Article: What's the Plan with Tyler Austin?

[Mike Sixel]

 

He had options when they traded for him.  Molitor just sat him longer than he should have had...

 

Not really relevant now. He had one last year, and they weren't sending him down last year. Or am I misunderstanding something? 

[Dman]

 

If I were GM, I'm keeping Tyler Austin. We have POTENTIAL options with Rooker/Wiel, but if Wiel is truly a good option he will get picked in the rule V draft thursday. Tyler Austin has homered 1 out of 15 AB's and at 400 AB's that's a 30 HR pace. Only 8 players in MLB in 2018 had a better HR/AB pace. 

 

CJ Cron has not been much better in terms of OPS and owns a 26% K rate as well. He also has not been much better v RHP. The difference between RHP and LHP for Austin was .130 different in 2018, while Cron had an .160 OPS drop off vs RHP.

 

Austin is a younger version of Cron for 4 million less, and has 2 more years of control. 

If the Twins are able to sign Cruz I would move on from the Cron experiment and put Austin at 1st and platoon him with Kepler. That way Kepler can play almost everyday and Jake Cave will get in the lineup a lot more vs RHP. It's a Win win.

 

 

VS RHP

 

1B Kepler RF Cave

 

Vs LHP 

 

1B Austin RF Kepler

 

Yeah when I mentioned Wiel it was a bit of a stretch as I don't think he showed the home run power Austin has and he really just has last year at AA as an impressive season.  His OPS was very good in AA and his 51 at bats in AAA show he may have a ways to go. There is a reason he wasn't added to the 40 man.  The thing that I liked about him though was the K and walk rate.  He seems like he might have a better eye at the plate and that typically bodes well for MLB success.

 

I think he would be a tough rule 5 pick as a team would have to sacrifice a bench spot to a pretty none versatile player.  Also he hasn't proven he can master even AAA pitching just yet and he isn't a young player, so it would be a gamble for some team to select him but someone might do it.  The signs for success are there but I think most teams would prefer to invest in more versatile bench players.

 

Rooker is the player more comparable to Austin. Their power is similar as is their K rate.  Rooker has less experience but would have options and Austin didn't light the world on fire last year. I like his potential but with Cron, Garver, Austudillo, and others somebody is going to have to go and I think it will be Austin but we'll see.

Edited December 12, 2018 by Dman

[Nick Nelson]

 

Nick, 

 

I love ya but C'mon... we can't go around quoting splits based on 242 AB's vs. Righties and 125 AB's  vs. lefties over two seasons of sporadic playing time and make it mean something because it's the only data we have.

 

This is completely unfair to the player because everybody else gets to at least get closer to critical mass. 

 

I know you are trying to support him and I'm right there with ya with support for him myself but trying to salvage his value by turning him into a left handed specialist will only hasten his departure. 

I'm not sure what you're saying here RB. I'm using the data we have, which jibes with what I've seen. Austin has been a good hitter in the majors, was a very good hitter in the minors. Given that he just turned 27 and has only had the opportunity to play sporadically, I see room for growth yet. Finding him a role where he can maximize ABs against LHP seems like the best way to get him on the roster, derive immediate value, and gradually find him more playing time if he hits.

[Riverbrian]

Hmm...

 

Nelson Cruz (through age 26)

145 games, 478 PA, .231/.282/.385, OPS+ 72, 119K, 30BB, no defensive value

 

Tyler Austin (through age 26)

120 games, 404 PA, .232/.290/.469, OPS+ 100, 148K, 30BB, no defensive value

 

Cruz spent most of his age 27 season in the minors, but came up in August and was great for 31 games on the way to becoming the ongoing monster that now has 360 career HRs.

 

I'm not saying Austin is the second coming of Nelson Cruz, but those numbers put an interesting spin on the conversation for me.

 

Exactly

 

Great post. The Book has not been written on Tyler Austin. Will he get a chance will determine how the story goes.

[Puckett34]

Does Austin have any option years left? I don't think he does, but that could be a factor if he does have any left

[Mike Sixel]

Does Austin have any option years left? I don't think he does, but that could be a factor if he does have any left

No. Discussed above.

[Riverbrian]

I'm not sure what you're saying here RB. I'm using the data we have, which jibes with what I've seen. Austin has been a good hitter in the majors, was a very good hitter in the minors. Given that he just turned 27 and has only had the opportunity to play sporadically, I see room for growth yet. Finding him a role where he can maximize ABs against LHP seems like the best way to get him on the roster, derive immediate value, and gradually find him more playing time if he hits.

