Article: Standing Pat as a Strategy

[Danchat]

 

Every player signed so far has received more than people projected. And the Rays just signed a guy for $15MM per year......so, maybe there weren't fundamental changes after all. And, how did signing all those bargains work out last year?

That doesn't justify overspending. Just because bargains didn't work last year doesn't mean they won't this year. Hopefully they will make a couple bigger signings alongside some cheaper moves. I do think they're going to get one higher-tier reliever like Familia.

[Riverbrian]

 

Had to like and quote as it carries over some thoughts I just put down in the "Cruz" thread.

I still like McCutchen or Brantley...they make more sense to me roster-wise...bjt I definitely see the appeal for Cruz. Either move improves the lineup, either move means some roster juggling as you can't just have Adrianza...who I actually like...as your lone infield reserve. Barring injury and roster fluctuation, either Austin or Cron is moved. (Unless Austin could somehow sneak through waivers).

THEN, you NEED to add another infielder. You mention Castellanos here, and mentioned other trade candidates in the other thread. All logical moves. What about Solarte, coming off a bad season, as a FA signing? Regardless of Cruz, or the OF many of us may prefer, you make some sort of move/decision on Austin or Cron. You make the move for an additional infielder. You have a pretty interesting roster, IMO. No room for Astudillo, who belongs, but has options and is probably the first guy recalled. What's wrong with depth and options?

Once again, in regard to the original topic, "standing pat" doesn't mean doing nothing. Even if the payroll does move back some, we are seriously linked to a potential Cruz signing, even after a pair of additions. I don't see this as penny-pinching. And the market is RIPE with bullpen pieces, and much depth.

 

I forgot about Solarte... Yeah... He's an upgrade over Adrianza. And I actually kinda like Adrianza as well but I'm not believing in a higher ceiling than what we've seen. Hope I'm wrong. 

[frightwig]

 

Minnesota is a great place to live. But most people can't comprehend that until they live here.
Plus, these two are young guys. Minnesota can't compete with the lifestyle that they can find in an LA or NY or Chicago, etc.
Any contract that we can offer them, one of those markets can easily match.

And, other teams have good young players and prospects too. "We might be good someday" can't hold a candle to, "we won 90 games last year."

I'll believe that interest is tepid when April comes and they're begging for a one year deal.

 

The Mets are an ongoing mess, and recently insisted on Seattle taking back the Bruce & Swarzak contracts to allow New York to afford Cano's salary. The Yankees claim not to be interested, and would have to unload some salary to stay under the tax threshold. The Red Sox are already $33M above the tax threshold. There was talk today about a Dodgers-Reds trade, but LA needs a partner to let them dump salary to allow them to make other moves and stay under the threshold. The Angels aren't really in a good position to take on another big contract right now. The Phillies look less likely to go hard after Harper or Machado after acquiring McCutcheon and Segura. The Giants are shopping their veterans around. The Cubs are about $19M above the tax threshold.

 

That would leave the White Sox and anybody else with money to spend and a desire to make a big push this winter. Of course the White Sox are generally more cost-conscious than other big city clubs, and they're in the middle of a full-scale youth movement, besides.

 

Of course Harper or Machado might wind up with one of those clubs, anyway, but it's not an easy, foregone conclusion. If the Twins were interested, they'd stand a fair chance.

[dgwills]

Nobody likes a 10+ year rebuild, but things are what they are. If Buxton and Sano don't work out it may be a 14 year rebuild. What can you do?

[Mike Sixel]

Nobody likes a 10+ year rebuild, but things are what they are. If Buxton and Sano don't work out it may be a 14 year rebuild. What can you do?

Stop caring and only comment here as a way to have something to do. Certainly stop buying tickets.

[DocBauer]

I forgot about Solarte... Yeah... He's an upgrade over Adrianza. And I actually kinda like Adrianza as well but I'm not believing in a higher ceiling than what we've seen. Hope I'm wrong.

 

FWIW...I think his glove and bat work really well when he plays on a regular basis, just not daily.

