Article: The Twins Should Extend Odorizzi, Not Gibson

[bird]

 

Would I need my employer's permission to push a quarter million dollar dump truck off a cliff? I mean the money is already spent, whether I destroy the dump truck or not.

 

Was the dump truck worthless? If so, as a CEO or board member of that business, don't waste my time telling me how you disposed of it. Oh, and hop out before it goes over the cliff. If it was worth a quarter mil, you're fired. But you're fired anyway for littering, so...

 

I agree that Falvey and his people factored in salary relief. They moved Hughes off the roster, and in retrospect, they should have done so earlier. We don't know how much hope they had in getting some performance out of him, but they didn't keep him around strictly because Jim Pohlad told them to.

 

It was a sunk cost. As a businessperson, if you have an asset that impedes the efficacy of your business, you discard it in favor of a producing asset. Get what you can for it. Took 'em too long, but they finally concluded that Hughes was as worthless as an old dump truck.

 

The Twins sent the 74th selection and a future cash obligation in Hughes. They got back a Venezuelan catcher named Janigson Villalobos. This may be a lopsided transaction done primarily to slough off the contract. But my only point was to push back on what I'm confident is a misinformed impression that Jim Pohlad was responsible for the decision to keep him around and the decision to ship him off. He's not running a Christmas tree lot here. He's got people to handle this stuff.

 

Back to Odorrizzi: it's not extending him that's necessarily a bad move, it's rendering him illiquid by overpaying him. But again, you could extend him on a "reasonable" contract and have him become illiquid because injury erodes his value. Like what happened with Hughes.

Edited December 20, 2018 by birdwatcher

[AlwaysinModeration]

Taking a slightly different tack on this. If I recall correctly, Gibson was brought up late one season, to the point where the Twins gained an extra year of service time. If Gibson has a great year this year, he is going to set himself up for a significantly higher contract next offseason than if he were a free agent right now. So having that extra year could actually wind up helping Gibson earn a lot more money. This backs up a point I was making about Buxton. The assumption is he is getting screwed by losing a year of service time, but maybe that’s not definitive.

 

The other point I’d make is - why so much fretting about who they have have under contract for 2020? They have Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves, and Mejia. They can extend any of Gibson, Odorizzi or Pineda next offseason if need be. And there is next year’s free agency market too. I’m not too worried about filling out their rotation in 2020 right now.

 

But in answer to the question, I personally would prefer extending Gibson, a guy who the Twins have invested a lot of time in, and who finally seems to have come into his own, rather than a guy they just got, who seems worse.

[wabene]

Was he? According to most stats other than ERA, their seasons were actually quite similar.

 

 

 

 

He had a 2.8% HR rate this year compared to 3.3% for his career. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

I don't think it's that unfeasible his HR/FB neutralizes somewhat and is offset by his career-high FB rate coming down a bit. In fact, I expect it.

 

I'll also add that I have confidence in the new instructors/analysts (Johnson and Hefner) to be helpful with an altogether promising specimen like Odorizzi. Especially if they aren't inhibited by him and his agent rebuking experimentation.

Except the innings pitched. Thirty extra appearances for our beleaguered bullpen

[drivlikejehu]

Interesting sports-show debate topic, but I guess the part I don't get is why the Twins need to extend either of them. Even if the Twins want to retain Odorizzi, the odds of him turning into a #2 starter or something (and the league buying into it) are extremely small. The Twins have plenty of payroll space and could just re-sign him in free agency, paying a little more but avoiding a lot of risk. 

 

Gibson is a little trickier because I could see him getting a high-ish AAV in free agency.

[Nick Nelson]

 

The other point I’d make is - why so much fretting about who they have have under contract for 2020? They have Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves, and Mejia. They can extend any of Gibson, Odorizzi or Pineda next offseason if need be. 

You cannot safely make this assumption. Next offseason, those three are all free agents, with 29 other teams able to court and woo. 

 

Right now, the Twins have exclusive negotiating rights with each of them, along with some actual leverage. That all disappears a year from now. 

 

You are right though: they do have Berrios, Romero, Gonsalves, and Mejia – a quartet with fewer combined MLB innings than Odorizzi (and a MUCH higher combined ERA).