It’s too soon and not enough stable data to drop him into the short end of a platoon. Trying to protect him against right handlers won’t help him. It will kill him because if he isn’t allowed to stabilize his right handed numbers he wont have a career.

 

I’d like to keep him and play him and see if he can hit 40 homers with 500 Ab’s And you are right Cron and Cruz are going to be complications for keeping him.

 

Unless he can be moved back to the OF to separate himself from the power hitting 1B/DH puppy mill that is spitting out Crons and Bours.

 

I agree with what you are saying in a broad sense. Just specifically strongly disagree that his stats suggest anything yet and definitely don’t want to consider the short end of a platoon because he gets branded too early.

 

It’s all good.

[Puckett34]

 

No. Discussed above.

Sorry. Missed it. 

[Vanimal46]

This sums up my thoughts on the subject.

 

[IndianaTwin]

 

 

 

...Cruz spent most of his age 27 season in the minors, but came up in August and was great for 31 games on the way to becoming the ongoing monster that now has 360 career HRs...

 

 

 

I didn't realize that Cruz had 360 HRs -- that's almost Bainesian!

 

Cruz has 33.4 WAR and 360 HRs, with an .860 OPS. Baines had 38.7, 389, and .820, though with significantly more hits over a longer career. But does that mean that if Cruz has another solid year or two, folks could be pushing for the HOF? I know this belongs in another post, but that Baines selection keeps looking weaker and weaker to me.

 

[RatherBeGolfing]

It's pretty clear: if Cruz (or any other pure DH type we sign) ends up here, then there is no plan with Austin. He will not be part of this organization

 

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

I didn't realize that Cruz had 360 HRs -- that's almost Bainesian!

 

Cruz has 33.4 WAR and 360 HRs, with an .860 OPS. Baines had 38.7, 389, and .820, though with significantly more hits over a longer career. But does that mean that if Cruz has another solid year or two, folks could be pushing for the HOF? I know this belongs in another post, but that Baines selection keeps looking weaker and weaker to me.

I don’t think even Baines was pushing for Baines for the HOF.

[frightwig]

 

Hmm...

 

Nelson Cruz (through age 26)

145 games, 478 PA, .231/.282/.385, OPS+ 72, 119K, 30BB, no defensive value

 

Tyler Austin (through age 26)

120 games, 404 PA, .232/.290/.469, OPS+ 100, 148K, 30BB, no defensive value

 

Cruz spent most of his age 27 season in the minors, but came up in August and was great for 31 games on the way to becoming the ongoing monster that now has 360 career HRs.

 

I'm not saying Austin is the second coming of Nelson Cruz, but those numbers put an interesting spin on the conversation for me. 

 

The young Nelson Cruz was really a pretty good corner outfielder.

 

Also note that at age 24 he hit .306/.388/.577 in AA, .269/.382/.490 in AAA. At 25, he hit .302/.378/.528 in AAA. At 26, he hit .352/.428/.698 in AAA. At 27, he hit .342/.429/.695 in yet another stint in AAA (God knows why).

 

So, although it's true that he struggled to make the leap to the majors through age 26, the dude was just crushing minor league pitching--and really the Rangers probably should have given him more of a chance to settle in, a couple years before he came up to stay.

 

Tyler Austin has done fairly well in the minors, but not quite as well as that, and last season at AAA he regressed to a .255/.311/.547 line between the NY/MIN affiliates. Maybe just a fluke, or maybe that's who he is. Steamer projects .240/.308/.447 for him next year, so 'low obp with some pop' is how he looks to the computer model.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

It's pretty clear: if Cruz (or any other pure DH type we sign) ends up here, then there is no plan with Austin. He will not be part of this organization

 

I'm really not sure why you say this. This Cron character doesn't inspire me at all. I look at him as another Logan Morrison, and I'm guessing that is what we will get. Strikes out alot, hits for power, no one wants him, dumpster pickup. Don't expect alot from this guy. 

 

Let him and Austin fight it out in Spring training. Put Cave in that group too. You can keep 2 of the three. None of the 3 of them are must haves. Let a couple win the job and one guy lose it. 

 

 

[Halsey Hall]

I'd trade Austin first chance I had.  He doesn't know the strike zone at all.  We've seen enough of him to know what's ahead. 

