Article: Constructing Pitching Staff Will Become a Numbers Game

[Doomtints]

Last year the Twins built a pitching staff to compete with Cleveland, which worked. 

 

I have no clue what they will do this year. Building a pitching staff to compete with the AL East is off the table, and ultimately that's the only build that would matter.

Edited December 17, 2018 by Doomtints

[Mike Sixel]

 

Three reasons.

1) MLB Players are habitual creatures and most players prefer to stay if it does not cost them financially.

2) Eliminates the risk associated with injury or poor performance.

3) He just witnessed Dozier's value plummet. 

 

All good reasons. Of course, he may want to compete and play for a good/great team in the next three years. He also may get more money on the market....athletes tend to bet on themselves.

 

If he likes MN, he should sign an extension, happiness will mean more than a few extra million. If not, he should go the FA route.

[beckmt]

 

All good reasons. Of course, he may want to compete and play for a good/great team in the next three years. He also may get more money on the market....athletes tend to bet on themselves.

 

If he likes MN, he should sign an extension, happiness will mean more than a few extra million. If not, he should go the FA route.

There are some of us on this board who do not want him after 2019.  If you want him give him a QO, less of a risk and he might take the money.  He has 2 bad years for every good.

[Major League Ready]

 

True, but the Twins now have the ability to customize their personnel for the kind of staff they want to use (or, in other words, they can let the market dictate how the unit comes together). So if — as others have noted — the market for starters isn't all that strong, they might be best off loading up on relief arms and having each fifth day be a "bullpen day" if you will.

 

I like this approach for a team in their position because it helps you manage workloads more closely and gives you the opportunity for extended looks at more arms.

 

I dislike bullpen games. It's just too taxing on the BP unless the other 4 SPs provide consistent starts. Give Mejia a shot. I just don't see him as a RP and it makes no sense to cut him. I would rather give him a shot for a couple months. If he continues to exit early, use the "stacker "approach with whichever AAA guy looks ready. That would be a good way to break guys in the type of guys we have at AAA right now.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

I dislike bullpen games. It's just too taxing on the BP unless the other 4 SPs provide consistent starts. Give Mejia a shot. I just don't see him as a RP and it makes no sense to cut him. I would rather give him a shot for a couple months. If he continues to exit early, use the "stacker "approach with whichever AAA guy looks ready. That would be a good way to break guys in the type of guys we have at AAA right now.  

 

I concur on Mejia, not sure how I feel about not liking stacking. IMO, if you can't find 4 good starters, stacking makes sense, if you are trying to win or find out who might be good in a year or two....but almost no team has tried this yet. So maybe the AAA shuttle just won't work like I think it will. But, we agree on Mejia, give him a shot to start.

[Tomj14]

 

And remember, they can trade for one from surplus assets in a top 5 prospect pipeline next off-season.

I will say this holding onto prospects too long makes them way less valuable. Imagine what the Twins would have gotten in return two years ago offering Gonzo, Gordon, Jay and Stewart and what that would get them today.

 

It would be interesting to see what value the Twins perceived depth would bring back?

Slegers,Gonsalves,Romero,Mejia,Thorpe,Tylers Wells,Littel.

 

IMO Romero, Thorpe and Wells would close to headlines in a trade, and they might have to trade all three plus somehting else to get a top end rotation guy.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

* Adalberto Mejia is out of options next year. So are Matt Magill and Tyler Duffey,

 

 

According to roster resource Duffey has 1 option.

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-minnesota-twins/

I am not sure. He was optioned to start the 2016 season but return before the 20th day of the AAA season. He was optioned again at the end August. Maybe an option wasn’t used.

 

Roster Resource is correct, Duffey has an option year left. But it's because of 2015, not 2016. He spent fewer than 20 days on optional assignment in 2015, so it didn't burn an option year. (Time in the minor leagues while not on the 40-man roster doesn't count as "optional assignment", which covers all but 7 days of Duffey's time in the minors in 2015.)

 

Also, "Days on optional assignment" is calculated by the MLB regular season schedule, not the minor league schedule, so Duffey met the 20 day threshold to burn an option year in April 2016 and again in April 2018.

 

Exact same situation as Buxton -- fewer than 20 days on optional assignment in 2015, options burned in 2016 and 2018, and spent the whole season in MLB in 2017. So Buxton, like Duffey, has one option year left.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

.283/.368/.561 and .370 wOBA: Taylor Rogers's RHB opponents in away games.  He is ok in his comfort zone at home against righties, but you don't want to pitch him away against them. 

