Article: Where Can the Twins Find Some OBP for Their Lineup?

[TNTwinsFan]

Why are you splitting the difference?

.673 career OPS away from Coors Field, .698 last year.

FYI... Lemahieu's OPS away from Coors Field 2 years prior to last year:

 

2017: .753

2016: .747

 

His away OBP those years:

 

2017: .352

2016: .353

 

Obviously those numbers get the Coors Field Bump:

 

2017: .396 OBP/.813 OPS

2016: .473 OBP/1.064 OPS

 

But clearly, Lemahieu has demonstrated an ability to produce away from Coors Field. Last year may have just been a down year; coupled with his Gold Glove defense at 2B it would appear he's worth a 2-3 year contract and would help solidify the number 2 spot in the line up and provide stalwart defense at the Keystone Bag up the middle.

[ewen21]

 

Not all OBP is equal.

Number of extra base hits and the players speed all impact how often the player scores. Grossman had an OBP of .371 with the Twins while Kepler had .313 yet both players scored at the same rate per pa's.

So look a little closer at the OBP number they are not all created equal. Remember OBP rates a walk and a homerun the same.

A-freakin-men!  I will take a guy with a .310 OPS and a .200 ISO over a guy with a 350 OPS  and a .100 ISO if all other things are equal.  No ifs ands or buts.

 

Getting on base is a big thing, but it's not the BEST thing.  I would much prefer a home run to a walk in every single circumstance.  One would be insane to feel otherwise.

[TNTwinsFan]

Upon some brief investigation, it appears last year Lemahieu suffered from trying to elevate the ball more. It resulted in more fly balls and a high HR/FB%...but it looks like he got VERY pull happy too. I believe this was to his detriment. In my uneducated, unprofessional opinion, he goes back to hittling line drives and using the whole field again and he becomes a .350+/.775 OPS guy again.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Bringing in mediocre at best free agents and your prospects up essentially piece meal will mean you will go through an extended "rebuilding" period of losing, losing, losing.  This is not hindsight.  I have been saying this since the start of 2012.  

So you've been saying since the start of 2012, when they drafted Buxton, that they should focus internally and build around their own talent. And now that Buxton is 25 years old and entering his ostensible prime, you are advocating that they continue to perpetually follow some bland "be crappy and hope" plan? 

 

Your biggest takeaway from what we've seen unfold is that the Twins should stake all their hopes on their top prospects? 

 

Personally, yes, I like contending for the division and wild-card. It means they're playing quality baseball, and I don't have to leave Target Field in a bad mood every time I go to watch a game. It means they're relevant in August and September. It means they're starting to establish a culture of winning, which actually matters.

 

I'll never understand the notion that if you don't have a bona fide World Series contending team on paper (which will rarely happen in the age of mega-spending powerhouses), you should just tank. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

But clearly, Lemahieu has demonstrated an ability to produce away from Coors Field. Last year may have just been a down year; coupled with his Gold Glove defense at 2B it would appear he's worth a 2-3 year contract and would help solidify the number 2 spot in the line up and provide stalwart defense at the Keystone Bag up the middle.

 

This is not clear at all.  One of the reason batting averages are higher in Coors is how deep they have to play outfielders.  

 

You will get a .700 OPS player with Lemahieu.  That would rank 27th among 2B with at least 300 at-bats last year.

 

No thanks.

[yarnivek1972]

This is not clear at all. One of the reason batting averages are higher in Coors is how deep they have to play outfielders.

 

You will get a .700 OPS player with Lemahieu. That would rank 27th among 2B with at least 300 at-bats last year.

 

No thanks.

Another reason batting averages are high there are the ridiculously large dimensions. Such a large outfield means that fly balls that are outs elsewhere drop in because the outfielders have much more ground to cover.

[TNTwinsFan]

This is not clear at all.  One of the reason batting averages are higher in Coors is how deep they have to play outfielders.  

 

You will get a .700 OPS player with Lemahieu.  That would rank 27th among 2B with at least 300 at-bats last year.

 

No thanks.

2 out of 3 years of production away from Coors Field and it's spacious dimensions and think air say otherwise no?

[Nick Nelson]

 

This is not clear at all.  One of the reason batting averages are higher in Coors is how deep they have to play outfielders.  

