Article: Rundown: Cruz, Cahill, Soria and Ramos

[nicksaviking]

How sure are we that a 38-year-old Cruz outhits an Austin/Cave platoon at DH by a significant margin? I know which scenario yields vastly more long-term benefit to the club, while keeping as much money as possible free to spend on pitching.

I’m luke-warm on Cruz, but I don’t have Cron or Austin in my long term plans anyway. If those two are casualties I’ll be fine with it.

[Dr. Evil]

How sure are we that a 38-year-old Cruz outhits an Austin/Cave platoon at DH by a significant margin? I know which scenario yields vastly more long-term benefit to the club, while keeping as much money as possible free to spend on pitching.

I would bet on the side of Cruz significantly out producing that platoon while setting the bar for players to learn from. I contend that the intangible benefit vastly out values the platoon as well.

[USAFChief]

Nope, Murphy could play 3B after the bad slide or Murphy could play 2B while Schoop plays 3B. 

 

Options my friend... Teams need options.

 

Where is Murphy playing BEFORE the bad slide?

[USAFChief]

How sure are we that a 38-year-old Cruz outhits an Austin/Cave platoon at DH by a significant margin? I know which scenario yields vastly more long-term benefit to the club, while keeping as much money as possible free to spend on pitching.

I’m not sure of anything, but if I was a betting man, and I am, I’d bet on Cruz.

 

Cave will get some ABs anyway. Austin I don’t care about, nor Astudillo.

[Riverbrian]

 

Where is Murphy playing BEFORE the bad slide?

 

Where do you want him? 

 

1B, 2B, 3B are all possibilities. 

 

I'd give him Adrianza's roster spot. 

 

Sign Cruz... Go have fun watching the Twins play a baseball game. 

[USAFChief]

Where do you want him?

 

1B, 2B, 3B are all possibilities.

 

I'd give him Adrianza's roster spot.

 

Sign Cruz... Go have fun watching the Twins play a baseball game.

well he's not playing 2nd, that's Schoop, and he's not playing 3rd. He cant have Adrianza's spot unless you're gonna let him play SS. He can have Cron's spot, but then we're back to Adrianza at 3rd when that bad slide happens.

[Riverbrian]

 

well he's not playing 2nd, that's Schooo, and he's not playing 3rd. He can have Cron's spot, but then we're back to Adrianza when that bad slide happens.

 

Too late

 

I gave Adrianza's spot to Murphy so he is no longer an option. No Take Backs. I threw away the key... You can't resurrect my decision. Besides Adrianza was immediately claimed by the Angels.    

 

I see what you are trying to say here but it's not going to work with me. I've been too broken record on the topic to stop or get tripped up now. 

 

If a Manager can't figure out how to deploy Schoop, Sano, Murphy, Cron and Cruz with 4 roster spots. He shouldn't have the job and sadly, if Baldelli can't figure it out, the Orioles will get there before we will because they just went out and hired Hyde for the job and you can bet that Hyde knows how to deploy Schoop, Sano, Murphy, Cron and Cruz for 4 roster spots. 

 

There are teams that actually strive to have 5 players for 4 roster spots and think it's wonderful when they do. 

 

I'm also sorry to inform you of this... I hope you are sitting down and please gather your loved ones around because they will be the ones who will sincerely say "there there" after you hear what I'm about to say. 

 

Here it goes: "You'll never have the team you want, unless you have a manager who can figure out how to deploy Schoop, Sano, Murphy, Cron and Cruz for 4 positions or their equivalents". 

 

4 right handed hitters and a lefty and the manager can't figure it out? 

 

Also... a GM who thinks that Adrianza for a month or two or five at 3B for Sano after a bad slide is OK as long as we have Cruz at DH isn't going to give you that team you want either.  

 

 

 

 

[Tom Froemming]

 

How sure are we that a 38-year-old Cruz outhits an Austin/Cave platoon at DH by a significant margin?

Very, very sure.

[nicksaviking]

 

Where is Murphy playing BEFORE the bad slide?

 

New York?

[jmlease1]

 

How sure are we that a 38-year-old Cruz outhits an Austin/Cave platoon at DH by a significant margin? I know which scenario yields vastly more long-term benefit to the club, while keeping as much money as possible free to spend on pitching.

 

Because Cruz gets on base? Because there's pretty good odds Tyler Austin just isn't that good? Because Cruz doesn't have bad platoon splits that suggest he needs to be protected against tough righties?

