Article: The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2019: Part 2 (11-15)

[Nick Nelson]

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 7:08 PM, jorgenswest said:

Opinion or based on projection models?

Opinion, I guess, based on the fact that Cruz has averaged 40+ HR and been extremely durable the last 5 years while Sano has never hit more than 28 and never played 120 games in an MLB season. Fwiw, FanGraphs projects Cruz to hit 37 next year and Sano to hit 29 (which seems generous to me based on his broken plate approach and injury history). 

 

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 6:43 PM, howieramone2 said:

Trevor May continues to be the most overrated player in the history of TD. Austin is starting to give him a run though.

Are you aware of how good he was this year upon returning? His numbers across the board were on par with the game's best relievers. In what way is he overrated? 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

Sano is very tough to project. I also think he is more likely than others on the list to find himself in trouble off the field which will impact his play or his status to play on the field.

[drivlikejehu]

I tried to understand the idea behind this list, but failed. It's not current value, future value, trade value, 2019 projection . . . seems more like a symptom of a slow-to-date off-season.

[howieramone2]

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 7:22 PM, Nick Nelson said:

Opinion, I guess, based on the fact that Cruz has averaged 40+ HR and been extremely durable the last 5 years while Sano has never hit more than 28 and never played 120 games in an MLB season. Fwiw, FanGraphs projects Cruz to hit 37 next year and Sano to hit 29 (which seems generous to me based on his broken plate approach and injury history). 

 

 

Are you aware of how good he was this year upon returning? His numbers across the board were on par with the game's best relievers. In what way is he overrated? 

Until he dies, members are going to want him to go back to being a starter. He hasn't started in The Show since 2015. I watched every game in September. He pitched himself back into the mix, but no more than that. If the numbers show he is on par with the best relievers, look for different numbers. Off the top of my head, look at inherited runners.

[TheLeviathan]

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 7:56 PM, drivlikejehu said:

I tried to understand the idea behind this list, but failed. It's not current value, future value, trade value, 2019 projection . . . seems more like a symptom of a slow-to-date off-season.

 

Gonna need more popcorn now!

[Nick Nelson]

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 7:56 PM, drivlikejehu said:

I tried to understand the idea behind this list, but failed. It's not current value, future value, trade value, 2019 projection . . . seems more like a symptom of a slow-to-date off-season.

It's a combination of all those things, weighted in my own (admittedly vague and subjective) manner. When you come to terms with the fact that these rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and established performance (the idea for me is akin to stocks going up and down) the methodology should become easier to understand. Maybe not. 

 

Also, I did these same rankings last year so I dunno why people keep acting like it's a random idea that materialized solely due to the circumstances of this offseason. The objective is taking stock of what's currently on hand and how it figures into the plan going forward. And to try and chart the movement that takes place from year-to-year.

 

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 7:59 PM, howieramone2 said:

Until he dies, members are going to want him to go back to being a starter. He hasn't started in The Show since 2015. I watched every game in September. He pitched himself back into the mix, but no more than that. If the numbers show he is on par with the best relievers, look for different numbers. Off the top of my head, look at inherited runners.

People want him to be a starter because he's never really gotten a full shot and has four quality pitches. He came back from TJ surgery throwing 94 MPH with his fastball and inducing a 15% swinging strike rate, which would rank top-15 among qualified MLB relievers. When used as an actual reliever (so, subtracting the one outing as "opener") he had a 1.85 ERA and 2.23 xFIP

 

When you say, "If numbers make him seem good then look at other numbers," then cite a relatively arbitrary one like IR%, it makes it sound like you're the one with the agenda, not everyone else. 

[markos]

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 7:22 PM, Nick Nelson said:

Are you aware of how good he was this year upon returning? His numbers across the board were on par with the game's best relievers. In what way is he overrated? 

A few points on this:

1 - it is a relatively small sample of domination (~100 batters)

2 - 56% of the batters he faced were from KC, Det and Chi

3 - Relievers are pretty volatile year-over-year. 

4 - The early projections aren't buying a breakout.

