Article: The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2019: Part 3 (6-10)

[Twins33]

That doesn't really explain why Rosario's OPS was .659 in April, or .683 in July before Escobar was traded. Rosario had two amazing months (May & June) surrounded by four months with sub-.670 OPS.

 

If you didn't say it, I was going to, so thanks.

 

I'm a Rosario fan but he was absolutely terrible for four months last year and it feels like a lot of people don't know that because the other two months were so excellent. Even I was surprised a few months ago when I saw the stats.

[Twodogs]

Rocco Baldelli knows.

 

22BFA59D-FF8A-4629-A338-C925924A0CBE.jpeg

 

CC4B3892-29C1-49C0-9929-0A60FB0305D7.jpeg

Hard to tell, but he doesn't look over weight. His legs look skinny though?? But the picture could be deceptive?

[AlwaysinModeration]

Hard to tell, but he doesn't look over weight. His legs look skinny though?? But the picture could be deceptive?

All I could see were the strawberry capri pants.

 

I’m encouraged by the statement about his work and commitment to the Twins accompanying the photo, and the fact that Rocco went to DR to connect in person with one of his two potential super-stars. Maybe it means nothing, but I’m of the mind that it in fact means something.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Hard to tell, but he doesn't look over weight. His legs look skinny though?? But the picture could be deceptive?

I thought Rocco's legs looked like they were about half the size of Miguel's.

[TwinsTerritory]

I appreciate the time and thought Nick puts into his list.  With his top 5 being fairly easy to guess (unless he has a man-crush on Willians), I'll take a shot at my list using his criteria as best I can.

 

20. Jake Cave, OF--insurance if Buxton/Kepler can't stay healthy or take the next step.

19. Michael Pineda, SP--including him in my top 20 because I see value as a potential top of the order pitcher, extension candidate, or trade candidate

18. Adalberto Mejia, LHP--he throws with his left hand and will probably have a decent MLB career, but not sold it will be with the Twins

17. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP--see Mejia, but with more team control and hopefully a higher ceiling

16. Nick Gordon, SS--I placed him a little higher as I still see a potential above average middle infielder and that has value

15. Wander Javier, SS--Appears to have a higher ceiling than Gordon, but is also a lot farther away

14. Trevor May, RHP--Can he stay healthy and find a role that gives him high value?  Last fall was promising

13. Taylor Rogers, LHP--Has been pretty dominate for the past 2 years, excited for the future

12. Mitch Garver, C--if he can stick behind the plate (a fairly big if), his bat could make him an above average catcher and those are hard to find

11. Kyle Gibson, RHP--Hopefully last year was a sign that he has turned a corner and the Twins can lock him up for a few more years

10. Max Kepler, OF--really like him, but there are definitely concerns that his ceiling isn't as high as once hoped

9. Fernando Romero, RHP--has nasty stuff, but the Twins need to find a role that will allow him to show it

8. Miguel Sano, 3B--as seen in the forum, he is probably the most polarizing name on the list.  I put him a little higher as I still see that 40 homer potential

7. Brusdar Graterol, RHP--sounds like he has all the tools to be an ace, but he's still a ways away

6. Eddie Rosario, OF--even if we've seen his peak, I'll take an above average corner outfielder for the next few years

 

5. Jorge Polanco, SS--see my comments above about middle infielders.  He probably shouldn't play SS, but that bat will play at 2B

 

4. Byron Buxton, OF--I'm with Nick here.  Even if he never reaches the full potential at the plate, that glove and those legs will keep him playing CF for a long time

 

3. Alex Kiriloff, OF--Hard to not buy in when every expert seems sold that he's the real deal.

 

2. Royce Lewis, SS--If the Twins play in a World Series in the next 10 years, it's probably because he is the face of the franchise

 

1. Jose Berrios, RHP--At the top of the list because he's made it to the show and seems to be getting better each year.  I believe he can still become an ace and they are probably the hardest thing for a medium or small market franchise to find.

