Article: BREAKING: Nelson Cruz Agrees To Deal With Twins

[Mr. Brooks]

LOL....that is because they SPEND money. The Twins don't. They will never spend to that level to compete against these teams. The only real way to compete for this team is to build smart.

 

Ask yourself, why didn't 29 other teams want Nelson Cruz? He is still a good player, but he doesn't move the needle much.

If 29 other teams didn't want Nelson Cruz, we'd have gotten him for the league minimum.

 

29 other teams didn't want him for the same price we did. But, that's true of any negotiable item.

 

By your logic, 29 teams won't want Harper, 29 teams won't want Machado, and nobody on the planet wanted any of our currently owned homes.

[Kelly Vance]

 

LOL....that is because they SPEND money.  The Twins don't.  They will never spend to that level to compete against these teams.  The only real way to compete for this team is to build smart.  

 

Ask yourself, why didn't 29 other teams want Nelson Cruz? He is still a good player, but he doesn't move the needle much.

Cruz had a few teams chasing him.  So saying 29 teams didn't want him is just spin. And even of those who dropped out of the bidding, they may have decided to go a different way for a different reason. You have no legitimate basis to say those teams didn't want him. 

Edited December 31, 2018 by Kelly Vance

[mlhouse]

 

Look,

 

 

Nobody "gives" a guy a shot at the Show. You earn your shot, mostly by paying your dues and showing you are ready for the next level. It has always been that way. 

 

Sorry, this concept of "earning" it is idiotic.  If earning a "shot at the show" is how it works why didn't the Twins give lefty David Hurlbut a "shot at the show"?    He was a 28th round draft pick in 2011 out of Cal St Fullerton.  He worked his way through the Twins system, having sub-3 ERAs in A and A+ levels,  3.54 ERA in AA, and solid stints in Rochester over parts of 3 seasons.   

 

If getting a shot is earned, why did the Twins just send back Romero and AStidulio after his first stint in the majors?  What has Matt Belisle done to "earn" the appearances the Twins gave him?   

 

Romero, Gonsalves, Hurlbut, Curtiss, Reed, etc have all been succesful in the minor leagues and the Twins to date haven't given them much of a shot.  What else do they have to do?

 

Instead, you have to commit to the youthful talent of your organization, and pretending these guys have to "earn" it is exactly why we are in our 8th year of rebuilding with more questions than answers.  

[Squirrel]

Moderator warning: stop your bickering.

[mlhouse]

 

Cruz had a few teams chasing him.  So saying 29 teams didn't want him is just spin. And even of those who dropped out of the bidding, they may have decided to go a different way for a different reason. You have no legitimate basis to say those teams didn't want him. 

 

1.  Because of his defensive liabilities, half of the league has limited interest.

 

2.  I heard the Astros and Tampa made offers, but the Twins offer was significantly better.  Considering that his year one salary is, for modern times, not all that much and the second year is a team option with a trivial buy out, whatever was being discussed with other teams could not have been a good offer.  If Houston is anywhere in the ball park, he signs there and probably the same for Tampa (both states with no state income tax btw).

 

3.  While Cruz was going to get signed somewhere because teams need power hitters, I think the interest was more limited because of Cruz's 2018 first half/second half splits.  His OPS+ for the first half of the season was 146, but declined to 113 in the 2nd half.  Cruz was down in every statistical measurement.

 

4.  Of course, a OPS+ of 113 would be 2nd amongst current Twins, trailing only Eddie Rosario's 115 from last season.

 

5.  Hopefully, Cruz will have a good season, but he will not be in a lineup that has the types of hitters that Seattle did.  Last season, Seattle won 89 games with Cruz hitting 37 home runs and having an OPS of .850.  But, Seattle ahd 6 hitters with at least 290 plate appearances with OPS > 100 last season.  The Twins had 6, but 2 of those are no longer in the lineup and the Twins do not have comparable players to Robinson Cano and Mitch Hangier.

 

6.  ASk yourself, why would a team that won 89 games in 2018 with arguably a much better lineup than the Twins not be interested in a productive AND POPULAR player returning on a very team friendly contract?  

[Dman]

You are missing hte point of the term "quickly".  You need to give these guys time at the MLB level.   That is why you need to move quickly to get them up to the majors when you are rebuilding.  This gives you time to evaluate.  Jim Eisenreich did not work out.  Lenny Faedo did not work out.  But Puckett and Gagne did.  If you move Eisenreich and Faedo conservatively and stepwise through the system like we do now, you simply do not find out soon enough.

