Article: Standing Pat as a Strategy

[KirbyDome89]

 

I said an 80-85 win forecast, not that 80-85 would win the division. A team with an 80-85 win forecast might win 90 (they may also lose 90 ), but perhaps more importantly, they may find themselves in the right circumstances midseason to make some moves. Point being, there's value in staying in that forecast range even when you're working toward longer-term goals.

 

There are only 6 teams in all of MLB who project to 90+ wins for 2019 right now, per Fangraphs. That's elite territory. Obviously we all want the Twins to get into that group too, but it's virtually impossible to move from 80 to 90 on paper in one offseason. If they've got a plan for 90 wins in 2021, and can keep us in 80-85 in the meantime, that's not bad -- although I echo the sentiments of others here that such a 2021 plan might not be achievable without some longer-range talent additions that just these 1-2 year MLB moves (plus the draft and deadline deals).

My point was that the bar needs to be higher than "shoot the middle and hope things break right," if they're serious about winning. A 10 game improvement in one season isn't realistic but it's not unreasonable to expect a continued push towards a 90 game win total. Somebody in the Central is going to win 90+ games. They can still "wait," on the current group while adding long term talent and taking advantage of an incredibly bad division. If things break right for them in that scenario maybe we'll get to enjoy more than 1 game in the playoffs.  

[Battle ur tail off]

 

The Twins have ZERO idea what to expect from Buxton and Sano.

 

Will they be near-all-star level? Or will they be brutal? The problem is that the difference between one or the other is the difference between contention and non-contention. And if you don't know what you're going to get out of your two most important core pieces, do you spend a ton on free agents and trades? You probably don't. It's a wise decision.

 

Doesn't mean it's that much fun. 

 

Too bad, really. With Cleveland cutting salary and the White Sox not quite ready for contention yet this would be a nice window. 

 

ZERO idea? Are you sure about that?

 

I think most of us here have an idea. And by the sounds of what this article states, they have a pretty good idea also. It's not what any of us want to hear, but my guess is that one is softer than Charmin and can't be counted on, and the other is lazy as hell and won't put in the work to improve. 

 

The Twins may have backed the wrong horse with these two. I hope I am wrong. I REALLY want to be wrong, but right now, it ain't lookin good. 

[frightwig]

 

I think some people are exaggerating the risk in this lineup. The Twins finished 5th in the AL in scoring even with all that went wrong. That breakdown also doesn't include Jake Cave, who was arguably their second best hitter as a rookie.

 

They were 6th in in the AL in runs, but 10th in wRC+. And as you've noted, nearly all of their best on-base guys from last year are either gone or on the roster bubble. Jake Cave is another guy with some pop but not a good obp (last season or projected for next year), and he'll probably be just a 4th OF. If he's a regular, it means something has gone wrong for Buxton again, or else Rosario/Kepler, which deeply hurts, and probably kills, their chances, anyway.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My point was that the bar needs to be higher than "shoot the middle and hope things break right," if they're serious about winning. A 10 game improvement in one season isn't realistic but it's not unreasonable to expect a continued push towards a 90 game win total. Somebody in the Central is going to win 90+ games. They can still "wait," on the current group while adding long term talent and taking advantage of an incredibly bad division. If things break right for them in that scenario maybe we'll get to enjoy more than 1 game in the playoffs.  

It's not easy to add long term talent outside of the draft and "sell" trades, but I agree I would like to eventually see some results in that regard with this front office.

 

If you have a bad division, doesn't that mean you don't have to be as aggressive, in a way? I might regret saying this, but Cleveland seems like our only real threat in 2019. If they falter at all, we're in pretty good position, even with our modest/conservative approach (like we almost were at points in 2018). As opposed to, say, the AL East or NL Central, where there have generally been multiple teams ready to prevail should one top dog falter.

 

Obviously we can still seek upgrades and try to close the gap with Cleveland, but maybe it's not such an immediate need to pay Corbin 6/130 right now, or offer Romero in trade for Goldschmidt, etc.

[S.]

 

Or regress back to old Gibson (which I don't believe will happen, but is a risk).

I seriously do not understand why so many people are 100% confident that 2018 Gibson is just the new normal. Hell, even in 2018, his FIP was .5 over his ERA and his WHIP was 1.3. And the two years prior his WHIP was over 1.5 and his ERA was over 5. He has never put together two decent seasons in a row, he's 31 years old. Do I hope he repeats his 2018 performance or manages to improve? Hell yeah, and I think theres a decent chance he will. But it is absurd that people are acting like he is some paragon of consistency and it is a 100% chance that he's going to do so.

