Article: Where Are We Now?

[nicksaviking]

 

 

If this is correct, which I hope it isn't, I wouldn't expect the Twins to do anything significant any time soon.

 

Disappointing.

 

Though I'm happy Wolfson got some intel for us.

[Vanimal46]

https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/1070038493504643072

 

If this is correct, which I hope it isn't, I wouldn't expect the Twins to do anything significant any time soon.

So they're continuing to explore the 1 year contract path. Even when Falvey and Levine admitted that signing players on 1 year deals hurt the team last year.

 

Wow.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

 

If this is correct, which I hope it isn't, I wouldn't expect the Twins to do anything significant any time soon.

 

It's just business as usual here in Twins territory. One year deals on mid level guys. Yippee. Just bring up guys from the farm if this is the approach. Unless those free agents are complimentary guys, then I guess whatever. 

[SF Twins Fan]

 

So they're continuing to explore the 1 year contract path. Even when Falvey and Levine admitted that signing players on 1 year deals hurt the team last year.

Wow.

 

The only way I'll be ok with this is if it's for a Nelson Cruz or a good bullpen piece. 

[snap4birds]

 

Twins have 21 B- prospects, most clubs do not have 10. This is what I am suggesting to use some of them to improve the major league product. There are many clubs tanking now, time to make some deals.
This does not mean the top prospects, just use some of the near major league talent to improve the Twins

Assuming you're referring to Sickels' rankings?  He has 21 Twins prospects as B- or higher (including B-/C+ and C+/B-).  So far, Sickels rated 7 orgs, and all 7 have more than 10 of these prospects.  MIN leads with 21, KC has 18, ATL 14, CIN 13, LA & BOS 12, SEA 11.  Sadly, I don't know if we'll get the other orgs as I'm not sure where Sickels will end up.  

But I think the depth of the Twins prospects might be overstated a little.  I don't think a few B- prospects will bring back much MLB talent.  IMHO, of course.

[gunnarthor]

 

 

If this is correct, which I hope it isn't, I wouldn't expect the Twins to do anything significant any time soon.

This isn't surprising, just depressing. It doesn't matter who the GM is, ownership isn't going to open up the payroll. We have literally $0 on the books for 2020 but 30m/yr for Machado isn't even possible to discuss. I'm really not surprised but, gah. I don't know if there will ever be a safer blue chip FA option than him. 

 

We'll go into the year with a payroll around 110-120 and we're going to have to see the young core play better. FA is going to be adding fringe parts but not difference makers. It is what it is. Payroll currently sits at about 71. We could add Cruz on something like 2/32m and still add some relief arms. Cruz would really help the team, both for his bat but also for his mentoring. I'd like him to talk to Sano about being an all around hitter.

[mikelink45]

To add to my concerns about Buxton and Sano.  I know we have been told to be patient and to wait, they are young, but I keep seeing young players coming in and setting the league on fire.  Here is an ESPN article about all the 25 and younger new stars:  http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25417893/young-players-officially-taken-major-league-baseball  We keep waiting and hoping, but we still have to be ready to be realistic.  Something went wrong and I wish I knew what it was.  But when I keep seeing everyone write we should be going after it in 2019 I think about what we have and this summary was really good, but also "Buxton struggled early and then broke his toe and was never really given a chance to recover properly. But when healthy and with his legs (and feet and toes) under him), he's the best outfielder in the game."  Which is not the case.  He has the potential to be the best in the game, but it has not happened except for very short stretches.  I want us fortified if Buxton and Sano are busts and if they are not - all the better. 

[gunnarthor]

 

To add to my concerns about Buxton and Sano.  I know we have been told to be patient and to wait, they are young, but I keep seeing young players coming in and setting the league on fire.  Here is an ESPN article about all the 25 and younger new stars:  http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/25417893/young-players-officially-taken-major-league-baseball  We keep waiting and hoping, but we still have to be ready to be realistic.  Something went wrong and I wish I knew what it was.  But when I keep seeing everyone write we should be going after it in 2019 I think about what we have and this summary was really good, but also "Buxton struggled early and then broke his toe and was never really given a chance to recover properly. But when healthy and with his legs (and feet and toes) under him), he's the best outfielder in the game."  Which is not the case.  He has the potential to be the best in the game, but it has not happened except for very short stretches.  I want us fortified if Buxton and Sano are busts and if they are not - all the better. 

