Article: The Twins Should Extend Odorizzi, Not Gibson

[nicksaviking]

 

As I mentioned in the post above... It may not have been as obvious as you suggest. The Padres didn't release him until August... He made 16 appearances for the Padres. 

 

I guess I kind of thought the Padres only made that move for the draft pick and figured there was no downside to seeing if magic happened with Hughes.

 

I mean no downside for them, plenty of downside for Hughes' health, which San Diego has already shown they don't much care about with the shenanigans associated with the Drew Pomeranz trade. Or was that Kimbrel? Or both? 

[Riverbrian]

I guess I kind of thought the Padres only made that move for the draft pick and figured there was no downside to seeing if magic happened with Hughes.

 

I mean no downside for them, plenty of downside for Hughes' health, which San Diego has already shown they don't much care about with the shenanigans associated with the Drew Pomeranz trade. Or was that Kimbrel? Or both?

It’s quite possible that the Padres went “What the hell... let’s see” and I believe the draft pick was the primary motivation but... I’ve been making this point and its understood by me that the Padres may not be in tune with my thinking but...

 

There is absolutely undeniable downside to wasting a roster spot on a player who doesn’t increase in value. So I’d guess that the possibility of Hughes increasing in value was why he made 16 appearances.

[yarnivek1972]

If the Padres called the Twins wouldn’t the trade have happened before Hughes was DFA? Why would they call after that?

[Doomtints]

Hughes is interesting. For all the articles that were written at the beginning about Hughes improving due to being out of the limelight/pressure in New York, in the end he ended up being statistically the same pitcher for both franchises -- with the Twins paying him a lot more cash because they started to believe their own press and gave him a huge extension.

 

So much for small markets! Maybe we need to coin the phrase "smart markets" instead.

Edited December 20, 2018 by Doomtints

[howieramone2]

 

So, in the "Romero, Mejia, and Stewart to the pen" scenario, we have those 3 plus May, Hildy, Reed, Rogers. Leaves one spot open max. Probably filled by one of 5 or 6 internal options already on the 40man.

 

So, we'd spend on one big bat and one high quality SP?

 

I don't necessarily hate that plan. 

I agree on the big bat and hope we can trade for a 2/3. IMHO Hildy pitched himself out of the opening day mix. I would spent big on a reliever with closing experience. 

[Riverbrian]

If the Padres called the Twins wouldn’t the trade have happened before Hughes was DFA? Why would they call after that?

Good question. I don’t know. Another good question. Why wouldn’t they wait for him to clear waivers. I don’t know either but they wanted a draft pick and that is the only thing I can reasonably bank on.

[howieramone2]

 

It should have been obvious to everyone that Hughes was done. If not, the FO has serious scouting issues. Serious. 

 

A team that wants to build through the draft and IFA and trading vets for 45 value prospects sold a 2nd round pick. It was all about money, money they aren't going to spend this year.

You can't spend money you don't have. We spend 9.5M on an academy in the Dominican a couple of years ago. Last off-season we spent 8.5M on renovations at Target Field. I believe we ate 2 years of Molly's salary. Anyone can say we are pocketing the money, but that doesn't make it true.

[howieramone2]

 

Hughes is interesting. For all the articles that were written at the beginning about Hughes improving due to being out of the limelight/pressure in New York, in the end he ended up being statistically the same pitcher for both franchises -- with the Twins paying him a lot more cash because they started to believe their own press and gave him a huge extension.

 

So much for small markets! Maybe we need to coin the phrase "smart markets" instead.

They gave him an extension because he had a very good year. You will notice most extensions come after good years.

[Mr. Brooks]

It doesn't have to be "satisfy ownership" directly.

 

And it's an answer that none of us will be able to provide with certainty. But I'd imagine that both the Twins and Padres have their own valuations and each have a dollar figure attached to the draft pick and this catcher the Twins got in return and the trade satisfied both teams valuations. Teams have budgets, loose or hard but budgets none the less and maybe that 6M could be something we could throw at Free Agents this year (not that they will).

 

Here's another thing to consider... Maybe the Padres called the Twins?

 

Maybe Preller called the Twins and said "Hey Thad... We got some cash to play with here and we lost a draft pick when we signed Hosmer that we'd like to get back. Would you consider trading us a draft pick if we help eat some of that Hughes money and Thad was thought to himself... well we were going to release him anyway.

