Article: Standing Pat as a Strategy

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

welcome to the site. If the Dodgers will give the Twins one of their top catching prospects for taking Kemp, I do that. They can have prospect number 30 or so in return.

Thanks Mike. I've been a regular TD reader for years. I was a regular poster on twinsdotcom but for some reason I among others can no longer post on that site.

 

Will Smith as a return for taking Kemp would interest me a lot.

[Tomj14]

 

Yeah, the goal is to win, but if you think you can get a “well above average” return from dealing him, why not?? Besides, we should be building our rotation around Berrios, Graterol, and Romero, not an inconsistent pitcher coming off a career year and is entering his 30’s. At the same time, I do understand locking him up now for the right price may be a smart move, but if it’s for typical FA money, I don’t want any part of that.

Honest question, how do you build a rotation around a guy that hasn't pitched above high A, and a another with 55 2/3 innings in the majors?

I am a huge Graterol Fan, but lets be honest he isn't going to be good enough to build around until 2021 (fingers crossed he is ever good enough to build around), and Romero probably 2020.

[Vanimal46]

welcome to the site. If the Dodgers will give the Twins one of their top catching prospects for taking Kemp, I do that. They can have prospect number 30 or so in return.

Sounds like they're willing to trade Puig. I'd be in on that.

[ChrisKnutson]

Honest question, how do you build a rotation around a guy that hasn't pitched above high A, and a another with 55 2/3 innings in the majors?

I am a huge Graterol Fan, but lets be honest he isn't going to be good enough to build around until 2021 (fingers crossed he is ever good enough to build around), and Romero probably 2020.

Not saying they’re gonna be a studs right away, but don’t be surprised when Romero’s first full season is much like Berrios’ in 2017 (maybe better) and Graterol’s making starts in September. And because these three all have the potential to have long successful careers, locking them up to early extensions may not be such a bad idea.

[Einheri]

 

Thanks Mike. I've been a regular TD reader for years. I was a regular poster on twinsdotcom but for some reason I among others can no longer post on that site.

 

Will Smith as a return for taking Kemp would interest me a lot.

I wrote Twins dot com, and they basically said MAYBE next year would LOOK INTO allowing readers to post again.  Sigh… I miss the crowd we had there posting regularly.

Edited December 23, 2018 by Einheri

[IndianaTwin]

Dear Santa Falvine: 

 

Do you read the New York Post? 

George A. King III reports that David Robertson is looking for a three-year contract.

According to King, so far most interested teams have only been willing to offer a two-year pact. The 33-year-old hurler compiled a 3.23 ERA and 91/26 K/BB ratio across 69 2/3 innings with the Yankees during the 2018 campaign. The Red Sox and Phillies are known to have interest in his services.
Source: New York Post

 

Santa, I have been very, very good. Please be the team willing to go three years and give me a shiny reliever wrapped up with a spiffy bow. I promise I will be very good next year too and not send you any more of those Nigerian prince emails queued up in my Out box.

 

-IT

 

[darin617]

Standing Pat equals tanking.

[S.]

 

Standing Pat equals tanking.

Tanking usually results in good draft picks, where as I think we're probably going to be stuck in no man's land where we're not good enough to compete and not bad enough to get a good position in the draft.

[Thegrin]

I would be frustrated with anything but standing pat.  Let's give Buxton & Sano another year.  If they both mature, as expected we are headed to the playoffs. If they don't, we can still be a .500 team.  This team is far from mediocre.  Lets be patient, sit tight and hang on. 2019 will be a thrill ride.  

[S.]

 

I would be frustrated with anything but standing pat.  Let's give Buxton & Sano another year.  If they both mature, as expected we are headed to the playoffs. If they don't, we can still be a .500 team.  This team is far from mediocre.  Lets be patient, sit tight and hang on. 2019 will be a thrill ride.  

A .500 team is the definition of mediocre, and Buxton and Sano "maturing" isn't suddenly going to turn us into legit playoff contenders with our current roster. How many position players do we have that are above average for their positions? Eddie Rosario is the only one who comes to mind at the moment. How many pitchers do we have that are above average? 4? You're telling me you're looking at this roster and you'd be frustrated if they added some more actual talent? Last season Jake Cave was our 7th highest WAR player (including pitchers) and Grossman was our 8th. 4th and 5th respectively for position players, with 1.5 WAR each. If we were far from mediocre, Cave and Grossman wouldn't be in our top 5 best position players.