 

Which is why we so desperately need another guy to help out,fill in, etc.

[bird]

 

If giving out 1 year deals was the plan going into the offseason then I really don’t under stand why the FO didn’t trade Gibson and Odorizzi at the deadline last season. However, with the Winter Meetings going on, the opportunity still presents itself with playoff teams like the Yankees, A’s, and the Astros all in the market for starting pitching. And because you can’t predict injuries, a down year, or the possibility that the last season was an anomaly, right now might be the last chance to capitalize on Gibby and Odorizzi’s value.

Getting value out of Odorizzi may be tough since he’s expected to make $9.4M in 2019, which is a little expensive for mediocrity, but it’s still possible depending on who else you add to the deal (Cave/Hildy). However, when it comes to dealing Gibby, there’s no reason why he wouldn’t bring back a quality return. He’s coming off a career year and is expected to make $7.9M, which is more than reasonable for the way he pitched last season, which is why Gibby should atleast be worth a B prospect and a average ML ready piece.

And since Oakland literally has no SP depth (or quality arms), and isn’t really in the FA market looking for starting pitching, they seem like the perfect match (Richie Martin/Frankie Montas/Yerdel Vargas).

 

The goal of the FO, for 2019, is to give Baldelli a chance to win. I agree with the idea of looking to move assets before their value declines. It remains my third biggest gripe about the old FO. 

 

Why would they create ozone-sized holes on the roster? Which player steps in to possibly give you the #2-3 rotation performance you can bet on from Gibson? And fine, maybe Mejia, Gonsalves, or Stewart perform better than Odor Easy in 2019 (my own bet), but why not wait for one or more of these things to happen and then move him at the deadline? If someone will pay Lynn $10M in each of the next three friggin' years, then some desperate team might give up that decent B prospect for Odor Easy at the deadline. But I sure hope that if this happens it's because we have an abundance of better options!

 

Gibby is worth a lot more than some middling B prospect and a league average player today. He's well above league average. Maybe he falters or gets injured, but that could happen to Berrios too, so I'm trying to lock Gibson up if I'm Falvey. And then I'm hoping he sustains his productivity and settles in as my 4th best starter as I continue to upgrade this rotation.

Edited December 13, 2018 by birdwatcher

[Mike Sixel]

I'm also confused by your posts. While I have asked for the occasional really big contract, what I've posted most of that they not only sign over year bargains. That they could trade for a player like millwaukee did. Or sign players to three or four year deals. No place have I said those have to be the most expensive guys only. What I've said is that only signing one year deals, or the occasional two year deal, leads to having to fill the holes over and over. For example, I praised the Castro signing. Still do. Just as I would have praised a Realmuto trade last year, though am less interested this year.

 

Your posts also don't answer my question, is not adding good players really good if you have to rely on the AAA players they've relied on the last five to ten years? Because that certainly isn't leading to winning.

[djvang]

 

There are legitimate superstars and stars in this farm system. Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, maybe Graterol (gonna need more proof before I label him superstar future) and I think Rooker, Diaz, Tyler Wells will be stars. I get the strategy instead of chasing shiny pennies looking to do it today. This COULD be a situation where a true rebuilding and actual successful development of a team occurs.

Careful. That's what we heard about Buxton and Sano. I'm old enough to remember pitchers Gasser & Baumgarner who they wouldn't trade for anyone. Neither even made it to the majors.

Edited December 13, 2018 by djvang

[Mike Sixel]

 

Careful. That's what we heard about Buxton and Sano. I'm old enough to remember pitchers Gasser & Baumgarner who they wouldn't trade for anyone. Neither even made it to the majors.

 

Couldn't trade Hicks either. Though he eventually turned out.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm also confused by your posts. While I have asked for the occasional really big contract, what I've posted most of that they not only sign over year bargains. That they could trade for a player like millwaukee did. Or sign players to three or four year deals. No place have I said those have to be the most expensive guys only. What I've said is that only signing one year deals, or the occasional two year deal, leads to having to fill the holes over and over. For example, I praised the Castro signing. Still do. Just as I would have praised a Realmuto trade last year, though am less interested this year.