 

Here's another thing to consider. It has been suggested that it was clear that Hughes was toast in spring training and that is causing the why did we wait to trade him discussion.

 

You need to consider that maybe it wasn't clear. Even after the Twins ate a portion of the remaining contract and traded him to the Padres. Hughes made 16 appearances for the Padres out of the bullpen. The trade was made May 27th... the Padres released him August 16th (August 10th was the DFA date).

 

Bottom Line: If an owner is sitting in his office demanding that a failed acquisition play at the expense of wins and losses just to avoid eating the money. I wish he'd make that public so I can file the divorce papers with certainty and move on to a different club with an owner that doesn't do that.

 

That type of pressure is going to come indirectly from the owners (not just ours but all owners) when the released player regains his value after he was thrown in the garbage. In that scenario, the money will be an issue but secondary to the larger concern about the ability of the front office to make the kind of assessments necessary. In other words fitness for the job. That kind of pressure should make any front office slow down a little before they just start throwing babies out with bath water.

This ownership demanded that the FO keep the manager. Yet people insist it's not plausible that they demand the FO get money back instead of outright releasing Hughes. Those two ideas aren't compatible.

 

And once again, you didn't directly answer my question. You laid out how it could have went down, but you still don't tell me what benefit the FO gets by saving that money.

[AlwaysinModeration]

You cannot safely make this assumption. Next offseason, those three are all free agents, with 29 other teams able to court and woo.

 

Right now, the Twins have exclusive negotiating rights with each of them, along with some actual leverage. That all disappears a year from now.

 

You are right though: they do have Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves, and Mejia – a quartet with fewer combined MLB innings than Odorizzi (and a MUCH higher combined ERA).

You are right, not safe to assume any extension can be had for any of the three. However, Gibson is a long-time organizational player (and the player rep), and the Twins invested in Pineda when he was injured, so I think both would give them consideration.

 

But even if they wind up with none of them next year, I think that Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves and Mejia (plus Thorpe and Little) are plenty enough to work on as a basis for a rotation in 2020, which could be supplemented by an extra arm via free agency.

 

My point is just that I don’t think that there is “nothing” in the cupboard for 2020. I would not be targeting an extension for Odorizzi.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Bigger Question: What is the Twins Rotation in 2020 and how do we get there.

 

Berrios

Gonsalves

Littell

Thorpe

Mejia

DeJong

Slegers

May

Romero

Stewart

Poppen

Wells

Alcala

 

Who do you really push.

 

Who is a better fit for the bullpen.

 

Can you get most of them a half season of work in 2019 at the major league level.

of that list? Berrios and maybe one more will/could be in the 2020 rotation for more than half the season. Highest likelihood is Mejia, but that whole list outside of Berrios should be 6-10 in the major league rotation for ‘20. Romero has promise but there’s talk of putting him in the pen. Several on that list will end up in the pen. Edited December 21, 2018 by Sconnie

[Riverbrian]

 

This ownership demanded that the FO keep the manager. Yet people insist it's not plausible that they demand the FO get money back instead of outright releasing Hughes. Those two ideas aren't compatible.

And once again, you didn't directly answer my question. You laid out how it could have went down, but you still don't tell me what benefit the FO gets by saving that money.

 

The ownership "demanded"? 

 

This makes it sound like he was parent demanding his kids eat Broccolli and the kids choked it down in protest.  

 

He announced it the day Terry Ryan was fired/stepped down. 

He re-affirmed it in a letter to season ticket holders (along with a pledge to pursue pitching.  )

And he was then asked about it consistently by reporters afterwards. 

 

I think it would be safer to imply that Pohlad named the 2019 Manager before he named a President of Baseball Operations and before the POBO named a GM. 

 

I won't argue that he was out of order in a stupid kind of way but... 

 

Falvey would have walked into that interview wide-eyed and well aware who is manager was going to be. Paul Molitor was going to be part of the package of a job offer that he took just like Joe Mauer was going to be his 1st baseman. He knew that as well. 

 

To answer your question... I did... but not clarified enough I guess. 

 

I don't know for certain... but 6M dollars will spend and just because you say they won't spend it doesn't mean that they wouldn't spend it.

 

It was May... not happy with the record obviously but they were also a hot streak that never came away from contention. If in contention that 6M gives them additional flexibility to maybe trade for and pay for additional help for the stretch run. 

