Article: The Twins Should Extend Odorizzi, Not Gibson

[Nick Nelson]

 

So two down years projects to be better next year by reverting to career totals that make it appear more attractive? And a turning the corner year gets the same treatment in the other direction? I'm not buying. Trending performance means a lot more to me, and I hope it does to the new manager, too.

Overrating or overvaluing recent trends is the biggest mistake a team can make with long-term decision-making IMO (haven't we learned that by now?). Odorizzi's track record speaks for itself and -- again -- his "two down years" are better than Gibson's career baseline. So you don't really need to contort any stats to make this case, you have just have to be honest and objective in your assessment.

 

The difference between the two careers is that Gibson's successful runs have been outliers, whereas the opposite has been true for Odo.

 

 

If you commit 2-3 years to a guy performing at or near replacement level, it makes it harder to replace him if/when a better choice comes along. Say the Twins sign him through 2021. And he slots in the 4/5 spot. What happens when you want to bring up a pitching prospect but have no room because your worst starter is guaranteed millions? You have to most likely send down a pitcher better than Odorizzi to make room. And that’s not how to build sustainability. You should always be looking to improve your weakest links. That’s how you get better.

Odorizzi has been worth 2+ WAR in four of the last five years. If you're worried about the Twins being overloaded with internal guys that can match or surpass that in the next 3 seasons... well... I admire your optimism. This team has ZERO starters locked in with guaranteed deals past 2019, and Odorizzi has solid fallback potential as a reliever, so I have zero concern about what you're mentioning here.

 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Nick, did you just cite being the worse pitcher in baseball the 3rd time through as a reason to extent Odorizzi? Accumulating marginal starters that are willing to open or bullpen has become a goal? 

He's a good arm. The goal is to collect good arms and maximize their positive impact. The flip side of those poor numbers during his third trip through the lineup is that he is extremely good his first two times through. 

 

The notion being stated by some here that "pitchers like Odorizzi are available to the Twins every offseason" is wild to me. You've all seen this team's outcome with free agent pitchers... right?

[SomeGuy]

I want to point out the first bullet point on the list.  Gibson is just as durable as Odorizzi so its not like Odorizzi has a leg up on him in the category. Saying Odorizzi has less innings doesn't necessarily translate to less pitches.   Gibson has only pitched one more MLB game in his career than Odorizzi, 159 to 158 (that is games started, Odorizzi has technically pitched 161 games if you count non starts).  Odorizzi is notorious for reaching his "pitch count" early in the game.

 

Since the article focuses on 2014 to 2018 and Orodizzi's 28+ games lets compare Gibson for the same stretch.  Odorizzi threw 832.2 innings in 152 games.  That is about 5.47 innings per game.  Gibson has thrown 3 less games in that stretch but 876 innings, about 5.88 innings per game.

 

EDIT:  Gibson has thrown 15,432 pitches to Odorizzi's 15,317.  Gibson has thrown 115 more pitches. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

He's a good arm. The goal is to collect good arms and maximize their positive impact. The flip side of those poor numbers during his third trip through the lineup is that he is extremely good his first two times through.

 

The notion being stated by some here that "pitchers like Odorizzi are available to the Twins every offseason" is wild to me. You've all seen this team's outcome with free agent pitchers... right?

Those outcomes come from bad decisions, and being frugal. Good pitchers are available.

 

That said, you are close to convincing me to consider your idea.

[Nick Nelson]

 

To answer Nick, if I thought he'd have an era under four for the next few years, of course I'd sign him. But if anyone thought that, it would take more than palacios to acquire him.

His career ERA is under 4 and he's still only 28 so I'm not sure what reason there would be to NOT expect that, especially if you take some steps to limit instances of letting the lineup roll over twice against him.

[yarnivek1972]

I also don't understand the logic behind sending a better player back to AAA because of some contract obligation. First of all, I'm limiting those obligations as much as possible, again especially to pitchers. But if I have to cut bait with a guy with a contract to make room for a rookie who is ready to cut his teeth, I eat the salary and trade for the best low minors prospect I can get. It's part of why I want some "flexibility" with my payroll budget.

 

So sure, sign him to a team-friendly contract through 2021 if you have minimal faith in your five B grade pitching prospects who are all on the cusp, and if you can't or don't want to sign Pineda and/or Gibson to retain their services, and if for some reason you think the FA market won't bear fruit, and if you think Graterol and Alcala and Wells and Enlow are mirages, and if you doubt anyone will part with a better solution in exchange for your surplus player assets on the 25-man or below. If all that happens, I'm cheering for Mr. Sixel's new Portland franchise in 2020.

 

Maybe you do that. The bottom line is that given how long it took the Twins to eat Phil Hughes’ salary, it is clear Jim Pohlad doesn’t easily do that. And it’s ultimately his call, as I’m sure the Hughes decision was.

