and they all required peak seasons of nearly 3+ WAR to do it (they also all have career K/9 rates of 13.5 or higher, vs. Rogers peak of 9.9 so far).

 

By comparison, Polanco posted 1.5 bWAR / 1.3 fWAR in just half a season last year, and has the same 4 years of club control. Kepler also has 4 years of control, and posted 2.8 bWAR / 2.6 fWAR last year, and has averaged 2.3 bWAR / 1.7 fWAR the last 3 years too.

 

Even pedestrian careers from Polanco and Kepler could easily best the WAR of an elite Rogers.

[ahart10]

I know Rogers had 2.2 bWAR / 1.9 fWAR last year, and he has 4 years of control, but even if you think he is very good, that level of output is pretty unsustainable for relievers over the long run. Only 3 relievers averaged 2 fWAR per season over the last 4 years: Jansen, Chapman, and Betances -- and they all required peak seasons of nearly 3+ WAR to do it (they also all have career K/9 rates of 13.5 or higher, vs. Rogers peak of 9.9 so far).

 

By comparison, Polanco posted 1.5 bWAR / 1.3 fWAR in just half a season last year, and has the same 4 years of club control. Kepler also has 4 years of control, and posted 2.8 bWAR / 2.6 fWAR last year, and has averaged 2.3 bWAR / 1.7 fWAR the last 3 years too.

 

Even pedestrian careers from Polanco and Kepler could easily best the WAR of an elite Rogers.

I know Rogers is an outlier in the WAR part of the equation. Having an elite player anywhere on the roster holds more value to me than an average player. I know it’s a SSS, but he looks really good and is as good a bet as any to outperform his position more so than a Polanco or Kepler.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Fair enough points about Rooker / Larnach.

 

Cron was free though. So you wouldn't really be willing to trade either Rooker or Larnach for him; which in my mind makes them better "assets."

 

Here's the realization that helped me:  Nick has baked a lot of his personal projections for the 2019 season into these rankings.  I'm not saying that's right or wrong, it's just important not to try and view this as a snapshot of the present. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Regarding Larnach and Rooker...

the presence of both (and the similar functional profiles) makes each less vital at the moment... if that makes sense. Should Rooker fail to pan out, they have Larnach for essentially the same role, on a similar timeline. And vice versa.

 

This doesn't make sense to me. Wouldn't the same argument knock (for example) Graterol and Romero down in the rankings...or Rosario and Kepler for that matter. Larnach and Rooker don't even hit from the same side of the plate; Rooker more power and Larnach better contact...even their defensive profiles are not an exact match at this point.

Pitchers who can throw in the high 90s, miss bats, and potentially stick as starters are always going to be in high demand. You can never have too many. Rosario and Kepler are both very good defensive outfielders – also a generally valuable profile.

 

It's not clear to me that Larnach or Rooker are going to have much of any defensive value, which means they basically HAVE to hit to be valuable. Both show a lot of promise in that department but we just need to see more. When you start your career toward the bottom of the defensive spectrum there's a lot less margin for coming up short of offensive expectations/potential.

[Monkeypaws]

Larnach vs. Rooker: I think Larnach the much better prospect. 

 

a. he is a better hitter for average

 

b. probably better in the field

 

c. much better bb/k ratio

 

d. power is a wash.

 

Mr. Larnach is getting short-changed here.

[ewen21]

 

Although, I do hope you are correct that Buxton will have a productive 2019. I am hesitant Buxton will get back on track - mainly as his head is not on straight after not getting called up at the end of 2018. Buxton's struggles on the field have seemed to coincide with mental struggles. Although, I am not sure what came first - the chicken or the egg/Buxton's on-field or mental struggles. They seem intertwined. I think the Twins need to let Buxton play with no pressure, put him the #9 spot and tell him to just play baseball. The mental struggle seems real with Buxton.

I agree.  There is a noticeable mental component to it, but I am not sure the Twins can create a zero gravity environment where pressure doesn't exist.  Pressure is part of the equation and it is entirely on him to learn how to play major league baseball.  

 

There are different things over the years that have left me more and more concerned about his mindset.  When he was sent down in 2016 he acted relieved and said,:

"I struggled with pretty much everything," he said. "It wasn't one thing that stood out and it showed. I just had to come back down here and get the pressure off my shoulder, relax and get my confidence back." and from the same article when discussing his teammates in Rochester:

"It's very fun," he said. "We all know each other and we help each other out. We have great team chemistry. We don't even call us a team, we call us a family because of how close we are. We battle every day and we play for each other. That brings us more and more together."