[Riverbrian]

 

Would I need my employer's permission to push a quarter million dollar dump truck off a cliff? I mean the money is already spent, whether I destroy the dump truck or not.

 

Million Bucks? That's one special dump truck. I'd like to see what else it can do besides dump things. 

 

Also... In your scenario... you are dumping a dump truck!  

 

That's like painting a paint ball or shopping for a shopping cart. 

 

That's Awesome. 

 

OK... I just had to type that... Back to the discussion. 

[Riverbrian]

Would I need my employer's permission to push a quarter million dollar dump truck off a cliff? I mean the money is already spent, whether I destroy the dump truck or not.

In all seriousness.

 

What Yarn and you are suggesting is a horrible horrifying thought.

 

What you are both describing is dysfunction and an extreme form of it.

 

Pohlad should know by now that mistakes are going to be made. And in any other business, mistakes are going to be made. When you extend someone or sign someone to a free agent contract there are risks involved. Signing Hughes to an extension was a mistake... to keep trotting him out there while he is getting lit up like a X-mas tree is a mistake on top of that mistake and that will kill a business. That roster spot he occupies will keep you from giving the roster spot to someone else who could actually increase in value.

 

Bird is right... This couldn't be a Pohlad thing... If it was... I'll become a Brewers fan tomorrow because our situation would be hopeless.

 

However... I'd be OK assuming that the Twins front office would need to be absolutely sure he is done before cutting their losses.

 

Cutting Hughes and eating the money wouldn't be the problem... nobody would like it but the company has to keep moving forward. The problem would be the paying Hughes all that money and having him sign with the White Sox and then becoming decent again.

 

After Hughes throws a shut out against us... That's when Pohlad calls Falvey into his office and says... that million dollar dump truck you pushed off the cliff seems to be working fine. Our competition recovered it, replaced the spark plug and they just dumped 15 cubic yards of dirt in our parking lot with it.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Million Bucks? That's one special dump truck. I'd like to see what else it can do besides dump things.

 

Also... In your scenario... you are dumping a dump truck!

 

That's like painting a paint ball or shopping for a shopping cart.

 

That's Awesome.

 

OK... I just had to type that... Back to the discussion.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caterpillar_797

 

Per Wikipedia a caterpillar 797 runs $5mil

[killertwinfan]

Why not both and why not neither?

[Riverbrian]

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caterpillar_797

Per Wikipedia a caterpillar 797 runs $5mil

 

I think Brad Wesley had one of those things in the movie Roadhouse.

 

Just in case the Double Deuce missed a payment. 

[killertwinfan]

I would vote for neither given our success with signing pitchers in this price range.  Santana, Nolasco, Hughes and Pavano.  It just seems like getting value with this talent level has been a crap shoot.  Work on developing your own pitching. Focus on guys you can control and when you get a guy like Berrios try to extend him, or trade him for more talent.  The Twins have been playing without pitching for a long time . They should be good at it by now.

[nicksaviking]

I think Brad Wesley had one of those things in the movie Roadhouse.

 

Just in case the Double Deuce missed a payment.

 

Good luck with that.

[bird]

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caterpillar_797

Per Wikipedia a caterpillar 797 runs $5mil

 

 

That's the listed dealer price. Mine wasn't that much.

[amjgt]

 

Paying Gibson 4/60 right now seems absurd to me. That's more than we paid Ervin Santana, who had a much better track record. Gibson has never put together two halfway decent seasons in a row.

 

That wasn't really the question though.... Do you think Gibby would say yes to 4/50?

[howieramone2]

 

Maybe you do that. The bottom line is that given how long it took the Twins to eat Phil Hughes’ salary, it is clear Jim Pohlad doesn’t easily do that. And it’s ultimately his call, as I’m sure the Hughes decision was.

Hughes was Darvished. Hard to trade a player who's Darvished. How long did it take to eat his salary, once he was reasonably healthy? 

Edited December 20, 2018 by howieramone2

[howieramone2]

 

Not only that, they traded a valuable draft pick to do so.... Which makes no sense if you entire strategy is to build thru the draft nearly exclusively.