[jorgenswest]

I would only add that it really isn’t the relievers themselves or their ability that is volatile year to year. The inherit sample of any reliever is too small to be reliable and it is the variablility of a small sample that drives the perception of volatility.

 

This is important in our perception of Addison Reed. We see last year’s number and assume a drop off in skill but that may not be the case. We might have been seeing the 10th percentile results of a reliever his skill level.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 8:46 PM, Nick Nelson said:

It's a combination of all those things, weighted in my own (admittedly vague and subjective) manner. When you come to terms with the fact that these rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and established performance (the idea for me is akin to stocks going up and down) the methodology should become easier to understand. Maybe not. 

 

Also, I did these same rankings last year so I dunno why people keep acting like it's a random idea that materialized solely due to the circumstances of this offseason. The objective is taking stock of what's currently on hand and how it figures into the plan going forward. And to try and chart the movement that takes place from year-to-year.

 

 

People want him to be a starter because he's never really gotten a full shot and has four quality pitches. He came back from TJ surgery throwing 94 MPH with his fastball and inducing a 15% swinging strike rate, which would rank top-15 among qualified MLB relievers. When used as an actual reliever (so, subtracting the one outing as "opener") he had a 1.85 ERA and 2.23 xFIP

 

When you say, "If numbers make him seem good then look at other numbers," then cite a relatively arbitrary one like IR%, it makes it sound like you're the one with the agenda, not everyone else. 

My issue with May is in his 5 seasons as a Twin he has averaged a whopping 46 IP per season. Bottom line is he can't be counted on. Not to mention his almost 5 ERA  when he has pitched.

 

May shouldn't even be Top 20 in our assets let alone #11.

[h2oface]

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 7:22 PM, Nick Nelson said:

Are you aware of how good he (Trevor May) was this year upon returning? His numbers across the board were on par with the game's best relievers. In what way is he overrated? 

 

I guess this is an example where it subjectively fits to just speak of his recent small sample, than to use his not so attractive career stats....... and I agree. Brings better hope.

[Nick Nelson]

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 9:06 PM, markos said:

A few points on this:

1 - it is a relatively small sample of domination (~100 batters)

2 - 56% of the batters he faced were from KC, Det and Chi

3 - Relievers are pretty volatile year-over-year. 

4 - The early projections aren't buying a breakout.

Well, if we extend the sample, he has held opponents to a .229/.296/.398 line with a 32% K-rate (12.1 K/9) in 100 career relief innings. You don't just fluke your way into a 15% swinging strike rate against MLB hitters. The guy's stuff is unbelievable out of the pen, and – to me at least – it's quite evident from watching him.

 

It absolutely baffles me that someone can say they watched him throughout September and he merely "worked his way back into the mix."

 

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 10:19 PM, sweetmusicviola16 said:

My issue with May is in his 5 seasons as a Twin he has averaged a whopping 46 IP per season. Bottom line is he can't be counted on. Not to mention his almost 5 ERA  when he has pitched.

 

May shouldn't even be Top 20 in our assets let alone #11.

That's not exactly a fair way to look at it, given he was mostly a reliever before the missed time. May ranked second on the team in appearances between 2015/16. He never missed time in the minors.

 

This notion that Trevor May isn't durable is just so weird to me. Undergoing TJ surgery doesn't make you injury-prone, it makes you a typical major-league pitcher.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

May has said in the past that his back doesn't hold up well to relief pitching every day. Maybe that's changed now, or will change with more practical expectations for our relievers. It's my belief that Reed and Pressly were overused last season, too (Reed needed DL time).

[Mr. Brooks]

  On 12/31/2018 at 6:41 PM, Nick Nelson said:

Um, Cruz is a MUCH better bet to reach 20 or 40 home runs in either of the next two years than Sano at this point. That's not even debatable. And then Sano has one year of control remaining after that.

 

Sano's age obviously does work in his favor but his trend line has been moving consistently downward for some time and he has established a new floor.

Sorry, that's not what I meant to debate. Your Sano ranking is fine with me.