[Mike Sixel]

Maybe you do that. The bottom line is that given how long it took the Twins to eat Phil Hughes’ salary, it is clear Jim Pohlad doesn’t easily do that. And it’s ultimately his call, as I’m sure the Hughes decision was.

Not only that, they traded a valuable draft pick to do so.... Which makes no sense if you entire strategy is to build thru the draft nearly exclusively.

[Mike Sixel]

His career ERA is under 4 and he's still only 28 so I'm not sure what reason there would be to NOT expect that, especially if you take some steps to limit instances of letting the lineup roll over twice against him.

I'll try again.... If teams thought this, why wasn't he traded for top prospects? Multiple.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Those outcomes come from bad decisions, and being frugal. Good pitchers are available.

That said, you are close to convincing me to consider your idea.

Good pitchers don't always want to sign here. The Twins actually have leverage in negotiating with Odorizzi, and don't have to compete with 29 other clubs (unless they wait).

 

I think some folks tend to underrate the difficulty of luring quality players here (which I believe contributed to the fast action on Cron and Schoop). It's not just about being frugal. And in any case, committing $10M to your 4th/5th SP won't prevent you from doing anything on the market.

[yarnivek1972]

He's a good arm. The goal is to collect good arms and maximize their positive impact. The flip side of those poor numbers during his third trip through the lineup is that he is extremely good his first two times through.

 

The notion being stated by some here that "pitchers like Odorizzi are available to the Twins every offseason" is wild to me. You've all seen this team's outcome with free agent pitchers... right?

Just because this team hasn’t picked good free agent pitchers, doesn’t mean they weren’t out there.

 

As Mike said, if the Rays - or any other team - thought Odorizzi was going to continue with a sub 4 ERA, it would have taken more than Palacios to get him.

 

In principle, committing to your # 4 or 5 starter long term makes zero sense to me. This is the slot you should be trying to constantly upgrade.

[yarnivek1972]

3.35, 3.69, 4.14, 4.49.

 

Exactly what leads anyone to think Odorizzi is capable of reversing this trend?

 

The smart money is an ERA of about 4.8 this year.

[Vanimal46]

The notion being stated by some here that "pitchers like Odorizzi are available to the Twins every offseason" is wild to me. You've all seen this team's outcome with free agent pitchers... right?

13 free agent pitchers with 2+ fWAR this year. And it's not a deep SP class.

[SomeGuy]

Here is an interesting trend for each pitcher.  Odorizzi is losing velocity at 28 and Gibson has gained velocity, likely due to his adjustments in the middle of 2017.

 

Odorizzi 4seam velocity + ERA

2016 - 92.50MPH   3.69 ERA

2017 - 91.91MPH   4.14  ERA

2018 -  91.45MPH   4.49  ERA

 

Gibson

2016 - 91.83MPH   5.07 ERA

2017  - 92.62MPH   5.07 ERA  (3.76 ERA in 2nd half)

2018 -  93.64MPH   3.62  ERA

[USAFChief]

Nice post, some guy. I was too lazy to do the research, but I had the same general impression.

 

Gibson is trending “younger,” Odorizzi the opposite.

 

Technically, I think Gibson hasn’t actually added velocity, but is throwing his four seamer way more, so it appears his velocity has gone up. In any case, he’s not just heaving one two seamer after another up there, and it’s made a huge difference.

 

Bottom line for me: don’t even think of extending Odorizzi first.

[bird]

 

Totally separate note that you didn't comment about... I don't buy Odorizzi as a solid sell candidate either. The Twins gave up very little to get him for 2 years. Why would anyone give the Twins value for less than 1 year of Odorizzi?

 

Good point. Generally, assets that are illiquid sell for a discount. So kudos go to the FO for signing a liquid (tradeable) asset for a bad contract discount (Palacios). 

 

I'd agree that Odo at 3/30 makes him less liquid if you don't eat the "premium" portion of the contract at the time of a sale. If his intrinsic (WAR stuff) worth is $6M and you sign him for $10M, you're asking for trouble, especially with multiple years of course.

 

That's why the team needs to be pretty comfortable with their bet that a guy like him gives you a performance advantage over a guy like, say, Thorpe or Gonsalves, and over the next FA candidate for 2020.

[jmlease1]

It's a heck of an argument. I dunno if I buy it or not, but it's a great argument and definitely some out of the box thinking. It's a really good discussion to have if you're going to continue to try and be more forward-thinking with your pitching staff, I think.

[mikelink45]

Kyle Gibson 3.9 WAR in 2018 projected by BR for 2019 10-11 4.24 1.39
Jake Odorizzi 1.5 WAR in 2019, projected by BR for 2019 8-8 4.18 1,28

 

These are not studs to build a team around, they are fillers in the back end of the rotation.  Currently we have numerous young pitchers who could reach this level.  If we sign vets I want them to move us towards the pennant and WS and not keep us at status quo.   They are essential this year, but there are a lot of pitchers who can achieve this level.