[jkcarew]

If you can add Cruz on a reasonable term, you do it. At that point you lose Cron or Austin. You have nothing invested in Cron...little invested in Austin. If Garver can't catch, you might have had to make a call on one of these guys even without Cruz. I'm still not convinced you'll have a 4-man bench.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

I'm really not sure why you say this. This Cron character doesn't inspire me at all. I look at him as another Logan Morrison, and I'm guessing that is what we will get. Strikes out alot, hits for power, no one wants him, dumpster pickup. Don't expect alot from this guy. 

 

Let him and Austin fight it out in Spring training. Put Cave in that group too. You can keep 2 of the three. None of the 3 of them are must haves. Let a couple win the job and one guy lose it. 

 

Well mainly cause the article was about Austin but you can include Cron too. 

 

The overall point is that if Cruz or another pure DH type ends up here somehow, they can't keep everyone on the roster. They can't keep all 3 around. Since this article is about Austin, I just used his name.

[jorgenswest]

I dug through the bbref pages to pull up the platoon splits for Austin, Cron, Cave and Cruz, including their minors numbers (but not Cruz' minors; plenty to go on from his MLB resume). Here are the results, which were somewhat surprising to me:

 

Player PA vs RHP OPS vs RHP PA vs LHP OPS vs LHP

Austin 2144 .... .834 .... 927 ... .811

Cron 2716 ... .790 ... 1030 ... .833

Cave 2355 ... .815 ... 836 ... .632

Cruz 4651 ... .835 .... 1767 ... .927

 

So Cruz, unsurprisingly, is the best player of the four, regardless of the starting pitcher. Signing him should help the team, depending, of course, on how much he declines. Note that Cruz OPSed over 850 in two of the past three years versus right handers.

 

The second most valuable player from that group, in my view, is Austin. He has hit RHP just as well as Nelson Cruz over his career!

 

Cave looks like the third most valuable, with an OPS north of 800 against RHP, which is more than 70% of the ABs. Of course, as a lefty with Kepler and Rosario, he doesn't have a good path to ABs in the OF, and he doesn't hit righties better than Austin or Cruz, either. And he is terrible versus lefties.

 

Cron looks weakest from this group. Sure, he mashes lefties, but not much more than Austin, and definitely not more than Cruz.

I don’t think that minor league OPS data particularly when not normed would not be very reliable.

 

The strike out and walk rate splits would tell a much better story. Did you look at those? If the more recent minor league K/BB splits are similar I would have more confidence in his ability to hit major league right handed pitching.

[Boom Boom]

I think trying to use Austin as the righty-side of a platoon is trying too hard to keep him on the roster.

[jorgenswest]

I think trying to use Austin as the righty-side of a platoon is trying too hard to keep him on the roster.

Do you cut a guy who might be your best bat against a left handed pitcher? Is that bat more valuable than a 13th pitcher?

[Dman]

I know this is slightly off topic but it appears the Rays are in on Cruz and they have plenty of money to spend.  Sooo what does that say about what they think about Cron?  Was there some baseball move I don't understand where they lost him or do they not think he is that good?  Any ideas?

 

[jtkoupal]

I have a feeling Austin might be the odd man out when the Twins sign Nelson Cruz

[Mike Sixel]

 

I know this is slightly off topic but it appears the Rays are in on Cruz and they have plenty of money to spend.  Sooo what does that say about what they think about Cron?  Was there some baseball move I don't understand where they lost him or do they not think he is that good?  Any ideas?

 

Well, they just spent more on a SP than than the Twins ever have (yearly average amount)....so maybe they are done? 

[Doctor Wu]

 

I didn't realize that Cruz had 360 HRs -- that's almost Bainesian!

 

Cruz has 33.4 WAR and 360 HRs, with an .860 OPS. Baines had 38.7, 389, and .820, though with significantly more hits over a longer career. But does that mean that if Cruz has another solid year or two, folks could be pushing for the HOF? I know this belongs in another post, but that Baines selection keeps looking weaker and weaker to me.

Bonus points for using the term "Bainesian". Love it!

[Doctor Wu]

Just think, a year ago we were all debating the merits --- or lack thereof -- of Morrison and Vargas at first base and DH. Frankly, I'm not sure if the outlook for this coming season represents progress or not.

[Twodogs]

DH seems like his best fit.

