LEN3 Throws Cold Water on Hot Stove

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Hope so, for his sake and ours. If he makes the club, maybe I'll see if I can make a Pineda jersey by dusting off an old one in the back of my closet and altering the existing letters on the back of it...H-A-R-D-E-N.

You still need the P- and I - ... do you still have your Pelfrey and Correia jerseys?

[bird]

 

That's all well and good, but what are you willing to pay?  Other teams who consider him a GREAT FIT and are contenders will be very aggressive to get him.  I am not in the business of overpaying for former stars

 

 

Why would any team overpay for him or even think of him as a GREAT FIT if he's just another name like you said? 

[ND-Fan]

I hate to say it but I have been telling people on Twins Daily that the Twins were not going to spend as much as everyone was speculating. My reasoning for this they were going to wait and see what happens with Sano and Buxton and second I believe this Front office believes they are in long term tear down and rebuild. They will only be interested in signing their people they have signed to long term deals for this organization. I really believe that they think what ever previous front office did was mistake and they don't want that reminder around to look at. I believe if this core is to win its going to have to pretty much carry the day before they get any major help and I wouldn't be surprised then if they traded away from core to add future prospects for their core of players. This sounds bad but I have just gut feeling about this Front office and it has been they pretty much tell you what you want to hear but they think they are smarter than anybody else so they know what's right. 

The Twins ownership also sets the parameters on spending for the organization and you can see this by last front office and the current front office there is not much difference in how they spend money. If anything this front office is tighter on spending and uses players like chips between the major league club and the minors. Also they have offered only three contracts for more than one year in three years since coming to the Twins. The first was Castro  deal of 3 years and second was Rodney for two years and they traded that contract, and third was Reed for a two year contract. The funny thing about the Pohlads was back when they first acquired the Twins they were one of the clubs giving some largest contracts in baseball. Look back they gave contracts of size to Puckett, Hrbeck, Gagne, and numerous others to come play for the Twins. This is when the Twins won championships but since loss of Carl Pohlad's wife they have not pursued winning like they did back then. Just few observations I have made over the years. The thing I never understood is why they haven't put more priority on winning every time they have won look at the attendance for this club after 91 world series win they drew more than 3 million people until it fell to less than half of that total. Same thing here when they won in early two thousands attendance went up and now were falling back again only the numbers don't reflect people in the stands like it did in the past. 

The Twins I believe are not going to spend much more than 85 million this year and not what people were thinking they would at least spend 130 million.

[Platoon]

I tend to agree with ND in his post above, to a point. I don't think Falvine is completely sure of what they really have in Sano and Buxton, and for that matter Berrios and Kepler. That's not just on the FO, it's also on several of the players, primarily Sano and Buxton. Sano ate himself off the roster last year, and Buxton continues to be injured, sometime freakishly, but injured nonetheless. Add that after the toe injury someone, I am not sure who, seriously mishandled his recovery. I think Falvine is going to use this season for several things. First is to make a final determination on the feasibility of Buxton and Sano being the core of the team, that or move on from that hypothesis. Secondly, tread water until reinforcements arrive from AA and AAA. Third, let all the non player orginisational changes phase in. Pohlads protection of Molitor cannot be understated. Where I disagree with ND is on what JP will spend. With the certainty that Pohlad will never become an upper echelon bidder in the FA wars, I do think he would pay for a certain amount of "fill in the gaps" players. But I also believe Falvine knows that with Sano, and to an extent Kepler, a question mark his corner offense is questionable. And unless Castro and Buxton return and are productive his middle defense and offense are both the same. Bottom line. Unless what is there now becomes what almost everyone had projected it to be, there is no way, and no sense in buying pieces here and there. Neither the trade value or the cash is sufficient to fill that many holes. If, and it's still a possibility, this roster just plain tanks, there will be a Rebuild 2 coming to a ballpark near you, and soon.

[RatherBeGolfing]

Can you imagine signing CJ Cron and Jonathan Schoop and legitimately thinking you've done your heavy lifting for the offseason? Good god, this franchise refuses to even try 

[Doomtints]

What's it called again when someone keeps doing the same thing expecting a different result? I forget.

[Vanimal46]

What's it called again when someone keeps doing the same thing expecting a different result? I forget.

I think that's called being a Twins fan.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

What's it called again when someone keeps doing the same thing expecting a different result? I forget.

 

Being the Minnesota Twins I believe

[Mr. Brooks]

Is Schoop not a former star?