 

If you don't have the 6M you have possibly reduced options. 

 

Every team has a budget some are hard budgets and some are loose but teams have budgets and 6M spends a lot easier than not having the 6M. 

 

The decision does not have to be mandated by ownership.

 

And if ownership is mandating that the team play a failing player and therefore creating losses because he doesn't want to eat the cash. It would make him the worst owner in Sports.

 

Do we expect owners to say "I don't care... you bought him... play him". Do you expect an owner to risk a 100 loss season and the money lost from that... season ticket revenue, parking, hot dogs, beer, jersey sales, corporate sponsorship's, advertising. Do we really expect an owner to risk all of that in pure spite over a line item in a previously agreed upon 2018 budget? 

 

 

[amjgt]

 

I agree on the big bat and hope we can trade for a 2/3. IMHO Hildy pitched himself out of the opening day mix. I would spent big on a reliever with closing experience. 

 

What do we think those realistic trade targets are?

 

Robbie Ray

Zach Grienke

Marcus Stroman (had a terrible 2018 so might come cheaply)

Trevor Williams

[diehardtwinsfan]

It's probably worth noting that all 3 of Gibson, Pineda, and Odorizzi would be eligible for QOs this offseason. If they all pitch really well, then obviously, we will be getting 3 picks, though likely not diving into the FA market. What's more likely to happen though is that at least one of them will pitch well enough to earn a QO, but not well enough to get a mega deal... at which point they accept it and are back here. That may be why the FO chooses not to extend any of them. 

 

I'm guessing that you can pencil one of these guys into the 2020 rotation without signing an extension. 

[ChrisKnutson]

Instead of extending any of Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda, why not take advantage of Dallas Keuchel’s slow market?? Because it’s starting to seem like he’s not gonna get the frontline starter money he and Boras are asking for. Besides, with Lewis and Kirilloff being clients of Mr. Boras, maybe we should start building a relationship (sucking up) with the guy.

[yarnivek1972]

of that list? Berrios and maybe one more will/could be in the 2020 rotation for more than half the season. Highest likelihood is Mejia, but that whole list outside of Berrios should be 6-10 in the major league rotation for ‘20. Romero has promise but there’s talk of putting him in the pen. Several on that list will end up in the pen.

Gonsalves, Mejia and Romero will all be 25 going in to 2020. I’m pretty sure Mejia and Romero will be out of options. You can’t leave them in the minors forever. The Twins are always going to have some inexperience on their roster, particularly the pitching staff. It is up to the development staff to get them ready. If they can’t, that’s a different problem that needs to be remedied.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Gonsalves, Mejia and Romero will all be 25 going in to 2020. I’m pretty sure Mejia and Romero will be out of options. You can’t leave them in the minors forever. The Twins are always going to have some inexperience on their roster, particularly the pitching staff. It is up to the development staff to get them ready. If they can’t, that’s a different problem that needs to be remedied.

just cuz they’re out of options doesn’t make them better than Odorizzi or Gibson

[Mr. Brooks]

The ownership "demanded"?

 

This makes it sound like he was parent demanding his kids eat Broccolli and the kids choked it down in protest.

 

He announced it the day Terry Ryan was fired/stepped down.

He re-affirmed it in a letter to season ticket holders (along with a pledge to pursue pitching. )

And he was then asked about it consistently by reporters afterwards.

 

I think it would be safer to imply that Pohlad named the 2019 Manager before he named a President of Baseball Operations and before the POBO named a GM.

 

I won't argue that he was out of order in a stupid kind of way but...

 

Falvey would have walked into that interview wide-eyed and well aware who is manager was going to be. Paul Molitor was going to be part of the package of a job offer that he took just like Joe Mauer was going to be his 1st baseman. He knew that as well.

 

To answer your question... I did... but not clarified enough I guess.

 

I don't know for certain... but 6M dollars will spend and just because you say they won't spend it doesn't mean that they wouldn't spend it.

 

It was May... not happy with the record obviously but they were also a hot streak that never came away from contention. If in contention that 6M gives them additional flexibility to maybe trade for and pay for additional help for the stretch run.

 

If you don't have the 6M you have possibly reduced options.

 

Every team has a budget some are hard budgets and some are loose but teams have budgets and 6M spends a lot easier than not having the 6M.