 

The top four of the starting rotation is solid.

Do you honestly believe this? Berrios should be good, Gibson is good IF we get 2018 Gibson, garbage if we get 2016 or 2017 Gibson. Odorizzi is a 4th or 5th starter on an actually good team (a good team would not have Odorizzi as their third playoff starter), and Pineda is a complete question mark. How does that constitute a solid top four? If Gibson or Berrios go down with injury or underperform compared to their 2018 numbers, this is arguably one of the worst rotations in the majors.

 

In 2018, by ERA our starters were ranked 22nd with 4.54. By WHIP they were 22d with 1.39. 27th for K/BB. This is all with solid seasons by Gibson and Berrios. So even if our starters completely replicate the 2018 numbers, this rotation still is not solid, unless you're expecting improvements for Berrios, Gibson, and Odorizzi and you're expecting Pineda to come out of spring training in full swing and as a strong 4th man. And that is a lot of IFs to be counting on to even be a league average rotation.

[Guest]

 

If you are optimistic, you add good players to the roster. You don't stand pat. If you stand pat, and don't  add some really good players, it won't matter how good Buxton and Sano are, because there won't be enough other great players on the roster. This middle path is the worst path. IMO

This is on the nose.

 

The "strategy" that the FO is telegraphing at this moment is essentially telling the roster that they have no faith in them - that there's no good reason to invest in real talent to supplement them - that it's a better "strategy" to just let ownership pocket an extra $40 million.

[Guest]

 

I think the anger I have over this is that free agency is usually not that worth wile. You might occasionally hit with a guy like Santana in 2017 or Hughes' first season with us but usually we're just moving pieces around while still relying on the home grown product to present the bulk of the work. That's how it's almost always been for the Twins and it looks like that is how it'll remain. 

 

But this year is the one year that the Twins actually had enormous payroll flexibility and a great number of potential difference makers were on the market. That doesn't really happen every year. Last year the biggest position player contract went to Eric Hosmer. And the Twins seem set to not use this perfect storm of opportunity in a way that will help the team not only next year but also in 2020 and beyond. 

But just think of how impressed we're all going to be when the FO increases this year's $85 million payroll by 10%!

[caninatl04]

My patience with the new FO is getting pretty thin. They took over a team with a ton of young stars on it, a great park and tons of payroll room. They haven't done anything to help the on-field product at all. For the playoff drive, they sold off players for a pretty thin return. They kept Molly as manager when it was clear he should've been let go. Now we're seeing them punt on another season unless the players force their hand.  

 

Part of this could be the fact that ownership is horrible as well. But at the end of the day, this team could have added Machado had they wanted to (they have the money) and he would've been a big part of 2019 and 2022. The FO has refused to add talent and has instead shuffled around for marginal pieces.

I respectfully disagree with, well, everything. First, I remain a fan of the front office. They have done a lot to rebuild the minors. And last year many on this site were enthused by their free agent signings.

 

I'm confused about the thin returns during a playoff run. Are you talking about 2017 when their trades seemed to light a fire and the Twins made it to a wild card game. Or 2018, when they were well out of it, and received (in my opinion) some really nice pieces.

 

As for Molitor, do you think Flavine had a choice?

 

Finally, just as the most popular sports figure in any city is the backup quarterback, almost universally the least popular is the owner.

[Major League Ready]

 

I realize that, here in this regime's second full off-season, that it is common logic to think of last year's record and the current 40-man roster as evidence that the FO has no strategy. Things are a lot more complicated than that. A deeper and more complete assessment tells us much more.

 

I believe Falvey knows this is an asset management game. Acquire, develop, produce, and transition players as assets. 

 

His first evaluation, rightfully, was about talent evaluation and the whole acquisition process. I personally believe he was largely impressed with many of the scouting personnel, but felt they were not supported properly. Much of the first year's efforts went to investments in behind-the scenes "infrastructure" in observation technologies, information systems. changes in methodology, and analytical support to bolster those among the scouting ranks that were receptive and meritorious. The organization has supported this and has committed to massive increases in the annual budget related to talent evaluation and acquisition alone. These substantial and important strategic advances have yet to impact the 25-man roster. However, you're getting perhaps your first glimpses of it on the 40-man. Law calls the talent pipeline "loaded", Sickles ranks it as a top 5 system now. It's a consensus top 10 system.