​​I remember reading that quote and scratching my head.  

 

 

 

IT's been a whole lot of overthinking and tinkering for four years now.  Not sure how the Twins are supposed shield him from the world.  Especially now since he spoke out against management and said he 'won't sugarcoat" 

 

:Precisely.  The Twins should no longer sugarcoat things for him.  Play poorly and you lose your job.  This is the business you chose.  Be a man and own it

[Aerodeliria]

It's an interesting venture and one which naturally generates much discussion. I won't argue with most of the selections but do think that Buxton is too high. As was previously mentioned, I'd have him placed somewhere near Sano. If we think about the physical attributes and the talent potential of both players, we could arguably place them both in the top three or four; however, their problems seem to be related to their mental strength and confidence. Suggestions on how to improve at the plate, on various approaches to hitting and on various tweaks can be useful but only to a point. Once the hitter is standing in the box, their mental approach becomes the deciding factor as to how they will perform. I am hoping against hope that Rocco can cut through the fog and get these two 'stars' to start performing at a level nearer to their potential. Nevertheless, with that said, I feel that this is a much bigger task than just saying, "Let's go back to 2017."

[Aerodeliria]

PS-I believe the addition of Cruz can be a significant factor towards helping these two young hitters progress. Three cheers to the Twins for going after Cruz.

[ewen21]

 

It's an interesting venture and one which naturally generates much discussion. I won't argue with most of the selections but do think that Buxton is too high. As was previously mentioned, I'd have him placed somewhere near Sano. If we think about the physical attributes and the talent potential of both players, we could arguably place them both in the top three or four; however, their problems seem to be related to their mental strength and confidence. Suggestions on how to improve at the plate, on various approaches to hitting and on various tweaks can be useful but only to a point. Once the hitter is standing in the box, their mental approach becomes the deciding factor as to how they will perform. I am hoping against hope that Rocco can cut through the fog and get these two 'stars' to start performing at a level nearer to their potential. Nevertheless, with that said, I feel that this is a much bigger task than just saying, "Let's go back to 2017."

There is a definite lack of maturity on the part of both.  I was actually stunned by Buxton's mini tantrum in the children's hospital.  He is supposed to be Mr. Humble, but I fail to see where he is any longer.  I am also beginning to question his work ethic--as in, is he actually doing what he needs to do to improve?  Not sure how much he addresses that both physically and mentally. I would not be shocked if he were doing wind sprints down in Georgia as I type this.  Seems as though he really likes doing that stuff.  Not so sure he likes hitting so much and that is about 75% of what a position player brings to the table.  I have heard people speak rather confidently about his work ethic and athletic ability.  If those two things are firmly in place then why doesn't he learn?

 

Buxton is starting to look more like Herb Washington and Renaldo Neiamiah these days.  Both guys had speed and other "athletic gifts" (whatever that is) but could not play the sport they suited up to play.  Buxton can run down fly balls.  There is not a question about it.  The problem is he doesn't get to make spectacular plays all that often.  The opportunities just are not there.  If he is in the lineup daily he gets four opportunities in the batter's box and that overshadows his defense.  I don't want to hear about his glove anymore.

 

Sano is even more frustrating because he came up as a 22 year old and made quite an impact in a short period of time.  Since then, he has had all sorts of problems finding himself, staying in shape and staying out of trouble  He doesn't seem capable of learning (even moreso than Buxton).  I honestly think they are now what Justin and Joe were in 2011 where we just pretended neither of them were going to do anything (or even play) and anything they give us is gravy.  We CANNOT operate like this.  What the heck went wrong with these two?

 

And, no.....it isn't too early to say that.  By now, both were expected to major forces in the lineup.  It is most certainly time to start questioning WHY they aren't better and they must inherit a large portion of the blame for where they are now.  If it means questioning things about them then so be it.

[Twodogs]

Great job! Nice work.

[Penthang]

Thanks! This was an immensely fun series to read and go through the commments for. I’m sort of hoping Kirilloff reaches the majors this year. With a health and productive Cruz, Buxton, Sano, and Kirilloff along with the good versions of Schoop and Cron and a moving the needle forward version of Kepler this could be a great lineup.

[Mr. Brooks]

Larnach vs. Rooker: I think Larnach the much better prospect.

 

a. he is a better hitter for average

 

b. probably better in the field

 

c. much better bb/k ratio

 

d. power is a wash.

