Article: The Twins Should Extend Odorizzi, Not Gibson

[diehardtwinsfan]

I guess the question I'd ask is what Odorizzi did differently to pitch much better down the stretch. If I were to extend Odorizzi and not Gibson, I'd want to be pretty comfortable that someone figured something out and that it's repeatable. Gibson was the much better pitcher of the two, and in a vacuum I'd rather extend the better pitcher.

 

I do think there's some merit here to extending someone. The 2019 rotation (as it stands now and baring injury) will include Berrios and presumably Mejia. May is a possibility, but that ship has sailed I suspect. I think Romero is a safe bet there as well. That's 3 spots. Perhaps two of Gonsalves, Littell, Slegers, Thrope, Graterol, Stewart, and Wells step up well enough and make this a moot point, but there's definitely some logic to having someone else locked down or we will be needing to go the FA route (and sadly, I suspect they would end up doing a 1 year deal). 

 

Of course the other side to this is that pitchers are risky. He could sign that 3 year extension and blow his elbow out this spring. 

[bird]

 

Maybe you do that. The bottom line is that given how long it took the Twins to eat Phil Hughes’ salary, it is clear Jim Pohlad doesn’t easily do that. And it’s ultimately his call, as I’m sure the Hughes decision was.

 

You're making a false assumption that Jim Pohlad makes a call about things like that. It will certainly come to his attention, but he hardly requires them to ask for his permission to make a minor call like that. If the CEO at United Properties, another Pohlad Company, reports on an expenditure to make extensive repairs to a parking ramp, this might come to the attention of his board and Jim Pohlad in a similar way that jettisoning Hughes might come to the board and him through Dave St. Peter.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I'm in the lock up Odorizzi camp, and try to lock up Gibson both for the 2-4 year range if the right deal can be struck. Today the opening day 2019 rotation appears to have beyond 2019 only Berrios.

 

By spring of 2020 odds are low that the current batch of prospects will graduate from the minors 2 or more pitchers capable of going 4+ innings that are better than Odorizzi and Gibson.

 

Odorizzi is a good baseline. Having Odorizzi as your 5th starter in 2020 means you've got 4 starters better than him. that's a better place to be than 2018 and every year prior going back to 2012.

 

Trades and free agency can get you there, but 4 rotation spots all improvements over Odorizzi without him in the sample is expensive and would take resources away from other areas of the team that also need improvement such as the bullpen.

 

[Mr. Brooks]

You're making a false assumption that Jim Pohlad makes a call about things like that. It will certainly come to his attention, but he hardly requires them to ask for his permission to make a minor call like that. If the CEO at United Properties, another Pohlad Company, reports on an expenditure to make extensive repairs to a parking ramp, this might come to the attention of his board and Jim Pohlad in a similar way that jettisoning Hughes might come to the board and him through Dave St. Peter.

Well they certainly don't appear to be using the salary savings. So, how does it benefit the FO to give up a pretty good asset (draft pick, PLUS draft pool money), with seemingly only any benefit to the Pohlad's pocketbook?

[Thrylos]

They are about the same pitcher, with Gibson getting more into the games and being better against LHB, Odorizzi striking out slightly more, being better against RHB and younger.

 

Career: Odorizzi: 4.20, FIP Gibson: 4.30
2018 vs LHB: Odorizzi: 4.54 FIP, Gibson: 4.16 FIP
2018 vs RHB: Odorizzi: 3.92 FIP, Gibson: 4.10 FIP
2018 Odorizzi: 164-1/3 IP, Gibson: 196-2/3 IP
2018 Odorizzi: 22.8 K%, Gibson: 21.7 K%
2018 Odorizzi: 12.9 K-BB%, Gibson: 12.1 K-BB%
2018 Odorizzi: 1.34 WHIP/ .290 BABIP, Gibson: 1.30/.285

 

Should the discussion be why the Twins should extend their future number 3 or 4 starter? 

 

It should not.  I would extend neither and see if I could trade either in a package for a top of the rotation pitcher.

[amjgt]

Assuming the front office wants to sign Gibby to an extension and assuming Gibby is reluctant for the reasons stated above, at what point does the Gibson team say yes?

 

4/50 seems borderline to me.

 

4/60 seems like would for sure get the job done.

[ChrisKnutson]

Instead of extending Gibby, why not trade him this offseason while his value is at it’s absolute peak (coming off good year and has one full year of controllability)? He may have turned the corner and is now entering his “prime,” but I doubt he’ll match his “breakout” 2018 again, so what’s the point of over paying for someone who won’t be worth his contract 2-3 years when we can just put that money towards extensions for cornerstone players like Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, Berrios, and Sano.