 

I'd rather spend the roster spot on Cruz than Austin, who I'm just not that impressed with. He's a lesser version of Cron in my opinion and I'd much rather have Cruz getting those ABs at DH.

 

I'm not that worried about Sano "needing" to move to 1B in the next 1-2 years: his defense at 3B is good enough and if he's not hitting it's not going to get better at 1B or DH.

[howieramone2]

 

Some food for thought:

 

2018 ERA

3.62 Gibson

3.76 Cahill

3.84 Berrios

4.49 Odorizzi

 

2018 FIP

3.54 Cahill

3.90 Berrios

4.13 Gibson

4.20 Odorizzi

 

2018 WHIP

1.14 Berrios

1.19 Cahill

1.30 Gibson

1.34 Odorizzi

 

2018 K:BB

3.31 Berrios

2.44 Cahill

2.31 Odorizzi

2.27 Gibson

 

The other top FA SPs available are Keuchel (who has a qualifying offer), Happ, Kikuchi (though he sounds more interested in playing on the west coast), Morton (though he sounds more interested in either staying in Houston or playing on the east coast), Gio, Anibal and Matt Harvey. I think Cahill represents a solid option in that group in terms of performance and availability. 

 

They obviously also have the option of trying to trade for a pitcher, but you gotta give something to get something. If the Twins are intent on treating 2019 as an evaluation year, I can't imagine they're motivated to trade away any prospects. We'll see.

The Twins aren't intent in treating 2019 as an evaluation year.

[howieramone2]

 

After sleeping on it, I'd sign Cruz. This is, of course, why you shouldn't be in a hurry to add a tiny upgrade in Cron really in the off season, but they did. Austin can join the very long list of guys this FO has acquired that was here for less than a year.

Every team has a very long list of players with them for less than a year. Also, this board was in one hell of a hurry to add players and still is. I see Cron as a decent pickup. 

[USAFChief]

Too late

 

I gave Adrianza's spot to Murphy so he is no longer an option. No Take Backs. I threw away the key... You can't resurrect my decision. Besides Adrianza was immediately claimed by the Angels.

 

I see what you are trying to say here but it's not going to work with me. I've been too broken record on the topic to stop or get tripped up now.

 

If a Manager can't figure out how to deploy Schoop, Sano, Murphy, Cron and Cruz with 4 roster spots. He shouldn't have the job and sadly, if Baldelli can't figure it out, the Orioles will get there before we will because they just went out and hired Hyde for the job and you can bet that Hyde knows how to deploy Schoop, Sano, Murphy, Cron and Cruz for 4 roster spots.

 

There are teams that actually strive to have 5 players for 4 roster spots and think it's wonderful when they do.

 

I'm also sorry to inform you of this... I hope you are sitting down and please gather your loved ones around because they will be the ones who will sincerely say "there there" after you hear what I'm about to say.

 

Here it goes: "You'll never have the team you want, unless you have a manager who can figure out how to deploy Schoop, Sano, Murphy, Cron and Cruz for 4 positions or their equivalents".

 

4 right handed hitters and a lefty and the manager can't figure it out?

 

Also... a GM who thinks that Adrianza for a month or two or five at 3B for Sano after a bad slide is OK as long as we have Cruz at DH isn't going to give you that team you want either.

You need to make room for Adrianza, too, because the Twins aren't going into the season without a second infielder who can play SS.

[howieramone2]

 

I like signing Cruz....but that only makes the Cron acquisition more befuddling.  

Cron plays 1B and Cruz is primary DH. Austin goes to the minors where he belongs.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

How sure are we that a 38-year-old Cruz outhits an Austin/Cave platoon at DH by a significant margin? I know which scenario yields vastly more long-term benefit to the club, while keeping as much money as possible free to spend on pitching.

 

100%. 

 

Cruz gets on base and hits the ball a mile. He also guzzles down steroids and is good at hiding it so his old body can play for a bit yet. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

You need to make room for Adrianza, too, because the Twins aren't going into the season without a second infielder who can play SS.

 

You are starting to state my issue with the signing of a DH only. It takes a roster spot and leaves you exposed elsewhere. 

 

I'm not going to be even close to comfortable with Adrianza backing up Sano and I'm not planning for 162 games out of Sano. 

