Article: Where Can the Twins Find Some OBP for Their Lineup?

[MABB1959]

So far not much. This is a hard time of year for me watching all the wheeling and dealing for the top players and we have to wait to see what is left over. Probably more this year because they have enough money to at least be in the game.

[TheLeviathan]

 

So far not much. This is a hard time of year for me watching all the wheeling and dealing for the top players and we have to wait to see what is left over. Probably more this year because they have enough money to at least be in’s the game.

 

In fairness, the whole league has been really, really slow.

 

Doesn't excuse inaction by the Twins, but it's hardly isolated at this point.

[gunnarthor]

Last year was incredibly slow, too.

[Winston Smith]

 

That's a fair stance, but Buxton has 4 years left, and Segura 3. Which one is more likely to be good during that time?

Segura has 4 years left and a 5th year option.

[DocBauer]

In fairness, the whole league has been really, really slow.

 

Doesn't excuse inaction by the Twins, but it's hardly isolated at this point.

 

Yep.

 

We are all frustrated because we want to know NOW what's going to happen, and there just isn't anything really relevant that's happened at this point other than Grossman gone and the Cron signing.

 

I tell you what does excite me...POSSIBILITIES. Between FA available for the infield and bullpen, and now additional options that appear at least interesting, especially in a slow moving market, I am more encouraged about ootions/additions for both areas to be addressed. I still feel the Twins will make one major pen signing. But I think it is becoming more and more likely they will also look at a second pair of signings on 1 or 1+1 deals to create additional depth and competition. All the numbers are in their favor.

 

There are also legitimate options for the infield. No rumors, of course, but I really hope they identify the right guy for team need and make their move and get it done! Still torn, IMO, who that guy is, but were it up to me, I'd sure be looking at Gonzalez and Lowrie for both the same and different reasons. Lowrie would probably provide more OB potential, as per the original post, but I'm really torn.

 

Maybe I'm whistling in the wind, or doing something else, but I'd sure love to see them bite the bullet, keep the payroll about the same, and bring in McCutchen, or possibly Brantley, and continue to build strength.

 

Side note: Concerning the OB issue, I think we've seen enough from Kepler and Polanco to believe that a full season from both, without suddenly, necessarily turning in to All Star caliber players, that either or both could raise the team OB.

[Danchat]

 

The missing strategy seems to be "signed good help."

Fair enough, but my problem is that teams overpay guys who "should" be good help. Lance Lynn and Yu Darvish looked like solid bets and they weren't. This year, Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi look like good bets, and the Twins would be lauded if they gave Corbin $120M, but I doubt either of the two will live up to their contracts. I don't want move that will satisfy the crowd, I want deals that will actually improve the team. Even if it means making unpopular moves like picking up Anibal Sanchez.

[ChrisKnutson]

I know Cutch, Brantley, and Markakis are more preferable options, but don’t count out a Denard Span reunion (.341 OBP in 2018). Not a flashy move, but a quality addition nonetheless. However, in order to make any kind of move like this possible, Kepler will likely have to play some 1B and Rosario will need to split time between LF and DH (perhaps 2B too).

[DocBauer]

Fair enough, but my problem is that teams overpay guys who "should" be good help. Lance Lynn and Yu Darvish looked like solid bets and they weren't. This year, Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi look like good bets, and the Twins would be lauded if they gave Corbin $120M, but I doubt either of the two will live up to their contracts. I don't want move that will satisfy the crowd, I want deals that will actually improve the team. Even if it means making unpopular moves like picking up Anibal Sanchez.

I don't think Sanchez Is the right move, but I see your point.

 

This the "weirdest" off season I have ever seen. You appear to have a pair of record breaking contract players available. And it would appear you have a second level of guys looking at potentially big contracts. Most notably Evoldi and Corbin. And while each offers tantalizing opportunity, what are you banking on?

Potential in their late 20's after solid but not great careers thus far? HIGH upside but bad downside.