 

If Gibby really has turned the corner, should’nt he be able to bring back 2-3 quality prospects? Especially in a league that’s so deprived of starting pitching nowadays.

 

The reality is that Gibby’s more valuable to the Twins as a trade candidate rather than an extension candidate, while the opposite applies to Odorizzi. Still, if the opportunity arises where Odorizzi can be traded for a decent return, there shouldn’t be any hesitation.

 

Still, we’re gonna need replacement(s) for Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda in 2020 and beyond to bring stability to the rotation, whether that’s Gio Gonzalez, Jhoulys Chacin, Julio Teheran (my favorite), or Sonny Gray I don’t care, I just don’t wanna put the weight of the world on our young starter’s shoulders when we should be competing for the division.

[sdangus]

I am not sure they should extend either one. I will leave it up to the front office to make a decision on if they think that is smart.

As far as what would be the better option, keep in mind that Gibson is probably getting a lower arbitration figure THIS year, so he may be more amenable to working a 3 year deal to up his pay this year and add on a couple years. Oddorizzi has a pretty sweet pay rate this year as a guarantee, so he will have less to gain from signing an extention at this point, and trying to sign him to an extension this year would probably have to ever push him into a pay scale that he should not be at.

So my thought is that Gibson is the only one that they will be able to sign at a reasonable rate that is acceptable to both sides.

Of course, perhaps Michael Pineda can also be signed to an extension during the season if he looks good, so leave that as a possibility as well.

[markos]

I think there are way too many warning signs with Odorizzi to consider signing him in long term. Mostly, his success this season (particularly after June 1st) was almost entirely about the fact that he, for whatever reason, gave up home runs on fly balls well below average for his career and relative to the rest of the league. His full season HR/FB rate (8.9%) was 6th best among qualified starters, and his post-June-1st rate was 4.6%, which would have led the league by a significant amount. This is why his xFIP for the season was 4.80, why Steamer is projecting a 4.90 ERA next year, and why BP's DRA stat suggests he was actually below replacement level last year. It is rare for pitchers to have a lot of control, year-to-year, over how many of their fly balls go over the fence, and I have a hard time believing that Odorizzi just stumbled into a skill where he is now the best in baseball a suppressing home runs.

[yarnivek1972]

You're making a false assumption that Jim Pohlad makes a call about things like that. It will certainly come to his attention, but he hardly requires them to ask for his permission to make a minor call like that. If the CEO at United Properties, another Pohlad Company, reports on an expenditure to make extensive repairs to a parking ramp, this might come to the attention of his board and Jim Pohlad in a similar way that jettisoning Hughes might come to the board and him through Dave St. Peter.

Cutting Hughes was a $30 mil decision. That’s a lot even for Pohlad’s companies. I would say him giving final approval is more likely than him not. What else explains why cutting him took so long?

 

It was obvious in ST that his arm was gone. Yet, the Twins wasted a roster spot on him for 7 weeks.

 

If it took Falvine that long to evaluate Hughes, that’s actually a MUCH bigger problem. I feel pretty confident in my point of view. Do I have proof? No. Neither do you.

[S.]

 

Assuming the front office wants to sign Gibby to an extension and assuming Gibby is reluctant for the reasons stated above, at what point does the Gibson team say yes?

4/50 seems borderline to me.

4/60 seems like would for sure get the job done.

Paying Gibson 4/60 right now seems absurd to me. That's more than we paid Ervin Santana, who had a much better track record. Gibson has never put together two halfway decent seasons in a row.

Edited December 19, 2018 by S.

[Dman]

I just don't see Gibson signing an extension when he is just one year removed from having another 31 teams potentially bid for his services.  If he is good next year there is a chance he could command a four year deal.  Granted there is plenty that could go wrong for him next year as well but if there was ever a time to bet on yourself this would be the year he should.  

 

Good discussion on Odo but in the end the Twins have a lot more risk in an extension than Odo does IMO.  I agree overall he looks to be trending down not up.  Maybe he can and will duplicate last years last half numbers but that is a pretty big gamble to take IMO.  based on his second half There just isn't enough info to know how he will pitch in the future. Personally  I would wait and see on both pitchers.  Granted we don't win a lot of FA money wars but we should have money to pay for for at least one of Pineda, Gibson, or Odo if they are worthy of a big pay day.

[Rosterman]

Right now, the three are hungry. They should produce (especially Gibson) like they have never ever produced before. Of course, having a decent lineup and guys in the field would help any of them. The Twins need to take stock of what they have on the verge and on the horizon. I think they have enough. Pitch the three, trade them. If you feel the need to extend one...try to do so as the season progresses.

 

Right now I a even wary that extending any would still make it possible to trade them in the future.

 

Thus, a rebuilding team fer sure.