 

The process for rebuilding a team like Minnesota is bring up the absolute best prospect you have:  Faedo and Eisenreich, as well as Gaetti, Brunansky, Hrbek, Laudner, Bush,Viola, Havens, Engle, Tuefel.  Find which ones can play.  WOrk through their growing pains (102 losses in 1982, 92 losses in 1984).   Some do not work out:  Faedo, Eisenreich, Havens, Engle.  Then you bring in the replacements:  Puckett, Gagne, Larkin.  And if you have a solid group of players they will develop.  Then, you fill in the gaps that your system could not:   Dan Gladden, Jeff Reardon, Juan Berenger, Bert Blyleven (in 1987) and Chili Davis, Brian Harper, and Jack Morris in 1991 amongst others.  

 

What doesn't work is if the player isn't good enough. Then 10 years of the minors simply isn't going to solve anything.  This is the point you are missing.

 

The problem is it just isn't that easy to know what players to keep or discard. Are most first graders ready for third or fourth grade?. No. They need to build skill sets to be ready for the next level. Sure every now and then you get genius but it is rare. Look at Gordon as an example he had a 900 OPS in AAA. In your scenario he starts is ready for MLB but we know that he can't even handle AAA. Also you completely ignore service time issues. If it takes two to three years for them to figure out MLB than you wasted valuable service time. If you give up too soon then you run the possibility of an Aaron Hicks scenario. There is more to these decisions than you are allowing for.

[Danchat]

 

6.ASk yourself, why would a team that won 89 games in 2018 with arguably a much better lineup than the Twins not be interested in a productive AND POPULAR player returning on a very team friendly contract?

Because said team is going through a dramatic rebuilding phase? Have you seen all the talent they've traded? Plus, there's no guarantee they'd get him on a team friendly contract.

[jsteve96]

 

1.  The minor league system is exactly the same as it was in 1982 as it is today.  THis claim that it is different cannot be supported by any fact.  Jumping a guy from A ball to the majors is the same today as it was then.  

 

Tell me about the pitchers who threw 100 in 1982. 

[mlhouse]

 

The problem is it just isn't that easy to know what players to keep or discard. Are most first graders ready for third or fourth grade?. No. They need to build skill sets to be ready for the next level. Sure every now and then you get genius but it is rare. Look at Gordon as an example he had a 900 OPS in AAA. In your scenario he starts is ready for MLB but we know that he can't even handle AAA. Also you completely ignore service time issues. If it takes two to three years for them to figure out MLB than you wasted valuable service time. If you give up too soon then you run the possibility of an Aaron Hicks scenario. There is more to these decisions than you are allowing for.

 

Again, that isn't my point or my problem.  I ASSUME that the players I bring up aren't ready to "handle" the major leagues.  None of the Twins players brought up in 1982, the core of the 87 World Series Champs, were ready then either.  They lost 102 games.

 

As far as "service time", the Twins would apparently rather their players fail than have to pay them.  If you bring the players up a year or two early and they don't play well, but then turn into great players and now you have to pay them, so what.  I would rather have the great players than push them two more years in the minors THEN have to go through the same adjustment at the major league level.

 

Hicks is a great example, actually, of everything I am speaking of.  You bring the players up early, have patience with them as they develop and let them work through their mistakes.   You have a manger and staff skilled and patient enough to work with the young players.  

 

The Twins did none of that.   Hicks was 23 when he made his debut so he certainly wasn't "rushed".  But then, the Twins had Ron Gardenhire as a manager and he simply could not tolerate workign with the young players.  He was just the opposite of what the Twins from 2011 on needed, yet they kept him in the job for 4 seasons of 90+ losses.  You could see the improvement in Hicks in 2015 when Molitor took over, but by then Hicks had worn out his welcome in MN.  The fact is, in New York, Hicks' 2016 season was amongst his worst as at the major league level but they kept with him and he improved significantly the next two years.

 

One of the biggest points I will make with Aaron Hicks as an example is that the potential in Aaron Hicks was ALWAYS there.  He could have had his 2018 season earlier and in Minnesota.  The problem was Minnesota did a terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible job of developing him and other players. Couple that with very questionable draft and other personnel decisions,   that is why we are where we are.

[mlhouse]

 

Tell me about the pitchers who threw 100 in 1982. 

 

I assume that you mean the pitchers that threw for 100 innings in 1982.

 

One was Frank Viola, whom I already mentioned.  Viola was a 1981 2nd round pick who played less than a year of minor league ball.  He was 22 when he made his Twins debut.

 

Another was Brad Havens.  Havens was one of the 4 players the Twins got in the Rod Carew trade (Dave Engle, Paul Hartzell, and Ken Landreaux were the others).  He was 22 years old in 1982 but actually made a pretty decent debut in 1981 for the Twins.

 

The rest of the staff were left overs and scrubs.  Of the two left handers, Havens had the much better start of the career but I think he had arm problems in year 3.  He could get AAA hitters out, but bounced around the major leagues with multiple teams for 7 more seasons, never really getting back to the 1981/82 levels he pitched at.   Viola took 2 years to develop.  He really took off in 1984 when this group made a mini-run at contention.  A couple of mediocre years, then became Frank Viola and a true ace.

