Go Get Madison Bumgarner

[Vanimal46]

The Giants are in a weird position. Almost similar to the 2010/11 Twins. Lots of veterans on big money contracts, and a barren farm to prevent them from truly going for it.

 

Hence why there are rumors about trading one of their best MLB assets Madison Bumgarner. He's on the last year of his contract making $12 million. The last couple of years have been derailed by fluke injuries. Even with the fluke injuries, he hasn't had anything reconstructive done to his arm.

 

I see Bumgarner as a perfect fit for the Twins... Let's be honest, the Twins will never be in the $20 million AAV market for pitching. Bumgarner's current price tag is right in the Twins' wheelhouse.

 

Considering he has one year of control left before FA, the return will be suppressed compared to this time 3 years ago.

 

When healthy he has been a work horse, top of the rotation pitcher. He fills multiple holes for the team slotting in above Gibson/Berrios, and being left handed.

 

What am I missing here? Let's get this done.

[beckmt]

What you're missing is that his  velocity is down,  He is more like a #2 or #3 now not a number 1.  Could he recover, maybe, but are you willing to risk resources needed to get him for 1 year.

If the Giants want significant resources, what are you planning to send them in return.  Would not gut the farm system for a one year rental.  I could think of a few trades if the Giants want salary relief and some near major league pieces (Cave, Gonsalves or Littell,  with maybe another lottery ticket).  And there are posters on this board who might think this is too much.  Might be different if we could work an extension before trading for him (really doubt this). 

So would take a hard pass on this.

[Winston Smith]

Ave 120 innings the last two years, not exactly the horse he used to be.

[gunnarthor]

Since he's so important to SF's fanbase, is there anyway we could get him without including either Lewis or Kiriloff? If I'm SF, unless my doors are blown off, I might just hold him until the deadline and see which teams are going to shell out for an ace.

 

I agree on the premise. I love Bumgarner and would like to see him in our rotation.

[Vanimal46]

What you're missing is that his velocity is down, He is more like a #2 or #3 now not a number 1. Could he recover, maybe, but are you willing to risk resources needed to get him for 1 year.

If the Giants want significant resources, what are you planning to send them in return. Would not gut the farm system for a one year rental. I could think of a few trades if the Giants want salary relief and some near major league pieces (Cave, Gonsalves or Littell, with maybe another lottery ticket). And there are posters on this board who might think this is too much. Might be different if we could work an extension before trading for him (really doubt this).

So would take a hard pass on this.

Yes I'm willing to risk the resources for 1 year of Bumgarner. There will never be a time except right now where his contract rate and price tag makes sense for a mid-market team like the Twins.

[Vanimal46]

Since he's so important to SF's fanbase, is there anyway we could get him without including either Lewis or Kiriloff? If I'm SF, unless my doors are blown off, I might just hold him until the deadline and see which teams are going to shell out for an ace.

 

I agree on the premise. I love Bumgarner and would like to see him in our rotation.

I think so considering he only has 1 year of control left. Dozier was important to Minnesota's fanbase and look what that got us.

[Vanimal46]

Ave 120 innings the last two years, not exactly the horse he used to be.

Those are the fluke injuries I was talking about. He fell off his dirt bike and injured his shoulder, causing him to miss 3 months in 2017. Then he was hit in the hand by a line drive causing more time on the DL.

[cmoss84]

It will never happen, but I want the Twins to go all in this year (and maybe 2 years after that).

 

Love the idea of trading for Bumgarner AND Syndergaard. Our division is down-the time to go for it is now! Let's say we gave up a combo of Kiriloff, Graterol, Cave, Gonsalves, Romero and a couple prospects outside of the top 20. 

 

How would you like a rotation of:

1) Syndergaard

2) Bumgarner

3) Berrios

4) Gibson

5) Pineda/Odorizzi

 

This is a rotation that gives you a chance to win every night...no matter who is in our lineup. 

* This is absolutely a rare year where multiple aces are available at the same time...all while we have the prospects to go get them

 

**rambling on here...but if we managed to get to the playoffs, those top 3 would look mighty nice in any playoff series. 

[labcrazy]

Plus he could DH on his non pitching days

[Vanimal46]

Plus he could DH on his non pitching days

Flexibility at its finest!

[Vanimal46]

For those concerned about who the Twins need to trade...

 

Jeff Sullivan doesn't think it will take much. Get.It.Done.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/madison-bumgarner-wont-fetch-the-giants-that-much/

[SomeGuy]

Can't get on board with this at one year.  I would much rather keep whatever prospects it takes to land him.  Its hard to imagine 2019 as an "all in" year with so many question marks. 