 

You will get a .700 OPS player with Lemahieu.  That would rank 27th among 2B with at least 300 at-bats last year.

 

No thanks.

I wouldn't quite go this far. We need to account for the fact that players hit worse away from home in general. It isn't fair to apply his road numbers as his baseline, especially when he shows a lot of positive traits as a hitter. 

 

I actually think LeMaheiu would be a nice option at the right price. This piece at FanGraphs was eye-opening for me. 

[TNTwinsFan]

I wouldn't quite go this far. We need to account for the fact that players hit worse away from home in general. It isn't fair to apply his road numbers as his baseline, especially when he shows a lot of positive traits as a hitter. 

 

I actually think LeMaheiu would be a nice option at the right price. This piece at FanGraphs was eye-opening for me.

 

2-3 years at $9-$12 million per year sounds about right and something that might be a good way for the Twins to solidify 2B for a few years. Even if Lewis gets called up and rakes in the first year (2020) that leaves 2 years of he and Lemahieu up the middle with Polanco shifting to more of a Utility role. And I believe that timeline for Lewis may even be a bit optimistic. Lemahieu is young enough to stick around for a few years and still be pretty productive; potentially during the last three years of his peak. Do. It.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I wouldn't quite go this far. We need to account for the fact that players hit worse away from home in general. It isn't fair to apply his road numbers as his baseline, especially when he shows a lot of positive traits as a hitter. 

 

I actually think LeMaheiu would be a nice option at the right price. This piece at FanGraphs was eye-opening for me. 

 

That's a lot of money to spend on a hypothetical.  Even in a year, last year, in which he made that pull power more of a thing, he still only managed a .698 OPS away from Coors.  His career split has a .150 differential.  That's enormous and is 4,000 PA sample size.  

 

Most of his offensive value is driven by hitting singles and doubles in front outfielders.  A trait that hitting in Coors aids tremendously.  (And is absurdly evident in the stats) Take him out of there and you will regret the contract before the ink dries.

 

If someone else wants to spend 30M hoping they can turn a slim hope into reality - by all means.  There are better options.

Edited December 5, 2018 by TheLeviathan

[TNTwinsFan]

What are the better options in this year's FA Class?

[jorgenswest]

I would go with the infielder who will take a one year deal. I think this is the position to wait out. The losing team will be the one that spends big on Gonzalez. Through his prime he has a career negative UZR around the infield. He has one fantastic year surrounded by years that won’t work well as a LF. As he declines and has to move away from middle infield I don’t think his bat will play well on a corner.

[mlhouse]

 

I'm with you as long as the plan then is to add real ballplayers in free agency and trades. If you do as you're suggesting, but then "fill in" with Rondell White's or Ricky Nolasco's and Logan Forsythe's, you will continue to be perpetually mediocre. 

 

Sign or trade for high end guys or fill in with your own is what I would like to see. That doesn't mean you don't make some of these mid level signings, but signing mid level guys to bat 4th or 5th in your lineup, or be a top 2 starter in your rotation has got them in trouble for years.

 

What you are missing is that the success or failure of the Twins in the near term is not based upon Rondell White or Logan Forsythe, guys you bring in to fill in.  Instead, it depends upon the core group of prospects.   

 

If Lewis-Kirilloff-Rooker-Berrios become Puckett-Hrbek-Gaetti-Viola, some of the other prospects become the Greg Gagne's and Dan Gladden, and the "fill in" players Brian Harper, Shane Mack, and Chili Davis then we have a chance to compete.

 

If they become 2018 versions of Miguel Sano and Buxton, then it is a much longer stretch of misery for us.

 

Also, instead of committing $10-15-20 million  a year on guys like Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, and even Ervin Santana, use your prospects while you are rebuilding so you have the financial flexibility to make a better free agent play once it will matter.  Ervin Santana had, despite injuries, the best 4 year stretch of his career, including 2017 which was the best year of his career.  Yet, the Twins spent $55 million (including the $1 million buyout) to average 86 losses in his 4 years on the roster.   I call that a waste of money.

[TheLeviathan]

 

What are the better options in this year's FA Class?