[Nick Nelson]

Great list! Well reasoned. Can't quibble with it much. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

I agree with Twinsterritory, appreciate the list. It's fun reading and fun to see other's passion in how and where they see each asset fits.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I appreciate the time and thought Nick puts into his list.  With his top 5 being fairly easy to guess (unless he has a man-crush on Willians), I'll take a shot at my list using his criteria as best I can.

 

20. Jake Cave, OF--insurance if Buxton/Kepler can't stay healthy or take the next step.

19. Michael Pineda, SP--including him in my top 20 because I see value as a potential top of the order pitcher, extension candidate, or trade candidate

18. Adalberto Mejia, LHP--he throws with his left hand and will probably have a decent MLB career, but not sold it will be with the Twins

17. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP--see Mejia, but with more team control and hopefully a higher ceiling

16. Nick Gordon, SS--I placed him a little higher as I still see a potential above average middle infielder and that has value

15. Wander Javier, SS--Appears to have a higher ceiling than Gordon, but is also a lot farther away

14. Trevor May, RHP--Can he stay healthy and find a role that gives him high value?  Last fall was promising

13. Taylor Rogers, LHP--Has been pretty dominate for the past 2 years, excited for the future

12. Mitch Garver, C--if he can stick behind the plate (a fairly big if), his bat could make him an above average catcher and those are hard to find

11. Kyle Gibson, RHP--Hopefully last year was a sign that he has turned a corner and the Twins can lock him up for a few more years

10. Max Kepler, OF--really like him, but there are definitely concerns that his ceiling isn't as high as once hoped

9. Fernando Romero, RHP--has nasty stuff, but the Twins need to find a role that will allow him to show it

8. Miguel Sano, 3B--as seen in the forum, he is probably the most polarizing name on the list.  I put him a little higher as I still see that 40 homer potential

7. Brusdar Graterol, RHP--sounds like he has all the tools to be an ace, but he's still a ways away

6. Eddie Rosario, OF--even if we've seen his peak, I'll take an above average corner outfielder for the next few years

 

5. Jorge Polanco, SS--see my comments above about middle infielders.  He probably shouldn't play SS, but that bat will play at 2B

 

4. Byron Buxton, OF--I'm with Nick here.  Even if he never reaches the full potential at the plate, that glove and those legs will keep him playing CF for a long time

 

3. Alex Kiriloff, OF--Hard to not buy in when every expert seems sold that he's the real deal.

 

2. Royce Lewis, SS--If the Twins play in a World Series in the next 10 years, it's probably because he is the face of the franchise

 

1. Jose Berrios, RHP--At the top of the list because he's made it to the show and seems to be getting better each year.  I believe he can still become an ace and they are probably the hardest thing for a medium or small market franchise to find.

 

This makes a lot more sense honestly.  I appreciate the time you put into this.  I'd even bet Nick's would look a bit more like this given hindsight.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I appreciate the time and thought Nick puts into his list.  With his top 5 being fairly easy to guess (unless he has a man-crush on Willians), I'll take a shot at my list using his criteria as best I can.

 

20. Jake Cave, OF--insurance if Buxton/Kepler can't stay healthy or take the next step.

 

19. Michael Pineda, SP--including him in my top 20 because I see value as a potential top of the order pitcher, extension candidate, or trade candidate

 

18. Adalberto Mejia, LHP--he throws with his left hand and will probably have a decent MLB career, but not sold it will be with the Twins

 

17. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP--see Mejia, but with more team control and hopefully a higher ceiling

 

16. Nick Gordon, SS--I placed him a little higher as I still see a potential above average middle infielder and that has value

 

15. Wander Javier, SS--Appears to have a higher ceiling than Gordon, but is also a lot farther away

 

14. Trevor May, RHP--Can he stay healthy and find a role that gives him high value?  Last fall was promising

 

13. Taylor Rogers, LHP--Has been pretty dominate for the past 2 years, excited for the future

 

12. Mitch Garver, C--if he can stick behind the plate (a fairly big if), his bat could make him an above average catcher and those are hard to find

 

11. Kyle Gibson, RHP--Hopefully last year was a sign that he has turned a corner and the Twins can lock him up for a few more years

 