Interesting, although for 2018, that's only a sample size of 68 PA. And as Rogers improved overall during 2018, he improved in this split too -- .208 wOBA vs RHB on the road in the second half (albeit only 25 PA). His 2017 numbers in this split were better as well -- .307 wOBA (73 PA) -- although his 2016 rookie season was similar -- .367 wOBA (74 PA).

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=6,10&splitArrPitch=&position=P&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2016-03-01&endDate=2018-11-01&players=13449&filter=

[Nick Nelson]

 

Exact same situation as Buxton -- fewer than 20 days on optional assignment in 2015, options burned in 2016 and 2018, and spent the whole season in MLB in 2017. So Buxton, like Duffey, has one option year left.

Ah, good call folks. I thought I remembered something like this. Will update the article.

[jkcarew]

Not super confident that Mejia will be very good. But he's 26, left-handed, and has been pretty good in the minors. So, if 2019 is going to be a 'let's see' year, then Mejia falls solidly into the category of those that you'll want to see.

[Tomj14]

 

There are some of us on this board who do not want him after 2019.  If you want him give him a QO, less of a risk and he might take the money.  He has 2 bad years for every good.

My favorite thing about us Twins fans, Gibson is 31 was 12th in the American league in WAR for starting pitches (ESPN WAR) and probably not good enough for a .500 team.

[beckmt]

 

My favorite thing about us Twins fans, Gibson is 31 was 12th in the American league in WAR for starting pitches (ESPN WAR) and probably not good enough for a .500 team.

I am not only looking at last year, but the entire body of work.  Do not want to pay for one good year (read Phil Hughes), and have him decline after last year.  If he has another good year, maybe we pay him (I would just issue a QO).  Twins do not seem to be in the position of paying for bad production.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I am not only looking at last year, but the entire body of work.  Do not want to pay for one good year (read Phil Hughes), and have him decline after last year.  If he has another good year, maybe we pay him (I would just issue a QO).  Twins do not seem to be in the position of paying for bad production.

 

let's say he's good again next year. That would be 2.5 good years, in the majors. Who is more likely to be good, a SP with that track record, or anyone they have in the minors?

[rghrbek]

 

I am not only looking at last year, but the entire body of work.  Do not want to pay for one good year (read Phil Hughes), and have him decline after last year.  If he has another good year, maybe we pay him (I would just issue a QO).  Twins do not seem to be in the position of paying for bad production.

 

I tend to agree.  Still a little queasy for me to say he has finally arrived as a #2 or #3, just pencil him in.

He is trending in the right direction and appears to have things figured out.  Also, he is 31, and has not had his big "contract."  Why would he sign say a 2 to 3 year deal with the twins before the start of this year, when if he has a good year again, he can get a 4 or 5 year deal for a much larger sum (likely somewhere else)?

 

I am sure his agent has brought this to his attention.  I would be surprised if the twins were able to extend him before this season starts.

[Tomj14]

 

I am not only looking at last year, but the entire body of work.  Do not want to pay for one good year (read Phil Hughes), and have him decline after last year.  If he has another good year, maybe we pay him (I would just issue a QO).  Twins do not seem to be in the position of paying for bad production.

His first full year his WAR was 2.3, then 3.0, then had a down year and a half and then has been one of the better starting pitchers in the American league the last year and half.

I get the hesitancy, but I will take him over every starting pitcher the Twins have in the minors for the next three years.

Obviously I will be willing to add a starting pitcher that was an upgrade and push him down to third or even 4th starting pitcher. But lets be honest if Kyle Gibson is the 4th best starting pitcher on any team, that is a damn good rotation.

 

[howieramone2]

 

I am not only looking at last year, but the entire body of work.  Do not want to pay for one good year (read Phil Hughes), and have him decline after last year.  If he has another good year, maybe we pay him (I would just issue a QO).  Twins do not seem to be in the position of paying for bad production.

Hughes was Darvished most of his last 3 years.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I dislike bullpen games. It's just too taxing on the BP unless the other 4 SPs provide consistent starts. Give Mejia a shot. I just don't see him as a RP and it makes no sense to cut him. I would rather give him a shot for a couple months. If he continues to exit early, use the "stacker "approach with whichever AAA guy looks ready. That would be a good way to break guys in the type of guys we have at AAA right now.  

To be clear, I'm talking more of a "stacker" approach with that fifth turn in the rotation as opposed to a bullpen game where you have like 6 guys throw 1-2 innings. Ultimately this can actually help preserve some of the other bullpen arms.

 

 

Not super confident that Mejia will be very good. But he's 26, left-handed, and has been pretty good in the minors. So, if 2019 is going to be a 'let's see' year, then Mejia falls solidly into the category of those that you'll want to see.