That 2nd round pick was not worth anything like the 7.25M we got. Also, we don't build thru the draft exclusively. For close to 10 years now, we've been one of the most successful teams in IFA. 

 

As a side note, this past year was the first time ever, there wasn't unhappiness because we didn't spent our entire allotment in the first 30 days or so.

[howieramone2]

 

I think his future is in the bullpen, maybe even as soon as this spring. He throws a lot of different pitches, but none of them are standout. His off speed stuff is basically a curve that he rarely uses because it's not good and a splitter which might be even worse.

 

His four-seamer is pretty decent despite it's low velocity though; a move to the pen could make it better. In the pen maybe he could just concentrate on FB/Slider. If the Twins want to extend him with an eye on his long-term spot being in the pen, that's OK by me. I don't really care for him to be a rotation staple going forward though so if an extension encourages that, I'd pass.

He's not going to the bullpen. He will be a starting pitcher in The Show for the next 3-4 years.

[howieramone2]

 

Then it would probably be a good idea to get the Romeros and Mejias etc into the bigs so they will feel less pressure and have more experience in 2020.

What it boils down to again is competitiveness. If you expect the Twins to contend in 2019, you probably roll with the veterans until you either fall out of contention or decide the veteran isn’t getting the job done.

If you don’t expect to contend, you need to give starts to inexperienced guys to evaluate them and plan for the future.

We are going to contend in 2019. Romero, Mejia, and Stewart are among our best 12-13 arms. Put those 3 in the pen to gain experience. They can always move to the rotation in 2020.

[yarnivek1972]

We are going to contend in 2019. Romero, Mejia, and Stewart are among our best 12-13 arms. Put those 3 in the pen to gain experience. They can always move to the rotation in 2020.

The Twins won’t contend with this lineup unless they improve about a run per game. I’m not convinced this group has that level of talent.

[Mr. Brooks]

Thanks for the responses bird and Brian, but neither one of you answered my question, at least not directly.

Why would it benefit the FO to send good assets away to save money THEY AREN'T GOING TO SPEND, when they could have simply cut him?

Either they had to, to satisfy ownership, or they are just incompetent, in which case we're in big trouble.

[Mr. Brooks]

Million Bucks? That's one special dump truck. I'd like to see what else it can do besides dump things.

 

Also... In your scenario... you are dumping a dump truck!

 

That's like painting a paint ball or shopping for a shopping cart.

 

That's Awesome.

 

OK... I just had to type that... Back to the discussion.

I said a quarter of a million.

[amjgt]

 

We are going to contend in 2019. Romero, Mejia, and Stewart are among our best 12-13 arms. Put those 3 in the pen to gain experience. They can always move to the rotation in 2020.

 

 

The Twins won’t contend with this lineup unless they improve about a run per game. I’m not convinced this group has that level of talent.

 

So, in the "Romero, Mejia, and Stewart to the pen" scenario, we have those 3 plus May, Hildy, Reed, Rogers. Leaves one spot open max. Probably filled by one of 5 or 6 internal options already on the 40man.

 

So, we'd spend on one big bat and one high quality SP?

 

I don't necessarily hate that plan. 

[Rosterman]

Bigger Question: What is the Twins Rotation in 2020 and how do we get there.

 

Berrios

Gonsalves

Littell

Thorpe

Mejia

DeJong

Slegers

May

Romero

Stewart

Poppen

Wells

Alcala

 

Who do you really push.

 

Who is a better fit for the bullpen.

 

Can you get most of them a half season of work in 2019 at the major league level.

[Doomtints]

Locking up a 31/32 year old #4 pitcher for 3-4 years is crazy talk. Gibson looked like he had things solved three years ago, too. Let someone else take on this risk. Best case is he has a good start and a contender needs someone at the trade deadline.

 

Odorizzi is younger but he's just a #3 pitcher. Big deal. Sure, sign him because you need solid #3s, but it's just not that exciting of a deal.

Edited December 20, 2018 by Doomtints

[Tomj14]

 

Locking up a 31/32 year old #4 pitcher for 3-4 years is crazy talk. Gibson looked like he had things solved three years ago, too. Let someone else take on this risk. Best case is he has a good start and a contender needs someone at the trade deadline.