 

If inclined to extend I would say only one of them should be given the extension, which one does not matter to me.

 

To see the other projections for our pitchers go to my blog - 

https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11300-%7B%3F%7D/

 

[Tom Froemming]

Good stuff here, I hadn't really considered this. One thing I'd like to add on Gibby is he became the team's union rep after Dozier was traded. He's a leader in that clubhouse. I have to imagine other players take note of how guys like that are treated, and continuity among your clubhouse leaders could have some value.

 

How much does that actually matter? I don't know, tough to say, but I do think it is something to consider. With no Joe, no Dozier, no Escobar and an entirely new coaching staff, there's a lot of relationship building to do. Maybe Gibson can be of value in that area.

[Nick Nelson]

 

3.35, 3.69, 4.14, 4.49.

Exactly what leads anyone to think Odorizzi is capable of reversing this trend?

The smart money is an ERA of about 4.8 this year.

That seems like... over-simplistic analysis. I noted in the piece why I think Odorizzi is capable of reversing his downward trend, and has in fact already begun to do so. 

 

 

Here is an interesting trend for each pitcher.  Odorizzi is losing velocity at 28 and Gibson has gained velocity, likely due to his mechanical change in the middle of 2017.

 

Odorizzi velocity + ERA

2016 - 92.50MPH   3.69 ERA

2017 - 91.91MPH   4.14  ERA

2018 -  91.45MPH   4.49  ERA

 

Gibson

2016 - 91.83MPH   5.07 ERA

2017  - 92.62MPH   5.07 ERA  (3.76 ERA in 2nd half)

2018 -  93.64MPH   3.62  ERA

I don't think losing 1 MPH over 3 years is all that meaningful. Gibson was also "losing velocity at age 28." These things can ebb and flow. When it comes to outlooks for arms, I'll bet on the guy who's 3 years younger.

 

(Also, guess who had the higher K-rate this year -- and every year -- despite that velo disparity?)

[Nick Nelson]

 

13 free agent pitchers with 2+ fWAR this year. And it's not a deep SP class.

How many that have done it in 4 of the last 5 years? And can match Odo's youth + career ERA/WHIP/K-rate? And are willing to sign with the Twins on reasonable terms?

 

It's nice to speculate about how the Twins *could* theoretically do better but they have an opportunity to lock down a quality arm, still in his prime, at a potential bargain.

[ChrisKnutson]

3.35, 3.69, 4.14, 4.49.

Exactly what leads anyone to think Odorizzi is capable of reversing this trend?

The smart money is an ERA of about 4.8 this year.

 

This might not matter as we’re possibly losing all of Gibson, Pineda, and (maybe) Odorizzi to free agency next year, which means we’re gonna need someone, because I don’t like the idea of placing all of the pressure on Berrios, Romero, Graterol, Thorpe, Stewart, Alcala, Mejia in 2020.

 

If you’re skeptical of Odorizzi being able to turn things around, then perhaps signing Julio Teheran next offseason makes more sense, he’s one year younger, had better 2018, and has a better overall track record.

[yarnivek1972]

That seems like... over-simplistic analysis. I noted in the piece why I think Odorizzi is capable of reversing his downward trend, and has in fact already begun to do so.

 

 

I don't think losing 1 MPH over 3 years is all that meaningful. Gibson was also "losing velocity at age 28." These things can ebb and flow. When it comes to outlooks for arms, I'll bet on the guy who's 3 years younger.

 

(Also, guess who had the higher K-rate this year -- and every year -- despite that velo disparity?)

It’s a simple game. Throw ball. Hit ball. Catch ball.

 

I guess I would say a 28 year old losing velocity sure sets up red flags. I’m sure the Rays noticed. I’m sure other teams noticed. By itself, maybe not a big deal. But coupled with being a 2 time through the lineup guy and an ERA increase that has coincided with the velocity decrease it seems the only one who benefits from a long term deal is Odorizzi. What is the upside for the Twins? The long shot chance that he does a Gibson type reversal?

 

Again, you’re talking about a 3 year commitment to a guy that you SHOULD be trying to replace. That’s not how you build sustainability. It’s how you build mediocrity.

[nicksaviking]

I think his future is in the bullpen, maybe even as soon as this spring. He throws a lot of different pitches, but none of them are standout. His off speed stuff is basically a curve that he rarely uses because it's not good and a splitter which might be even worse.

 

His four-seamer is pretty decent despite it's low velocity though; a move to the pen could make it better. In the pen maybe he could just concentrate on FB/Slider. If the Twins want to extend him with an eye on his long-term spot being in the pen, that's OK by me. I don't really care for him to be a rotation staple going forward though so if an extension encourages that, I'd pass.