 

His attention has clearly been turned to development. He's said this. He's already made huge technology investments, completely revamped everything in the fitness, nutrition, training, and medical area, canned tons of field people who don't qualify under his upgraded and updated standards, brought in new, innovative people and concepts all the way through the ranks, including at Target Field....the list goes on. These have been bold and aggressive initiatives. From the inside looking out, the baseball operation of this organization looks and feels different, because it is. Again, these incredible advances can't be seen when you look at the 40-man roster.

 

Personally, I expect to see signs of these changes subtly permeating the things we all care about starting in 2019, in bigger ways than implementing shifts. Opener/primary usage perhaps, maybe some anecdotes about performance breakthroughs for pitchers and hitters, that sort of thing. We'll see if better coaching results in some on-field production. It may still be too early to say we'll have players more ready to produce upon arrival, who knows?

 

I may be stupidly optimistic in the long term, and like the rest of my pals here, I've endured the frustrations. But when I see the things going on behind the scenes, I can't help but think we could start to see some fun things happening as early as late 2019 at the front of the store. BTW, I liked the horse-trading they did last trade deadline. Another good sign to me.

 

Asset management. Acquire talent, develop talent, get talent to produce, stay liquid and sell high from surplus to increase overall asset value top to bottom.

 

A "like" is not adequate for this post. The best measure of success would be if we minimized the need to sign expensive FAs or trade away top prospects. The improvements to core capabilities and practices described here are the key to sustained success. Well done! 

[S.]

 

A "like" is not adequate for this post. The best measure of success would be if we minimized the need to sign expensive FAs or trade away top prospects. The improvements to core capabilities and practices described here are the key to sustained success. Well done! 

While I'm glad they're improving their internal capabilities and all that, we're in like year 25 of trying to develop our players internally and not signing expensive FAs or trading top prospects. Why are we not allowed to sign good players, trade prospects for good players AND develop our own good players? If a team is just going to ignore 2 of the 3 ways to acquire good players, it shouldn't be a surprise that teams that take advantage of all 3 avenues will be significantly better.

[caninatl04]

I'm wondering what our reactions would be if we looked back on this thread in exactly two months. As one poster thrice reminded us, its December, not February.

 

I think late signing FAs is becoming the "new normal." And the new FO showed us last year that they want to be value investors.

 

But getting back to the original premise of this thread-- standing pat-- I hope that strategy does no preclude restocking the bullpen in a year of unnaturally large suupply

[JD Green]

While reading this, I started thinking back to last year that there seemed to be a lot of games the Twins scored enough runs by say the 5th or 6th inning to be in good position to win the game. Then looked back and added up all the blown saves. I was blown away. 26!!!!!! Uff-Dah! How many other games did we have a good lead and couldn't hold it, thru innings 5, 6, 7, or 8? Pitching. Pitching. Pitching. I do realize errors could play a part in this, but not that often. 

 

Pretty self explanatory where the need is at.

 

 

[whatyouknowtwinsfan]

As a fan, it's both frustrating and encouraging. Frustrating because like all of you, I want to see a World Series contender today. Encouraging because they want to create a long term winner. I want to see Lewis and Alex K. thrive here, not elsewhere after a trade. I think you can stay in the middle, cut payroll, and still contend. Nelson Cruz would take this team from inconsistent offense to consistently scary offense that has a big bopper in the middle. Next, improve the bullpen. Get a Familia and a 2nd/3rd tier reliever (such as Blevins or Allen, who I think is more 2nd tier due to injuries/struggles last year). I think you can sign all of those guys and maintain a 2011 $110-115 million payroll. A bullpen of Familia, Allen, May, Rogers, Moya, Magill, and Hildenberger (other guys mixed in too) may not be the best in the AL, but it's certainly an improvement. Yes, I didn't update the starting pitching in my moves, but that's an area I think you can sacrifice. If it's an evaluation period, why not have your 5th starter be one of the many kids we've drafted/developed? Our 1-4 is pretty much set with 4 average/above average starters. Is there an ace? No, but those 4 will give you a competitive chance 4 days out of 5. I think this is a reasonable way to keep this as an evaluation year, but also simultaneously go for it. 