Edited December 24, 2018 by S.

[Vanimal46]

Tanking usually results in good draft picks, where as I think we're probably going to be stuck in no man's land where we're not good enough to compete and not bad enough to get a good position in the draft.

If people think there are too many good teams ahead of the Twins, I hate to break it to them... There are more teams ahead of them in prime position to lose 100 games.

[old nurse]

 

A .500 team is the definition of mediocre, and Buxton and Sano "maturing" isn't suddenly going to turn us into legit playoff contenders with our current roster. How many position players do we have that are above average for their positions? Eddie Rosario is the only one who comes to mind at the moment. How many pitchers do we have that are above average? 4? You're telling me you're looking at this roster and you'd be frustrated if they added some more actual talent? Last season Jake Cave was our 7th highest WAR player (including pitchers) and Grossman was our 8th. 4th and 5th respectively for position players, with 1.5 WAR each. If we were far from mediocre, Cave and Grossman wouldn't be in our top 5 best position players.

fwar likes a lot of Twins players than bwar.  One player that fwar does not like is Grossman.

[old nurse]

 

If people think there are too many good teams ahead of the Twins, I hate to break it to them... There are more teams ahead of them in prime position to lose 100 games.

Orioles, Rangers, and Royals are the race for the bottom.  Lat year 8 teams had better records. The climb over the Indians is just as steep as the climb over any other team to get to the wild card.

[Vanimal46]

Orioles, Rangers, and Royals are the race for the bottom. Lat year 8 teams had better records. The climb over the Indians is just as steep as the climb over any other team to get to the wild card.

Teams not trying to win:

 

KC

CHI

DET

BAL

TOR

SEA

TEX

MIA

CIN

PIT

SF

SD

ARI

 

And others will join the group later this year. Maybe even the Twins!

[darin617]

 

Tanking usually results in good draft picks, where as I think we're probably going to be stuck in no man's land where we're not good enough to compete and not bad enough to get a good position in the draft.

Attendance has dropped so much every year. A straight out tanking season will be very hard to get people to come back until like mid May if not June in 2020 or 2021 when they actually start winning again.

 

You can have the high draft picks but you still need to get lucky 9 times out of 10 to get a star.

 

As well as the fact that tanking is the new "in thing" in MLB so it would be a race to the bottom.

 

Not worth it.

[S.]

 

Attendance has dropped so much every year. A straight out tanking season will be very hard to get people to come back until like mid May if not June in 2020 or 2021 when they actually start winning again.

 

You can have the high draft picks but you still need to get lucky 9 times out of 10 to get a star.

 

As well as the fact that tanking is the new "in thing" in MLB so it would be a race to the bottom.

 

Not worth it.

Yeah, I'm certainly not an advocate for it, at least not with the current state of the central. Was a statement on where I think we currently stand, but I personally want us to sign some good players and if Buxton and Sano and all our prospects pan out, then that'd be even better. We can trade some to fill in other positions of need if we have the luck of having a surplus of good players for the same position. No such thing as too many good players.

[Thegrin]

Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Castro would all be top players in any roster & we have 4 solid starters that could have clutch seasons.  I'll take my chances with this lineup, thank you.  

[old nurse]

 

Teams not trying to win:

KC
CHI
DET
BAL
TOR
SEA
TEX
MIA
CIN
PIT
SF
SD
ARI

And others will join the group later this year. Maybe even the Twins!

You said 100 loss teams.

[jorgenswest]

Teams not trying to win:

KC

CHI

DET

BAL

TOR

SEA

TEX

MIA

CIN

PIT

SF

SD

ARI

And others will join the group later this year. Maybe even the Twins!

What is the objective measure for “not trying to win”?

[Vanimal46]

What is the objective measure for “not trying to win”?

A team that has a better chance of losing 90 games than winning 90 games.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

This would also be the thread to point out that the long time Blue Jays GM Pat Gillick was nicknamed "Stand Pat," for not making offseason moves despite having moderately successful teams. When he did start making big offseason moves, the team won two World Series.