 

The decision does not have to be mandated by ownership.

 

And if ownership is mandating that the team play a failing player and therefore creating losses because he doesn't want to eat the cash. It would make him the worst owner in Sports.

 

Do we expect owners to say "I don't care... you bought him... play him". Do you expect an owner to risk a 100 loss season and the money lost from that... season ticket revenue, parking, hot dogs, beer, jersey sales, corporate sponsorship's, advertising. Do we really expect an owner to risk all of that in pure spite over a line item in a previously agreed upon 2018 budget?

No. What I'm saying is the owner could have said, "I understand that you can't play Hughes any longer, he's hurting the team. But, I'll ask that you try to find a team that will give salary relief before you cut him outright."

 

Purely blows my mind that people think that isn't plausible, based on what we know of this ownership.

 

The salary relief that SD is paying is for the 2019 salary, not last year's. We paid his full salary last year. So it had nothing to do with flexibility for a trade, should they have gotten into contention.

The savings was for this season, a season they, at this time (could change), don't appear set to spend anywhere close to the top of their budget.

There is only one logical reason they would do that, and it's not to benefit them.

[Riverbrian]

 

No. What I'm saying is the owner could have said, "I understand that you can't play Hughes any longer, he's hurting the team. But, I'll ask that you try to find a team that will give salary relief before you cut him outright."

Purely blows my mind that people think that isn't plausible, based on what we know of this ownership.

The salary relief that SD is paying is for the 2019 salary, not last year's. We paid his full salary last year. So it had nothing to do with flexibility for a trade, should they have gotten into contention.
The savings was for this season, a season they, at this time (could change), don't appear set to spend anywhere close to the top of their budget.
There is only one logical reason they would do that, and it's not to benefit them.

 

I could see ownership asking to salvage what they could.

 

I just can't see hanging on to him longer than necessary because ownership is too cheap. 

 

Heck, I'd ask them to salvage what they could. 

 

And it's 6 million that could be used this year... or not. You never know what you need until you need it. 

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I could see ownership asking to salvage what they could.

 

I just can't see hanging on to him longer than necessary because ownership is too cheap.

 

Heck, I'd ask them to salvage what they could.

 

And it's 6 million that could be used this year... or not. You never know what you need until you need it.

If the FO doesn't have short, mid, and long term financial projections, then, again, they are incompetent and we're screwed.

They knew if they'd need the money or not. They could still shock the world, and sign Machado or Harper. But that's highly unlikely, and it seems like they won't come close to needing that 7.2 million dollars.

[Riverbrian]

If the FO doesn't have short, mid, and long term financial projections, then, again, they are incompetent and we're screwed.

They knew if they'd need the money or not. They could still shock the world, and sign Machado or Harper. But that's highly unlikely, and it seems like they won't come close to needing that 7.2 million dollars.

Or somebody besides Machado and Harper.

 

I’m sure they have projections and I’m sure different doors of different considerations surprise them all the time. Having some extra financial flexibility is a good thing. Regardless if they spend it or not because you have the option to spend it. If you don’t have it... you don’t have the option to spend it. Even if they don’t spend it.

 

I don’t what their budget guidelines are. I don’t know if it’s a loose guideline or a hard guideline but I’m reasonably sure that the Twins won’t spend what the Red Sox are going to spend and that creates a self imposed cap. The millions they got back from Hughes May be used for whatever falls into their lap because it increases payroll flexibility no matter how much Mauer money came off the books.

 

Who knows maybe the Hughes money paid for Cron and the plan to use the Mauer money or a portion of is still available for Cruz and bullpen help.

 

I don’t know what the plan is but getting money back compared to not getting any money isn’t a bad thing.

 

The question is... what is the value of the draft pick they coughed up? I’m not going to assume the Hughes money was just acquired for the sole purpose of going into Pohlads pocket.

[IndianaTwin]

Sign them both to 3-year deals if you think they can pitch well for that time (and I think they can).

 

If they pitch well and the team stinks in either 2019 or 2020, it seems that makes them even MORE valuable as trade assets with 2.5 or 1.5 years of control. If they pitch well and some of the young guys pitch well enough so we can get along without them, same thing.

 

And if they don’t pitch well, well, trade them to the Padres!