10. Max Kepler, OF--really like him, but there are definitely concerns that his ceiling isn't as high as once hoped

 

9. Fernando Romero, RHP--has nasty stuff, but the Twins need to find a role that will allow him to show it

 

8. Miguel Sano, 3B--as seen in the forum, he is probably the most polarizing name on the list.  I put him a little higher as I still see that 40 homer potential

 

7. Brusdar Graterol, RHP--sounds like he has all the tools to be an ace, but he's still a ways away

 

6. Eddie Rosario, OF--even if we've seen his peak, I'll take an above average corner outfielder for the next few years

 

5. Jorge Polanco, SS--see my comments above about middle infielders.  He probably shouldn't play SS, but that bat will play at 2B

 

4. Byron Buxton, OF--I'm with Nick here.  Even if he never reaches the full potential at the plate, that glove and those legs will keep him playing CF for a long time

 

3. Alex Kiriloff, OF--Hard to not buy in when every expert seems sold that he's the real deal.

 

2. Royce Lewis, SS--If the Twins play in a World Series in the next 10 years, it's probably because he is the face of the franchise

 

1. Jose Berrios, RHP--At the top of the list because he's made it to the show and seems to be getting better each year.  I believe he can still become an ace and they are probably the hardest thing for a medium or small market franchise to find.

Nice list. Now take out all the minor leaguers not named Lewis and drop Sano behind Gibson

[Twodogs]

I thought Rocco's legs looked like they were about half the size of Miguel's.

 

 

[Squirrel]

This makes a lot more sense honestly.  I appreciate the time you put into this.  I'd even bet Nick's would look a bit more like this given hindsight.

You’ve critiqued quite a bit so I’m curious what your top 20 assets list would be?

[TwinsTerritory]

 

Great list! Well reasoned. Can't quibble with it much. 

Having your list as a starting point made it much easier to reason through.  Couldn't imagine how much more difficult it would be to start from scratch!

[jmlease1]

 

Nice list. Now take out all the minor leaguers not named Lewis and drop Sano behind Gibson

 

Seriously? Kirilloff isn't going to end up being that far behind Lewis on the prospect lists and might reach the majors sooner. The kid can flat-out hit and came back from a major injury with no problems at all. There's no way he's not one of the Twins top assets, and eliminating all minor league players save one from the list is silly.

 

Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Javier all should be on this list and there's a good argument to be made for Larnach too.

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Seriously? Kirilloff isn't going to end up being that far behind Lewis on the prospect lists and might reach the majors sooner. The kid can flat-out hit and came back from a major injury with no problems at all. There's no way he's not one of the Twins top assets, and eliminating all minor league players save one from the list is silly.

 

Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Javier all should be on this list and there's a good argument to be made for Larnach too.

It's just an opinion. I do think Kirilloff is a very good prospect but do have questions about why he's ranked so high in national lists. I'd like to see him repeat it another year.

[TheLeviathan]

 

You’ve critiqued quite a bit so I’m curious what your top 20 assets list would be?

 

When I hear the word "asset" I think present value matters, but long-term value is even more important.  Assets are also something you can move, so trade value matters quite a bit too.  Mine would look something like this:

 

1. Berrios

2. Lewis

3. Kirloff

4. Buxton

5. Sano

6. Polanco

7. Graterol

8. Romero

9. Rosario

10. Kepler

11. Garver

12. Gibson

13. Gordon

14. Gonsalves

15. Rogers

16. Javier

17. May

18. Larnoch

19. Thorpe

20. Pineda

 

Buxton's year of control breaks his tie with Sano.  Like it or not, short and long term this franchise is tied at the hip to these two.  At least for now.

 

Gibson slightly over Gordon and Gonsalves because I still think he could fetch a better prospect for him than either of those two.  Gordon and Gonsalves are likely to be call-ups this year and have decent trade value, so they outweigh Javier and some of the bullpen guys. 