[cmoss84]

 

Can't get on board with this at one year.  I would much rather keep whatever prospects it takes to land him.  Its hard to imagine 2019 as an "all in" year with so many question marks. 

You are right, we have a ton of question marks. However, this off-season seems to be a once-in-a-decade kind of off-season. Aces (who are cheap no less) are available via trade, and we have the farm to take advantage. A lot of depth at each position in FA. We have money. We have a weak division. This just seems like the perfect storm that we NEED to take advantage of. 

[SomeGuy]

 

For those concerned about who the Twins need to trade...

Jeff Sullivan doesn't think it will take much. Get.It.Done.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/madison-bumgarner-wont-fetch-the-giants-that-much/

This was my favorite line from the article.

 

And it makes me wonder whether Zaidi might be better off waiting until July. That might seem like procrastination, but it could conceivably work in the Giants’ favor.

 

He would likely be the best available and maybe a contender gets desperate.  Of course he would need to pitch well and stay healthy but if two middling prospects is the return, taking the qualifying offer pick wouldn't be that much worse.

[nicksaviking]

I'm really not digging that drop to 7.57 K/9. I think he's going to be floating in Carl Pavano territory upon a move to the AL. His increased walk rate is also alarming. Sadly I think he's nearing the end of the road despite what his ERA says. He's only 29-years-old but he's been in the majors since he was 19. I think I'd rather see Romero.

[Vanimal46]

I'm really not digging that drop to 7.57 K/9. I think he's going to be floating in Carl Pavano territory upon a move to the AL. His increased walk rate is also alarming. Sadly I think he's nearing the end of the road despite what his ERA says. He's only 29-years-old but he's been in the majors since he was 19. I think I'd rather see Romero.

I think a broken finger from a line drive has something to do with the decrease in K's...

[SomeGuy]

 

 

You are right, we have a ton of question marks. However, this off-season seems to be a once-in-a-decade kind of off-season. Aces (who are cheap no less) are available via trade, and we have the farm to take advantage. A lot of depth at each position in FA. We have money. We have a weak division. This just seems like the perfect storm that we NEED to take advantage of. 

We have the Financial ability to take on a good sized FA contract too.  Everybody says we aren't in on Corbin, Keuchel, or Eovaldi but why not?  For once we have the available payroll for any of them, in these cases we get multiple years.  Go with Syndergaard for 3 years or stick with the FA market.

 

Is Bumgarner that good anymore?  Last 2 years 3.95 and 3.99 FIP (Berrios was better both seasons), declining fastball, injury history. 

 

I know recent prospect history might leave some skeptical but I don't see anyway going all in this year as a better option than trying to make a competitive window out of 2020-2025.  Bumgarner might make 2019 marginally better but he makes 2020 and beyond worse.  If we sneak past Cleveland, do we match up with Houston? Boston? New York?

 

[Vanimal46]

Preventing runs is still the name of the game. He had ERAs of 3.32 in 2017, 3.26 in 2018.

 

His only injury history is fluke injuries I mentioned in a post above.

 

Having Bumgarner helps match up better against BOS, HOU, NYY compared to the alternative... Which is a smorgasbord of 15 different names we can choose from internally.

[cmoss84]

 

We have the Financial ability to take on a good sized FA contract too.  Everybody says we aren't in on Corbin, Keuchel, or Eovaldi but why not?  For once we have the available payroll for any of them, in these cases we get multiple years.  Go with Syndergaard for 3 years or stick with the FA market.

 

Is Bumgarner that good anymore?  Last 2 years 3.95 and 3.99 FIP (Berrios was better both seasons), declining fastball, injury history. 

 

I know recent prospect history might leave some skeptical but I don't see anyway going all in this year as a better option than trying to make a competitive window out of 2020-2025.  Bumgarner might make 2019 marginally better but he makes 2020 and beyond worse.  If we sneak past Cleveland, do we match up with Houston? Boston? New York?

I'm not saying Bumgarner should be the only move-I'd like it to be a complimentary move to getting Noah (or as you say, signing a good FA SP). This way we would have a 3-headed monster at the top of the rotation.

 

Yes, he is still very good. Is he top-5 pitcher in baseball like he used to be? No, but he is top 20 and is awesome in the playoffs. 

I think it would be an easier transition to the AL for him than many of you think. The Dodgers have a very american league-ish lineup. Pitching in Arizona and Colorado...not that easy.

 

[Jacksson]

We can probably get him without Lewis & Kiriloff IF we agreed to TAKE either Belt or Longoria off their hands.

Ordizzi, Gonsalves, Mejia, Kepler, Granite & Hildenberger for Belt and Bumgarner.