I was debating your conclusion that 40 HR hitters aren't in demand anymore, which you pointed to Cruz's relatively conservative contract to come to. That contract is weighted by the risk that, at his age, any day now could be the day he stops hitting. If you could guarantee a team 40 HR and an .860 OPS, he'd have gotten a much bigger contract.

 

IF Sano becomes the hitter he's capable of, IF (and I have as many doubts as you), he'll have plenty of value. He was worth 2.3 bWAR in half a season his rookie year.

[Aerodeliria]

I have no problem with putting Sano at #14; but next year at this time, if he gets himself healthy, happy and hitworthy (if it hasn't been coined, I'll take it) he could move to #3 or #4, but that is only if he becomes Nelson Cruz Junior. On the other hand even if he is healthy and isn't "transformed," he could also become Joey Gallo Junior, and for a team like the Twins, the Joey Gallo's of the world don't have much value.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

 

 "I'm evaluating based on their value to the franchise's current path and vision."

 

This is in Nick's second post I believe. With that in mind is why Sano should  not be ranked behind #'s 11-13. I understand that other players will have passed him in value due to his awful 2018 and poor end of 2017. But at the same time that awful season actually makes clear and magnifies his value to this franchise. I don't think anyone can deny the importance of him rebounding and making it. Our FO even told us how important it was for Sano and Buxton to rebound after the season ended in defining how this club moves forward in the future.

 

I personally would have Sano at about #6 presently. I believe the Cruz signing, who I rank ahead of Sano in importance, will play a huge role in 2019.

 

[Nick Nelson]

 

  On 1/1/2019 at 3:17 AM, Mr. Brooks said:

Sorry, that's not what I meant to debate. Your Sano ranking is fine with me.
I was debating your conclusion that 40 HR hitters aren't in demand anymore, which you pointed to Cruz's relatively conservative contract to come to. That contract is weighted by the risk that, at his age, any day now could be the day he stops hitting. If you could guarantee a team 40 HR and an .860 OPS, he'd have gotten a much bigger contract.

IF Sano becomes the hitter he's capable of, IF (and I have as many doubts as you), he'll have plenty of value. He was worth 2.3 bWAR in half a season his rookie year.

Well, last year the Twins got Logan Morrison coming off a 38 HR campaign for peanuts, so I do think there's plenty of evidence that the ability to hit home runs – without much added defensive value or broader offensive skill – is losing its shine.

 

But I do agree completely with your last paragraph. Sano is plenty capable of being much more than that. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

  On 1/1/2019 at 9:06 PM, Nick Nelson said:

Well, last year the Twins got Logan Morrison coming off a 38 HR campaign for peanuts, so I do think there's plenty of evidence that the ability to hit home runs – without much added defensive value or broader offensive skill – is losing its shine.

 

Well, is it that or is it league-wide doubt about their ability to continue that production?  Granted LoMo and Cruz would have doubts for different reasons, but same problem I think.

[Nick Nelson]

 

  On 1/1/2019 at 5:36 PM, sweetmusicviola16 said:

 "I'm evaluating based on their value to the franchise's current path and vision."

 

This is in Nick's second post I believe. With that in mind is why Sano should  not be ranked behind #'s 11-13. I understand that other players will have passed him in value due to his awful 2018 and poor end of 2017. But at the same time that awful season actually makes clear and magnifies his value to this franchise. I don't think anyone can deny the importance of him rebounding and making it. Our FO even told us how important it was for Sano and Buxton to rebound after the season ended in defining how this club moves forward in the future.

 

I personally would have Sano at about #6 presently. I believe the Cruz signing, who I rank ahead of Sano in importance, will play a huge role in 2019.

It seems to me like the Twins have taken steps to account for Sano being less of a factor this year, loading up on additional right-handed power with Cruz, Schoop and Cron – though admittedly they don't have much of a viable backup plan at third unless Schoop can play there. 