 

Also editing this in ...and I think this is important: I tried to do as little projecting as possible.  That's one of my concerns with the other lists.  This is more of a snapshot of "Where are they right now".  Right now, the Twins would only get buy low offers on Sano and Buxton.  People might feel like one or the other has a future higher on this asset list.  I tried to avoid doing that and only take stock of them as they are right now for value to this franchise.

Edited January 3, 2019 by TheLeviathan

[jkcarew]

 

When I hear the word "asset" I think present value matters, but long-term value is even more important.  Assets are also something you can move, so trade value matters quite a bit too.  Mine would look something like this:

 

1. Berrios

2. Lewis

3. Kirloff

4. Buxton

5. Sano

6. Polanco

7. Graterol

8. Romero

9. Rosario

10. Kepler

11. Garver

12. Gibson

13. Gordon

14. Gonsalves

15. Rogers

16. Javier

17. May

18. Larnoch

19. Thorpe

20. Pineda

I like this ranking.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I found it interesting that Kepler is still so highly rated after last year, whereas Cave is nowhere to be found. I understand that Kepler has potential, bu he has not matched that potential at the plate in what is now a fairly large sample size of 3 years everyday play and over 1500 at bats. Conversely, Cave has preformed at the plate in a small sample size. People talk about Kepler's defense and how he would be a competent CF but when we needed an everyday CF last year, the manager chose Cave over Kepler. That speaks volumes about the organization's view of the defensive comparison. Given the difference in sample size, I could see having Kepler slightly above Cave, who may simply be a half season flash in the pan, but to have one in the Top 10 and one unranked seems to be a bit of a miss. 

 

I wonder if the obsession on this Board with Kepler is the result of a lack of other options or the fact that we've been hearing about him for so long that we are emotionally invested in his success and are simply ignoring the facts. The facts are simple - he's a good defensive OF who doesn't hit.  A corner OF on a good team needs to be at least in the .760-.780 OPS range, more likely at .780 or above and an OPS+ above 110. Kepler has been at .734, .737 and ,.727 the last 3 years with an OPS+ of 96, 95, and 96. In other words, below average for all positions and way below average for a corner OF on a contender. No one has ever really been able to explain his perceived value other than with "he's young and is going to get better", or "don't give up on him too early, look at Hicks".  I guess those are valid excuses for awhile but they're getting kind of old after 3 years of below average to poor everyday play. I hope you're right but I think we have to see that hoped for breakout this year or he may be destined for a career as a 4th OF, which is exactly the way he's played for the last 3 years. There's value to a good 4th OF - I think the Twins are in a good spot this year with 4 OFs  who all at least have potential - but that guy can't be in a Top 10 value chart.   

 

I hope you're right about Kepler. I'll be cheering for him but I have my doubts. I hope he's practicing at 1B, but it would be irritating to see him playing every day over Cave who clearly outperformed Kepler last year. Players need to earn playing time on this team instead of it being handed to them as it was in the past. Kepler needs to earn his by outperforming either Cave or Buxton and/or by being valuable enough to play 1B as well as the OF and he needs to do it with either a very strong ST or from the bench, not as a scholarship starter. The Twins culture needs to change to reward performance and RF would be a good place to start.

 

By the way, love the rest of the list. Keep up the great work.  

 

I think because people watch the game and can see that he looks like he knows what he is doing. Kepler consistently takes good at bats. He walks a fair amount also and hits for decent power and is young. Add 20 points onto his batting average and another 15 walks and 5 HRs and you have a player that hits .250/.350/440 and is 25 years old. He also plays good defense. 

 

I don't know, of all of the hitters we watch, he looks like he is one that has the most room for improvement at the plate. He has a good approach right now. 

Edited January 3, 2019 by Battle ur tail off

[Twodogs]

I think because people watch the game and can see that he looks like he knows what he is doing. Kepler consistently takes good at bats. He walks a fair amount also and hits for decent power and is young. Add 20 points onto his batting average and another 15 walks and 5 HRs and you have a player that hits .250/.350/440 and is 25 years old. He also plays good defense.

 

I don't know, of all of the hitters we watch, he looks like he is one that has the most room for improvement at the plate. He has a good approach right now.