Buxton was a 5 WAR player a year ago and Sano was an all-star. I'd put the blame a lot more on Molitor and his staff and assume that the new manager has a few ideas about this. There simply is too much talent in those two guys to assume they'll bust. 

[notoriousgod71]

This roster looks like a 65 win team right now. Adding three or four bargain basement FA makes this team a 68 win team.

 

Make some real moves to show you have some sort of interest in winning for a change.

[mikelink45]

 

This isn't surprising, just depressing. It doesn't matter who the GM is, ownership isn't going to open up the payroll. We have literally $0 on the books for 2020 but 30m/yr for Machado isn't even possible to discuss. I'm really not surprised but, gah. I don't know if there will ever be a safer blue chip FA option than him. 

 

We'll go into the year with a payroll around 110-120 and we're going to have to see the young core play better. FA is going to be adding fringe parts but not difference makers. It is what it is. Payroll currently sits at about 71. We could add Cruz on something like 2/32m and still add some relief arms. Cruz would really help the team, both for his bat but also for his mentoring. I'd like him to talk to Sano about being an all around hitter.

It is like blaming Molitor for the team frustration when the FO gave him the players.  We really do not know the ownership restrictions.

[gunnarthor]

 

It is like blaming Molitor for the team frustration when the FO gave him the players.  We really do not know the ownership restrictions.

We have 25+ years of Pohlad ownership. It doesn't matter who the GM is, this is going to be a bottom third payroll team. That's why they hired Falvey and Levine in the first place. 

[nicksaviking]

 

This roster looks like a 65 win team right now. Adding three or four bargain basement FA makes this team a 68 win team.

 

Make some real moves to show you have some sort of interest in winning for a change.

 

I disagree about this being a 65-win team, I think the energy from a new young manager is going to do a lot for this club. However, if you think this is a 65-win club there's probably not enough possible moves that could be made to make this team a real competitor. Does the team winning 75 games make the season any more enjoyable than winning 65?

 

Heck, 85 wins doesn't do much for me, I've long lost interest in watching this team act like a cute little underdog. Wake me up when we're talking 95 wins and the team actually is in the conversation for winning the title.

[old nurse]

The Twins asking for medicals and $ for 3-4 players looks like bullpen and MI fishing. They could be looking at players in need of a rebound year to increase their value. Any of the non tendered players also might fit this description.

 

[Vanimal46]

This roster looks like a 65 win team right now. Adding three or four bargain basement FA makes this team a 68 win team.

 

Make some real moves to show you have some sort of interest in winning for a change.

They won 78 games with Buxton and Sano essentially missing the whole season. Not to mention terrible contributions from Dozier, Morrison, etc.

 

You're really underestimating how bad Kansas City, and Detroit are going to be. Possibly Chicago too.

[ashbury]

The real question is how much Tom and Steve paid Seth to put all those Astrudillo comments in there.

 

Disappointing.

 

Though I'm happy Wolfson got some intel for us.

Willians Astudillo can provide some intel depth as well.

[spsdrock]

Sign DJ LeMahieu to a 4 year 50mil  (too low?)

Sign Keuchel to a 4 year 100mil

Trade Gordon, Gonsalves, Cave, Mejia, littell is this enough? for Kluber.

Sign 2-3 Bullpen arms.  There are plenty of good ones.

 

I would like to sign Moose to rotate at 3B/DH with Sano.  Cron, Austin and Sano can also rotate in 1b and DH with who ever is hot at the time.  But i am ok with the current three.  But i would make signing DJ my priority.  

 

Mad Bum has shoulder issues now and would be a big GIANT NO for me. 

Grienke Is just to old and not worth the time or the money.  

 

[USAFChief]

 

If this is correct, which I hope it isn't, I wouldn't expect the Twins to do anything significant any time soon.

Blechhhhhhhh

[Mr. Brooks]

Sign DJ LeMahieu to a 4 year 50mil (too low?)

Sign Keuchel to a 4 year 100mil

Trade Gordon, Gonsalves, Cave, Mejia, littell is this enough? for Kluber.

Sign 2-3 Bullpen arms. There are plenty of good ones.

 

I would like to sign Moose to rotate at 3B/DH with Sano. Cron, Austin and Sano can also rotate in 1b and DH with who ever is hot at the time. But i am ok with the current three. But i would make signing DJ my priority.

 

Mad Bum has shoulder issues now and would be a big GIANT NO for me.