 

But I have no issue with your reasoning here. In terms of which players CAN make the biggest impact on turning the Twins back into a contender in 2019, Sano is top 5, no doubt. But the risk levels with him are huge and everything was pointing the wrong direction at the end of the 2018 season.

 

 

  On 1/1/2019 at 9:08 PM, TheLeviathan said:

Well, is it that or is it league-wide doubt about their ability to continue that production?  Granted LoMo and Cruz would have doubts for different reasons, but same problem I think.

It's both, I'm sure. Your point is a fair one, but there's no denying that power hitting has lost some market value, right? Cron being acquired through waivers off a breakout 30-HR campaign is another example. 

[ashbury]

  On 1/1/2019 at 9:15 PM, Nick Nelson said:

It's both, I'm sure. Your point is a fair one, but there's no denying that power hitting has lost some market value, right? Cron being acquired through waivers off a breakout 30-HR campaign is another example. 

LoMo had a breakout 2017, too, and it was discounted by league GMs. I think TheLeviathan's principle applies just as well to Cron. Show you can do it twice, stay young, and then the big money may flow.

[TheLeviathan]

 

  On 1/1/2019 at 10:00 PM, ashburyjohn said:

LoMo had a breakout 2017, too, and it was discounted by league GMs. I think TheLeviathan's principle applies just as well to Cron. Show you can do it twice, stay young, and then the big money may flow.

 

Correct, I think teams are hesitant to spend big on what they feel are unsustainable numbers.  For Cruz, his age will eventually be a factor and it's why teams were hesitant.  For Cron and LoMo it was because they were viewed as flashes in the pan. 

 

I think the Cruz signing was a good one.  I think we can count on him to be productive, but we should also remember that players his age do not maintain their skills forever.  When they go south, they'll go south hard.  It shouldn't shock anyone if that happens this year, it's why the option year was so wise.

[Nick Nelson]

 

  On 1/1/2019 at 10:00 PM, ashburyjohn said:

LoMo had a breakout 2017, too, and it was discounted by league GMs. I think TheLeviathan's principle applies just as well to Cron. Show you can do it twice, stay young, and then the big money may flow.

How about Chris Carter? Got a tiny one-year deal from the Yankees coming off a 41-HR season, and had averaged 30 bombs in the prior three seasons. Now he's out of the majors. 

 

I don't think teams doubt Carter's ability to hit home runs. They just don't find it that valuable on its own. And, sadly, he's probably a much more relevant example with regards to Sano.

[ashbury]

  On 1/2/2019 at 2:21 AM, Nick Nelson said:

How about Chris Carter? Got a tiny one-year deal from the Yankees coming off a 41-HR season, and had averaged 30 bombs in the prior three seasons. Now he's out of the majors. 

 

I don't think teams doubt Carter's ability to hit home runs. They just don't find it that valuable on its own. And, sadly, he's probably a much more relevant example with regards to Sano.

Carter's a one-tool player. Bad contact tool, no defense/arm/speed tools.

 

Was there ever a time that a one-tool position player was in high demand (say, $10M+)? Power isn't even considered the most important tool, compared to hit/contact.

 

And if there ever was a time, analytics seems to have weeded those contracts out by now; astute bottom feeders like Tampa and Oakland didn't swoop in to outbid the seeming lowball offer, either of the past two years.

 

Carter's an especially poor example, given that he was indeed out of the majors a year later, putting up suspect PCL numbers at Salt Lake in short duty. The non-bidders were right. Carter brings absolutely nothing to the table other than the homers. An OPS+ just north of 100 is not valuable when no defensive value is combined at all.

 

The similarity to Cruz, an arguable two-tool player, is the risk at his age that he loses a tool. His 2017 numbers are worrisome with his hit-tool, and with another degradation he's Chris Carter.

 

I want to go back to what you said earlier, which launched this tangent:

  Quote

Your point is a fair one, but there's no denying that power hitting has lost some market value, right?

 

I don't think power hitting has lost market value. Anomalous bursts of power that might not prove sustainable, or power that may soon degrade, or power not augmented by anything else, probably have.