 

So, lets say they start Frank Viola in Elizabethton  in 1981 instead of AA.  I am sure he completely blows the Rookie league hitters away and like a lot of college pitchers he is moved up to A league at end of year.  He then starts 1982 in Wisconsin Rapids A level.  1983 he is in Visalia A+ and he does well enough to get promoted to AA.  Since you can never be too sure, he repeats AA in 1984 and does AAA in 1985.   He splits 1986 in AAA and the majors and in 1987 he is in the rotation full time but still developing.  The problem is in 1984, a year the modern Twins approach would ahve him in AA, he placed 6th in the AL Cy YOung voting and the modern Twins conservative approach has him just starting his adjustment to the majors the year the Twins win the World Series.  

[LaBombo]

 

I assume that you mean the pitchers that threw for 100 innings in 1982.

 

 

 

100 MPH, maybe?

 

My impression was that jsteve96 was referring to the relatively recent evolution of pitching toward harder throwers, along with the resulting shift in innings from starters to relievers.

 

My guess is that the shift means it takes starters longer to reach a given number of innings for them to be 'ready' for the majors. Relievers should then develop faster, but it probably doesn't matter as much because they tend to be sheltered from high-leverage use at the back end of a 7 or 8 man bullpen anyway

Edited December 31, 2018 by LaBombo

[Kelly Vance]

 

Sorry, this concept of "earning" it is idiotic.  If earning a "shot at the show" is how it works why didn't the Twins give lefty David Hurlbut a "shot at the show"?    He was a 28th round draft pick in 2011 out of Cal St Fullerton.  He worked his way through the Twins system, having sub-3 ERAs in A and A+ levels,  3.54 ERA in AA, and solid stints in Rochester over parts of 3 seasons.   

 

If getting a shot is earned, why did the Twins just send back Romero and AStidulio after his first stint in the majors?  What has Matt Belisle done to "earn" the appearances the Twins gave him?   

 

Romero, Gonsalves, Hurlbut, Curtiss, Reed, etc have all been succesful in the minor leagues and the Twins to date haven't given them much of a shot.  What else do they have to do?

 

Instead, you have to commit to the youthful talent of your organization, and pretending these guys have to "earn" it is exactly why we are in our 8th year of rebuilding with more questions than answers.  

Every team does it that way.  

[Dman]

 

Again, that isn't my point or my problem.  I ASSUME that the players I bring up aren't ready to "handle" the major leagues.  None of the Twins players brought up in 1982, the core of the 87 World Series Champs, were ready then either.  They lost 102 games.

 

As far as "service time", the Twins would apparently rather their players fail than have to pay them.  If you bring the players up a year or two early and they don't play well, but then turn into great players and now you have to pay them, so what.  I would rather have the great players than push them two more years in the minors THEN have to go through the same adjustment at the major league level.

 

Hicks is a great example, actually, of everything I am speaking of.  You bring the players up early, have patience with them as they develop and let them work through their mistakes.   You have a manger and staff skilled and patient enough to work with the young players.  

 

The Twins did none of that.   Hicks was 23 when he made his debut so he certainly wasn't "rushed".  But then, the Twins had Ron Gardenhire as a manager and he simply could not tolerate workign with the young players.  He was just the opposite of what the Twins from 2011 on needed, yet they kept him in the job for 4 seasons of 90+ losses.  You could see the improvement in Hicks in 2015 when Molitor took over, but by then Hicks had worn out his welcome in MN.  The fact is, in New York, Hicks' 2016 season was amongst his worst as at the major league level but they kept with him and he improved significantly the next two years.

 

One of the biggest points I will make with Aaron Hicks as an example is that the potential in Aaron Hicks was ALWAYS there.  He could have had his 2018 season earlier and in Minnesota.  The problem was Minnesota did a terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible job of developing him and other players. Couple that with very questionable draft and other personnel decisions,   that is why we are where we are.

 

While I can agree with you on Hicks to a degree (i.e. he was mismanaged and it got so bad he almost quite baseball so he absolutely needed a change of scenery).  I still can't buy in to the play them before they are ready routine.  I mean some teams occasionally tear everything down and have little recourse but to bring up young guys I think the Pirates have done that to a degree a couple of times in the past and Houston  and Royals a while back to a degree as well.  Thing is it doesn't always work and if you miss then you increase your rebuild time significantly.  The Royals took a long time and the Pirates never really have made it.  Houston is the leading example but when you look at the Royals and Houston it was really trades and Free Agency that put them over the top.

 

First your farm team just isn't going to have 12- 18 guys that are ready for MLB at the same time.  Second ownership needs to turn a profit and that is hard to do when your team is garbage.  Third if you eat up service time and never find a core you are in perpetual rebuild with fewer and fewer assets because you brought your best guys up early and burned them.