Bumgarner is an "outdoorsy" guy from North Carolina who may just enjoy all the outdoor activities available in MN all year round.

He just may be interested in resigning after experiencing life here for a year.

He has been banged up for 2 years with fluke injuries so probably has not been himself physically during that time.

In addition, he's probably getting a belly full of being deprived of top level stats due to the Giants anemic offense and over matched bullpen.

[jkcarew]

 

For those concerned about who the Twins need to trade...

Jeff Sullivan doesn't think it will take much. Get.It.Done.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/madison-bumgarner-wont-fetch-the-giants-that-much/

This article does a good job of making the argument that the price would be relatively low. Unfortunately, it does an even better job (to me anyway) of explaining how his performance in recent years plays into the 'low' price. I agree that the injuries, given their nature, are not high-risk for reoccurring. But, some injuries result in lasting degradation of performance, and we have no way of knowing if that's what we're seeing/saw in 2017/2018, especially with the shoulder.

 

Is he likely to make our 2019 starting rotation better.  Yes, I think so. But it's not obvious that he'd be a huge needle mover at this point, especially given how much the needle would need to be moved in 2019. On the other hand, I could see him as a piece, if part of a big (not Twins big, but ACTUALLY big) 'all-in' plan for 2019. Absent such plan, I'd still consider him at a low price...with the hope that he bounces back and provides the Twins the opportunity of flipping him for a net gain at the 2019 deadline.

[Vanimal46]

This article does a good job of making the argument that the price would be relatively low. Unfortunately, it does an even better job (to me anyway) of explaining how his performance in recent years plays into the 'low' price. I agree that the injuries, given their nature, are not high-risk for reoccurring. But, some injuries result in lasting degradation of performance, and we have no way of knowing if that's what we're seeing/saw in 2017/2018, especially with the shoulder.

 

Is he likely to make our 2019 starting rotation better. Yes, I think so. But it's not obvious that he'd be a huge needle mover at this point, especially given how much the needle would need to be moved in 2019. On the other hand, I could see him as a piece, if part of a big (not Twins big, but ACTUALLY big) 'all-in' plan for 2019. Absent such plan, I'd still consider him at a low price...with the hope that he bounces back and provides the Twins the opportunity of flipping him for a net gain at the 2019 deadline.

That's fair to say. IMO since his injuries were flukes, and he's still 29 years old I'm confident he can have a bounce back season. His delivery is low impact and he's refining his approach to use more offspeed stuff to extend his career.

[TheLeviathan]

I'd put in a call, but I'd rather buy in on Sonny Gray.

[Moosa105]

We can probably get him without Lewis & Kiriloff IF we agreed to TAKE either Belt or Longoria off their hands.Ordizzi, Gonsalves, Mejia, Kepler, Granite & Hildenberger for Belt and Bumgarner.Bumgarner is an "outdoorsy" guy from North Carolina who may just enjoy all the outdoor activities available in MN all year round.He just may be interested in resigning after experiencing life here for a year.He has been banged up for 2 years with fluke injuries so probably has not been himself physically during that time.In addition, he's probably getting a belly full of being deprived of top level stats due to the Giants anemic offense and over matched bullpen.

Wayyy to much.

[lukeduke1980]

Like others suggested I think you'd have to take another contract with him.  Maybe Belt or Longoria, which I'd be okay with.  If I were the Giants, I'd keep him until July and let him rebuild some trade value.

[Riverbrian]

Like others suggested I think you'd have to take another contract with him. Maybe Belt or Longoria, which I'd be okay with. If I were the Giants, I'd keep him until July and let him rebuild some trade value.

If I’m the Giants. Sure I’d like to shed payroll but money has never been much of a concern in SF. Where they are really hurting is prospects.

 

So if I’m the Giants. I want nothing deluting the prospect return for Madbum. I’m keeping bad contracts as far away from him as possible.

[DocBauer]

Maybe I missed it, but I'm assuming the shoulder injury from the dirt bike accident was his throwing arm. Not sure I'd call that a fluke, if that's the case. (Granted, I'm spitballing here and not privy to all the information at the moment). Also granted, the finger injury does qualify as a fluke. But we saw with Santana what a finger injury can mean. (I get that Santana is older).

 

NL to AL, pair of "fluke" injuries, declining velocity and K numbers, playing in a friendly park...hmmmm....not sure I'm interested. Under 30 and with hope of health and adapting to a different pitching approach, i.e., more breaking balls, change of speed, etc, I could be interested if the price is right.

 

Would a pitching prospect like Gonsalves and another top 10-20 prospect make the deal work? If it would, I think I'd be inclined for health, a rebound, and hope he enjoys his time with the Twins to sign an extension.