 

So... if you are going to sign Cruz... And I'm fine signing Cruz because I love his bat. 

 

You are going to need a player who can backup SS for you and at least provide a portion of the power lost while Sano is down at 3B for me.  

 

So... Give Texas a call and check on Profar pricing. Give Houston a call, see if they are tired of Aledmys Diaz yet.  Call the Dodgers, Seager will be back, they are trying to move things around in preparation for next year. Maybe we can get a reasonable price for Taylor or Kike. Pull a fast one on our buddy Escobar, Call Arizona make a deal for him when he isn't looking. Surprise! or check on Ahmed. Take the PR hit with Addison Russell, Take a look at Tim Beckham, Asdrubal, Harrison, Lowrie... Consider Schoop for a SS fill in. He's played there. Take a chance on Tulo. 

 

There are options... but the bottom line... I'm all for signing Cruz because his bat would be awesome in the middle of the order but when you sign a DH only... It carries roster consequences unless you take an additional step to address them. 

 

So if you sign Cruz... you better piggy back him with somebody else so you don't give back your gains by having Adrianza playing 3B for a month or more after a bad slide.

 

If signing Cruz means Adrianza as the backup at 3B... I'm out and out quickly. If Signing Cruz is combined with a complimentary piece to address this concern... I'm in and in quickly. 

 

[big dog]

 

Cron plays 1B and Cruz is primary DH. Austin goes to the minors where he belongs.

Good plan, except Austin is out of options.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Very, very sure.

Based on... ?

 

Austin and Cave over the past 2 years have very consistently destroyed opposite-sided arms both in AAA and the majors. And at 26/27 we can reasonably expect them to get better, whereas we can only reasonably expect a 38/39-year-old Cruz will get worse.

 

You can be confident Cruz will outhit them based on his track record, but to say you're "very, very sure" he'll be significantly more productive? Sorry, just no objective basis for that.

 

Additionally, there are matters of depth at play here. Since we can safely assumed Austin will be DFA'd in the event of a Cruz signing, you lose 1B depth in exchange for someone who offers zero positional depth anywhere. Cruz cannot play in the field, anywhere. That's a bigger deal than people are making out to be.

[GP830]

I lov Cruz, and would love to see his bat in the middle of the line-up. However, I remain focuses on the line-up's ability to get on base, as well as it's heavy right-handedness. 

[Tom Froemming]

 

Based on... ?

 

Austin and Cave over the past 2 years have very consistently destroyed opposite-sided arms both in AAA and the majors. And at 26/27 we can reasonably expect them to get better, whereas we can only reasonably expect a 38/39-year-old Cruz will get worse.

 

You can be confident Cruz will outhit them based on his track record, but to say you're "very, very sure" he'll be significantly more productive? Sorry, just no objective basis for that.

 

Additionally, there are matters of depth at play here. Since we can safely assumed Austin will be DFA'd in the event of a Cruz signing, you lose 1B depth in exchange for someone who offers zero positional depth anywhere. Cruz cannot play in the field, anywhere. That's a bigger deal than people are making out to be.

Based on the fact that Nelson Cruz has actually been a really good Major League hitter. Based on the fact that you can't just assume two guys would be able to stay sharp being platooned. Based on the fact that we're dealing with tiny samples of Austin and Cave and a mammoth amount of data on Cruz.

 

Austin and Cave are every bit as likely to get worse than they are to get better. Some guys do regress once there's a book out on them. Neither of them take good at bats, which is a big cause for concern.

 

In your scenario, Cave plays the majority of the time. I'm worried he's going to be Danny Santana 2.0. Considering his walk and strikeout rate, nobody should be giving Cave anything to hit. If pitchers adjust and that .363 BABIP drops, you're not left with much upside. That was the 10th-highest BABIP among hitters with at least 300 PAs, fourth among left-handed hitters. His HR/FB ratio was also nearly double league average. His 2018 production is not sustainable. 

 

There are fewer concerns about Austin's balls in play, but simply getting the bat on the ball is a big issue for him too. And how useful is a platoon bat against lefties? Max Kepler led the team in plate appearances last season, is a lefty and still only racked up 167 plate appearances against southpaws last season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You need to make room for Adrianza, too, because the Twins aren't going into the season without a second infielder who can play SS.

The Brewers used Schoop to fill in a bit at SS down the stretch this year. I don't know if he was any good, but I think that kind of flexibility might be what Brian is referring to. (Plus a willingness to use the DL and AAA guys when appropriate.)