 

Yeah I get it the Twins got lucky with Hrbek et all and baseball gods were kind as on paper they weren't the best team in 87 they were better in 91 but again other teams were arguably better on paper.  The Twins found another core in the 2000's with Hunter, Mauer, Santana and the great Morneu.  They won a lot of titles but never could move beyond that as they just didn't have the talent.  They were a good trade or two and maybe a FA away from really competing but they didn't get it done.

 

Good teams are a mix of young players and veterans and good moves and a little baseball god mojo to make it to the next level.  Young guys are important but its more than that.  Look at any team that has won the world series and while they did so with a core most didn't bring up more than a handful of players who they thought were ready early.  Very few teams do it because it is too risky when they can gain experience in AAA and once the skill set is proven then they are brought up.  Much less risk and much less waste when it comes to service time.

 

The Twins thought they had a young core in Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Kepler, Rosario and Polanco but so far it hasn't worked for them.  They are already trying to do what you are saying they should by promoting early but so far it hasn't worked. Maybe this year is the year everyone breaks through and if they do, do we still bring up Graterol and Lewis and Kiroloff?  They better be ready to hit the ground running as the clock starts ticking and they will hold the team back until they figure things out or maybe like Hicks their failures will get so ingrained they will want to quit altogether.

 

I think you are partially right but not completely.  You can promote guys who are ready but they need to earn it.  If a nineteen year old can hit AAA pitching bring him up but IMO he has to prove his skills can handle the highest levels in MILB before I want that guys in the Majors.

[AlwaysinModeration]

This is an interesting discussion about how to develop both players successfully and, ultimately, a successful team.

 

For developing players, I don’t think there is any clearcut best path. Some players probably could make it in the majors earlier. Some need more development time than they are given. There are trade-offs in both scenarios, and risk in both. If you have a precocious player that can make it to the majors by 20, and thrives, great. But then he’s a free agent at 26 and will likely play his prime years elsewhere. Or, if he struggles at 20, then you start to lose service time. If you have a player who needs to learn at each level, including majors, you are going to suffer losses as a result of that. Hicks was an extreme example of this. We may be seeing this play out with Buxton and Sano. Maybe Kepler too.

 

What I want from a front office is an effort to put together the best possible lineup from top to bottom. For a team that won’t be chasing all of the biggest free agents, this means building as deep a farm system as possible. Prospects rise and fall with a lot of fluidity. For every handful of prospects that have potential, maybe one of them turns into something special. Even for those that are something special, it still may require signicant learning at the major league level.

 

At CF, the path to having the best possible player at that position is giving a chance to Buxton to reach his full potential. It might happen in 2019, 2020, 2021, or never. But he still represents the best chance for the Twins at fielding a superstar level center fielder.

 

The same exact thinking goes with Sano for third base.

 

As for DH, Cruz represents the best possible bat they could put in that position of their lineup for 2019, and maybe even 2020 too. I’m totally onboard with that move.

 

To me, 2018 was a “take your lumps” year for the long-term benefit of the team. It resulted in a lost season, that allowed the team to part ways with Molitor, and bring in new, young coaching staff, including Baldelli and Wes Johnson. The team won 78 games, and is going to see strides forward this year from Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Romero, Gonsalves, and maybe Berrios again. They have added players that should improve production at three positions (DH, 2B, 1B). They have a deep system on top of that. And the offseason isn’t done, so we could see some bullpens arms added as well.

 

I’m onboard with this front office’s approach.

[mlhouse]

 

100 MPH, maybe?

 

My impression was that jsteve96 was referring to the relatively recent evolution of pitching toward harder throwers, along with the resulting shift in innings from starters to relievers.

 

My guess is that the shift means it takes starters longer to reach a given number of innings for them to be 'ready' for the majors. Relievers should then develop faster, but it probably doesn't matter as much because they tend to be sheltered from high-leverage use at the back end of a 7 or 8 man bullpen anyway

 

Everything is relative.   Hitters are bigger and stronger too.

[mlhouse]

 

  Thing is it doesn't always work and if you miss then you increase your rebuild time significantly.  

 

Duh....the problem for Minnesota is that they really have no other recourse to building a team. While Minneapolis/St Paul isn't necessarily a "small" market, it is a 4 major franchise market/state with the least commitment to sports. 

 

One example I use to show how Minnesota lacks a commitment to sports is to look at the D-1 (non-hockey) sports programs in the state.  Minnesota has exactly ONE D-1 football and exactly ONE D-1 basketball programs int he state.  Iowa has 2 D-1 football programs.  Indiana has 4. Mississippi 3.   They have even more D-1 basketball programs while we still have the one.......   This isn't just limited to amateur sports.  Local revenues, particularly broadcasting revenues, for the MN professional sports have always lagged markets of similar size and even smaller.   