 

I'd rather have Gonzalez, Iglesias (because of his position), or even Dozier.  

[DocBauer]

I just don't feel this is an either or situation. In other words, I don't think you have to sign a bunch of guys and "buy" a team to try to compete. But I also don't think you have to promote/rush guys from AA and A ball and force feed them hoping they will adapt. Even if you promote aggressively, there is still value in learning and honing skills.

 

The Twins have some really fine and still young talent. Have we seen them all reach or approach their potential? Of course not! But other than Rosario, I believe they are all 25-ish. And you have a new season, hopefully better health, and a new manager and staff to work with them.

 

Why can't you be aggressive in the system in 2019 while working with what you have, and still add a few guys on 1,2 and 3 year deals to build the roster and play good/better ball NOW?

 

With the number of options available on the market, this could be accomplished. Sign a big RP arm for 3yrs. Why can't said reliever still be good when Lewis, Khirilloff, etc, arrive? Sign one more good one maybe on a shorter deal and a flier or two.

 

I just don't think it's either or.

[DocBauer]

Back on original topic, I really like the discussion of OB vs OPS. I think it's an important topic and discussion.

 

Internally, for example, I've previously mentioned a healthy Buxton simply making better contact and hitting in the .250 range with a low .300 OB. Obviously not what anyone wants to see, or previously expected, and maybe it really is his floor and he can/will do much better. But it's a start. With natural power and tremendous speed, even at those "levels" he could rather easily be a 30+ doubles, 15-18+HR guy with 30SB and high 3B totals. I don't know how that would equate to OPS, but I think it would be pretty impressive.

 

I really think the prime place right now to look at is 2B. Lowrie will lose it one of these days, but he's still a quality player who gives you a bit of everything. Gonzalez may not match him for OB, but might end up with as good or better OPS.

 

Not sure which one I'd prefer. And who know's about Schoop? If you look at his 15-16 numbers he's still a nice player, but I think a 3rd, or lower choice, IMO. But what if he could be even close to his 2017 self?

[jorgenswest]

Just a wonder...

 

Are high strikeout players with an OPS that is homer driven more likely to slumps?

 

Do teams with a lot of these players tend to win their games by multiple runs but lose lots of close games?

 

Why does OBP have a higher correlation to wins than SLG?

[ashbury]

Just a wonder...

 

Are high strikeout players with an OPS that is homer driven more likely to slumps?

 

Do teams with a lot of these players tend to win their games by multiple runs but lose lots of close games?

 

Why does OBP have a higher correlation to wins than SLG?

I'll take a crack at that last one. The game is over when you make your 27th out as a team (24 if you're winning, other numbers in certain cases). So, not making an out at your turn can be thought of as the single most important skill in the game. OBP is basically the mirror image of making outs.

[Major League Ready]

How about if a hole bunch of the guys currently on the roster take better ABs and the OBP goes up. There is no excuse for the complete lack of discipline Rosario often displays. I don't remember the exact ranking but he was in the top 10 worst in MLB for swinging outside the zone. There were short bursts where the team overall managed to show some disciplined hitting and it looked like a different team. 

Edited December 8, 2018 by Major League Ready

[jorgenswest]

How about if a hole bunch of the guys currently on the roster take better ABs and the OBP goes up. There is no excuse for the complete lack of discipline Rosario often displays. I don't remember the exact ranking but he was in the top 10 worst in MLB for swinging outside the zone. There were short bursts where the team overall managed to show some disciplined hitting and it looked like a different team.

 

Is strike zone recognition a talent or a mindset? Some of both no doubt and players do improve their pitch recognition as they see more major league pitches. I think it is more skill and talent than mindset. It is hard to have plate discipline when your pitch recognition talent is weak. Rosario makes up for it with great hands. His pitch recognition will get better but I don’t think his deficit is lack of discipline. I think it is lack of that talent/skill.

[Major League Ready]

 

Is strike zone recognition a talent or a mindset? Some of both no doubt and players do improve their pitch recognition as they see more major league pitches. I think it is more skill and talent than mindset. It is hard to have plate discipline when your pitch recognition talent is weak. Rosario makes up for it with great hands. His pitch recognition will get better but I don’t think his deficit is lack of discipline. I think it is lack of that talent/skill.