They didn't overpay for Schoop.

[Battle ur tail off]

Bottom line here. The Twins are cheap. They just are and will forever continue to be that way. We have one way of building a good team, and that is through our own system. So hold onto your hats, ladies and gents, it's gonna be a long ride. 

 

I really don't care if they don't buy anyone. I don't. But then, I don't see any need to bring in bargain guys on 1 years deals either. If you aren't going to go after anyone significant, then just use your own system to fill holes and stand firm with it. 

 

If that means Romero opens the season as your #2 or 3 starter, then so be it. Who throws hardest with the best stuff in your organization? Make him your closer. 

 

Second base doesn't need to be filled with a who-knows-if-they-will-ever-be-decent-again, type guy like they just signed. Just fill in with Gordon, or move Polanco over there and bring up one of the shortstops in your system.

 

Half in, half out. That always seems to be the Twins plan no matter who is running the show. It kind of gets old. 

[howeda7]

 

That rotation sounds like a disaster waiting to happen.

Exactly. We have no idea what will get from Pineda and I don't trust Odorizzi. You need 7 starters to get through a season and we have 4 maybe. They should 100% be signing at least one starter, a couple relievers and an OF'er (Adam Jones is my preference.) You could do all of the above, and still have a payroll $30 million less than 2018.

[ewen21]

 

Is Schoop not a former star?

Oh goodness gracious.  Schoop just turned 27 in October so he isn't a former anything.

 

 

To anyone pining for McCutchen, I have to ask...

What would it take to get him to play here?  We are not an attractive destination at the moment.  He spent years in Pittsburgh.  Does anyone honestly think he is going to come  here unless we knock his socks off with a long term deal?

 

[ewen21]

 

They didn't overpay for Schoop.

There's that too

 

Look.  I don't like it any more than anyone else, but this francise took a big step backward last year.  A BIG ONE.  Buxton, Sano and Kepler hurt us in a big way and by those three playing so poorly they almost put the Twins in a holding pattern for now.  It sucks.How

 

However, to see names like Grienke, Cano, Bumgarner and now McCutchen becoming objects of adornment I really have to scratch my head.  We have no reason to pursue players in decline.  NONE.

 

I feel this is more about people just wanting the Twins sign a name guy to feel like our front office actually tried.  Heck we could sign all four of them an probably STILL not win the Central!  2019 is once again all about the young players in our system who were supposed to lift us up out of the muck

 

I would much rather see these GMs try to trade off prospects or young players to being in young players who can give this frachise a kick in the pants.   None of those vets above would accomplish that

[cmoss84]

 

There's that too

 

Look.  I don't like it any more than anyone else, but this francise took a big step backward last year.  A BIG ONE.  Buxton, Sano and Kepler hurt us in a big way and by those three playing so poorly they almost put the Twins in a holding pattern for now.  It sucks.How

 

However, to see names like Grienke, Cano, Bumgarner and now McCutchen becoming objects of adornment I really have to scratch my head.  We have no reason to pursue players in decline.  NONE.

 

I feel this is more about people just wanting the Twins sign a name guy to feel like our front office actually tried.  Heck we could sign all four of them an probably STILL not win the Central!  2019 is once again all about the young players in our system who were supposed to lift us up out of the muck

 

I would much rather see these GMs try to trade off prospects or young players to being in young players who can give this frachise a kick in the pants.   None of those vets above would accomplish that

I am usually in agreement with this thought process.

 

Just not this year. The AL central is just so, so bad. Those players you mentioned might be declining, but they are still much better than what we have. I really don't think we have to improve a dramatic amount from last year to contend for the division title. 

 

I would rather trade for younger guys that will have a larger, longer impact...but at this point I'm fine either way (and would ultimately rather do BOTH). 

[S.]

 

However, to see names like Grienke, Cano, Bumgarner and now McCutchen becoming objects of adornment I really have to scratch my head.  We have no reason to pursue players in decline.  NONE.

If the guy in decline is still a significantly better option than anyone on your roster, why would you not want to pursue them? You wouldn't want to drastically improve your starting rotation with Greinke or Bumgarner instead of doing nothing and shuffling through 10 different AAA guys for 2 spots, who will likely combine for a 5+ ERA?

[Mr. Brooks]

If the guy in decline is still a significantly better option than anyone on your roster, why would you not want to pursue them? You wouldn't want to drastically improve your starting rotation with Greinke or Bumgarner instead of doing nothing and shuffling through 10 different AAA guys for 2 spots, who will likely combine for a 5+ ERA?