 

So, this limits our ownership and their desire to spend money to build teams.  The Twins organization is cheap, cheap, cheap to the core.  I have a friend who's father in law worked for the Twins in a very high capacity.   His peers around the league made fun of him because the Twins made their employees, even at his level, share hotel rooms when on the road and they have to fly coach (I live in Ft Myers and one time I was on a Sun Country coach flight and was 2 rows behind Terry Ryan and Bill Smith. The Twins ownership is cheap, cheap, cheap.)

 

 

The Minnesota Twins are very unlikely to ever:

 

1.   Sign a top level free agent  ;

2.   Trade for a highly compensated veteran player  or ;

3.   Even trade a high level prospect for a veteran player.

 

Any truly competitive team the Twins will field in the modern free agency era is going to be built on a core of internally developed prospects or young players developed by the team acquired by trades or other sources.   

 

WHen the Twins do these elements right, they could well have success as the 87 and 91 World Champions and the 2002-2010 era that had 6 playoff appearances in nine years (albeit, brief playoff appearances).  

 

But, this course is a hard road to follow and if all of the elements do not fall in line, the team will not be competitive and that is why success has been fleeting for this organization.  Putzing around with lower end free agents will only brign mediocrity and just delay the development you need to do to make a competitive team in MInnesota.

 

If I run the team, Royce Lewis is my starting shortstop from Day 1 ofthe 2019 season.  Alex Kiriloff is my starting RF.   Romero and Gonsalves are in the rotation.  Nick Gordon is my starting 2B.  Brent Rooker will play some LF, RF, 1B, and DH enough to get 400+ plate appearnces.  Luis Arraez will play a utility role to get 300+ plate appearances.  Willians Astudilio will split the catching with Garver, as well as play some utility role (and I would have a game scheduled with PR where he will play all 9 positions).  

 

A huge piece of the puzzle will be figuring out how to fit the carry over players of the previous "prospect" group:  Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco but they have to be given a lot of opportunity to play.

 

Is this team "ready"?  Of course not.  It probably will lose 100+ games but by the end of the 2019 season you should start to see signigicant improvement in many of these guys, no matter how young.  That improvement should carry over into 2020 and signigicant improvement in 2021.  Add in the "tanking" impact of drafting at the top of the draft, as well as the development of the next wave of players like Blake Enlow, and maybe we can develop a competitive team and maintain it until the financial costs become significant and ownership just will not budget keeping it intact.

 

 

 

 

[Dman]

Duh....the problem for Minnesota is that they really have no other recourse to building a team. While Minneapolis/St Paul isn't necessarily a "small" market, it is a 4 major franchise market/state with the least commitment to sports. 

 

One example I use to show how Minnesota lacks a commitment to sports is to look at the D-1 (non-hockey) sports programs in the state.  Minnesota has exactly ONE D-1 football and exactly ONE D-1 basketball programs int he state.  Iowa has 2 D-1 football programs.  Indiana has 4. Mississippi 3.   They have even more D-1 basketball programs while we still have the one.......   This isn't just limited to amateur sports.  Local revenues, particularly broadcasting revenues, for the MN professional sports have always lagged markets of similar size and even smaller.   

 

So, this limits our ownership and their desire to spend money to build teams.  The Twins organization is cheap, cheap, cheap to the core.  I have a friend who's father in law worked for the Twins in a very high capacity.   His peers around the league made fun of him because the Twins made their employees, even at his level, share hotel rooms when on the road and they have to fly coach (I live in Ft Myers and one time I was on a Sun Country coach flight and was 2 rows behind Terry Ryan and Bill Smith. The Twins ownership is cheap, cheap, cheap.)

 

 

The Minnesota Twins are very unlikely to ever:

 

1.   Sign a top level free agent  ;

2.   Trade for a highly compensated veteran player  or ;

3.   Even trade a high level prospect for a veteran player.

 

Any truly competitive team the Twins will field in the modern free agency era is going to be built on a core of internally developed prospects or young players developed by the team acquired by trades or other sources.   

 

WHen the Twins do these elements right, they could well have success as the 87 and 91 World Champions and the 2002-2010 era that had 6 playoff appearances in nine years (albeit, brief playoff appearances).  

 

But, this course is a hard road to follow and if all of the elements do not fall in line, the team will not be competitive and that is why success has been fleeting for this organization.  Putzing around with lower end free agents will only brign mediocrity and just delay the development you need to do to make a competitive team in MInnesota.

 

If I run the team, Royce Lewis is my starting shortstop from Day 1 ofthe 2019 season.  Alex Kiriloff is my starting RF.   Romero and Gonsalves are in the rotation.  Nick Gordon is my starting 2B.  Brent Rooker will play some LF, RF, 1B, and DH enough to get 400+ plate appearnces.  Luis Arraez will play a utility role to get 300+ plate appearances.  Willians Astudilio will split the catching with Garver, as well as play some utility role (and I would have a game scheduled with PR where he will play all 9 positions).  

 

A huge piece of the puzzle will be figuring out how to fit the carry over players of the previous "prospect" group:  Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco but they have to be given a lot of opportunity to play.