 

The FA list is very long for where the Twins need it most, infield and bullpen. And if they are smart, and maybe a bit lucky, as they were last year, they can pounce on a couple of guys, and then sign a couple guys to really friendly deals. Depth and opportunity seems to indicate this may happen.

[TNTwinsFan]

Would anyone really have a problem with a guy who goes .745 OPS(splitting the difference between his Home vs. Away splits in his 2018 campaign) and plays Gold Glove defense at 2B??? It's not flashy but it gets the job done at 2B...sign Lemahieu and move on to the Bull Pen already.

[MABB1959]

In fairness, the whole league has been really, really slow.

 

Doesn't excuse inaction by the Twins, but it's hardly isolated at this point.

[MABB1959]

I know not much has officially happened but tons of predictions and talk and nothing the Twins are involved in.

[operation mindcrime]

I'm sure we'll find it in a dumpster somewhere!

[Mr. Brooks]

Would anyone really have a problem with a guy who goes .745 OPS(splitting the difference between his Home vs. Away splits in his 2018 campaign) and plays Gold Glove defense at 2B??? It's not flashy but it gets the job done at 2B...sign Lemahieu and move on to the Bull Pen already.

Why are you splitting the difference?

.673 career OPS away from Coors Field, .698 last year.

[TNTwinsFan]

Why are you splitting the difference?

.673 career OPS away from Coors Field, .698 last year.

Ok. Fine. I'm assuming for an uptick due to some potential adjustment and positive standard deviation. Let's say he OPSs .725? I think the Twins can live with that and his much needed Gold Glove on the right side of the infield. Although he doesn't have a high OPS away from Coors Field, he did hit 11 of his 15 home runs away from Coors Field last year. He had a much lower BA and walk rate away from Coors Field and that's why I believe he could make an appropriate adjustment.

[bird]

 

78 wins in 2019?  Wooooohooo.   

 

 

Only if they follow your suggestion and start the season with Rooker and Gordon in the lineup.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Segura has 4 years left and a 5th year option.

 

Then I'd do it. Can someone convince why not?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Fair enough, but my problem is that teams overpay guys who "should" be good help. Lance Lynn and Yu Darvish looked like solid bets and they weren't. This year, Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi look like good bets, and the Twins would be lauded if they gave Corbin $120M, but I doubt either of the two will live up to their contracts. I don't want move that will satisfy the crowd, I want deals that will actually improve the team. Even if it means making unpopular moves like picking up Anibal Sanchez.

 

We've decided after one injury year that Darvish was a bad signing? Buxton was bad last year, is it bad to keep him around?

 

Anibal Sanchez was not going to carry this team anywhere. 

[rdehring]

Everyone is wondering where the Twins OBP will come from in 2019.  Take a look at what Astudillo is doing down in Venezuela this winter.  In 160 at bats, he has a .391 OBP.  OK, his batting average is .356, but he continues to get on base more than anyone would expect.

 

He also is learning how to take walks, with 7 so far this winter.  And that's compared to one strikeout, yes, 1.  Almost hard to believe!

[ChrisKnutson]

I understand dumping Grossman was a necessary evil, but replacing him (and Mauer) with Cron (.323 OBP in 2018) just doesn’t make any sense other than the fact that he hit 30 HRs last season, which may not happen again.

 

It may be too late, but perhaps the FO can pivot and still swing a deal for, on-base machine, C. Santana (.352 OBP in 2018), because I gotta believe Dipoto is now itching to get rid of that Santana contract now (which could work in our favor).

[Winston Smith]

Not all OBP is equal.

Number of extra base hits and the players speed all impact how often the player scores. Grossman had an OBP of .371 with the Twins while Kepler had .313 yet both players scored at the same rate per pa's.

So look a little closer at the OBP number they are not all created equal. Remember OBP rates a walk and a homerun the same.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Ok. Fine. I'm assuming for an uptick due to some potential adjustment and positive standard deviation. Let's say he OPSs .725? I think the Twins can live with that and his much needed Gold Glove on the right side of the infield. Although he doesn't have a high OPS away from Coors Field, he did hit 11 of his 15 home runs away from Coors Field last year. He had a much lower BA and walk rate away from Coors Field and that's why I believe he could make an appropriate adjustment.