 

The more critical thing for me is to spend, but not put yourself in a reckless spot. This team has no payroll commitments in 2020, but the amount of arbitration eligible players will still increase the payroll quickly. Part of the reason Target Field was necessary (in addition to it just being a better experience for fans) was to ensure that we keep these players we develop. If we're going to spend beyond my suggestions, it should be on team friendly contract extensions for the young talent (Berrios and Rosario in particular). Lock them in at good values to keep them here. By doing this, it showcases your interest in winning and should attract free agents in coming offseasons. I really believe that a winning club can take the Twins to a $130-150 million spending team. I think Falvine is willing to spend that much if they believe they've got a WS contender and contrary to local expectations, I think Pohlad would be willing to spend that as well, but it has to be on a for sure winner. That's why I think Falvine is making this a so-called evaluation year. If all goes wrong, you push the can down the road and wait for the kids. If all goes well, they can go into next offseason saying, "Graterol, Lewis, and Alex K. are one or two steps away, we've got stars in Buxton and Sano and can go into free agency and say to any pitcher or infielder, 'Look what we have to play around you. You can be the guy that brings us to the promised land.' Not only do I hope that's their idea, I honestly think it's their idea. There's certainly an opportunity for a revenue stream for it. Minnesota wants a winner. As it stands, the Twins are the only current team we have in men's sports to win a championship. The Twins were the first team in the American League to draw 3 million fans in a season. They drew 2.9 million in 2011 when they lost 99 games. I saw it at the end of 2015 and 2017 when they were in the WC hunt. 35,000 fans/game showed up for games the final weekend of the season. They can be the Cardinals. There's more money available here to change hands than in St. Louis. We're a bigger market, that's just fact. A year like this, as frustrating as it can be, could be the gateway to a new style of how the Twins conduct business. 

[bird]

 

While I'm glad they're improving their internal capabilities and all that, we're in like year 25 of trying to develop our players internally and not signing expensive FAs or trading top prospects. Why are we not allowed to sign good players, trade prospects for good players AND develop our own good players? If a team is just going to ignore 2 of the 3 ways to acquire good players, it shouldn't be a surprise that teams that take advantage of all 3 avenues will be significantly better.

 

 

I agree with this, and also understand your legitimate concerns (but not your pessimism) about a Berrios/Gibson/Odor/Pineda rotation. 

 

You can't look back 25 years. None of that has any meaning. The changes, while almost imperceptible to fans today, are going to be fairly impactful.

 

The old regime over-valued even more mundane prospects. By mundane, I'm talking prospects like Gonsalves, Rooker, Gordon types, guys with a future in MLB but not projected as perennial all-stars. 

 

I'm going to disagree that you can rightly accuse this FO as being opposed to spending bigger than they have in FA or to trading prospects to fill holes. We haven't exactly had a whole slew of expendable (surplus) premium prospects, for reasons unrelated to Derek Falvey and his FO. But yeah, he's going to be judicious as all heck, and rightfully so.

[diehardtwinsfan]

OOF... not what I wanted to read when I checked TD today. I don't think Nick and I will agree on the definition of standing pat. 

 

My jumbled thoughts. I think Buxton and Sano should rebound a bit... to what extent who knows. they are both young enough to have truly breakout seasons (add Kepler and Cave to that too), and if they do, I really hope their supporting cast is good enough, otherwise we are wasting their prime seasons. I don't think we want to be wishing they had done more if that happens. Now that said, i like both Schoop and Chron. Both were good pickups, and I believe CJ can be around for a bit longer. Both are fine given our farm depth in those areas. Both are not fine if that's it. Payroll or not, the division is ripe for the taking, and getting a shutdown reliever and potentially upgrading one of Odorizzi/Pineda to a better starter makes too much sense. That would be a trade though, I'm not sure I'd sign a FA starting pitcher... Bottom line though is that I'd expect them to put some winners around them, so that the team is complete enough to well... win. 

 

I'll hold out hope that they do more, but I don't like the tones I'm hearing from the FO. Granted, it's not their fault if payroll is cut. That's on Pohlad... but... I just don't like what I'm hearing. They are good enough that standing pat makes no sense. I'm not saying mortgage the farm, but they can make some smart FA moves and trades to put a team that should win this division. 

[S.]

 

You can't look back 25 years. None of that has any meaning. The changes, while almost imperceptible to fans today, are going to be fairly impactful.

