Article: The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2019: Part 2 (11-15)

[Nick Nelson]

 

He was on the DL 4 times in 2015 and 2016. In an interview, he mentioned a chronic back issue, which also bothered him in the minors. 

You'll have to find me this interview. As I recall the back issues were new -- attributed to working in an unfamiliar role -- and when I talked to him in ST the following year he was very confident that he'd moved past them, having developed a new back strengthening regimen. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

To add to this excellent post...I don't think power is the only tool that could be fit into this sentence.  Put in contact, speed, defense, or any pitching attribute and I think it fits.  Analytics have stopped teams from paying for what they don't think can be repeated.  Regardless of the tool.

Sure, that's a fine way to put it (although I still contend that 10 years earlier Carter would've had a much easier time finding work based on his HR total alone, whereas other tools wouldn't have carried someone as far).

 

Anyway, the point of this entire discussion is that it's not hard to see Sano becoming a one-tool player if he continues on his current path. And that point still stands. 

[TheLeviathan]

Sure, that's a fine way to put it (although I still contend that 10 years earlier Carter would've had a much easier time finding work based on his HR total alone, whereas other tools wouldn't have carried someone as far).

 

Anyway, the point of this entire discussion is that it's not hard to see Sano becoming a one-tool player if he continues on his current path. And that point still stands.

 

And I don't think the counter point about Cruz is at all minimized by that point.

[howieramone2]

 

You'll have to find me this interview. As I recall the back issues were new -- attributed to working in an unfamiliar role -- and when I talked to him in ST the following year he was very confident that he'd moved past them, having developed a new back strengthening regimen. 

I don't have to find anything. Next time you speak with him, ask him if he has ever said to the media, he had occasional back issues in the minors. 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2019 by howieramone2

[Nick Nelson]

 

I don't have to find anything. Next time you speak with him, ask him if he has ever said to the media, he had occasional back issues in the minors. 

Easy enough to find this stuff with a quick search.

 

"May's back problems began last year when he was moved to relief in the second half of the season. He was placed on the 15-day disabled list three times this season with lower-back stiffness, despite his efforts to stay healthy with regular visits to the chiropractor, yoga and pilates."

 

So, no. There is no evidence that he was bothered by this in the minors or at any time before abruptly switching roles. And they eventually diagnosed it as a stress fracture which by all accounts is fully healed. 

[SomeGuy]

 

Personally, I got nervous every time I watched Sano run last year. That leg never looked right and was in bad shape at season's end. If it continues to impede his hitting, or forces him to move away from third base, it torpedoes his value. 

This sounds like hindsite.  Statcast has him at the exact same Sprint Speed as 2017, 6 Twins positional players were below him 2018. 

 

Considering a move to 1st or DH has been in the cards for a long time, I don't think it torpedoes his value to move away from 3rd.  Especially since he has never been (and never will be) an asset at 3rd base defensively.  Plus we have no long term option at either 1st or DH.

Edited January 2, 2019 by SomeGuy

[jorgenswest]

Sano at 3B is critical to the Twins success this year. I don’t think there is an alternative in the organization that would be anything other than replacement level at 3B.

[TheLeviathan]

Sano at 3B is critical to the Twins success this year. I don’t think there is an alternative in the organization that would be anything other than replacement level at 3B.

This was going to be my first argument against Nick's inevitable Buxton argument. Sano's value should be higher for this reason. We are starting Adrianza if he goes down. That drop off is far steeper.

[Nick Nelson]

 

This was going to be my first argument against Nick's inevitable Buxton argument. Sano's value should be higher for this reason. We are starting Adrianza if he goes down. That drop off is far steeper.

Sano since the 2017 ASB: .210/.291/.370 in 437 PA
Adrianza's since 2017: .256/.309/.380 in 552 PA (didn't feel like doing manual calculations for post-break split in '17)

 

 

[jorgenswest]

Sano since the 2017 ASB: .210/.291/.370 in 437 PA

Adrianza's since 2017: .256/.309/.380 in 552 PA (didn't feel like doing manual calculations for post-break split in '17)

 

To project forward I think you would be better off capturing a bigger sample. Most would look back at least three years. There is too much variability in slash stats due to balls in play and injury. That natural variation makes it appear there is a trend when it is more likely that the skill level has not changed.