[Nick Nelson]

 

There are fewer concerns about Austin's balls in play, but simply getting the bat on the ball is a big issue for him too. And how useful is a platoon bat against lefties? Max Kepler led the team in plate appearances last season, is a lefty and still only racked up 167 plate appearances against southpaws last season.

Well, Austin managed to get 101 PA against LHP while playing in just 69 games, so... potentially quite useful. He can start against southpaws and pinch-hit for guys like Kepler or Castro against nasty late-inning LH relievers. It's the kind of luxury you can afford when not dedicating a roster spot to someone who is incapable of playing defense anywhere.

 

Nobody's suggesting Austin bat exclusively against LHPs — a 50/50 split sounds about right, with more opportunities against righties if he earns it. 

 

I figured the idea with this front office was to identify undervalued or overlooked assets elsewhere and turn them into valuable components of their rebuilding effort — thus the frantic waiver claims and deadline deals for prospects. If we're just going to shove those guys aside when they've shown real success and promise, in favor of a 38-year-old free agent, I'm just not really sure what we're doing here.

[Tom Froemming]

 

He can start against southpaws and pinch-hit for guys like Kepler or Castro against nasty late-inning LH relievers. It's the kind of luxury you can afford when not dedicating a roster spot to someone who is incapable of playing defense anywhere.

But when are you ever going to pinch hit Tyler Austin and then leave him in the game?

 

Are you letting him play right field in a close game? I'm not. The only other option would be a double switch to put him at first, meaning you lose both the guy you're pinch hitting for plus whoever is playing 1B from the game. There'd be no reason to do that.

[USAFChief]

But when are you ever going to pinch hit Tyler Austin and then leave him in the game?

 

Are you letting him play right field in a close game? I'm not. The only other option would be a double switch to put him at first, meaning you lose both the guy you're pinch hitting for plus whoever is playing 1B from the game. There'd be no reason to do that.

Not to mention, if you bring in Austin to PH for Kepler, the opposing manager is free to bring in a RH reliever unless it’s the pitchers first hitter faced.

[DocBauer]

At risk of repeating myself, I'm OK with signing Cruz for obvious reasons. I'd still prefer McCutchen or Brantley as they are good, younger, can actually play the OF corners, and any forwarding thinking manager should be able to find a way to play all 5 OF on a regular basis between OF/1B/DH. Besides Kepler being an occasional option at 1B, I'd fit Cave with a 1B glove for ST and just say "here, give it a shot and let's see how you do." I'd also make sure Rosario has an infielders glove and work him at 2B, which he played for a year in the minors, and at 3B, which he did for part of 1 game in 2018, just to see if he could be an emergency option.

 

But despite McCutchen or Brantley being my choices, I'm OK with Cruz. Even with some regression, he's going to bring power, production, experience, and professional AB.

 

In either scenario, barring injury, there just isn't room, IMO, for Cron AND Austin. I still feel the Cron signing was a good move. He is still a mkre proven, experienced option than Austin. And I like Austin. I would love to see a full season from him to see what you have. He has the potential to flounder, but with power, or develop. But again, barring injury and roster shuffling, either he or Cron would have to go.

 

Yes, there really is a way you could house all 3 guys, especially if Austin could prove to be at least servicable in a corner OF spot. But it leaves Adrianza as the one and only reserve infielder! So trade or otherwise, someone has to go via trade or DFA, unless there is some small chance Austin could lass through waivers and go to Rochester.

 

Cruz, or an OF, we improve the lineup. But if I really want the best TEAM for next season, I'm looking at another infield addition. Some have mentioned Murphy. Brian laid out some trade scenarios. I'd be interested in 31yo Yangervis Solarte coming off a down season. He's played all across the diamond, even 42 games at 1B, and spot action in the OF.

 

Sign Cruz, though I prefer an OF, make a decision before ST is over on Austin/Cron, but sign another quality infielder. I LOVE Astudillo and think he belongs and deserves a spot! BUT, there are injuries and bumps in the road. What's wrong with depth and him beginning the season at Rochester?

[GP830]

Interesting thought. I wonder if Rosario is an answer at 3rd. His speed is obviously not what it used to be in the OF, and he definitely has the arm for 3rd. When Sano becomes the 1B, Rosario comes to 3rd, Polanco is at 2B, and perhaps Lewis and Kiriloff are up at that point to take over in the OF and SS, respectively. 