 

Odorizzi is younger but he's just a #3 pitcher. Big deal. Sure, sign him because you need solid #3s, but it's just not that exciting of a deal.

Gibson has been one 15-20 best pitchers in the american league the last year in a half. A number 4 is closer to 45 - 50.

 

Plus there were only 30 pitchers in all of baseball that average over 6 innings per start, and he was 19. That seems to be a quality that is going away.

Edited December 20, 2018 by Tomj14

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Locking up a 31/32 year old #4 pitcher for 3-4 years is crazy talk. Gibson looked like he had things solved three years ago, too. Let someone else take on this risk. Best case is he has a good start and a contender needs someone at the trade deadline.

 

Odorizzi is younger but he's just a #3 pitcher. Big deal. Sure, sign him because you need solid #3s, but it's just not that exciting of a deal.

 

Not exciting, but if they can get him for years and 45 or so million, I'd go for it. Not sure this is the type of deal that would get him, but I think it's a pretty fair offer. 

Edited December 20, 2018 by Battle ur tail off

[beckmt]

The problem is here that Gibson will be for 4 years, do you want his age 34 - 35 year contracts.  I do not.  Oderizzi is 28 and 3 years will get him to 31.  That for me is doable.  

We shall see.

[Riverbrian]

 

Thanks for the responses bird and Brian, but neither one of you answered my question, at least not directly.
Why would it benefit the FO to send good assets away to save money THEY AREN'T GOING TO SPEND, when they could have simply cut him?
Either they had to, to satisfy ownership, or they are just incompetent, in which case we're in big trouble.

 

It doesn't have to be "satisfy ownership" directly.  

 

And it's an answer that none of us will be able to provide with certainty. But I'd imagine that both the Twins and Padres have their own valuations and each have a dollar figure attached to the draft pick and this catcher the Twins got in return and the trade satisfied both teams valuations. Teams have budgets, loose or hard but budgets none the less and maybe that 6M could be something we could throw at Free Agents this year (not that they will). 

 

Here's another thing to consider... Maybe the Padres called the Twins? 

 

Maybe Preller called the Twins and said "Hey Thad... We got some cash to play with here and we lost a draft pick when we signed Hosmer that we'd like to get back. Would you consider trading us a draft pick if we help eat some of that Hughes money and Thad was thought to himself... well we were going to release him anyway. 

 

Here's another thing to consider. It has been suggested that it was clear that Hughes was toast in spring training and that is causing the why did we wait to trade him discussion.

 

You need to consider that maybe it wasn't clear. Even after the Twins ate a portion of the remaining contract and traded him to the Padres. Hughes made 16 appearances for the Padres out of the bullpen. The trade was made May 27th... the Padres released him August 16th (August 10th was the DFA date). 

 

Bottom Line: If an owner is sitting in his office demanding that a failed acquisition play at the expense of wins and losses just to avoid eating the money. I wish he'd make that public so I can file the divorce papers with certainty and move on to a different club with an owner that doesn't do that. 

 

That type of pressure is going to come indirectly from the owners (not just ours but all owners) when the released player regains his value after he was thrown in the garbage. In that scenario, the money will be an issue but secondary to the larger concern about the ability of the front office to make the kind of assessments necessary. In other words fitness for the job. That kind of pressure should make any front office slow down a little before they just start throwing babies out with bath water. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

It should have been obvious to everyone that Hughes was done. If not, the FO has serious scouting issues. Serious. 

 

A team that wants to build through the draft and IFA and trading vets for 45 value prospects sold a 2nd round pick. It was all about money, money they aren't going to spend this year.

[Riverbrian]

 

It should have been obvious to everyone that Hughes was done. If not, the FO has serious scouting issues. Serious. 

 

A team that wants to build through the draft and IFA and trading vets for 45 value prospects sold a 2nd round pick. It was all about money, money they aren't going to spend this year.

 

As I mentioned in the post above... It may not have been as obvious as you suggest. The Padres didn't release him until August... He made 16 appearances for the Padres.