[yarnivek1972]

This might not matter as we’re possibly losing all of Gibson, Pineda, and (maybe) Odorizzi to free agency next year, which means we’re gonna need someone, because I don’t like the idea of placing all of the pressure on Berrios, Romero, Graterol, Thorpe, Stewart, Alcala, Mejia in 2020.If you’re skeptical of Odorizzi being able to turn things around, then perhaps signing Julio Teheran next offseason makes more sense, he’s one year younger, had better 2018, and has a better overall track record.

Then it would probably be a good idea to get the Romeros and Mejias etc into the bigs so they will feel less pressure and have more experience in 2020.

 

What it boils down to again is competitiveness. If you expect the Twins to contend in 2019, you probably roll with the veterans until you either fall out of contention or decide the veteran isn’t getting the job done.

 

If you don’t expect to contend, you need to give starts to inexperienced guys to evaluate them and plan for the future.

[Vanimal46]

How many that have done it in 4 of the last 5 years? And can match Odo's youth + career ERA/WHIP/K-rate? And are willing to sign with the Twins on reasonable terms?

 

It's nice to speculate about how the Twins *could* theoretically do better but they have an opportunity to lock down a quality arm, still in his prime, at a potential bargain.

Don't have time to do the research. I'm sure there are players like Odorizzi every off-season with a track record similar to his.

 

Willingness to sign for cheap or reasonable terms is just your opinion, man. Unless you have inside info?

Edited December 19, 2018 by Vanimal46

[Nick Nelson]

 

Don't have time to do the research. I'm sure there are players like Odorizzi every off-season with a track record similar to his.

Willingness to sign for cheap or reasonable terms is just your opinion, man. Unless you have inside info?

I'm sure you understand the difference between trying to sign someone on the open market, with their value inflated, vs one year away from the open market with their value depressed.

 

 

Again, you’re talking about a 3 year commitment to a guy that you SHOULD be trying to replace. That’s not how you build sustainability. It’s how you build mediocrity.

I don't agree they SHOULD be trying to replace Odorizzi. There is a place for a reliably 2+ WAR pitcher, on a 12/13-man pitching staff. Always. Particularly when it's an effective fly-ball pitcher who can miss bats on a team with top-tier OF defense.

 

The quest for exclusive ace-type upside seems to be blinding people. 

[SomeGuy]

 

That seems like... over-simplistic analysis. I noted in the piece why I think Odorizzi is capable of reversing his downward trend, and has in fact already begun to do so. 

 

 

I don't think losing 1 MPH over 3 years is all that meaningful. Gibson was also "losing velocity at age 28." These things can ebb and flow. When it comes to outlooks for arms, I'll bet on the guy who's 3 years younger.

 

(Also, guess who had the higher K-rate this year -- and every year -- despite that velo disparity?)

1 MPH over 2 seasons.  1/2 MPH per season.  Is that going to reverse or is he on track to be a sub 90MPH guy?  I would bet on the guy that has 2MPH on the other and is coming off a good 1.5 year stretch opposed to someone who was below average over the last 2 years and getting worse.

 

 

I am having a hard time contributing Odorizzi's struggles to "one bad year"  when it appears to be a downward trend.  FIP is increasing into the high 4, low 5 range, groundballs have decreased steadily over the last 4 seasons while flyballs have risen 4 consecutive seasons.  His 1.44 HR/9 over the last 3 seasons is 17th worst, slightly better than guys like Ricky Nolasco (1.45) and Bartolo Colon (1.57).

[Nick Nelson]

 

I'll try again.... If teams thought this, why wasn't he traded for top prospects? Multiple.

It was a weird offseason. No one wanted Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb either. But now look at them, both with long-term contracts. I'd hope the Twins aren't making decisions based entirely on group-think. 

 

[Teddy]

You make valid points on signing Odorizzi to a team-friendly extension now. I'm still in wait-and-see mode on Gibby.

[Kelly Vance]

I disagree with Nick completely. I think he got it backwards.

 

Gibby righted some things mid way through 2017. His numbers since then are far improved and there is enough of a track record to assume he is just a different pitcher now. His recent year and a half stats are what should be looked at, and his numbers from earlier years when he struggled skew his value downward.  This may be a case where stats lie and I think this article takes Gibby's current record out of context. 31 is not old for a major league pitcher. A three year extension is warranted. 

 

Odo is a #4 starter. He could be extended, sure, but he has not shown the high upside that Gibby has shown. And by 2020 there may be other guys better on the FA market by then.  What we need is to have 3 starters locked up, Berrios, Gibby and a third, going into 2020 while we see if Romero, Thorp, Gonsalves and a couple other AAA arms can push their way into the rotation. 

 

Plus Gibby is family and does a lot of stuff for the Twins off the field. He took over one promotion after Doze was dealt.