 

Totally out the box, but the notion of unconventional moves sent me spiraling. 

[Battle ur tail off]

Rosario runs well. He plays the outfield well too. I'm not saying your idea wouldn't work, but I think the guy has plenty of speed to play a corner outfield spot, doesn't he?

 

[jmlease1]

 

Based on the fact that Nelson Cruz has actually been a really good Major League hitter. Based on the fact that you can't just assume two guys would be able to stay sharp being platooned. Based on the fact that we're dealing with tiny samples of Austin and Cave and a mammoth amount of data on Cruz.

 

Austin and Cave are every bit as likely to get worse than they are to get better. Some guys do regress once there's a book out on them. Neither of them take good at bats, which is a big cause for concern.

 

In your scenario, Cave plays the majority of the time. I'm worried he's going to be Danny Santana 2.0. Considering his walk and strikeout rate, nobody should be giving Cave anything to hit. If pitchers adjust and that .363 BABIP drops, you're not left with much upside. That was the 10th-highest BABIP among hitters with at least 300 PAs, fourth among left-handed hitters. His HR/FB ratio was also nearly double league average. His 2018 production is not sustainable. 

 

There are fewer concerns about Austin's balls in play, but simply getting the bat on the ball is a big issue for him too. And how useful is a platoon bat against lefties? Max Kepler led the team in plate appearances last season, is a lefty and still only racked up 167 plate appearances against southpaws last season.

 

I think this is the problem with both Cave & Austin. Their approach at the plate is a little suspect: what worked for them last season maybe not be viable consistently. It's easier to give Cave more rope, because he has positional flexibility: you can drop him out into any of the spots in the OF and feel fine about him defensively. Austin looks serviceable at 1B, but otherwise he's DHing it.

 

Oh, btw, Cave's BABIP against RHP is .382. Small Sample Size? Good utilization of his speed? Ability to hit 'em where they ain't? I dunno, but there's a reason we talk about the sophomore slump and I fear it in his case. I still like Cave as a 4th OF option; he's helpful in a lot of ways to balance the lineup, give guys a rest, play solid D, etc.

 

But Nelson Cruz hasn't had an OBP under .333 in 6 years. Neither Cave nor Austin has cleared .320 in their careers, and could very easily regress. Even with a pessimistic further age regression, Cruz is likely to have an OBP around .330 and SLG around .485  (which would be the 2nd worst year in his career since becoming a full-time player).

[Riverbrian]

Interesting thought. I wonder if Rosario is an answer at 3rd. His speed is obviously not what it used to be in the OF, and he definitely has the arm for 3rd. When Sano becomes the 1B, Rosario comes to 3rd, Polanco is at 2B, and perhaps Lewis and Kiriloff are up at that point to take over in the OF and SS, respectively.

 

Totally out the box, but the notion of unconventional moves sent me spiraling.

I have no idea but if this thought is explored as a possibility and not simply dismissed because of typical baseball conventions of strict roles and speciality that has been happening for decades.

 

It creates room to bring on a DH only like Cruz. Because now Rosario can fill in for Sano after the bad slide lands him on the DL.

 

This is why I keep repeating myself on the importance of moving this direction.

 

I’m not talking about forcing a player not capable of playing a position adequately.

 

I’m talking about guys like this not being identified because they have been locked into positions.

 

Again... no idea if Rosario is capable as an IF but if he is or was as a 2B in the minor leagues. The advantage was wasted and resulted in more Taylor Motters on the roster than necessary.

 

I simply don’t know if Rosario was moved off 2B because he wasn’t capable or because OF was the quickest path to the majors because of the presence of Brian Dozier.

 

But I do know that teams will move players to different positions because that’s where the need is and I do know that most team will leave them at the 2nd position for consistency and the book on the original is closed forever.

[Minfidel]

An impact bat is going to cost you something (and it should). If the price of writing Cruz in everyday in the 4th or 5th spot is an intriguing, but incomplete, player like Austin, then I pay it, especially with the prospects in the pipeline. 

Bingo. In a vacuum, Cruz brings a impact bat to our lineup but not without the expense of someone else. If Austin has to be dumped for it, it happens, I get it. But I do think people need to understand that there's no way in 2018 baseball you can fit all of those one dimensional pieces onto a roster