Your posts also don't answer my question, is not adding good players really good if you have to rely on the AAA players they've relied on the last five to ten years? Because that certainly isn't leading to winning.

 

Where to start ….

Let’s start with one year bargains. When you started beating that drum I pointed out that only one of the players (Lynn) was a 1 year deal. Morrison and Rodney had team option attached which is even better than a two year deal. You ignored these facts and continue to beat this drum.

 

You keep insisting we should sign FA pitchers now because then we will have them when we need them.  I listed all of the free agents SPs listed over the past several years. The FACT is that after the 1st year they have produced an average of 1.3 WAR. Collectively, in 22 season they have produced 3 seasons over 3WAR after the 1stt season while producing 16 seasons of 1.7 or less and 13 seasons of 1WAR or less.

 

How long are going to lean on the Yehlich deal. We would all love to make those deals every day. They are very uncommon. How many deals were made hoping for this result where the player traded for broke out vs performed at his current level and how many busted afterward. There are lots of examples of SPs who were traded that busted. It may have been injury related but the result is still the same. Teams don’t trade break out candidates and we can’t hope for other teams to do the stupid stuff the Marlins have done. That’s why so many teams are interested in Kepler. It would appear they think he is going to break out.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Where to start ….

Let’s start with one year bargains. When you started beating that drum I pointed out that only one of the players (Lynn) was a 1 year deal. Morrison and Rodney had team option attached which is even better than a two year deal. You ignored these facts and continue to beat this drum.

 

You keep insisting we should sign FA pitchers now because then we will have them when we need them.  I listed all of the free agents SPs listed over the past several years. The FACT is that after the 1st year they have produced an average of 1.3 WAR. Collectively, in 22 season they have produced 3 seasons over 3WAR after the 1stt season while producing 16 seasons of 1.7 or less and 13 seasons of 1WAR or less.

 

How long are going to lean on the Yehlich deal. We would all love to make those deals every day. They are very uncommon. How many deals were made hoping for this result where the player traded for broke out vs performed at his current level and how many busted afterward. There are lots of examples of SPs who were traded that busted. It may have been injury related but the result is still the same. Teams don’t trade break out candidates and we can’t hope for other teams to do the stupid stuff the Marlins have done. That’s why so many teams are interested in Kepler. It would appear they think he is going to break out.

 

How many WAR have the AAA pitchers the Twins have used instead of acquiring outside help compiled? Because I guess that's what you are suggesting?

 

And, I'm not only talking about the last three years, nor am I only talking about pitchers, as I literally praised the Castro signing in the post you are responding to. I also said one or two year deals....they were all praised as bargain signings, and they all worked out poorly. Castro was not seen as a bargain, but fair, deal, and he worked out the first year and got hurt. Sometimes players get hurt. Last year I asked for another OF to be signed, so he could sub in and DH. Some of those players worked out last year......and some of them will work out this year.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

It's ironic that you are among the most ardent people here for signing the biggest contracts and you also frequently go to the I hope nobody buys tickets response. Good plan. More revenue volatility and dependence on contention will get them to spend more money Mike.

 

I have shown you in considerable detail how often the deals you promote fail. You simply ignore it. Then, you insist timing dies not matter and I show you that the average WAR when removing the first year is 1.3. Most people see hard facts and question the strategy. You just ignore and hard fact that does support you fascination with spending big money. You do the same thing with international free agents without any evidence that strategy is successful.

 

If you are going to beat this drum to death, provide evidence that is not anecdotal these strategies would actually help the team. 

 

What do you suggest as an option to get good ballplayers in here then? Wait for AAA help and sign washed up guys and dumpster dives? Why dive for junk? Why not let your home grown guys fill those holes if you are so confident in them? Save the money and use it for high end talent, rather than spread it out on alot of middling guys.

 

I don't get what you want either. Will some FA deals or trades fail? Yep! They sure will. What about minor league guys? How many of these fail to produce? Lots, right?