[Brandon]

The plan for Austin is for Hrbeck to coach him and Cron into a full cage no holds bar WWE style knock out match for 1B winner takes all.

 

How does anyone not see this comming?

[AlwaysinModeration]

I don’t think that minor league OPS data particularly when not normed would not be very reliable.

 

The strike out and walk rate splits would tell a much better story. Did you look at those? If the more recent minor league K/BB splits are similar I would have more confidence in his ability to hit major league right handed pitching.

For both Cron and Austin, they had K/BB numbers in the minors of about 2.5 to 1. In the majors, Cron’s rate jumped to 4:1, whereas Austin’s has jumped to 5:1.

 

For Nelson Cruz, he had a similar rate of 2.5 or so to 1 K/BB in the minors and also in the majors.

 

I would assume that both Austin and Cron would improve their K/BB rates over time, gravitating towards their minor league rates.

 

On a slightly different note, Justin Bour has an OPS of 853 against righties, better than Austin, Cron, Cave and Cruz!

[jorgenswest]

 

For both Cron and Austin, they had K/BB numbers in the minors of about 2.5 to 1. In the majors, Cron’s rate jumped to 4:1, whereas Austin’s has jumped to 5:1.

For Nelson Cruz, he had a similar rate of 2.5 or so to 1 K/BB in the minors and also in the majors.

I would assume that both Austin and Cron would improve their K/BB rates over time, gravitating towards their minor league rates.

On a slightly different note, Justin Bour has an OPS of 853 against righties, better than Austin, Cron, Cave and Cruz!

Thanks for the work. I was interested in his K/BB ratio splits in the minors. Going back three years there is not a significant difference in the splits like there is in Austin's major league numbers. 

 

136/65 v right

65/30 v left

 

With your prompting, I have more hope that Austin will hit right handed pitching much better than he has show the last three years in the majors.

[AlwaysinModeration]

 

I dug through the bbref pages to pull up the platoon splits for Austin, Cron, Cave and Cruz, including their minors numbers (but not Cruz' minors; plenty to go on from his MLB resume).  Here are the results, which were somewhat surprising to me:

 

Player     PA vs RHP     OPS vs RHP   PA vs LHP     OPS vs LHP

Austin         2144   ....              .834  ....                   927    ...             .811

Cron           2716    ...             .790    ...                1030     ...            .833

Cave           2355    ...            .815    ...                 836      ...           .632

Cruz            4651    ...            .835    ....               1767     ...           .927

   

So Cruz, unsurprisingly, is the best player of the four, regardless of the starting pitcher.  Signing him should help the team, depending, of course, on how much he declines.  Note that Cruz OPSed over 850 in two of the past three years versus right handers.

 

The second most valuable player from that group, in my view, is Austin.  He has hit RHP just as well as Nelson Cruz over his career!

 

Cave looks like the third most valuable, with an OPS north of 800 against RHP, which is more than 70% of the ABs.  Of course, as a lefty with Kepler and Rosario, he doesn't have a good path to ABs in the OF, and he doesn't hit righties better than Austin or Cruz, either.  And he is terrible versus lefties.

 

Cron looks weakest from this group.  Sure, he mashes lefties, but not much more than Austin, and definitely not more than Cruz. 

 

Just to explore this a bit further, I went to look up the career splits for Kepler, Buxton, Rosario, and Sano.  Adding in minor league and major league ABs:

 

Kepler 

vs RHP.....PA: 2722....OPS: 803....vs LHP....PA: 860...OPS: 678

Rosario

vs RHP.....PA: 2974....OPS: 838....vs LHP....PA: 1203...OPS: 732

Buxton

vs RHP.....PA: 1977....OPS: 792....vs LHP....PA: 697...OPS: 801

Sano

vs RHP.....PA: 2760....OPS: 870....vs LHP....PA: 887...OPS: 918

 

Copying the other numbers as well:

Austin

vs RHP.....PA: 2144....OPS: 834....vs LHP....PA: 927...OPS: 811

Cron

vs RHP.....PA: 2716....OPS: 790....vs LHP....PA: 1030...OPS: 833

Cave

vs RHP.....PA: 2355....OPS: 815....vs LHP....PA: 836...OPS: 632

Cruz

vs RHP.....PA: 4651....OPS: 835....vs LHP....PA: 1767...OPS: 927

 

Certainly seems like Austin should be in the OF every time a lefty is on the mound, subbing in for either Kepler or Rosario.  And he should start at 1B against righties.