 

Mr. Larnach is getting short-changed here.

I agree, and don't think it's even close.

I guess I'm missing the boat on Rooker, but I wouldn't rank him higher than Walker and Palka were when they were in our system.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Larnach vs. Rooker: I think Larnach the much better prospect. 

 

a. he is a better hitter for average

 

b. probably better in the field

 

c. much better bb/k ratio

 

d. power is a wash.

 

Mr. Larnach is getting short-changed here.

You might be right (probably are) but right now all we have to go by is 177 PA in rookie-ball and Low-A. He did what you expect from a first-round bat-first college draft pick, and hasn't been meaningfully challenged yet. If he puts together a quality first full season he'll be on here. 

 

 

I agree, and don't think it's even close.
I guess I'm missing the boat on Rooker, but I wouldn't rank him higher than Walker and Palka were when they were in our system.

He's really smart and sophisticated in his mindset about hitting, and he has an uncommon ability to drive and elevate the ball, which points to sustainably prolific power. This article calls him one of the top breakout candidates in the minors for that reason. 

[Mr. Brooks]

You might be right (probably are) but right now all we have to go by is 177 PA in rookie-ball and Low-A. He did what you expect from a first-round bat-first college draft pick, and hasn't been meaningfully challenged yet. If he puts together a quality first full season he'll be on here.

 

 

He's really smart and sophisticated in his mindset about hitting, and he has an uncommon ability to drive and elevate the ball, which points to sustainably prolific power. This article calls him one of the top breakout candidates in the minors for that reason.

This is a whole 'nother can of worms. But, if he did what was expected, and it didn't tell us much, why do the Twins bother sending these advanced college bats to rookie ball in the first place? Seems like a waste of time.

[BJames]

I still have no love for Buxton.  Rosario is a good all around player (bat, glove and can run) Kepler is solid defensively and at least hits for power.  Buxton-Great Glove.  Thats it so far.  I think Rosario is proven, Kepler- if he can get the bat a little more solidly on the ball could be .265, 30HR guy.  Buxton? I got nothing,  30SB's? Bat 9th?  I'm not a Sano guy either, but, he could hit 40Hr's.  Sure most of them would mean nothing, but its not out of reach.  Buxton????

[Nick Nelson]

 

This is a whole 'nother can of worms. But, if he did what was expected, and it didn't tell us much, why do the Twins bother sending these advanced college bats to rookie ball in the first place? Seems like a waste of time.

I wouldn't call it a waste. The first half-season after being drafted is generally about getting a guy acclimated to the pro culture and lifestyle, as opposed to putting them immediately on the fast-track to the majors. If Larnach follows the same path as Rooker next year he could potentially be poised for an early-2020 debut. 

 

 

Buxton? I got nothing,  30SB's? Bat 9th?  I'm not a Sano guy either, but, he could hit 40Hr's.  Sure most of them would mean nothing, but its not out of reach.  Buxton????

What's "out of reach" for Buxton? He hit 10 HR in September of 2016 alone. He stole 16 bases on 16 attempts in the second half of 2017. He was also named the most valuable defensive player in baseball that year. It's not like he hasn't shown his ability on the field.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was not particularly impressed by the Kirilloff pick but I love being wrong when it looks like this.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I still have no love for Buxton. Rosario is a good all around player (bat, glove and can run) Kepler is solid defensively and at least hits for power. Buxton-Great Glove. Thats it so far. I think Rosario is proven, Kepler- if he can get the bat a little more solidly on the ball could be .265, 30HR guy. Buxton? I got nothing, 30SB's? Bat 9th? I'm not a Sano guy either, but, he could hit 40Hr's. Sure most of them would mean nothing, but its not out of reach. Buxton????

Rosario took a huge step forward in 2018.

 

His season tally was still .1 fWAR lower than Buxton’s partial 2017 season.

 

In all likelihood, Rosario will be the better hitter. But Buxton is better at literally everything else and it’s not close. If Buxton can stay healthy and hit his way out of a paper bag, he’s immensely valuable.

[jokin]

 

Nothing against Gonsalves, but I would’ve put Thorpe or Stewart in his spot.

 

Bingo!

[dmhdale57]

Nick: I wonder what scouts would say about Twins assets.  Does Twins Daily have some relationships with scouts around the country that would be will to look over the list?  If Twins were looking to make a trade for an establish MLB star and the potential trading partner was told to take any Twins asset, how would they rank the assets?