The problem is, when you get a guy in decline, you don't really know if he's better than what you have, because decline isn't always linear.

 

Take a guy like Felix Hernandez. Someone could have sold themselves on him being in decline, but still likely to be good, two years ago. Instead he fell off a cliff, and is a massive liability.

That's the risk with players 30+. You could get a year or two before that cliff, or not.

[S.]

 

The problem is, when you get a guy in decline, you don't really know if he's better than what you have, because decline isn't always linear.

Take a guy like Felix Hernandez. Someone could have sold themselves on him being in decline, but still likely to be good, two years ago. Instead he fell off a cliff, and is a massive liability.
That's the risk with players 30+. You could get a year or two before that cliff, or not.

How do we know Gibson will have a good year even though he's only had 2 good years out of 6? How do we know any of the guys in the minors will be serviceable MLB pitchers? How do we know if Pineda will be a decent pitcher coming off of his injury? There is always risk with any player, and it isn't linear with most of them. How many pitchers just steadily improve year after year, plateau, then steadily decline when they're 35+? I'm guessing not many pitchers have a smooth trajectory like that without having any off years or gems in the midst of bad years. For all we know, Gibson's 2018 was just a Scott Diamond year and he's going to turn back into 2016/2017 5ERA Gibson. 

 

However, someone like Greinke or Bumgarner has a large history of success. And even if they tacked on .5 ERA (or more) over their 2018 numbers, they would still be a valuable piece of our rotation. Of course, they could also blow out their arm in spring training and never pitch again or completely collapse. But so could Berrios. Or any other pitcher. Of course, an older guy is more likely to get hurt or decline, but on paper would you rather have a rotation of Greinke, Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda or Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda, and a bunch of AAA guys? Yes, there is a money angle to it too, but you can't just ignore players because they're 30+. Most top tier pitchers aren't even going to see free agency until they're close to 30

[ewen21]

 

If the guy in decline is still a significantly better option than anyone on your roster, why would you not want to pursue them? You wouldn't want to drastically improve your starting rotation with Greinke or Bumgarner instead of doing nothing and shuffling through 10 different AAA guys for 2 spots, who will likely combine for a 5+ ERA?

You got that magic dust that will convice the guys to come here in the first place?

 

And as Brooks explained, guy well over 30 can have their careers end in the snap of a finger.  Bumgarner was pedestrain these last two years.  Seems to me you are taking a pretty big leap when you say he'd be an upgrade given the way he has pitched last two years and Grienke is 35 for God's sake.

 

I don't give a damn about Grienke's history.  When you extend the timeline out just a little further on a guy who is 35 his time runs out.  Add to it the fact that he more than likely wants nothing to do with a team like the Twins and all we have is a lot of barking and complaining about nothing.

[Mr. Brooks]

How do we know Gibson will have a good year even though he's only had 2 good years out of 6? How do we know any of the guys in the minors will be serviceable MLB pitchers? How do we know if Pineda will be a decent pitcher coming off of his injury? There is always risk with any player, and it isn't linear with most of them. How many pitchers just steadily improve year after year, plateau, then steadily decline when they're 35+? I'm guessing not many pitchers have a smooth trajectory like that without having any off years or gems in the midst of bad years. For all we know, Gibson's 2018 was just a Scott Diamond year and he's going to turn back into 2016/2017 5ERA Gibson.

 

However, someone like Greinke or Bumgarner has a large history of success. And even if they tacked on .5 ERA (or more) over their 2018 numbers, they would still be a valuable piece of our rotation. Of course, they could also blow out their arm in spring training and never pitch again or completely collapse. But so could Berrios. Or any other pitcher. Of course, an older guy is more likely to get hurt or decline, but on paper would you rather have a rotation of Greinke, Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda or Berrios, Gibson, Odorizzi, Pineda, and a bunch of AAA guys? Yes, there is a money angle to it too, but you can't just ignore players because they're 30+. Most top tier pitchers aren't even going to see free agency until they're close to 30

The guys you mentioned cost not just money, but money and significant prospects.

I don't think a low budget organization like the Twins can expend big money and big prospects on a player and get nothing in return, which is a significant risk with those guys.

One or the other ($ or prospects), maybe, but not both. Both would be a death sentence, IMO.

I'm not saying never do it, but they better be almost 100% sure that a guy has good years left if they do.