 

Is this team "ready"?  Of course not.  It probably will lose 100+ games but by the end of the 2019 season you should start to see signigicant improvement in many of these guys, no matter how young.  That improvement should carry over into 2020 and signigicant improvement in 2021.  Add in the "tanking" impact of drafting at the top of the draft, as well as the development of the next wave of players like Blake Enlow, and maybe we can develop a competitive team and maintain it until the financial costs become significant and ownership just will not budget keeping it intact.

In a lot of ways the new front office is doing that. They are trying to find the core. Last year Lynn and Morrison kind of fall into their laps as well as Reed. So they took they took chances with more MLB ready player's but they they seemed pretty much on their way to playing a fair number of young guys.

 

I agree the Twins are highly unlikely to pay for big time Free agents. They never have before so don't see them starting now.

 

They are stock piling talent in the minors. I think our only quibble is just how hard to push the MILB talent. They are benefits to pushing a core through at the seme time. I think that has been proven over time. I just don't think there are any teams out there that would be willing to be aggressive as you think they should be.

[Danchat]

If I run the team, Royce Lewis is my starting shortstop from Day 1 ofthe 2019 season.Alex Kiriloff is my starting RF. Romero and Gonsalves are in the rotation.Nick Gordon is my starting 2B.Brent Rooker will play some LF, RF, 1B, and DH enough to get 400+ plate appearnces.Luis Arraez will play a utility role to get 300+ plate appearances.Willians Astudilio will split the catching with Garver, as well as play some utility role (and I would have a game scheduled with PR where he will play all 9 positions).

 

This doesn't seem like sarcasm... do you honestly think this would work? Kiriloff has played two seasons in the minors with zero high minors experience, the same thing with Lewis... I don't understand what you're talking about. Not only are you starting the service time clocks on many prospects far earlier than what you should be, but you're going to be fielding several players who are clearly not ready for the majors, both with their hitting and fielding abilities. Do you really think it would be a great idea to play Gordon, Lewis, and Kirilloff for full seasons no matter how terribly they play? What happens when Gordon hits .170 and can't stop striking out, Kiriloff can't figure out major league breaking balls, and you figure out Lewis isn't close to being ready to playing SS in the majors? Not only are you going to lose 100+ games, you're going to ensure many prospects' rookie seasons are disasters. Reminds me of what the Padres were doing a few years ago calling up guys to play straight from A+ and watching them perform awfully.

 

How about we call the prospects up when they're ready? Yeah, I know for some guys we wait longer than we should, but being rash about things can have ruinous results. Haven't we learned from fast-tracking Hicks and Buxton? 

[AlwaysinModeration]

If I run the team, Royce Lewis is my starting shortstop from Day 1 ofthe 2019 season. Alex Kiriloff is my starting RF. Romero and Gonsalves are in the rotation. Nick Gordon is my starting 2B. Brent Rooker will play some LF, RF, 1B, and DH enough to get 400+ plate appearnces. Luis Arraez will play a utility role to get 300+ plate appearances. Willians Astudilio will split the catching with Garver, as well as play some utility role (and I would have a game scheduled with PR where he will play all 9 positions).

 

A huge piece of the puzzle will be figuring out how to fit the carry over players of the previous "prospect" group: Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco but they have to be given a lot of opportunity to play.

I’m glad you aren’t running the team. I think it would be a big mistake to bring up Lewis, Kiriloff, Rooker, Gordon and Arraez now. Wasting their service time, messing with their development. What if half of their six years are spent figuring it out?

 

I agree with you about:

 

-Giving Kepler, Sano, Buxton and Polanco a lot of opportunity to play.

-Putting Romero and Gonsalves in the rotation

-Your idea of having Astudillo start all 9 positions in a game.

 

I guess my biggest point of disagreement with you is that you think that they can’t be competitive in 2019. I think they absolutely can, and Cruz, Schoop, Cron are worthwhile investments—in part to make a run this year, and in part to give the prospects more time to develop, increasing the likelihood that they produce right when they arrive.

 

(Oh, and in your scenario, I don’t see any playing time available for Rosario.)

Edited January 2, 2019 by AlwaysinModeration

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

100 MPH, maybe?

 

My impression was that jsteve96 was referring to the relatively recent evolution of pitching toward harder throwers, along with the resulting shift in innings from starters to relievers.

 

My guess is that the shift means it takes starters longer to reach a given number of innings for them to be 'ready' for the majors. Relievers should then develop faster, but it probably doesn't matter as much because they tend to be sheltered from high-leverage use at the back end of a 7 or 8 man bullpen anyway

 

Yeah, I'm a bit perplexed why people justify Hrbek in 1982 as a reason to rush guys. It was a completely different era back then. Both pitching and hitting have evolved significantly. 

[jorgenswest]

In any era the players that show the best hope of being successful rushed are going to demonstrate elite pitch recognition and management of the strike zone.