[Nick Nelson]

In general, yes, I agree. But with Sano I think there's more than natural variation at play. He hasn't been the same hitter since the first half of 2017. Either pitchers have figured out how to beat him, or his approach/swing has fundamentally deteriorated, or the injuries have really been taking a toll. Either way, I don't think you can take for granted that it's going to turn around in short order. (Though, to reiterate: I am optimistic. This ranking is only a reflection of visible trends.)

[TheLeviathan]

In general, yes, I agree. But with Sano I think there's more than natural variation at play. He hasn't been the same hitter since the first half of 2017. Either pitchers have figured out how to beat him, or his approach/swing has fundamentally deteriorated, or the injuries have really been taking a toll. Either way, I don't think you can take for granted that it's going to turn around in short order. (Though, to reiterate: I am optimistic. This ranking is only a reflection of visible trends.)

And you could swap the name Buxton for Sano and this paragraph still stands. At this point your only real defense is your subjective feelings. Which is fine, but the difference isn't very evidence based.

Edited January 2, 2019 by TheLeviathan

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

And you could swap the name Buxton for Sano and this paragraph still stands. At this point your only real defense is your subjective feelings. Which is fine, but the difference isn't very evidence based.

For the nth time, yes this is a subjective ranking.

 

Also, Buxton and Sano are qualitatively different individuals— check that, they are basically opposites. There’s no internal contradiction in people who remain optimistic about Buxton and somewhat resigned to Sano, at this point.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Sano since the 2017 ASB: .210/.291/.370 in 437 PA
Adrianza's since 2017: .256/.309/.380 in 552 PA (didn't feel like doing manual calculations for post-break split in '17)

 

If Adrianza or Torreyas is our 3B for any extended period in 2019 we are in trouble. That is the point of Sano's importance. It is of equal importance as Buxton. This offense can't afford a .250, or less,  non power hitting utility player manning 3B.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If Adrianza or Torreyas is our 3B for any extended period in 2019 we are in trouble. That is the point of Sano's importance. It is of equal importance as Buxton. This offense can't afford a .250, or less,  non power hitting utility player manning 3B.

You probably see Buxton and Sano as somewhat similar players. That’s understandable given how they came up through the system as top prospects. Others will disagree, but I think the 2019 Twins can survive another disappointing Sano season. But, not another disappointing Buxton season.

[TheLeviathan]

 

For the nth time, yes this is a subjective ranking.

Also, Buxton and Sano are qualitatively different individuals— check that, they are basically opposites. There’s no internal contradiction in people who remain optimistic about Buxton and somewhat resigned to Sano, at this point.

 

I acknowledged that.  But they are not basically opposites - their problem is the same: We are past 1,000 ABs and neither has established themselves as a core contributor.  And the primary reason for both is disappointing offensive performances relative to expectations. 

 

Who you choose to be optimistic about is totally up to you.  But if either of them do attain something closer to their expectations, they become immensely valuable to this club.  If they don't, they become immensely harmful.  And there are worrisome red flags for both.  And it's a bit of an unfair (ridiculous really) argument to point to Buxton kicking ass in AAA versus Sano in MLB.  I mean, hell, if Sano had rested his legs the rest of the season he walked out of AAA with an .895 OPS too.  I don't hear much crowing about that.  (With good reason, it's silly)  In fact, Nick called his .895 "underwhelming" yet has no problem basking in Buxton's almost identical production.

 

There is no Eddie Escobar to mask Sano's absence this year.  If he can't man 3B, it will hurt.  There is no Jake Cave lying in wait.