[Aerodeliria]

 

On the plus side, it sounds like Pineda is pretty healthy per Falvey.  That's quite a bit of significant good news.

 

I'm not here to grouse about Falvey's assessment, but Darvish was also 100% when he took the mound last year. We can never have enough pitching.

[S.]

 

The guys you mentioned cost not just money, but money and significant prospects.
I don't think a low budget organization like the Twins can expend big money and big prospects on a player and get nothing in return, which is a significant risk with those guys.
One or the other ($ or prospects), maybe, but not both. Both would be a death sentence, IMO.
I'm not saying never do it, but they better be almost 100% sure that a guy has good years left if they do.

Greinke isn't going to cost any sort of decent prospects at all. Arizona wants his contract off the books. No team is going to give them top end prospects and eat his entire contract. I'm guessing a team could get him by eating the contract and parting with one or two of their 10-30 type prospects. The actual hold up with him is his 15 team no-trade clause, and I'm doubting he'd waive it to come to the Twins, which likely makes all my Greinke discussions irrelevant anyways, if I'm being honest. You may be correct on Bumgarner but I can't say I've really read anything on what the Giants are looking for. I'd imagine he'd cost more/better prospects than Greinke for sure but to what extent I don't know.

[S.]

 

Bumgarner was pedestrain these last two years.  Seems to me you are taking a pretty big leap when you say he'd be an upgrade given the way he has pitched last two years and Grienke is 35 for God's sake.

Bumgarner: 

2017: 3.32 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.95 FIP, 128 ERA+, 3 WAR

2018: 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.99 FIP, 119 ERA+, 2.4 WAR

 

Berrios:

2017: 3.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.84 FIP, 118 ERA+, 1.8 WAR

2018: 3.84 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.90 FIP, 114 ERA+, 3.9 WAR

 

Gibson:

2017: 5.07 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 4.85 FIP, 87 ERA+, 0.3 WAR

2018: 3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 4.13 FIP, 121 ERA+, 3.8 WAR

 

Now, yes, he did pitch a lot less innings, but how are those numbers pedestrian? And prior to 2017, he had 6 seasons in a row over 200 innings. How would anything even close to those numbers not be a monumental upgrade over everyone in our rotation not named Berrios or Gibson, and possibly an upgrade over either of them? 

 

Also, Bumgarner is 2 years younger than Gibson, so the age argument doesn't really hold up with him

[Mr. Brooks]

Bumgarner:

2017: 3.32 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.95 FIP, 128 ERA+, 3 WAR

2018: 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.99 FIP, 119 ERA+, 2.4 WAR

 

Berrios:

2017: 3.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.84 FIP, 118 ERA+, 1.8 WAR

2018: 3.84 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.90 FIP, 114 ERA+, 3.9 WAR

 

Gibson:

2017: 5.07 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 4.85 FIP, 87 ERA+, 0.3 WAR

2018: 3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 4.13 FIP, 121 ERA+, 3.8 WAR

 

Now, yes, he did pitch a lot less innings, but how are those numbers pedestrian? And prior to 2017, he had 6 seasons in a row over 200 innings. How would anything even close to those numbers not be a monumental upgrade over everyone in our rotation not named Berrios or Gibson, and possibly an upgrade over either of them?

Moving to the AL from the NL is worth about a half run ERA on it's own, before factoring in continued regression.

If those WAR trends continue linearly, he's basically Odorizzi.

[S.]

 

Moving to the AL from the NL is worth about a half run ERA on it's own, before factoring in continued regression.
If those WAR trends continue linearly, he's basically Odorizzi.

He's 29 and was dealing with injuries for 2 years. Why are we just assuming he's going to keep regressing already? The 4 seasons prior to that he put up a combined 17.8 WAR.

 

What would you prefer we do? Stand pat with this rotation and trot out an army of different AAA guys to fill 2 spots for the whole season and put up a 5+ combined ERA?

[Mr. Brooks]

He's 29 and was dealing with injuries for 2 years. Why are we just assuming he's going to keep regressing already? The 4 seasons prior to that he put up a combined 17.8 WAR.

 

What would you prefer we do? Stand pat with this rotation and trot out an army of different AAA guys to fill 2 spots for the whole season and put up a 5+ combined ERA?

A couple of thoughts.

 

I don't think injuries are fluke or happenstance, or luck. Many do, that's fine, but I don't. I believe durability is a skill, just like speed, strength, reflexes, hand/eye, etc.