 

I don't think anyone here is opining that the Twins need to spend huge all the time, bring in the biggest free agents, etc. People just want talented players on this team. That might mean spending some money on a free agent once in awhile. Or "gasp" trading a few of your top prospects. Imagine the return they could have had trading Buxton and Sano when they were lighting up AA? HUGE

 

This team hasn't produced a high end pitcher since Santana and really hasn't had a bopper come out of their minor league system either since Morneau. When there is a chance to get a young stud pitcher or hitter, I'm fine trading away a A or AA guy you think has a "chance" to be a stud. I'm also fine with signing a guy to a 3 or 4 year deal for big money.

 

 

[ChrisKnutson]

The goal of the FO, for 2019, is to give Baldelli a chance to win. I agree with the idea of looking to move assets before their value declines. It remains my third biggest gripe about the old FO.

 

Why would they create ozone-sized holes on the roster? Which player steps in to possibly give you the #2-3 rotation performance you can bet on from Gibson? And fine, maybe Mejia, Gonsalves, or Stewart perform better than Odor Easy in 2019 (my own bet), but why not wait for one or more of these things to happen and then move him at the deadline? If someone will pay Lynn $10M in each of the next three friggin' years, then some desperate team might give up that decent B prospect for Odor Easy at the deadline. But I sure hope that if this happens it's because we have an abundance of better options!

 

Gibby is worth a lot more than some middling B prospect and a league average player today. He's well above league average. Maybe he falters or gets injured, but that could happen to Berrios too, so I'm trying to lock Gibson up if I'm Falvey. And then I'm hoping he sustains his productivity and settles in as my 4th best starter as I continue to upgrade this rotation.

Yeah, the goal is to win, but if you think you can get a “well above average” return from dealing him, why not?? Besides, we should be building our rotation around Berrios, Graterol, and Romero, not an inconsistent pitcher coming off a career year and is entering his 30’s. At the same time, I do understand locking him up now for the right price may be a smart move, but if it’s for typical FA money, I don’t want any part of that. Edited December 13, 2018 by ChrisKnutson

[Mr. Brooks]

The Mets are an ongoing mess, and recently insisted on Seattle taking back the Bruce & Swarzak contracts to allow New York to afford Cano's salary. The Yankees claim not to be interested, and would have to unload some salary to stay under the tax threshold. The Red Sox are already $33M above the tax threshold. There was talk today about a Dodgers-Reds trade, but LA needs a partner to let them dump salary to allow them to make other moves and stay under the threshold. The Angels aren't really in a good position to take on another big contract right now. The Phillies look less likely to go hard after Harper or Machado after acquiring McCutcheon and Segura. The Giants are shopping their veterans around. The Cubs are about $19M above the tax threshold.

 

That would leave the White Sox and anybody else with money to spend and a desire to make a big push this winter. Of course the White Sox are generally more cost-conscious than other big city clubs, and they're in the middle of a full-scale youth movement, besides.

 

Of course Harper or Machado might wind up with one of those clubs, anyway, but it's not an easy, foregone conclusion. If the Twins were interested, they'd stand a fair chance.

All of those teams except Boston rest their luxury tax penalty last year, specifically so they could sign Machado or Harper without significantly penalty.

[akmanak]

Stop caring and only comment here as a way to have something to do. Certainly stop buying tickets.

Great post. Twins are doing what Twins do best and that is nothing. The team isnt improving and will have a losing record again next year because of it.

[S.]

 

If you are going to beat this drum to death, provide evidence that is not anecdotal these strategies would actually help the team. 

Go look at all the teams that have won the World Series. How many of them don't sign good players to long term contracts? How many of those teams that don't sign long term contracts also don't trade their prospects for established major leaguers? 

[labcrazy]

 

"Standing Pat" probably isn't the best description since they have already addressed 2 areas of need but I get the idea, they weren't headline grabbing moves.  We can be assume that at least one bullpen addition happens sometime and it probably won't be Kimbrel caliber.

 

Overall I like the strategy. If a few key guys stay healthy and effective than we can compete.  If they don't we will have plenty of rental options to offer other teams.  Either way we will have a better idea of where our core stands in the bigger picture.