[S.]

 

Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Castro would all be top players in any roster & we have 4 solid starters that could have clutch seasons.  I'll take my chances with this lineup, thank you.  

Are you basing this on their 2018 stats or just some hypothetical situation where they all play to their absolute ceiling? Because 2018 Buxton and Sano couldn't even make the Twins roster for most of the year, so they certainly wouldn't have been top players on any other roster. Rosario is absolutely a high quality outfielder, no arguments there. Kepler was also solid. Castro is not even remotely a "top player" 

 

In 2018, Castro produced -0.2 fWAR. He is the 69th ranked catcher by fWAR. Both Astudillo and Garver produced a higher fWAR than him. If you don't like WAR, then I think his .143 BA, .257 OBP, and .495 OPS speak for themselves.

 

When you say 4 solid starters, who is your 4th? Pineda? You're ready to call him solid even though he hasn't pitched a single inning for the Twins, and hasn't pitched a single inning in general in over a year?

 

I understand being optimistic, but there is no metric by which Buxton, Sano, and Castro would be top players on any roster at this point in their careers. Could Buxton and Sano become top players on any roster? Yes, it is certainly possible and I hope they do so. But as of right now, Sano is coming off a rough season (to put it nicely), and Buxton is coming off of a complete failure of a season, and your statement that they would be top players on any roster is 100% false.

[jorgenswest]

I don’t think any reasonable projection would be based on a single season and certainly not a season where plate appearances were limited.

[S.]

 

I don’t think any reasonable projection would be based on a single season and certainly not a season where plate appearances were limited.

Ok, then by what reasonable projections and/or multi season metrics are Buxton and Sano top players?

[jorgenswest]

I would think projections will be 2-3 WAR. Starting players but not stars.

[S.]

It looks like Steamer is predicting 2.2 WAR for Buxton and 2.5 WAR for Sano, so that jives with your expectation. And I think most people would probably be pretty happy to get that sort of production from them after this last season, but that still would not qualify them as "top players in any roster" as the other poster put it.

 

At the end of the day though, I don't think projections should stop us from acquiring other good players, which is my main issue here. Lots of prospects and players project to be stars. A lot less achieve that success. Lots of people love to talk about not wanting to block prospects or not wanting to sign good players to multi year contracts because you might have some prospect who pans out in a few years. But for every prospect that becomes a great MLB player, many more fizzle out and never amount to anything, or become replacement level players, or decent players but don't live up to their projections. My frustration isn't so much with Sano and Buxton specifically (though they definitely frustrated me plenty last year), but more the idea that standing pat is a good idea with this roster. Go get some more good players. If in a year or two years all of our current roster is playing well AND we got a bunch of prospects knocking on the door, then that's awesome. If you have multiple players for the same position who are genuinely good, there will always be teams interested. Players can be traded. Players get injured. Having lots of good players isn't a problem and I genuinely don't understand why lots of people on this board seem so averse to adding additional talent to a roster that features more than its fair share of mediocrity.

 

Also, just to add - I assume it's a given but wanted to specify that these points aren't targeted at you personally, as I'm not going to claim I can remember who specifically has said what in all these offseason threads.

[DocBauer]

It looks like Steamer is predicting 2.2 WAR for Buxton and 2.5 WAR for Sano, so that jives with your expectation. And I think most people would probably be pretty happy to get that sort of production from them after this last season, but that still would not qualify them as "top players in any roster" as the other poster put it.

 

At the end of the day though, I don't think projections should stop us from acquiring other good players, which is my main issue here. Lots of prospects and players project to be stars. A lot less achieve that success. Lots of people love to talk about not wanting to block prospects or not wanting to sign good players to multi year contracts because you might have some prospect who pans out in a few years. But for every prospect that becomes a great MLB player, many more fizzle out and never amount to anything, or become replacement level players, or decent players but don't live up to their projections. My frustration isn't so much with Sano and Buxton specifically (though they definitely frustrated me plenty last year), but more the idea that standing pat is a good idea with this roster. Go get some more good players. If in a year or two years all of our current roster is playing well AND we got a bunch of prospects knocking on the door, then that's awesome. If you have multiple players for the same position who are genuinely good, there will always be teams interested. Players can be traded. Players get injured. Having lots of good players isn't a problem and I genuinely don't understand why lots of people on this board seem so averse to adding additional talent to a roster that features more than its fair share of mediocrity.