 

You make a good point in that it's not as simple as just better discipline and pitch recognition is a skill with limitations regardless of approach. Rosario seems to get a pass with most people. I don't think it's pitch recognition because it does not look like he is fooled and he swings at pitches that are not even remotely close. Quite often It looks like he has no approach, no plan whatsoever, just swing at whatever is thrown. He was the worst hitter on the team the 2nd half and it looked to me like the pitchers had adapted and used his lack of discipline to turn him into a very poor hitter. I hope he proves me completely wrong but I don't have nearly the confidence in him as most do here. I would trade him if someone was willing to give value commensurate with his 1st half performance.

 

Edited December 8, 2018 by Major League Ready

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Rosario seems to often lose focus in a lost situation (a losing game, or the second half of last year) which yes speaks to a lack of discipline. He's also our best player. Should have been an All Star last year. He's matured as a hitter from his first two seasons, and he's entering his peak years. He's a free swinger, as Oliva and Puckett were. In the context of this thread, he's the least of our worries, so yes, he gets a pass from me.

[Winston Smith]

"It is well understood (and intuitively obvious) that on-base percentage correlates highly with run-scoring...…"

 

With the Twins:

 

Grossman: 1310 pa's, .371 obp scoring a run 12.3% of pa's

 

Kepler; 1633 pa's, .313 obp scoring a run 12.2% of pa's

 

Rosario: 2009 pa's, .312 obp scoring run 13.8% of pa's

 

Mauer (last 3yrs)  1713 pa's, .366 obp scoring a run 11.7% of pa's

[jorgenswest]

 

"It is well understood (and intuitively obvious) that on-base percentage correlates highly with run-scoring...…"

 

With the Twins:

 

Grossman: 1310 pa's, .371 obp scoring a run 12.3% of pa's

 

Kepler; 1633 pa's, .313 obp scoring a run 12.2% of pa's

 

Rosario: 2009 pa's, .312 obp scoring run 13.8% of pa's

 

Mauer (last 3yrs)  1713 pa's, .366 obp scoring a run 11.7% of pa's

 

Team OBP correlates with team runs scored.

 

Is it true in every run scoring environment? Maybe not.

 

http://www.banishedtothepen.com/when-slugging-percentage-beats-on-base-percentage/

 

 

[Kirbek]

 

How does Harper make our pitchers better?

I am back...I would say Harper makes our pitchers better because they can pitch from a lead more often.  It sounds like a moot point now anyway.  I think he would make everyone better in a place like this.

[Mr. Brooks]

I am back...I would say Harper makes our pitchers better because they can pitch from a lead more often. It sounds like a moot point now anyway. I think he would make everyone better in a place like this.

Not sure I've ever seen any evidence that pitchers pitch better with a lead.

 

Do you have any theories on why that'd be the case?

[Doomtints]

 

Not sure I've ever seen any evidence that pitchers pitch better with a lead.

Do you have any theories on why that'd be the case?

 

Without looking I would guess the numbers support this, but what's going on is probably the opposite. Average (and below) hitters probably hit worse when the team is behind, at least in general.

[ashbury]

Average (and below) hitters probably hit worse when the team is behind, at least in general.

The chances that the opposing starting pitcher is pretty good have to be higher when you slice and dice the data to look at games where the team is behind.

[Kirbek]

 

Not sure I've ever seen any evidence that pitchers pitch better with a lead.

Do you have any theories on why that'd be the case?

 

I love the new statistical evaluation methods used today, but they have limits.  To argue Harper does not make this team better and more exciting to watch illustrates the limits.

 

Has anyone run any metrics on Kirby Puckett and Kent Hrbek lately.  Please explain to me why they heck they won 2!

[Mr. Brooks]

I love the new statistical evaluation methods used today, but they have limits. To argue Harper does not make this team better and more exciting to watch illustrates the limits.

 

Has anyone run any metrics on Kirby Puckett and Kent Hrbek lately. Please explain to me why they heck they won 2!

That's not what I asked.

Of course he would make the team better.

I'm asking why he would make the pitchers pitch better. He's not a defensive upgrade. So what about his presence on the team would make the pitchers perform better?