What is it that causes you to lack confidence in Mejia? He's pitched really well ever since coming over from San Fran. This year in 86 IP between the majors and Triple-A he had a 2.93 ERA and held opponents to a .226/.295/.320 line with a 12% swinging strike rate. Allowed only 4 HR. It's not too easy to find young left-handed hurlers with those kinds of credentials. 

 

His health and mediocre control are concerns, but to me he's shown enough that I'd absolutely be comfortable giving him a 5th starter or long reliever job. There aren't more red flags here than you're gonna find with any reasonably priced FA. And if he proves capable, that's a big boost.

[mlhouse]

The real problem is that the Twins should not have this many unanswered questions about their own internal prospects at this stage.

 

Maybe we should ask:

 

1.  WHy not just go with Fernando Romero.   Why send him back to AAA instead of letting him pitch the last half of the season.  Take away the terrible 6th start (1.2 innings 8 ERs) he has a 3.50 ERA.  Give him the ball every 5th start the rest of the way and see what happens.  The team was out of contention so giving him the extra look costs absolutely nothing.

 

2.   WHy should we be asking anything about Andrew Vasquez?   Why not give him more than the late season 9 appearance, 5 innings he got when he has a 1.52 career minor league ERA?   

 

3.  Not counting the 4 potisional players who took the mound, the Twins burned through 30 pitchers last season and 35 the year before?   They had 15 starts for a 44 year old in 2017.  25 appearances for a 38 year old Matt Belisle in 2018. And became the last home of most of the waiver wire pitchers in MLB baseball over the past couple of years.  Yet, we don't have any clue about some of the top prospects from this system.  

 

That these questins remain unanswered going into the 9th year of our XXX year rebuilding "plan" (notice I left the possibility of triple digits) demonstrates why this will be a never ending struggle.  

 

Here is some things this FO needs to understand.

 

1.  The only way you can really evaluate these players is by putting htem on the field.  Spring Training and minor leagues are not the right forum for these evaluation.

 

2.  Players can and should be developed at the major league level when you are rebuilding.

 

3.  The faster you move the players up to their level of failure, the faster you bring up the right players.

 

4.   Mediocre players on multi-million contracts are millions of dollars thrown out the door.

 

5.   The free agent players we are signing will be available every off-season.   You can always find a Zach Duke, Fernando Romney, Lance Lynn or even Jake Odorizzi in the free agent pool during the offseason.   Instead of committing the financial resources while you are rebuilding, wait until you truly have "holes" to fill.   Then make the moves.

[Ryan Atkins]

I fear the Twins may have missed their window with Kyle Gibson. I thought they should have extended him during last year's offseason. He has now put in 1.5 years of solid, consistent SP work. If he continues the path and has another good year in 2019, it is doubtful the Twins will be able to afford him on FA market terms.

[bobs]

Couple points here.  First, are we afraid to lose any of the guys Nick highlighted from the 40-man?  If they can find an upgrade, I would not hesitate.  Second, I'm with most who feel like Mejia has earned a shot at the rotation.  And I LOVE Nick's suggestion of Romero as a fireman.  In the past, we've been so focused on starting pitchers...and they get the big bucks for a reason, but Romero could be a VERY valuable piece out of the 'pen this year.  In 2019, they then can decide if they want to move him back to starting and he can fill a spot when Odorizzi, Pineda, etc., are likely gone.

[DocBauer]

Rotation: Berrios is only going to improve. As pointed out already, Gibson was very good the last year and a half, good his first 2 years, and is fully healthy. Odorizzi is not great, but when reflecting on career numbers and where he ranked for 2018, he's solid. As long as the knee injury/tweak Pineda suffered late last season is fine, his arm is sound, and he's posted some quality numbers in his career.

 

Mejia and Romero should be the front runners for the final rotation spot, designated starters used or not. Both could/should be on the team in some capacity.

 

Bullpen: Add one really good, proven arm on a 2-3yr deal, add a second on a lesser 1-2yr or "prove it" deal to go along with what we already have and you end up with a much, much better pen than 2018. And there is depth. Of course, Reed back to his old self...and his last 6 or so appearances he seemed to resemble that...you become that much deeper and stronger.

 

And no reason, over the course of a full year, that there won't be opportunities to audition the youth/depth for 2020 and beyond.

[ChrisKnutson]

This may be too optimistic, but I feel next year’s starting rotation conversation must start with the trio of Berrios, Romero, and Graterol being locks.