What flavor was that kool-aid?

[SomeGuy]

 

What flavor was that kool-aid?

I take it your on the senseless spending train?  Clog the lineup with expensive aging veterans that are in decline.  Forget about putting together a young core and fill the holes with gum?

[labcrazy]

 

I take it your on the senseless spending train?  Clog the lineup with expensive aging veterans that are in decline.  Forget about putting together a young core and fill the holes with gum?

I'm not on the side of expensive vets who are past their prime. I just don't like this new front office and how they have set this team up for failure simply based on Sano and Buxton. Time to accept they are not going to be what we hoped so lets move on and find some players to help this team. Start with pitching. We have very little to none that is above average in the major leagues.

[USAFChief]

 

I take it your on the senseless spending train?  Clog the lineup with expensive aging veterans that are in decline.  Forget about putting together a young core and fill the holes with gum?

clog the lineup??

 

This is a team that featured, among others, the following names in the 3-4-5 holes last year:

 

Grossman

Garver

Forsythe!!

Eddie Escobar

Max Kepler

Joe Mauer's wet noodle of a bat

 

There is no need to worry about "clogging."

 

Jeebers, I wish there was clogging.

[108Stitches]

 

Careful. That's what we heard about Buxton and Sano. I'm old enough to remember pitchers Gasser & Baumgarner who they wouldn't trade for anyone. Neither even made it to the majors.

Ok look, I don't have a blood oath or money on that or anything lol. OBVIOUSLY it goes without saying that that is pure speculation and opinion, and we all hope it comes true. I'm not of the feeling that you can put all your eggs in the "future" prospects as they mostly seem to be doing. I am saying that I see where they're coming from and frankly it's either going to work great or it could be a total mistake. I heard on MLB network radio today a guy insisting the Twins are real contenders in 2 years, BUT no mater how talented our young guys are, we need the veterans and established stars. I'd like to see them secure a couple of great leaders to assist in what many believe is a talented young crop of guys.

[SomeGuy]

 

I'm not on the side of expensive vets who are past their prime. I just don't like this new front office and how they have set this team up for failure simply based on Sano and Buxton. Time to accept they are not going to be what we hoped so lets move on and find some players to help this team. Start with pitching. We have very little to none that is above average in the major leagues.

Moving on from Buxton and Sano would not be wise.  One was injured the other was recovering from offseason surgery

 

I do agree however that we should not expect them to be what we hoped.  From day 1 they were over hyped.  One MLB executive said it was like having Bryce Harper and Mike Trout on the same team.  A down right stupid assessment.  Mike Trout is the best player of all time, no one else in the majors or minors has that ceiling. 

 

We should not expect the future MVP races to be a two man race between Buxton and Sano but they are serviceable players that should eventually be above average possibly all star level.

[labcrazy]

 

Moving on from Buxton and Sano would not be wise.  One was injured the other was recovering from offseason surgery

 

I do agree however that we should not expect them to be what we hoped.  From day 1 they were over hyped.  One MLB executive said it was like having Bryce Harper and Mike Trout on the same team.  A down right stupid assessment.  Mike Trout is the best player of all time, no one else in the majors or minors has that ceiling. 

 

We should not expect the future MVP races to be a two man race between Buxton and Sano but they are serviceable players that should eventually be above average possibly all star level.

I hope you are right about them but we have been waiting for these two to perform for 3+ years and so far the results are generally poor. Don't see that changing. Now we hear how great Lewis and Kiriloff are going to be. I'm tired of waiting for young players. Time to have a proven major league team. If they end up being great we will even be better at that point if combined with a real major league team already in place.

[SomeGuy]

 

clog the lineup??

 

This is a team that featured, among others, the following names in the 3-4-5 holes last year:

 

Grossman

Garver

Forsythe!!

Eddie Escobar

Max Kepler

Joe Mauer's wet noodle of a bat

 

There is no need to worry about "clogging."

 

Jeebers, I wish there was clogging.