 

The best we have in numbers is strike out and walk rates but that isn’t sufficient. Pitch recognition goes both ways. Players need to lay off pitches that are not in the strike zone. They also need to demonstrate that recognition of pitches that they should barrel up and attack those pitches.

 

We only have traditional data to try to make that assessment about Hrbek. I would look for...

 

- low strike out rates

- high ISO (relative to league)

- red flag with high walk rates.

 

ISO isn’t great but the best thing we might have to evaluate barrels. I would be concerned about a very high walk rate particularly when the ISO isn’t also high relative to league. I think this is an indicator that the player is not recognizing pitches they should be attacking or are simply unable to barrel the ball up. Instead of an extra base hit they may fouls that good pitch off or take that pitch only to walk later in that at bat. Aaron Hicks needed more time to recognize pitches he should attack.

 

I think a Hrbek fared well in all three. Of the current prospects I am very encouraged by Kirilloff’s ISO and strike out rates. He has 793 minor league plate appearances. Even the rushed Hrbek had 1008. Signing Cruz is not blocking Kirilloff. He needs more time but with another 300 plate appearances as solid as his first 793 I will join the group advocating for his arrival.

[Squirrel]

Yeah, I'm a bit perplexed why people justify Hrbek in 1982 as a reason to rush guys. It was a completely different era back then. Both pitching and hitting have evolved significantly.

 

What was the service time clock back then? Not to mention that it took 5 years for things to click for the young ones, plus there were a couple of timely trades and additions.

[bird]

 

Yeah, I'm a bit perplexed why people justify Hrbek in 1982 as a reason to rush guys. It was a completely different era back then. Both pitching and hitting have evolved significantly. 

 

 

Not to mention the very distinct possibility that Rooker isn't being blocked. Because he's not going to be the next Hrbek, let alone ever a Nelson Cruz even in his current declining stage.

 

Lewis and Kiriloff have a chance to zoom to the majors. They're simply that talented. I don't see reports that indicate anyone else fits into that category. We have to face the reality that most of the other top 20 positional prospects are much more likely to remind us of players like Rich Becker and Scott Stahoviak, not Kirby Puckett and Gary Gaetti.

Edited January 2, 2019 by birdwatcher

[jorgenswest]

What was the service time clock back then? Not to mention that it took 5 years for things to click for the young ones, plus there were a couple of timely trades and additions.

Hrbek signed a 5 year extension following the 1984 season extending the team control. He would have become a free agent following the 1987 season after 6 years as a Twin.

 

Kirilloff could be on a similar path relative to age.

[mlhouse]

 

I’m glad you aren’t running the team. I think it would be a big mistake to bring up Lewis, Kiriloff, Rooker, Gordon and Arraez now. Wasting their service time, messing with their development. What if half of their six years are spent figuring it out?

I agree with you about:

-Giving Kepler, Sano, Buxton and Polanco a lot of opportunity to play.
-Putting Romero and Gonsalves in the rotation
-Your idea of having Astudillo start all 9 positions in a game.

I guess my biggest point of disagreement with you is that you think that they can’t be competitive in 2019. I think they absolutely can, and Cruz, Schoop, Cron are worthwhile investments—in part to make a run this year, and in part to give the prospects more time to develop, increasing the likelihood that they produce right when they arrive.

(Oh, and in your scenario, I don’t see any playing time available for Rosario.)

 

The Twins will not be competitive unless you call winning 85 games "competitive".  The only chance they have, and the only chance they have basically had in the past 20 years, is that we are in the weakest division in major league baseball.  The Twins teams of the early 2000's (2002-2010) were good 90+ win teams that made the playoffs but it was mostly because they were in the a non0-competitive division.  Their 6-21 playoff record demonstrates they simply were not truly competitive.

 

This team isn't anywhere close to the team of that era.

[Dman]

 

Sorry, this concept of "earning" it is idiotic.  If earning a "shot at the show" is how it works why didn't the Twins give lefty David Hurlbut a "shot at the show"?    He was a 28th round draft pick in 2011 out of Cal St Fullerton.  He worked his way through the Twins system, having sub-3 ERAs in A and A+ levels,  3.54 ERA in AA, and solid stints in Rochester over parts of 3 seasons.   

 

If getting a shot is earned, why did the Twins just send back Romero and AStidulio after his first stint in the majors?  What has Matt Belisle done to "earn" the appearances the Twins gave him?   

 

Romero, Gonsalves, Hurlbut, Curtiss, Reed, etc have all been succesful in the minor leagues and the Twins to date haven't given them much of a shot.  What else do they have to do?

 

Instead, you have to commit to the youthful talent of your organization, and pretending these guys have to "earn" it is exactly why we are in our 8th year of rebuilding with more questions than answers.  