[TheLeviathan]

 

  On 1/2/2019 at 3:05 PM, ashburyjohn said:

 

I don't think power hitting has lost market value. Anomalous bursts of power that might not prove sustainable, or power that may soon degrade, or power not augmented by anything else, probably have.

 

To add to this excellent post...I don't think power is the only tool that could be fit into this sentence.  Put in contact, speed, defense, or any pitching attribute and I think it fits.  Analytics have stopped teams from paying for what they don't think can be repeated.  Regardless of the tool.

[SomeGuy]

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 5:01 AM, Nick Nelson said:

Haha, whew. A couple nuggets of food for thought before I go to bed and wake up to a hell storm.

 

Since appearing in the 2017 All Star Game, Miguel Sano has:

 

* Hit .210/.291/.370 in 437 plate appearances

* Played in 103 of a possible 236 games for the Twins

* Struck out at a 38% rate, with only 9% walks

* Suffered two serious injuries to the same leg, each lingering into the offseason

* Been optioned straight to Single-A

 

Because these are annually updated rankings, I'm attempting to heavily factor recent track record into the equation. You can argue I'm going too far with that here, and you might be right. But in the last 17 months Sano's stock has been on a steady downward plane. 

Being optioned "straight" to Single A isn't really a fair statement.  He wasn't sent there because AAA or AA were too much for him.  They wanted him to be near the extensive workout facilities that Fort Myers has available. 

 

I am optimistic about Sano with a full offseason.  As a prospect he was praised for his work ethic, he should rebound just fine as long as the leg holds up.

 

2019 success hinges more on Sano than any other player besides maybe Buxton.  An injured or ineffective Garver would not derail our season like another bad season from Sano would.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 1/2/2019 at 3:41 PM, SomeGuy said:

Being optioned "straight" to Single A isn't really a fair statement.  He wasn't sent there because AAA or AA were too much for him.  They wanted him to be near the extensive workout facilities that Fort Myers has available. 

I didn't read the original comment as meaning AA or AAA were too much for him. I read it as, there were/are obvious issues with Sano that required drastic action. In this case, getting him close to Fort Myers to control his diet and workouts (as well as try to rebuild his swing -- his issues go beyond conditioning). Still doesn't bode well for Sano's current state.

 

I hope you're right about him rebounding, of course.

[howieramone2]

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 8:46 PM, Nick Nelson said:

It's a combination of all those things, weighted in my own (admittedly vague and subjective) manner. When you come to terms with the fact that these rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and established performance (the idea for me is akin to stocks going up and down) the methodology should become easier to understand. Maybe not. 

 

Also, I did these same rankings last year so I dunno why people keep acting like it's a random idea that materialized solely due to the circumstances of this offseason. The objective is taking stock of what's currently on hand and how it figures into the plan going forward. And to try and chart the movement that takes place from year-to-year.

 

 

People want him to be a starter because he's never really gotten a full shot and has four quality pitches. He came back from TJ surgery throwing 94 MPH with his fastball and inducing a 15% swinging strike rate, which would rank top-15 among qualified MLB relievers. When used as an actual reliever (so, subtracting the one outing as "opener") he had a 1.85 ERA and 2.23 xFIP

 

When you say, "If numbers make him seem good then look at other numbers," then cite a relatively arbitrary one like IR%, it makes it sound like you're the one with the agenda, not everyone else. 

We have members who want him to close. For a closer, IR is not an arbitrary number. If the Twins could get starting pitching trade value for May, he would be gone in a heartbeat. My agenda is Pro-Twins. 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by howieramone2

[howieramone2]

 

  On 12/31/2018 at 11:53 PM, Nick Nelson said:

Well, if we extend the sample, he has held opponents to a .229/.296/.398 line with a 32% K-rate (12.1 K/9) in 100 career relief innings. You don't just fluke your way into a 15% swinging strike rate against MLB hitters. The guy's stuff is unbelievable out of the pen, and – to me at least – it's quite evident from watching him.

 

It absolutely baffles me that someone can say they watched him throughout September and he merely "worked his way back into the mix."