Kepler and Garver are great examples of why you don't clog the lineup.  Combined to just over $1M but gave us 4WAR.

 

We were waiting out Joe Mauer's contract to unclog 1B/DH and a bunch of money.  Escobar was great and should hit 3/4/5.  Grossman was a lineup clog, couldn't field a position but batted well enough to justify wasting DH on him.  Forsythe was only on our team to balance out the money of the Dozier trade.

[USAFChief]

 

Kepler and Garver are great examples of why you don't clog the lineup.  Combined to just over $1M but gave us 4WAR.

 

We were waiting out Joe Mauer's contract to unclog 1B/DH and a bunch of money.  Escobar was great and should hit 3/4/5.  Grossman was a lineup clog, couldn't field a position but batted well enough to justify wasting DH on him.  Forsythe was only on our team to balance out the money of the Dozier trade.

I don't think we have the same definition of "clogged."

 

And if "unclogged" means we have the likes of Garver (.749 OPS) and/or Kepler (.727) somewhere in the middle of the lineup on multiple occasions, then I think there's room for clogging it with Cruz. WAR is such a worthless measure I hate to even consider it, but since you brought it up...do you really think a combined 4 WAR from 2 guys hitting in the middle of your lineup is the way to the World Series?

 

BTW, Escobar wouldn't hit 3/4/5 in any kind of good lineup, either.

[SomeGuy]

 

I don't think we have the same definition of "clogged."

 

And if "unclogged" means we have the likes of Garver (.749 OPS) and/or Kepler (.727) somewhere in the middle of the lineup on multiple occasions, then I think there's room for clogging it with Cruz. WAR is such a worthless measure I hate to even consider it, but since you brought it up...do you really think a combined 4 WAR from 2 guys hitting in the middle of your lineup is the way to the World Series?

 

BTW, Escobar wouldn't hit 3/4/5 in any kind of good lineup, either.

You're right that we have different ideas of lineup clogging if you think Escobar and his OPS of .824 (just behind Joey Votto and Jose Altuve at .837) is a clog.  Not to mention he can play almost anywhere and is pretty affordable. 

 

Where Cruz becomes a lineup clog is when he desires a 3 year deal.  Then in 2020 and 2021 when we are supposed to be getting better we will be forced to roster someone who is past 40 and was already in decline in 2018.

Edited December 14, 2018 by SomeGuy

[USAFChief]

 

You're right that we have different ideas of lineup clogging if you think Escobar and his OPS of .824 (just behind Joey Votto and Jose Altuve at .837) is a clog.  Not to mention he can play almost anywhere and is pretty affordable. 

 

Where Cruz becomes a lineup clog is when he desires a 3 year deal.  Then in 2020 and 2021 when we are supposed to be getting better we will be forced to roster someone who is past 40 and was already in decline in 2018.

I don't believe Eddie Escobar is an .824 OPS hitter. He was for a couple months this year, I'll give you that.

 

Cruz is going to get a 2 year deal, and can be released if he becomes ineffective. It's only money...money that does zero good in Jim Pohlad's pocket. There's a very real possibility he would be the Twins best hitter in 2019.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Lots of clamor for Cruz. Why not talk to the Dodgers about Kemp? He's only 1 year left at 19.25mil. Still a solid bat who can play the field in a pinch. Dodgers need to move him for a shot at Harper. We take on the whole contract for 2019 and get a top prospect thrown in the deal. Smith/Lux/May type. Kemp is another RH bat but so is Cruz. Kemp however is only a one year commit. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Lots of clamor for Cruz. Why not talk to the Dodgers about Kemp? He's only 1 year left at 19.25mil. Still a solid bat who can play the field in a pinch. Dodgers need to move him for a shot at Harper. We take on the whole contract for 2019 and get a top prospect thrown in the deal. Smith/Lux/May type. Kemp is another RH bat but so is Cruz. Kemp however is only a one year commit. 

 

welcome to the site. If the Dodgers will give the Twins one of their top catching prospects for taking Kemp, I do that. They can have prospect number 30 or so in return.