Yeah, the 25 years wasn't meant as any sort of jab at the current team or current FO or coaching or any of that. Was more a statement on the idea of ignoring good FAs and not trading prospects. Obviously the game has changed a ton in 25 years but ignoring avenues of improving your team is just as much a problem now as it would've been 25 years ago. You're intentionally gimping yourself if you refuse to trade prospects and refuse to sign big contracts, because lots of other teams in the league are not putting those sort of restrictions on themselves AND are also developing their own good players. So to say you're going to compete with those teams only using 1 of the 3 ways to get top tier players, while those other teams employ all 3 ways is basically just praying for a miracle. 

 

Edit: And i think my pessimism over our rotation is reasonably well founded. We're going to need at least 7-8 starters for the year, probably a lot more. We were in the bottom third of every ranking for starting pitching in 2018 with Gibson and Berrios having career best years. Odorizzi didn't have an amazing season but he was adequate for what he is. Pineda is 100% a question mark. And after that on our pitching depth we have...nothing but more question marks. In order for this starting rotation to improve over 2018, Gibson and Berrios need to once again have career best years, Odorizzi needs to maintain or improve his level of play, and then we need 4-10 question mark pitchers to combine for average to above average numbers. While I certainly think this rotation could be league average, I'd say thats its likely ceiling, barring an unreal year from Berrios or a couple of those 4th and 5th slot question marks really surprising us. And if 1 or 2 of Berrios/Gibson/Odorizzi miss any significant time, what do we have? Basically a AAA pitching staff

Edited December 10, 2018 by S.

[frightwig]

 

I'm wondering what our reactions would be if we looked back on this thread in exactly two months. As one poster thrice reminded us, its December, not February.

I think late signing FAs is becoming the "new normal." And the new FO showed us last year that they want to be value investors.

But getting back to the original premise of this thread-- standing pat-- I hope that strategy does no preclude restocking the bullpen in a year of unnaturally large suupply

 

The way the roster is taking shape, and considering what they did last year, I expect that they'll sign a couple/few relievers, pick up a starting pitcher who is still looking for a job in February, and take Nelson Cruz (who has been great, but turns 39 on July 1) if nobody else will pay the man what he wants. Will that sort of thing move the needle?

[Mike Sixel]

 

True. He could also have a career year. I don't have a problem with them trading him now. I actually think Mike is right they don't have a legit shot but I don't see the need to totally sell out 2019 for a marginal increase in return on Gibson. I also don't think there are any FAs available at the positions we need to fill that would make even close to the type of difference necessary to give them a realistic shot. The only players that would elevate this roster to the point of a realistic shot are be trade candidates that would have an extremely high cost in terms of prospects (IE Realmuto). Even with Realmuto, Syndergaard, and a better 2B, they would still be long-shots to win a playoff series unless most of the other uncertainties pan out nicely. 

 

Let's keep in mind we have a 4-5 year window. Only Sano & Rosario are FAs in 2022. Everyone else is 2023. The teams that have been the most successful at rebuilding over the past decade are the teams that actually committed to a rebuild. The last regime refused to commit and we follow plans destined to top out at 85-88 wins instead of doing what is necessary to actually build a team capable of more than winning a weak division.

 

All fair, but that's why I want Gibson traded if they aren't trying. Actually do the rebuild. Tear off the band aid completely. 

 

And, imo, the reason those three don't finish the deal is that they didn't add any difference makers last year that carried over to this year. But then, I'm starting to repeat myself.....

[Einheri]

 

It doesn't point to competitiveness in 2020 either, since they will be relying on rookies like Gordon and whomever is replacing Cron, or more stop gaps.

If this is the plan, not trading Gibson is really stupid.

I would think the plan is to trade Gibson in July.
Unless… he's been sucking it up.
Or… the rest of the team hasn't been (and Kyle's been good), then they try to acquire some help to make a half-hearted run at the Division.  They won't want to pay Gibson any real money unless the team is ready to win in 2020, so expect a trade, probably.  Too many things have to go right for the Twins to compete in 2019.  Still… you never know.  

If enough of the core players do well early in 2019, and if the AL Central is up for grabs, then the Twins try to make something happen.

If too few of the core players are successful, then the Twins trade off who they can (good and bad players alike) to build up the "next" core (for 2021–2022).

[S.]

 

I would think the plan is to trade Gibson in July.
Unless… he's been sucking it up.
Or… the rest of the team hasn't been (and Kyle's been good), then they try to acquire some help.  They won't want to pay Gibson any real money unless the team is ready to win in 2020, so expect a trade.