 

Do you know why hitters tend to have a much higher BA in Coors?

 

His sample size away from Coors is robust.  You ain't getting .725.

[gunnarthor]

 

Not all OBP is equal.

Number of extra base hits and the players speed all impact how often the player scores. Grossman had an OBP of .371 with the Twins while Kepler had .313 yet both players scored at the same rate per pa's.

So look a little closer at the OBP number they are not all created equal. Remember OBP rates a walk and a homerun the same.

wOBA tries to fix those differences. 

[mlhouse]

 

This is a weirdly defeatist attitude. The AL Central is going to be eminently there for the taking next year, and the Twins should be right in the thick if Buxton & Sano rebound. I'm not sure I understand tanking while staking your future on unspectacular prospects like Rooker and Gordon. Sounds like a recipe for remaining in the perpetual cycle of rebuilding.

 

There are moves on this list that align with a long-term thinking. Bour and LeMahieu are 30. McCutchen would be helpful on a 3-year deal, creating veteran entrenchment. If these kinds of players are holding prospects back any time soon, it's a good problem to have.  

 

Who cares about the AL Central?   Winning the AL Central means we lose to the Yankees for the umteenth millionth time 0-3.

 

2nd, you are missing the point.  YOu build around Lewis, Kirilloff, Rooker, Gordon, and the remianing young players that are now on the roster.  You give these guys experience and hopefully Buxton and Sano, and Kepler, rebound.  If they do, you don't have a complete disaster of a season and the young guys should be playing much better by the end of 2019.  

 

If some of the guys falter, you bring up their replacements quickly.  Then with a more experienced team you start looking at filling in the gaps with free agent/trade acquisitions with the financial flexibility you have then because you didn't blow it chasing meaningless, non-competitive wins NOW.  

 

THis is rebuilding 101 for a team like the Twins (other teams with huge budgets might have different paths).

 

 

[yarnivek1972]

Ok. Fine. I'm assuming for an uptick due to some potential adjustment and positive standard deviation. Let's say he OPSs .725? I think the Twins can live with that and his much needed Gold Glove on the right side of the infield. Although he doesn't have a high OPS away from Coors Field, he did hit 11 of his 15 home runs away from Coors Field last year. He had a much lower BA and walk rate away from Coors Field and that's why I believe he could make an appropriate adjustment.

Might as well resign Dozier if your bar is THAT low.

[mlhouse]

 

Because losing sucks!

 

Again,  YOU WILL LOSE WITH THESE GUYS ANYWAYS.  I don't understand why certain Twins fans and the two front office administrations do not understand this.  

 

Bringing in mediocre at best free agents and your prospects up essentially piece meal will mean you will go through an extended "rebuilding" period of losing, losing, losing.  This is not hindsight.  I have been saying this since the start of 2012.  

 

I get losing sucks.  I get that being a "wild card" playoff team was like an opioid for long suffering Twins fans.  But plugging these guys in just gets you more mediocrity and I would argue that pursuing the wild card in 2017 hurt the long term prospects of the team much more than it helped.  Why?  The proof is in the roster.  If you look at our roster how many "established" players do we have?   

Rosario.  Berrios.  Gibson maybe (if you think the 2015 and 2018 Gibson is the real Gibson vs. the 2016 and 2017 Gibson).  Odorizzi if you accept what you see is what you get?   Is Kepler, who seems to have reached his capabilities good enough to be on this list?  How about Garver who certainly has not proven it to management.  Maybe CJ Cron who had a great year hitting 30 home runs on the year, only to be designated for assignment?

 

Personally, although I would listen to arguments for the players I mentioned, the Twins have two, count them, two players I say are established:  Rosario and Berrios. 

Everybody after that has significant issues because of either injuries, off field problems, or inconsistent play or combinations of all of them.