 

 

That's not exactly a fair way to look at it, given he was mostly a reliever before the missed time. May ranked second on the team in appearances between 2015/16. He never missed time in the minors.

 

This notion that Trevor May isn't durable is just so weird to me. Undergoing TJ surgery doesn't make you injury-prone, it makes you a typical major-league pitcher.

He was on the DL 4 times in 2015 and 2016. In an interview, he mentioned a chronic back issue, which also bothered him in the minors. 

[SomeGuy]

 

  On 1/2/2019 at 5:17 PM, spycake said:

I didn't read the original comment as meaning AA or AAA were too much for him. I read it as, there were/are obvious issues with Sano that required drastic action. In this case, getting him close to Fort Myers to control his diet and workouts (as well as try to rebuild his swing -- his issues go beyond conditioning). Still doesn't bode well for Sano's current state.

 

I hope you're right about him rebounding, of course.

I believe whatever issues he had with his swing are also connected to his conditioning.  It easy to see how someone's hard hit% and exit velocity decrease when he loses leg strength recovering from injury.  He was "immobilized"  last offseason according to the Front Office, I take that to mean he did not spend much if any time in a batting cage.

 

I find it kind of crazy how much fans have piled on to this injury.  You hear so many times that he is now a failed prospect and the Twins need to move on etc.  By the comments you wouldn't know that this time last year he was an all star 3rd baseman and a fan favorite.

[Nick Nelson]

 

  On 1/2/2019 at 5:50 PM, howieramone2 said:

We have members who want him to close. For a closer, IR is not an arbitrary number. If the Twins could get starting pitching trade value for May, he would be gone in a heartbeat. My agenda is Pro-Twins. 

For closers it is especially arbitrary/useless. Closers almost never enter a game with runners on base.

 

May held hitters to a .167 avg and .243 OBP with RISP, so I don't think there's much evidence he has issues with stranding runners or pitching from the stretch.

 

 

  On 1/2/2019 at 6:35 PM, SomeGuy said:

I find it kind of crazy how much fans have piled on to this injury.  You hear so many times that he is now a failed prospect and the Twins need to move on etc.  By the comments you wouldn't know that this time last year he was an all star 3rd baseman and a fan favorite.

I don't hear many people calling him a "failed prospect" but that injury is legitimately very concerning. His left leg has been a persistent problem. He missed a month early in the season with a hamstring issue in the same leg (who knows it it has anything to do with weakness/atrophy/whatever but it's a reasonable speculation). Then in September he went down in a heap after a fairly innocuous slide and missed the final month. Came back for one game, struck out four times, then was shut down again, and as of early October he was still experiencing soreness.

 

Personally, I got nervous every time I watched Sano run last year. That leg never looked right and was in bad shape at season's end. If it continues to impede his hitting, or forces him to move away from third base, it torpedoes his value. 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

  On 1/2/2019 at 6:35 PM, SomeGuy said:

I believe whatever issues he had with his swing are also connected to his conditioning.  It easy to see how someone's hard hit% and exit velocity decrease when he loses leg strength recovering from injury.  He was "immobilized"  last offseason according to the Front Office, I take that to mean he did not spend much if any time in a batting cage.

 

I find it kind of crazy how much fans have piled on to this injury.  You hear so many times that he is now a failed prospect and the Twins need to move on etc.  By the comments you wouldn't know that this time last year he was an all star 3rd baseman and a fan favorite.

Sano's last 275 PA before the 2017 leg injury (June 1st - August 17th, 2017): .245/.313/.442, 95 wRC+. Probably about replacement level performance, given his defense.

 

His entire 2016 wasn't much better: .236/.319/.462, 107 wRC+

 

Sano just hasn't shown an approach that can sustain MLB success at the plate yet.

 

EDIT TO ADD: And to Nick's point, if his 2016-2017 struggles are attributable to the same leg/hamstring issues as he had in 2018, it's probably just as concerning as swing/approach issues, maybe even moreso.

Edited January 2, 2019 by spycake