 

Also, just to add - I assume it's a given but wanted to specify that these points aren't targeted at you personally, as I'm not going to claim I can remember who specifically has said what in all these offseason threads.

Excellent and very smart post!

 

The problem, as I see it, is that the organization is stuck between a rock and a hard place right now. And I'm not talking about payroll per se, or the ongoing debate whether ownership is cheap or not. I'm talking about a real evaluation of the roster and talent on hand. There are absolutely questions that need to be answered. There is hope and potential to be met. And I believe 100% in depth, versatility and options! This includes having a AAA roster with prospects and AAA A guys who can help. But there were just so many things that went wrong in 2018 from injury, attitude, suspension, etc, how do you quantify what to add?

 

In other words, you want depth and options for Sano and Buxton, and the entire roster. But you still have a limited roster to work with, and you can't bet against the talented young guys you have can you?

 

There is every reason to believe Sano and Buxton will remain forever hurt, or out of shape, or never recognize crap out of the zone. Every reason to believe Kepler will never put it altogether, or that Polanco will never put a full season together. But there is also every reason to believe that each and every one of these guys will be healthy and ready to go at 25yo and play to their ability, or at least start climbing the stairs to their ceiling.

 

IMO, the best and smartest thing you could do is to get on these guys, their talent, potential, flashes they have shown, trust in your new manager and his staff, and augment the roster. Add at least one proven, veteran bat. Falvey himself has talked recently about what that kind of veteran presence can mean to a lineup and roster. Is that Cruz, or Lowrie, or someone else? Not sure who the right guy is, but bring in that GUY. Next, bring in at least one quality RP to stabilize the pen and show how to get it done.

 

Just those two moves alone, with talent on hand and healthy and with progression, could make a world of difference. Despite everything that went wrong in 2018, we lost something like 26 1 run games. How deflating is That?

 

The bad news is we are still waiting for health and breakouts. The good news is, even with a restrained budget, there is room to add 2-4 additional BP and player options to add talent and depth.

[Thegrin]

Its almost as if some people only read stats and don't watch the games.  I know that isn't true, but it sounds like it.  

-Sano (when healthy) could have a thunderous bat and a bazooka arm, and end up being the most sought after 3rd baseman in the majors.

-We saw what Buxton can do in the field.  When he finds his hitting stroke (and he will) he will be get MVP consideration.  

-Polanco has turned into a solid fielder and a strong bat at SS.

-Schoop, if he returns to 2017 levels would be an all star.

-Kepler and Rosario are proven excellent fielders and their bats can carry them to the top of the stat sheet.  -Who knows what a year off will do for Castro, but his fielding and pitch calling and framing will make our pitching staff stronger and a .250 average is not out of reach for him.

 

I know this is more optimism than some folks can take, but we've watched them do it.  The talent is there and it is young.  Lets enjoy this bunch we have and be glad they are giving them another chance to redeem themselves.  

[Mr. Brooks]

Its almost as if some people only read stats and don't watch the games. I know that isn't true, but it sounds like it.

-Sano (when healthy) could have a thunderous bat and a bazooka arm, and end up being the most sought after 3rd baseman in the majors.

-We saw what Buxton can do in the field. When he finds his hitting stroke (and he will) he will be get MVP consideration.

-Polanco has turned into a solid fielder and a strong bat at SS.

-Schoop, if he returns to 2017 levels would be an all star.

-Kepler and Rosario are proven excellent fielders and their bats can carry them to the top of the stat sheet. -Who knows what a year off will do for Castro, but his fielding and pitch calling and framing will make our pitching staff stronger and a .250 average is not out of reach for him.

 

I know this is more optimism than some folks can take, but we've watched them do it. The talent is there and it is young. Lets enjoy this bunch we have and be glad they are giving them another chance to redeem themselves.

Nothing wrong with optimism. But, I think it's a little unfair to suggest that people who don't share your level of optimism must not be watching the games. There has been plenty of visual evidence suggesting less optimistic results from all of those players.

[Mike Sixel]

I wish the front office shared your optimism and surrounded the core with a good player or four.