 

Here is the solution:  you bring up the lot of your prospects.  Lewis, Kirilloff, Rooker, Gordon, Wade, Arreaz.  You bring back Astudillo.  You hand the ball to Gonslves and Romero.  You start the season with Vasquez and several other guys in the pen.

 

YOu work those guys with the other players on the roster:  Cave, Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Garver, Polanco, Kepler, Austin and you see who can play and who cannot.

 

Sure, you might lose 100 games, but it is worth it if these prospects are the guys that are going to make this team competitive.  You play them through mistakes and losses, letting your young manager deal with the young guys.  By the end of the year you should see progress from the players that have futures and probably know who will not make it going forward.  

 

In 2020 you would see another step forward and then the FO can start thinking about who to bring in to "fill holes".

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Who cares about the AL Central?   Winning the AL Central means we lose to the Yankees for the umteenth millionth time 0-3.

 

2nd, you are missing the point.  YOu build around Lewis, Kirilloff, Rooker, Gordon, and the remianing young players that are now on the roster.  You give these guys experience and hopefully Buxton and Sano, and Kepler, rebound.  If they do, you don't have a complete disaster of a season and the young guys should be playing much better by the end of 2019.  

 

If some of the guys falter, you bring up their replacements quickly.  Then with a more experienced team you start looking at filling in the gaps with free agent/trade acquisitions with the financial flexibility you have then because you didn't blow it chasing meaningless, non-competitive wins NOW.  

 

THis is rebuilding 101 for a team like the Twins (other teams with huge budgets might have different paths).

 

 

I'm with you as long as the plan then is to add real ballplayers in free agency and trades. If you do as you're suggesting, but then "fill in" with Rondell White's or Ricky Nolasco's and Logan Forsythe's, you will continue to be perpetually mediocre. 

 

Sign or trade for high end guys or fill in with your own is what I would like to see. That doesn't mean you don't make some of these mid level signings, but signing mid level guys to bat 4th or 5th in your lineup, or be a top 2 starter in your rotation has got them in trouble for years.

 

 

[TNTwinsFan]

Might as well resign Dozier if your bar is THAT low.

Seems like it's either all bat or all glove for Middle Infield options...that is unless you're springing for Marwin Gonzales or trading for someone. And at this point I'd take Lemahieu's Gold Glove over Dozier's.

[TNTwinsFan]

Do you know why hitters tend to have a much higher BA in Coors?

 

His sample size away from Coors is robust.  You ain't getting .725.

I'll give you the BA argument...but I doubt altitude accounts for 100% of the BB% delta away from Hitter-Friendly Coors Field. I don't think somewhere around .330 OBP is out of the question over a full season. Not that that OBP is anything to write home about, but, it's acceptable for a GG 2B. Considering this article's question: with the way the roster is assembled currently (with the addition of Cron at 1B and Austin as his primary backup) the Twins will be hard pressed to pick up a FA at any of the perceived open slots on the roster to replace the OBP production of Mauer and Grossman. OPS is another story though and maybe the better topic to discuss.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'll give you the BA argument...but I doubt altitude accounts for 100% of the BB% delta away from Hitter-Friendly Coors Field. I don't think somewhere around .330 OBP is out of the question over a full season. Not that that OBP is anything to write home about, but, it's acceptable for a GG 2B. Considering this article's question: with the way the roster is assembled currently (with the addition of Cron at 1B and Austin as his primary backup) the Twins will be hard pressed to pick up a FA at any of the perceived open slots on the roster to replace the OBP production of Mauer and Grossman. OPS is another story though and maybe the better topic to discuss.

You don't think pitchers tend to nibble more at a place like Coors? Of course walk rates are going to be higher there.

[TNTwinsFan]

You don't think pitchers tend to nibble more at a place like Coors? Of course walk rates are going to be higher there.

Not saying they wouldn't be higher...just say I don't think it accounts for 100% of the difference between home and away BB% splits.

 

Again, it's also interesting to note that Lemahieu homered only 4 times at Coors Field as opposed to 11 times away from Coors Field.