So, IMO, he's likely to continue dealing with injuries.

 

And I already said, I'd spend prospects OR money. I'd personally likely never spend both as long as I have the Twins budget.

I'd overpay for a FA that doesn't cost any prospects, like Darvish last year, or Kuechel this year.

Or, I'd trade for a cost controlled pitcher, like Cole or Gray last year.

[ewen21]

 

Bumgarner: 

2017: 3.32 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 3.95 FIP, 128 ERA+, 3 WAR

2018: 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.99 FIP, 119 ERA+, 2.4 WAR

 

Berrios:

2017: 3.89 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.84 FIP, 118 ERA+, 1.8 WAR

2018: 3.84 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.90 FIP, 114 ERA+, 3.9 WAR

 

Gibson:

2017: 5.07 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 4.85 FIP, 87 ERA+, 0.3 WAR

2018: 3.62 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 4.13 FIP, 121 ERA+, 3.8 WAR

 

Now, yes, he did pitch a lot less innings, but how are those numbers pedestrian? And prior to 2017, he had 6 seasons in a row over 200 innings. How would anything even close to those numbers not be a monumental upgrade over everyone in our rotation not named Berrios or Gibson, and possibly an upgrade over either of them? 

 

Also, Bumgarner is 2 years younger than Gibson, so the age argument doesn't really hold up with him

Bumgarner is looking to be on the Lincecum/Oswalt track.  Sorry, not interested

[S.]

 

I don't think injuries are fluke or happenstance, or luck. Many do, that's fine, but I don't. I believe durability is a skill, just like speed, strength, reflexes, hand/eye, etc.
So, IMO, he's likely to continue dealing with injuries.

In Bumgarners case, he took a line drive off his pitching hand last year in spring training and broke it. I'd call that pretty flukey or unlucky. It wasn't as a result of bad mechanics or his delivery or any of that. 2017 he hurt his shoulder in a dirt biking accident. Which is a really dumb thing for a pro to do, no doubt. Now, I certainly understand the argument that a guy who has been injured in recent years is a higher risk moving forward than someone who hasn't been injured, but this isn't a guy who has some Chris Sale delivery and blew out his arm or anything like that. I wouldn't consider either of those injuries to be the result of his durability. I will agree they could potentially impact his durability moving forward though.

[Mr. Brooks]

In Bumgarners case, he took a line drive off his pitching hand last year in spring training and broke it. I'd call that pretty flukey or unlucky. It wasn't as a result of bad mechanics or his delivery or any of that. 2017 he hurt his shoulder in a dirt biking accident. Which is a really dumb thing for a pro to do, no doubt. Now, I certainly understand the argument that a guy who has been injured in recent years is a higher risk moving forward than someone who hasn't been injured, but this isn't a guy who has some Chris Sale delivery and blew out his arm or anything like that. I wouldn't consider either of those injuries to be the result of his durability. I will agree they could potentially impact his durability moving forward though.

Could be fluky, could be that a player with more spatial awareness moves his hand out of the way of the line drive and it's like nothing ever happened.

We'll never know.

 

As for the other one, I know a few people who ride dirt bikes, and they are nursing one injury or another every time I see them, because they tend to be thrill seekers who are drawn to risky behavior.

That's fine, it's a free country and it's their body, but I don't consider it fluky, I consider it part of the lifestyle.

[USAFChief]

You got that magic dust that will convice the guys to come here in the first place?

 

We need magic dust to convince a guy to sign here? A guy you've described as merely a name at this point??

 

I assume you're calling for firing Falvey and Levine then? Since we have such a huge image problem, one they can't overcome?

[S.]

 

Could be fluky, could be that a player with more spatial awareness moves his hand out of the way of the line drive and it's like nothing ever happened.
We'll never know.

As for the other one, I know a few people who ride dirt bikes, and they are nursing one injury or another every time I see them, because they tend to be thrill seekers who are drawn to risky behavior.
That's fine, it's a free country and it's their body, but I don't consider it fluky, I consider it part of the lifestyle.

No argument from me that riding around on dirt bikes when you're a professional pitcher is a stupid move. I have a hard time faulting a guy too much for taking a comebacker to the hand though. Either way, depending on the price tag, I think Bumgarner could be a really nice addition to the rotation. Like I said though, I don't have the slightest clue what the Giants are expecting in return, but in theory I think he'd be an interesting trade target if the cost isn't too ridiculous