Grienke Is just to old and not worth the time or the money.

If they give $50 million to DJ, I'm out.

 

And no, that's not even a realistic offer for Kluber, not close.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Sign DJ LeMahieu to a 4 year 50mil  (too low?)

Sign Keuchel to a 4 year 100mil

Trade Gordon, Gonsalves, Cave, Mejia, littell is this enough? for Kluber.

Sign 2-3 Bullpen arms.  There are plenty of good ones.

 

I would like to sign Moose to rotate at 3B/DH with Sano.  Cron, Austin and Sano can also rotate in 1b and DH with who ever is hot at the time.  But i am ok with the current three.  But i would make signing DJ my priority.  

 

Mad Bum has shoulder issues now and would be a big GIANT NO for me. 

Grienke Is just to old and not worth the time or the money.  

 

 

There is no way Cleveland will trade within the division especially when they're still looking like the best team. Also, I don't believe MadBum has shoulder issues.... he fell off a dirt bike two years ago but he didn't have any issues with it last year. He was hit by a line drive that fractured a bone in his hand last year.

[Mr. Brooks]

Are we really going to start criticizing the FO for things that Doogie is "reporting"? I think we'll get more accurate results posting what a magic 8 ball says.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Get the best fielding SS for the short term ...Iglesias. No more than a 2 year deal. Move Romero and Stewart to BP, just for 1 year. Let Mejia start now...we need a left handed starter.  Bring up Jake Reed. I want to see what Jake can do. Keep Vasquez in the pen, along with Rogers, May, Hildy and A. Reed. Sounds like a plan.

[bird]

 

Assuming you're referring to Sickels' rankings?  He has 21 Twins prospects as B- or higher (including B-/C+ and C+/B-).  So far, Sickels rated 7 orgs, and all 7 have more than 10 of these prospects.  MIN leads with 21, KC has 18, ATL 14, CIN 13, LA & BOS 12, SEA 11.  Sadly, I don't know if we'll get the other orgs as I'm not sure where Sickels will end up.  

But I think the depth of the Twins prospects might be overstated a little.  I don't think a few B- prospects will bring back much MLB talent.  IMHO, of course.

 

 

Going from recollection, I'd say these numbers are fairly representative. Usually 2-3 teams with around 20 B- or better prospects, another tier of teams with about 15, most of the rest at about 10, with a couple of dogs down at 5ish. The A- prospects are important though, with maybe a dozen total.

 

Talent pipelines are going to be more variant, just like MLB talent these days. Some big tim "haves" and some woeful "have-nots" Watch out for the orgs with top quartile talent in both MLB and the minors.

 

I don't think the Twin's system's depth is overstated however, for two main reasons. First, compared to other systems, a lot of those prospects are really young and/or new, and there are a handful more high ceiling prospects at the lowest levels than you see in many systems too. I thought the system might have been over-rated in terms of quality last year, but after last year's domestic and international signings, I think it merits its ranking as a top 10 pipeline because of both quality and quantity or depth.

 

These assessments are incredibly fluid. All it takes is two of the likes of Javier, Urbina, Graterol, and Larnach to take off like Lewis and Kirilloff did to catapult an organization in these kind of rankings. KC, for example, probably had fewer than ten B- prospects the prior year, and now look.

[ChrisKnutson]

This isn't surprising, just depressing. It doesn't matter who the GM is, ownership isn't going to open up the payroll. We have literally $0 on the books for 2020 but 30m/yr for Machado isn't even possible to discuss. I'm really not surprised but, gah. I don't know if there will ever be a safer blue chip FA option than him.

 

We'll go into the year with a payroll around 110-120 and we're going to have to see the young core play better. FA is going to be adding fringe parts but not difference makers. It is what it is. Payroll currently sits at about 71. We could add Cruz on something like 2/32m and still add some relief arms. Cruz would really help the team, both for his bat but also for his mentoring. I'd like him to talk to Sano about being an all around hitter.

Simply put, if Wolfson’s report is correct, then signing both Cruz and Lowrie to 1-2 year deals must become our top priority(s). Now that’s not to say the bullpen isn’t area of need, it’s just that the match is too perfect for the Twins not to take advantage of, especially when the division is as weak as it is right now.

[mikelink45]

 

Buxton was a 5 WAR player a year ago and Sano was an all-star. I'd put the blame a lot more on Molitor and his staff and assume that the new manager has a few ideas about this. There simply is too much talent in those two guys to assume they'll bust. 