 

But if this is such a great strategy why don't all MLB teams do it?  In fact most all MLB teams seem more concerned about getting as much peak performance during a players controllable years as possible. Why did the Cubs not start Bryant his Rookie year but instead at AAA so his clock would start later?  Why haven't the White Sox started Jiminez yet?  Why aren't most of the top 100 MILB Players playing in MLB?  Why are all teams making players prove they are ready before bringing them up?  Because according to you they must be rubes for not bringing these players up as soon as they have conquered A ball.  All these teams in baseball should be moving their players along faster and yet they don't.  I think that says something about the strategy of bringing guys up before testing them at higher levels.  I think it says the greatest baseball minds don't think bringing guys up early will work well in the short or long term for the team as a whole.

[AlwaysinModeration]

The Twins officially announced the signing. What was the corresponding move?

[SF Twins Fan]

I feel like the Twins should just abandon all of the minor league teams above A ball and just have every top ranked minor leaguer come straight up to the Twins.

 

 

/Sarcasm 

[mlhouse]

 

But if this is such a great strategy why don't all MLB teams do it?  In fact most all MLB teams seem more concerned about getting as much peak performance during a players controllable years as possible. Why did the Cubs not start Bryant his Rookie year but instead at AAA so his clock would start later?  Why haven't the White Sox started Jiminez yet?  Why aren't most of the top 100 MILB Players playing in MLB?  Why are all teams making players prove they are ready before bringing them up?  Because according to you they must be rubes for not bringing these players up as soon as they have conquered A ball.  All these teams in baseball should be moving their players along faster and yet they don't.  I think that says something about the strategy of bringing guys up before testing them at higher levels.  I think it says the greatest baseball minds don't think bringing guys up early will work well in the short or long term for the team as a whole.

 

 

1.  Other teams have other ways of acquiring talent. Teams are also in different modes.   I guess in retrospect, the Twins do too but their ownership has never spent money.

 

2.  Kris Bryant spent 1.5 years in the minors.  The other huge difference is that the Cubs were a 97 win team the Bryant's rookie season.

 

3.  I am not claiming this is a "great" strategy just the only real way of rebuilding a team with the Twins limitations to a competitive level.  A "better" strategy would be to allocate $200 million to signing free agents, use the prospects in our system to acquire high end veteran players from other teams wanting to dump their salaries, and put together an all-star team.   Think that is going to happen?????

[Dman]

 

Sorry, this concept of "earning" it is idiotic.  If earning a "shot at the show" is how it works why didn't the Twins give lefty David Hurlbut a "shot at the show"?    He was a 28th round draft pick in 2011 out of Cal St Fullerton.  He worked his way through the Twins system, having sub-3 ERAs in A and A+ levels,  3.54 ERA in AA, and solid stints in Rochester over parts of 3 seasons.   

 

If getting a shot is earned, why did the Twins just send back Romero and AStidulio after his first stint in the majors?  What has Matt Belisle done to "earn" the appearances the Twins gave him?   

 

Romero, Gonsalves, Hurlbut, Curtiss, Reed, etc have all been succesful in the minor leagues and the Twins to date haven't given them much of a shot.  What else do they have to do?

 

Instead, you have to commit to the youthful talent of your organization, and pretending these guys have to "earn" it is exactly why we are in our 8th year of rebuilding with more questions than answers.  

 

I liked David and with the numbers he had in A+ I thought he had a chance but his K9 numbers were always to low for MLB success and even in AAA his WHIP was too high to send send him out against MLB hitters.  Also he wasn't a hard thrower.  He just didn't quite earn a trip up there.  He was good but not good enough.

 

Romero started off well but then wasn't the same pitcher after a few starts.  Either he got hurt or Hitters had his stuff figured out, but whatever it was it looked like he needed to refine a few things.  He didn't pitch all that well when they sent him back down so not sure what the deal was but again if you want to stay you have to perform.  The Twins had other young pitchers to try so not sure what your problem would be with him going down.

 

Gonsalves earned his chance but control has been an issue with him in the past so my guess is that is why he was held back a bit.  Seems like the coaches were proven right as he had a WHIP of 2 in MLB.  Nobody can have that a high a WHIP and stay in MLB, nobody.

 

I like Curtis's numbers as well and they did kind of give him a quick hook but in MLB he has a high WHIP too.  There must have been something they wanted him to work on as he looks like has the stuff to make it.  IMO you might have a point here but we just don't know what the people closest to him know.  There might be good reasons he spent the majority of time in AAA.

 

Other than his first season I have never really cared for Reed.  He is too hit-able and too wild IMO and I just don't trust his stuff.  I am not surprised he hasn't gotten a call yet and no other team took him in the rule V so that should tell us something (i.e.  if he was ready, a MLB team would have grabbed him).

 

Belisle is a mystery to pretty much everyone on this board.  My understanding was the club house was a bit of mess and the FO wanted a veteran to help right the ship so to speak.  Not sure if that is true but it seems the only logical explanation for why they wanted him back.