[yarnivek1972]

just cuz they’re out of options doesn’t make them better than Odorizzi or Gibson

I don’t think I said they are or will be. However, saying they should be 6-10 in the MLB rotation in 2020 would suggest you believe they should be in AAA.That is not likely to happen because I doubt either would clear waivers in 2020, unless they get injured.

[DocBauer]

Blast me all you want to as an optimist, but isn't it possible the FO actually believes in Sano, Buxton, Keplerm Polanco, etc, as the "core"?

 

And isn't it possible they believe in Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda, along with the arms they want to feature this season, and are just waiting to make offers? Does anyone really believe they are just going to let all 3 walk?

 

I'm expecting Gibson to get a real offer. I then think one of the other two will receive an offer at some point. Holding back some money could have a real purpose in regard to the rotation.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I don’t think I said they are or will be. However, saying they should be 6-10 in the MLB rotation in 2020 would suggest you believe they should be in AAA.That is not likely to happen because I doubt either would clear waivers in 2020, unless they get injured.

if they aren’t better than alternatives then are you trying to get worse?

 

Mejia is out of options, and is a fine swing man or 5th starter or trade candidate. He should have no impact on extending either/both Gibson and Odorizzi.

 

Romero could be out of options. It sounds like he’s moving to the pen, which I think is a good move.

Edited December 24, 2018 by Sconnie

[ashbury]

Blast me all you want to as an optimist, but isn't it possible the FO actually believes in Sano, Buxton, Keplerm Polanco, etc, as the "core"?

Dunno. I'm getting a real 2012 vibe right now.

[yarnivek1972]

if they aren’t better than alternatives then are you trying to get worse?

 

Mejia is out of options, and is a fine swing man or 5th starter or trade candidate. He should have no impact on extending either/both Gibson and Odorizzi.

 

Romero could be out of options. It sounds like he’s moving to the pen, which I think is a good move.

Neither of those placements puts them 6-10 in the rotation, which is what you said their role would be. They are either in the pen or not on the roster.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Neither of those placements puts them 6-10 in the rotation, which is what you said their role would be. They are either in the pen or not on the roster.

swing man is definitionally 6th starter who does long relief until you need a 6th starter....

 

Agreed tho, in the pen or not on the roster for Mejia and Romero. The rest of that list are great in AAA/AA

[Vanimal46]

Blast me all you want to as an optimist, but isn't it possible the FO actually believes in Sano, Buxton, Keplerm Polanco, etc, as the "core"?

 

And isn't it possible they believe in Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda, along with the arms they want to feature this season, and are just waiting to make offers? Does anyone really believe they are just going to let all 3 walk?

 

I'm expecting Gibson to get a real offer. I then think one of the other two will receive an offer at some point. Holding back some money could have a real purpose in regard to the rotation.

If they believe the core is there, why aren't they supplementing them with better players? That's what Falvey believes from his interview with 1500 ESPN. Core first, supplement later. Their actions so far this winter say the opposite. They don't believe a core is in place so here we are, driving in circles with no real destination.

[DocBauer]

If they believe the core is there, why aren't they supplementing them with better players? That's what Falvey believes from his interview with 1500 ESPN. Core first, supplement later. Their actions so far this winter say the opposite. They don't believe a core is in place so here we are, driving in circles with no real destination.

I agree with you, and also disagree. Time will tell which side my opinion falls on ultimately.

 

I really like the Schoop signing, though I dislike it being just 1 year. But it also seems that was what he wanted. I also like the Cron signing, especially with need and opportunity and Rocco's familiarity with him. But I do wonder, if they had a magic 8-ball that worked, would they still have made that particular move if they knew who might be available after the fact?

 

The recent interview Souhan had with Falvey indicates there has been serious debate about adding a veteran hitter, and what it could mean for the lineup, roster, for this season and beyond. (Cruz was the bat Souhan mentioned but Falvey was general in his comments). Does that mean they WILL make a move? Nope. Personally if they did make a move, at least FA wise, I'd be torn between Cruz and Lowrie. But it's an interesting read IMO.

 

There are still some very interesting BP FA options out there. I will be shocked if there isn't at least one signing there. Allen makes so much sense it's almost ridiculous. Very little happens over the Holiday week, so we will see what happens after January 1. NOTHING happens, then I am with you 100% saying "that's it for a roster you seem to believe in?"

 

There is a difference in "standing pat" with a core you believe in vs making two moves and then sitting on your thumbs.