If enough of the core players do well early in 2019, and if the AL Central is up for grabs, then the Twins try to make something happen.

If too few of the core players are successful, the Twins trade off who they can (good and bad players) to build up the "next" core.

Gibson will be 32 in 2020, and this board is full of people who say they wouldn't want Greinke because he is 34 and "on the downslope" of his career. We don't need to wait until the season to start to know the AL Central is up for grabs. Look at the other teams. This is likely the weakest the division will be for decades. Go get some good players now, don't wait until you're halfway competitive in July and trade for a reliever and a bench bat and think that is miraculously going to turn you into a legitimate playoff contender. And if they want to go out and acquire actual good players at the deadline? Its going to cost them a ****ing arm and a leg compared to what it would cost now. If you want a genuine high quality MLB caliber pitcher at the deadline, you're gonna be trading Lewis or one (or more) of our other top 5 or 10 prospects.

 

If too few of the core players are successful and we start to build up the "next" core, that is effectively punting for 4 or 5 more years, unless you think the next core is the second coming and that they're all going to be highly successful major league players in the next 2-3 seasons.

 

To me, this all seems like they are expecting to fail. If our players who underperformed in 2018 play well in 2019, our roster is still too weak to be a legitimate playoff contender. And the amount of prospects we would have to part with at the deadline to fill all of our needs to be a legitimate playoff contender would likely cripple our farm system for the next 5+ years. But if you go out now and get some other good players AND some of the players who underperformed in 2018 play well, all of a sudden you only need to make some smaller moves at the deadline to be a legitimate contender. It seems like the FO assumes they won't be a real contender, thus why even spend any real money.

[Major League Ready]

 

Gibson will be 32 in 2020, and this board is full of people who say they wouldn't want Greinke because he is 34 and "on the downslope" of his career. We don't need to wait until the season to start to know the AL Central is up for grabs. Look at the other teams. This is likely the weakest the division will be for decades. Go get some good players now, don't wait until you're halfway competitive in July and trade for a reliever and a bench bat and think that is miraculously going to turn you into a legitimate playoff contender. And if they want to go out and acquire actual good players at the deadline? Its going to cost them a ****ing arm and a leg compared to what it would cost now. If you want a genuine high quality MLB caliber pitcher at the deadline, you're gonna be trading Lewis or one (or more) of our other top 5 or 10 prospects.

 

If too few of the core players are successful and we start to build up the "next" core, that is effectively punting for 4 or 5 more years, unless you think the next core is the second coming and that they're all going to be highly successful major league players in the next 2-3 seasons.

 

To me, this all seems like they are expecting to fail. If our players who underperformed in 2018 play well in 2019, our roster is still too weak to be a legitimate playoff contender. And the amount of prospects we would have to part with at the deadline to fill all of our needs to be a legitimate playoff contender would likely cripple our farm system for the next 5+ years. But if you go out now and get some other good players AND some of the players who underperformed in 2018 play well, all of a sudden you only need to make some smaller moves at the deadline to be a legitimate contender. It seems like the FO assumes they won't be a real contender, thus why even spend any real money.

 

If they give Gibson a 3 year extension, he will be the same age Greinke is now at the conclusion at the contract. I hope they extend him but I would not object to trading him if they got a good return. 

[Old Twins Cap]

 

The Red Sox top 3 players produced 21 WAR in 2018.  The top 4 was 25 WAR.  Therefore, in order to be be competitive, the Twins will need 4 players with 5 WAR seasons or 5 players with 4 WAR seasons--plus pitching.  Our top 5 players (Rosario, Kepler, Escobar, Cave and Polanco) contributed 11 WAR last year.  The only way the Twins get to 20 WAR is if Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler and Polanco all have career years.  Is it possible, yes.  Likely, No.  

 

Yes, and how many times have people said, even before the analytics craze, that a team wins the World Series when more than a couple players on a team surpass their previous career best season?

 

Quite simply, that's what it takes to win it all.

 

And how that happens, when it happens, why it happens -- it's just magic.

 

Waiting for it is hard. For sure.

[TwinsFan50]

Maybe standing pat is the best call. 2018 season felt like a disappointment from the get go. But take a step back and look at the difference in record -- 7 games.

 

2017 85 - 77 Second place Central Div

2018 77 - 84 Second place Central Div

 

How many walk-off losses were there - ~7 games or so.