 

And while we could choose to round out the rest of the rotation internally with either Mejia, Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe, or Enlow, I’ve always felt there should be at least one veteran on each staff, whether that’s through free agency or an acquisition, I don’t really care, the most important thing is whether, or not, this veteran is a reliable source of innings. Then again, there is a possibility that we’re big players for either Gerrit Cole, Zach Wheeler, or Julio Teheran next offseason.

[Riverbrian]

I hope the walls are torn down between starters and relievers and the innings are allocated based on performance. If Rogers is our best pitcher... Rogers should throw more innings. Increase his workload from 60 to 120 or whatever in between... find out what he can handle. 

 

If anybody is our worst pitcher... don't give him as many innings. If we have a starter with a 6.77 ERA... there is no reason to call him an innings eater and have him eat innings while he is giving up earned runs.

 

Simply move on to the next option or throw him less. 

[bird]

 

I fear the Twins may have missed their window with Kyle Gibson. I thought they should have extended him during last year's offseason. He has now put in 1.5 years of solid, consistent SP work. If he continues the path and has another good year in 2019, it is doubtful the Twins will be able to afford him on FA market terms.

 

 

The Twins can very much afford to pay market rates for guys like Gibson, and they should. Because it's in their own interests.

 

What they CAN'T afford to do is to pay above-market rates, especially if the player flops. And they can't afford multiples of players like Hughes and Nolasco either.

[Danchat]

This may be too optimistic, but I feel next year’s starting rotation conversation must start with the trio of Berrios, Romero, and Graterol being locks.

 

And while we could choose to round out the rest of the rotation internally with either Mejia, Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe, or Enlow, I’ve always felt there should be at least one veteran on each staff, whether that’s through free agency or an acquisition, I don’t really care, the most important thing is whether, or not, this veteran is a reliable source of innings. Then again, there is a possibility that we’re big players for either Gerrit Cole, Zach Wheeler, or Julio Teheran next offseason.

Locking in a rookie starter is not a good idea if Graterol pitches like typical Twins rookie started. It took Berrios, our best prospect in quite a while, a season of bad pitching to figure things out.

[S.]

 

I hope the walls are torn down between starters and relievers and the innings are allocated based on performance. If Rogers is our best pitcher... Rogers should throw more innings. Increase his workload from 60 to 120 or whatever in between... find out what he can handle. 

 

If anybody is our worst pitcher... don't give him as many innings. If we have a starter with a 6.77 ERA... there is no reason to call him an innings eater and have him eat innings while he is giving up earned runs.

 

Simply move on to the next option or throw him less. 

While I understand what you're saying in theory, in practice you're just going to end up blowing out all your relievers. When you say "find out what he can handle," all that means to me is that you're going to keep using your best RPs until they break down. Which I guess is a viable approach if you're pushing down the stretch to make the playoffs or pushing in the playoffs to win the world series. But if you have RPs signed for multiple years, trying to increase their innings by 2x from one year to the next seems like a good way to blow out their arms, or end up with a bullpen full of relievers in August and September who are already cooked and won't be able to produce down the stretch (or in the playoffs, though realistically I don't think thats anything we need to worry about in 2019).

 

I do agree that you shouldn't keep trotting out garbage just because of sunk cost or because of some reputation that they've built from years past when they were a completely different pitcher, but going the opposite direction and hugely increasing pitchers innings because they're pitching well isn't a sustainable approach to me. Do I agree that the RP pitching well should get more innings than the Matt Belisles of our roster? Absolutely, but I don't think it is even remotely reasonable to assume you can just send most relievers out there for 100 or 120 innings every year and expect them to hold up over the long term. And likely many of them wouldn't hold up over the short term or are going to start losing velocity and all of a sudden they aren't your best relievers anymore because they're already worn down in July.

[Vanimal46]

While I understand what you're saying in theory, in practice you're just going to end up blowing out all your relievers. When you say "find out what he can handle," all that means to me is that you're going to keep using your best RPs until they break down. Which I guess is a viable approach if you're pushing down the stretch to make the playoffs or pushing in the playoffs to win the world series. But if you have RPs signed for multiple years, trying to increase their innings by 2x from one year to the next seems like a good way to blow out their arms, or end up with a bullpen full of relievers in August and September who are already cooked and won't be able to produce down the stretch (or in the playoffs, though realistically I don't think thats anything we need to worry about in 2019).