[Riverbrian]

Extensions are tough calls.

 

I’d try to simplify the decision as much as possible by asking one question first. Is he the best we can do? Are the numbers we project the best numbers we can get.

 

If Odorizzi projected numbers are the best we can do... it makes me shudder a little and I actually like the guy.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I guess the question I'd ask is what Odorizzi did differently to pitch much better down the stretch. If I were to extend Odorizzi and not Gibson, I'd want to be pretty comfortable that someone figured something out and that it's repeatable. Gibson was the much better pitcher of the two, and in a vacuum I'd rather extend the better pitcher.

Was he? According to most stats other than ERA, their seasons were actually quite similar.

 

 

I think there are way too many warning signs with Odorizzi to consider signing him in long term. Mostly, his success this season (particularly after June 1st) was almost entirely about the fact that he, for whatever reason, gave up home runs on fly balls well below average for his career and relative to the rest of the league. His full season HR/FB rate (8.9%) was 6th best among qualified starters, and his post-June-1st rate was 4.6%, which would have led the league by a significant amount. This is why his xFIP for the season was 4.80, why Steamer is projecting a 4.90 ERA next year, and why BP's DRA stat suggests he was actually below replacement level last year. It is rare for pitchers to have a lot of control, year-to-year, over how many of their fly balls go over the fence, and I have a hard time believing that Odorizzi just stumbled into a skill where he is now the best in baseball a suppressing home runs.

He had a 2.8% HR rate this year compared to 3.3% for his career. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

I don't think it's that unfeasible his HR/FB neutralizes somewhat and is offset by his career-high FB rate coming down a bit. In fact, I expect it.

 

I'll also add that I have confidence in the new instructors/analysts (Johnson and Hefner) to be helpful with an altogether promising specimen like Odorizzi. Especially if they aren't inhibited by him and his agent rebuking experimentation.

[bird]

 

Well they certainly don't appear to be using the salary savings. So, how does it benefit the FO to give up a pretty good asset (draft pick, PLUS draft pool money), with seemingly only any benefit to the Pohlad's pocketbook?

 

 

That roster spot was filled, was it not?

[nicksaviking]

 

Was he? According to most stats other than ERA, their seasons were actually quite similar.

 

 

 

This team has talked about being creative with the pitching staff and using the 'opener' again, but so far the only useful bullpen arms they have are Rogers and May. At this point, I think Gibson's ability to pitch beyond the 5th inning is still much more valuable than any benefit that Odorizzi can counter with.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

3. Odorizzi might have turned a corner.

One could make an argument that this is the perfect time to strike a multi-year pact with Odorizzi. He was quietly very effective in down the stretch, erasing his problematic long-ball vulnerability with only three home runs allowed over 10 starts between August and September. During that span he held opponents to a .203/.292/.318 slash line. Taking it back a step further, he surrendered just six homers in 20 starts after June 1st.

Meanwhile, Odorizzi finished with the highest strikeout rate (8.9 K/9) since his rookie year. It sure seemed like the righty figured a few things out around the middle of the summer, and if he can build upon that with new pitching coach Wes Johnson, you've got something.

 

This was the refrain when we acquired him too -- Odorizzi also finished the 2017 season strong, although it was just one month. Maybe he's just a streaky guy?

 

Edit to add: Odorizzi also had a .245 BABIP during that 10-start stretch you mention in August-September 2018, versus his career mark of .273, and he still only had a 4.40 ERA during that time. And his K rate actually went down for the season over those 10 starts.

 

That stretch, and the after June 1st stretch, looks better by FIP than by ERA or xFIP. Do we think he's really a 0.5 HR/9 pitcher now? His career mark is 1.3.

Edited December 19, 2018 by spycake

[SomeGuy]

Overall I like the trade the Twins made but I see why the Rays were willing to take such a low prospect and dump his modest salary. 

 

If we were to extend Odorizzi I would hope that the contract is short and reflects a 5th starter salary.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

No chance. He's a number four or five starter. Why pay for that? And why are we worried about money? They have less than fifty million committed past 2020. Are we trying to win, or win the efficiency prize?

Who is the "we" you are referring to? "We", the Twins' fans, have to worry about money because "we", the owner of the Twins, must and does worry about the efficient use of his money. If the owner should be chastised for trying to be cost efficient, then what do you think the chances are that "we", the  Twins fans, could persuade the 24 best Twins' active roster players to each "voluntarily" take a 10%  cut in pay and the 25th guy could "voluntarily" go to Triple A so the Twins could sign a new player for the $10,000,000 saved from the other 24 players' voluntary 10% reductions in their pay. Remember when Willie Mays said that he loved baseball so much he would play for nothing? Name one owner, GM, manager, coach, or player who "plays" for nothing. "Show me the money, Jerry...say it, show me the money!"