 

A few balls bouncing differently, or an additional hit here and there, and the boys could of been in the hunt with Cleveland.

Only to lose in the first-round AGAIN!

 

Sure Gardy and Co. won Division Titles, but where did that get us - nowhere. Remember 2006, we had the MVP, Cy Young Winner and the Batting Champ - ALL on the same team. Only to be swept in the First-round by the Mighty A's.

 

Remember that each year Hope Springs Eternal.

 

Here to better years ahead.

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Random, but not necessarily deep, thoughts on an overcast Dec. 10...

 

• Two signings by Dec. 10 doesn't feel like "standing pat."
• The front office M.O. doesn't seem to focus on making massive moves. Its needle-moving seems to come in the form of nudging.
• Maybe it's because I'm paying more attention, but it seems like this front office is much more active than in the past. The cumulative effect of many needle-nudging moves can be significant.
• They also don't make moves that box themselves into a corner. Cron and Schoop are one-year signings, but they are controllable. With a good year in either/both cases, they are back in 2020. With a bad year, we are glad they weren't two-year signings. It's also only Dec. 10. Sins of omission we can't measure, but it seems they've made very few, if any, sins of commission that they couldn't/didn't move on from relatively quickly. And Darvish would be at least one move that we could call a sin of omission in not pursuing more aggressively, but it seems like a good choice in retrospect.
• I think of the Royals of a few years ago. I don't follow them closely, but it seems like they had a number of highly regarded guys who came up and seemed like disappointments when they didn't turn the team around immediately. But by staying with them, they were able to finally supplement at the right time and had a couple of really fun years.
• It would be kind of fun to have a nice, shiny Machado at SS. But if the choice is Machado, Austin, and three relievers from Rochester for a combined $35-$40 million vs. Schoop, Cron, Austin, David Robertson, Joakim Soria, and Zach Britton for a similar amount, I'll take the latter. It's only Dec. 10, remember.
• This morning, the Twins were listed among nine teams interested in J.A. Happ. Jon Heyman just listed the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, AND... your Minnesota Twins. Given his age, I think he'd be an awesome overpay signing at two years, plus an option. Will it happen? Who knows, but it's just Dec. 10. I'd rather overpay on him for two years than for five years on this year's Darvish.

In other words, if March 28 brings me something like Castro & Garver; Cron & Austin; Schoop, Polanco, Sano, and Ehire; Rosario, Buxton, Garver and Cave; Berrios, Gibson, Happ*, Odo & Pineda (Romero/Mejia); May, Rogers, Reed, Robertson*, Soria*, Britton* (Romero/Mejia, rookies), I am very much on board. And I think it's still possible to get there. It's only Dec. 10, remember.

 

Then, it will be easy enough to make follow-up decisions in June or July on whether to go the rest of the way in with a minor league system that's still pretty loaded and a budget that isn't overworked. If most of the guys HAVEN'T come through, we'll be glad we didn't go all-in.

 

(*Placeholders -- insert your preferences, but these are some of mine.)

Schoop is not controllable beyond this season. He became a free agent once he went unclaimed. And, even if he hadn't, he'd still be a free agent after 2019 due to service time.

[S.]

 

If they give Gibson a 3 year extension, he will be the same age Greinke is now at the conclusion at the contract. I hope they extend him but I would not object to trading him if they got a good return. 

And if Gibson is pitching really well to start the season, do you think he's going to take a 3 year extension and not test out free agency or hold out for more than 3 years? I don't know the answer to that, but I feel like if he starts the season pitching as well as he did last year, there is 0 reason why he wouldn't want more years, since its likely to be the last big contract he gets

 

Edit: To be fair, I don't know if he would be successful in getting more years, based on how free agent signings have been the last few years, but I feel like a 3 year extension offer from the Twins probably isn't enough to stop him from at least looking at free agency. But I certainly can't speak for his thought process

Edited December 11, 2018 by S.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Schoop is not controllable beyond this season. He became a free agent once he went unclaimed. And, even if he hadn't, he'd still be a free agent after 2019 due to service time.

 

Thanks for that correction. I assumed that the 4.027 in baseball-reference.com was at the end of 2018, but in looking back, I see that it's from the beginning.

 

And does being non-tendered toss the service-time calculation out the window? Does that mean that Cron is also not controllable? 