Edited January 3, 2019 by TheLeviathan

[Nick Nelson]

 

Who you choose to be optimistic about is totally up to you.  But if either of them do attain something closer to their expectations, they become immensely valuable to this club.  If they don't, they become immensely harmful.  And there are worrisome red flags for both.  And it's a bit of an unfair (ridiculous really) argument to point to Buxton kicking ass in AAA versus Sano in MLB.  I mean, hell, if Sano had rested his legs the rest of the season he walked out of AAA with an .895 OPS too.  I don't hear much crowing about that.  (With good reason, it's silly)  In fact, Nick called his .895 "underwhelming" yet has no problem basking in Buxton's almost identical production.

Byron Buxton doesn't need to be a great hitter to be a considerably valuable player. When healthy Buxton is – one can very reasonably argue – THE most valuable defender AND base runner in all of Major League Baseball. The measuring stick with these two is not at all the same. 

 

Anyway, the point was not to compare their performances in the minor leagues. The point was that, at the end of the season, Buxton was raking and healthy (then given an extra month to heal up even more). Sano was struggling at the plate, and then he significantly re-injured the leg that had bothered him all year. And that is where we stand at this present moment in time.

 

One guy carried a slump and a worrisome injury into the offseason. The other, who is a fundamentally better player, was healthy and hitting as well as he had all year. This assessment is being made as of the end of the 2018 season.

 

You're welcome to disagree but don't say there's no evidence, because it's there and it's been clearly explained. 

 

(Also, ill-gotten as some might think it is, the extra year of team control at age 28 with Buxton is immensely valuable in this discussion.)

[TheLeviathan]

 

One guy carried a slump and a worrisome injury into the offseason. The other, who is a fundamentally better player, was healthy and hitting as well as he had all year. This assessment is being made as of the end of the 2018 season.

 

You're trying to compare AAA and MLB results on equal footing.  That's not a fair comparison. And when the footing is equal, you've gone so far as to call Buxton's 900ish OPS "raking" in AAA and Sano's 900ish OPS in AAA as "underwhelming".  Slice it any way you want, if that's your evidence, it's pretty clear you're using it in a very unjustified way.  The bias there is glaring.

 

And, to date, you've tried to argue your assessment is also based on future value as well as present value, to which the Twins are also staking a lot of their success on Miguel Sano.  Plan B for Sano is not apparent and depth at the position should weigh into the player's value IMO.  Especially given how highly your list seems to be about Jake Cave.  Yes, Buxton's option year counts in his favor, but Cave vs. ???? should count heavily for Sano too.

Edited January 3, 2019 by TheLeviathan

[jorgenswest]

Sano at 3B is critical to the Twins success this year. I don’t think there is an alternative in the organization that would be anything other than replacement level at 3B.

Editing my comment above...

 

Willians Astudillo is an alternative that could match Sano’s defense and provide some offense at 3B.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Editing my comment above...

Willians Astudillo is an alternative that could match Sano’s defense and provide some offense at 3B.

Correct. I also suspect Schoop would be an option there if things were to go awry with Sano.

 

The Twins can replace Buxton with a body in CF, yes. They can't replace what he brings to the table though. Not even close. 

[Battle ur tail off]

I don't feel like Sano being so far down on this list is fair. Especially when we all know you are gonna put a couple A ball players 1 and 2 who have just as much, if not more of a chance of washing out. Sano is top 5 IMO on this team. They will still rise and fall with Sano and Buxton the next few years. 

 

One difference between Buxton and Sano's hitting that I have seen with my eyes. When Sano came up, he was patient, didn't swing at junk, walked a bunch, then hammered pitches when he was thrown hittable strikes. He lost that somewhere along the line, but his OBP and walk rate in the minors suggest he is capable of that again. 

 

Buxton never had any patience(at the ML level anyway) looked lost, guessed almost 100% of the time. He is still looks like a high school hitter. No polish whatsoever. 

 

I feel like Sano will be back if he can get himself in shape and his head screwed on straight. Almost seems like it is mostly mental with this guy, hopefully he has grown up. I guess I don't ever feel like Buxton will be the type of patient hitter Sano CAN be. He can still be a good hitter, but he is gonna have to do it by making good contact and using his legs.