Not to mention he made improvements against lefty's last year. So it seems like he tries to make adjustments to get better, which means he's listening and working to get better. It doesn't always work out but I'd always place my bets on guys like that, who seem willing to work to get better rather than guys like Oswaldo Arcia who never seemed to change his approach.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wonder if the obsession on this Board with Kepler is the result of a lack of other options or the fact that we've been hearing about him for so long that we are emotionally invested in his success and are simply ignoring the facts. The facts are simple - he's a good defensive OF who doesn't hit. A corner OF on a good team needs to be at least in the .760-.780 OPS range, more likely at .780 or above and an OPS+ above 110. Kepler has been at .734, .737 and ,.727 the last 3 years with an OPS+ of 96, 95, and 96. In other words, below average for all positions and way below average for a corner OF on a contender. No one has ever really been able to explain his perceived value other than with "he's young and is going to get better", or "don't give up on him too early, look at Hicks". I guess those are valid excuses for awhile but they're getting kind of old after 3 years of below average to poor everyday play. I hope you're right but I think we have to see that hoped for breakout this year or he may be destined for a career as a 4th OF, which is exactly the way he's played for the last 3 years. There's value to a good 4th OF - I think the Twins are in a good spot this year with 4 OFs who all at least have potential - but that guy can't be in a Top 10 value chart.

Kepler has 0.7, 0.0, 0.7 WAA (Wins Above Average) the last 3 years per B-Ref -- we hope that goes up, for sure, but that's a starter level performance, definitionally average or a bit above.

 

As for your "among contenders" qualifier, in 2018, only 3 teams in the AL reached even 1.0 WAA in RF as a team. Same for LF. So while 0.7 WAA isn't great, it isn't bad either.

Edited January 3, 2019 by spycake

[caninatl04]

Rocco Baldelli knows.

 

22BFA59D-FF8A-4629-A338-C925924A0CBE.jpeg

 

CC4B3892-29C1-49C0-9929-0A60FB0305D7.jpeg

Who's the skinny guy on the right?

[jokin]

 

It's just an opinion. I do think Kirilloff is a very good prospect but do have questions about why he's ranked so high in national lists. I'd like to see him repeat it another year.

 

Wow. Tough crowd.

[jokin]

 

When I hear the word "asset" I think present value matters, but long-term value is even more important.  Assets are also something you can move, so trade value matters quite a bit too.  Mine would look something like this:

 

1. Berrios

2. Lewis

3. Kirloff

4. Buxton

5. Sano

6. Polanco

7. Graterol

8. Romero

9. Rosario

10. Kepler

11. Garver

12. Gibson

13. Gordon

14. Gonsalves

15. Rogers

16. Javier

17. May

18. Larnoch

19. Thorpe

20. Pineda

 

Buxton's year of control breaks his tie with Sano.  Like it or not, short and long term this franchise is tied at the hip to these two.  At least for now.

 

 

Well done, Levi. My list would be very close to this. With the exception of me valuing higher the potential for the pitchers at the bottom of the list over some of the other names in the middle.

 

For example, and especially speaking of trade value, the way people are publicly whispering/talking about Garver, it sounds like his career as a catcher is potentially over practically before it's begun- the apparently omni-present risk of Garver simply having limited potential asset value as just a bench bat should immediately move him to the 20-25 range, or lower. How many teams would be willing to sacrifice a roster spot and bring anything of value to the Twins in return if it's generally understood around the league that his catching days are severely in doubt?

 

(I know I'm out on a lonely limb on this, but the numbers say Kohl Stewart actually showed enough of his Soft Contact%/GB%/IFFB%/GB-FB ratio [all better #s than Gibson] with his spinner stuff to make me put him near the #20 spot. Only Dallas Kuechel had a higher GB-FB ratio among all qualifying starters. The others ahead of Stewart have higher ceilings for sure, and it was only 36+ IP, but if/as/when the Twins transition to better gloves on the left side of the IF, his value- to the Twins- or a team with a stellar IF defense- as the ultimate P-2-C starter, could vault him into a potentially fairly reliable #4-5 SP).

Edited January 7, 2019 by jokin