 

I do agree that you shouldn't keep trotting out garbage just because of sunk cost or because of some reputation that they've built from years past when they were a completely different pitcher, but going the opposite direction and hugely increasing pitchers innings because they're pitching well isn't a sustainable approach to me. Do I agree that the RP pitching well should get more innings than the Matt Belisles of our roster? Absolutely, but I don't think it is even remotely reasonable to assume you can just send most relievers out there for 100 or 120 innings every year and expect them to hold up over the long term. And likely many of them wouldn't hold up over the short term or are going to start losing velocity and all of a sudden they aren't your best relievers anymore because they're already worn down in July.

Concur. Sounds like it's doubling down on the one thing we all agreed Molitor did poorly - over using his good relievers to the point where they broke down in 2 months.

[mlhouse]

I think the Twins approach to the rotation is pretty straight forward.

 

1.  You start with Berrio, Gibson, and Odorizzi.  However, the latter two could become expendable if the right deal comes along but only for the right deal.

 

2.   Fernando Romero is my 4th starter no matter what.  He has been the top pitching prospect in the organization for quite some time.  You slot him in and you give him at least 1/2 the year in this spot.

 

3.  Although I don't think the pitching gimmicks make sense, the 5th starter spot should be a combination of Gonsalves and Meija, with both scheduled to start alternating who is the opener and who isn't.   Since the 5th guy isn't required to pitch all the time, they can fill in as long relievers when needed.

 

4.   Rogers and Hildenberger are your top 2 set up men.  NEither are going to be closers.

 

5.  ALthough I don't like it, I sign a short term free agent closer to an inexpensive contract.

 

6.   Gabriel Moya is the next guy in the bullpen.

 

7.   Andrew Vasquez is the lefty specialist.

 

8.   Trevor May is the last guy on the staff.  

 

I trade or release Addison Reed.  Guys like Curtiss, Busenitz, are in AAA and if they are called up they are basically on their last string.  Lastly, how the bullpen is used depends upon how the guys perform.  Maybe May pitches so well you can't keep him out of 75 appearnace and Hildenberger loses some of his appearances.

 

Some of these guys might not pan out.   But hopefully from the group we develop enough quality pitchers we can get the core group experience moving forward, then fill the holes with the right free agents.

 

 

[bird]

 

I will say this holding onto prospects too long makes them way less valuable. Imagine what the Twins would have gotten in return two years ago offering Gonzo, Gordon, Jay and Stewart and what that would get them today.

 

It would be interesting to see what value the Twins perceived depth would bring back?

Slegers,Gonsalves,Romero,Mejia,Thorpe,Tylers Wells,Littel.

 

IMO Romero, Thorpe and Wells would close to headlines in a trade, and they might have to trade all three plus somehting else to get a top end rotation guy.

 

It appears that, right or wrong, this FO is pretty much doing the opposite of what you'd do. Let's focus on pitching so as to not veer from the point of this thread.

 

Looking at SIckle's analysis and comparing it to the 6 other teams he reported on prior to his sudden temporary hiatus, some things are clear:

 

The Twins have 40 pitching prospects who grade out at C or better. People will dismiss this fact as insignificant. Because it's a numbers game, they shouldn't. Plenty of pitching prospects who grade out as C or C+ do in fact make it to MLB, and the Twins had a few on last year's team. For example, Vasquez, Curtiss, and Slegers are all C types. More importantly, C types become B's and even A's in small numbers, so let's look at the other six teams.

 

Surprisingly KC has 39 such pitching prospects, so their system is very much on the rise despite less excitement about their positional prospects. No other team has more than 31 (Boston), although Atlanta, with 29, has a pipeline that is obscenely good, with 5 of those prospects better than our best (Graterol). After that, LAD has 26, Sea 24, Cincy 21. 

 

But the point remains that having 10 more legit pitching prospects than the average team is a pretty big deal. Especially when plenty of them are earning B grades. ( B prospects have a good chance of having successful careers ). Atlanta has 10 of those, Twins 9, KC 8, Boston 6, LAD 5, Cincy 3, SEA 2.

 

My guess on what they're thinking: They're better off filling holes through FA than via trade because the present value of the Romero's and Graterol's in the system aren't high enough to fetch difference-makers, so Odor Easy and Pineda are their solution. They probably like our prospects better than most of us do. Remember, many of us wrote Stewart off completely, and Gonsalves gets less love by the month.

 

I think your premise is fine, but trying to time the trade of a prospect to get optimal value is fraught with difficulty. Stewart's value, for example, may be higher now than it was when he was first eligible to be included in a trade. Whoduthunk?

Edited December 18, 2018 by birdwatcher

[Mike Sixel]

Locking in a rookie starter is not a good idea if Graterol pitches like typical Twins rookie started. It took Berrios, our best prospect in quite a while, a season of bad pitching to figure things out.

That should be next year, then, since they don't look like contenders.....