[markos]

 

Was he? According to most stats other than ERA, their seasons were actually quite similar.

 

 

He had a 2.8% HR rate this year compared to 3.3% for his career. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

I don't think it's that unfeasible his HR/FB neutralizes somewhat and is offset by his career-high FB rate coming down a bit. In fact, I expect it.

 

I'll also add that I have confidence in the new instructors/analysts (Johnson and Hefner) to be helpful with an altogether promising specimen like Odorizzi. Especially if they aren't inhibited by him and his agent rebuking experimentation.

I'm not exactly sure why the shrug, as that is another data point that his HR rate in 2018 was a potential outlier.

 

And I don't think you appreciate the relationship between HR/FB and FB%. If his HR/FB rate moves up to his career average (from 8.9% to 10.3%) in 2019, then he would need to drop his FB% to his career low (from 48.8% to 40.6%) in order to maintain the same number of overall home runs. If his HR/FB rate moves to league average (which he did exceed in 2016-2017), then he would basically need to become a GB pitcher to suppress HRs like he did in 2018.

 

The bottom line for me is that there is enough evidence that Odorizzi should have given up 4-6 more HRs last year than he actually did, and there is plenty of research to suggest that the lack of HRs is, more likely than not, a product of the randomness of HRs rather than any particular skill that Odorizzi now possesses. So I'm making my predictions about Odorizzi's future effectiveness based on it being just randomness. Therefore, I feel completely comfortable saying that Odorizzi had a nice 2018 that wasn't exactly backed up by his underlying peripherals, and going forward I expect him to be worse, not better, than 2018. And if he is going to be worse than he was in 2018, I have no interest in a long term extension.

Edited December 19, 2018 by markos

[DocBauer]

Healthy at only 31yo, I see Gibson as the better pitcher. I'm not knocking Odorizzi. But I dont feel he's in any sort of decline and he flat out pitches deeper and more effectively than Odorizzi. With the market swings we've seen last year and this, 3 and $36-40M might just do it. Could Gibson potentially earn more? Yes. But he could also earn less. He would be my first choice at numbers even close to what I listed.

 

As someone said, why not sign both? I dont like the trend Odorizzi has shown the past 2 seasons, but he's solid. But would he be worth more than he's making this year? How much more? Would he do 3 at $30M?

 

What really complicates the process is Pineda. Now recovered from surgery, if he pitches to most of his career numbers, he'd very likely be a better choice than Odorizzi.

[bird]

 

Cutting Hughes was a $30 mil decision. 

 

I did not realize this. I thought that was money already spent whether Hughes got moved or not.

[yarnivek1972]

I did not realize this. I thought that was money already spent whether Hughes got moved or not.

Of course it was. But the decision to cut him results in getting no return on that money. Just because you and I and fans look at the situation a certain way, doesn’t mean Jim Pohlad does. Again, what other plausible explanation is there for the delay of the decision? The only other explanation is that Falvine held out hope that Hughes could help the team. Something every objective observer dismissed in March. If that is the case, it’s a much bigger problem IMO.

[Doomtints]

I think the floors and ceilings of these two pitchers is about the same, with either of them performing in the top halves of their potential equally likely (to which I mean ... I wouldn't bet on it).

 

I don't think it matters if the Twins pick one, pick both, or pick neither. All options are rolling the dice.

Edited December 19, 2018 by Doomtints

[Lefty74]

I couldn't disagree more. Odorizzi averages just over 5 innings a start for his career which puts a tremendous strain on the bullpen. I would rather have Gibson ,who had a revelation on how to trust his stuff and rely upon his defense instead trying to be perfect. I know Gibson is older but he is a lot more capable of shutting a lineup down especially in a playoff game.

[Lefty74]

Completely agree, Gibson may be older but he seems to have figured it out. It looks like his ceiling is way higher and he may now have a new floor as well. Very bullish on Gibby, may be a mirage but I think he has a chance to be really good for the next 4-6 years.

[Mr. Brooks]

That roster spot was filled, was it not?

As it could have by simply cutting him.

Again, what benefit does the FO get by sending SD very good assets to take on some of his contract? Neither one of us have evidence, nor will we ever, but it simply defies logic that the FO would give up good assets in order to save money that they don't get to use, unless they had to too appease ownership.

[Mr. Brooks]

I did not realize this. I thought that was money already spent whether Hughes got moved or not.

Would I need my employer's permission to push a quarter million dollar dump truck off a cliff? I mean the money is already spent, whether I destroy the dump truck or not.

[TheLeviathan]

At the rate of this offseason, we should be contemplating trading Gibson.  So, yeah, but default you can't extend him.