If I ever needed a reason to question WAR - you just gave it to me.  Byron has a career 230/285/387.  His WAR for 4 years was 6.9.  Since I think defensive WAR is as questionable as other defensive stats I have to look at this with some skepticism.  I know he is really great in CF, but so was Billy Hamilton.  I want Buxton to be a star, but so far he is not. 

[mikelink45]

 

We have 25+ years of Pohlad ownership. It doesn't matter who the GM is, this is going to be a bottom third payroll team. That's why they hired Falvey and Levine in the first place. 

If Falvey and Levine did not know this they are not as smart as everyone says.  They saw this and still thought they could succeed.  

[rv78]

I'm intrigued by Johnathon Schoop. I think he could be a steal coming off a bad season and he'd fill the vacated hole at 2nd base at least for a year. He'd be a better risk right now than bringing back a Dozier or a weak hitting Forsythe. Maybe a return to the AL would fix his bat? Going after a LeMahieu or Lowrie would be a second option since Gordon is definitely not ready. If Schoop returns to his former self trade him at the deadline if you aren't in the race and then move Polonco to 2B and bring up Lewis to play SS.

As for the starters I'd be ok with giving the cast of youngsters to continue their auditions for the first month or two unless the intention is to contend for the division in 2019. If the choice is to go for it then start trading some in a package deal with a Kepler or Austin and bring in a front line starter.

I'd really like to see a hard push for acquiring Michael Brantley or McCutchen to play RF. With either of them and Rosario towards the top of the lineup along with Polonco you'd have 3 guys to set the table. I'd look to trade Kepler or use him as a backup to Buxton if he fizzles again. Signing Cron has hurt his value to play some 1B if needed. I'd rather see them use Cave as the 4th OFer than Kepler. Kepler probably has better trade value right now than Cave. 

As for the 5 guys you mention in the bullpen, Moya, Vasquez, Magill and so on... they are expendable. None are difference makers and I've definitely seen enough of Duffey forever. I'd rather see a Romero, Gonsalves, Littell or 1 of the other crop of young starters given the chance to pitch out of the pen.

[Mike Sixel]

If it is a series of 1 year deals again, I can't wait for Portland to get a team.

[notoriousgod71]

 

I disagree about this being a 65-win team, I think the energy from a new young manager is going to do a lot for this club. However, if you think this is a 65-win club there's probably not enough possible moves that could be made to make this team a real competitor. Does the team winning 75 games make the season any more enjoyable than winning 65?

 

Heck, 85 wins doesn't do much for me, I've long lost interest in watching this team act like a cute little underdog. Wake me up when we're talking 95 wins and the team actually is in the conversation for winning the title.

 

 

Agreed, but you have to take incremental steps to improve your team. Sign a couple real players each off-season and suddenly you're a good team. Signing no one year after year and hoping for every single internal candidate to take five steps forward is a recipe for disaster.

[darin617]

 

I think Machado makes so much sense for this team and the position it is in right now.  Aside from the cost, it seems to be an almost no-brainer.  As you mentioned it fills a need this year and essentially stabilizes the infield for the foreseeable future.  

 

Imagine in 2020 an infield of:

 

2nd base: Polanco

3rd base: Machado

SS: Lewis

1st base: Sano

 

They have the money to do it and add pitching.

 

Do it Twins!

 

So you want to sign Machado? Ready for that 10 year commitment to a guy who doesn't hustle or seem to care? Not a smart signing with all his baggage and no veteran presence on the roster to keep him in check. Also, you want your young upcoming talent to look up and see Machado not caring or putting 100% into his game. NO.

[Thrylos]

The Twins cannot afford to start the season with this rotation and pen and pretend that they are competing...

 

To be competitive they need two starters better than Berrios/Gibson and I do not count Pineda to be one, and also a couple of late inning relievers.

 

They have excess pitching and I would have no problem trading anyone of them other than Romero and Graterol at this point.   Gordon quickly will fall behind Arraez in IF depth and with Lewis up and coming, the Twins better trade him while he has value.

 

I'd like them to sign a veteran second baseman to an one-year contact, preferably Murphy or Kinzler, until Arraez is ready.   I think that's about it as far as the position players go, but I also believe that Sano and Buxton will have good seasons and will finally be healthy.