 

Either way, I still think they are good signings. 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Thanks for that correction. I assumed that the 4.027 in baseball-reference.com was at the end of 2018, but in looking back, I see that it's from the beginning.

 

And does being non-tendered toss the service-time calculation out the window? Does that mean that Cron is also not controllable?

 

Either way, I still think they are good signings.

Non-tendering by itself doesn't affect free agency. Clearing waivers afterwards does. The Twins claimed Cron off waivers, so we control him just the same as TB would have had they tendered him.

Had Cron cleared waivers, as Schoop did, then he would have become a free agent.

[Major League Ready]

 

And if Gibson is pitching really well to start the season, do you think he's going to take a 3 year extension and not test out free agency or hold out for more than 3 years? I don't know the answer to that, but I feel like if he starts the season pitching as well as he did last year, there is 0 reason why he wouldn't want more years, since its likely to be the last big contract he gets

 

Edit: To be fair, I don't know if he would be successful in getting more years, based on how free agent signings have been the last few years, but I feel like a 3 year extension offer from the Twins probably isn't enough to stop him from at least looking at free agency. But I certainly can't speak for his thought process

 

So offer it now with a signing bonus given by all appearances payroll will be significantly lower this year. They have one other proven SP (Berrios) signed for next year.

[DocBauer]

Just to re-iterate, "standing pat" doesn't mean DO NOTHING. Personally, I thought Nick was clear on that. It means no major trades from the roster or the system. It means no big, long term contracts to several players. And please, correct me if I'm wrong Nick.

 

It means, somewhat unfortunately as we all just desperately want to know how these young guys are going to turn out, that you wait for 2019, or at least until mid-year, to formulate a true opinion on who you have and where you are going. I kind of chuckle when I read comments about the FO waiting for "their prosoects" to arrive. Does anyone truly believe the FO doesn't realize the potential in guys like Buxton, Sano, and others that they are just trying to skate by for another year or two until the next wave arrives?

 

Falvey's recent interview, which everyone should listen to, speaks about being in contact with Buxton and Sano and his/their belief in a core roster of talent to build around.

 

Despite some flippant comments from Pohlad concerning payroll, we really have no idea at this point what sort of mark is targeted. Cron and Schoop could be very nice signings. Argue all you want about either, but Cron has posted solid numbers and is coming off his best season ever, with his first 500AB season, and Rocco knows him. Schoop is coming off a bad and injured season, but had 2 good seasons and one great season before 2018. There is a better than average chance we could be clamoring for the Twins to extend and keep both next summer.

 

Berrios may or may not ever become a true #1 SP. Hard to predict that from a talented kid of 25. But he is damn good and only going to get better. Gibson is really just entering his prime when you consider his delay due to TJ surgery. He had a very bad year and a half, after a couple really nice first 2 seasons. He has made real adjustments and turned in to a legitimate #3 SP who pitches like a #2 sometimes. I'd have a 3yr extension on the table tomorrow for him. I'm not a huge fan of Odorizzi, but he's solid. Healthy, Pineda is probably better. His arm is solid. His late season knee injury appears minor, but did deprive him of some September starts to shake additional rust off. Like them or hate them, embrace a designated starter or not, there are some interesting arms to fill the 5-8 spots in the rotation...standing pat...and see what you have before you make a big move.

 

Right now, especially considering all the close games lost in 2018, the 2 biggest question marks are the young talent on hand, and being available daily to perform, and the bullpen. The FA market is so deep with RP arms that it's almost perplexing who we should be after. There is both need and opportunity. Even if payroll is reduced, there is room. Various media reports even have the Twins looking at pen options. And it's not like the Twins have a couple amazing milb RP options knocking at the door.

 

I expect a major/fairly major 2 or 3yr deal soon. Next will be a 1+1 or 2yr to follow with a 1yr possible or milb invite.

 

None of that blows up payroll. For 2019 or beyond.

 

Hopefully, another big bat is brought on board. I still prefer McCutchen or Brantley, though I hear rumors about Cruz, which could push Austin out.

 

But even with any of these additions, most of the roster is stranding pat.

 

If they are just smart with the pen, work with what we have, is it really such a bad plan?

[Champuckett]

When was the last time this organization made a high risk high reward trade?  2003?  1989?  We have had nothing for what feels like 15+ years now of low risk low reward trades and acquisitions.

 

Come on guys, where is the fire, the passion.. the demand for this?  Have things gotten so bad in Twins land, that we are really entertaining this as a "strategy"?