Article: 4 Creative Tweaks the Twins Can Make to Get Better

[bird]

I don't have strong opinions about how I'd deploy players. I just know I resonate to the whole flex concept, both with pitching and positional players.

 

I especially like the idea of flexibility of usage with strong-armed pitchers with dominating stuff like Romero and May, and with the notion of knowing how to guard against the damage that can be done against guys like Over Easy and Mejia and maybe Stewart and others. I'm warming up to this new age.

 

And I love the concept of a grouping of complimentary players to handle RF/1B/DH and the 5-7 slots. Especially if it addresses matchup opportunities and involves players who don't create a deficit defensively. 

 

If I had a Luger pressed to my temple and was told to make the call:

 

I'd cut a check for McCutcheon or Brantley, cut a check for Lowrie or similar placeholder for 2019, live with Polanco for another year at SS. Be fine with Turtle and Adrianza as bench players, along with, more often than not, Austin and Cave. Kepler gets time at1B against righties with Cron shifting "down" to DH or to the bench. Basically, I'd hand out gloves to Kepler, Cave, Kirilloff, Rooker, Larnach, and anyone else who profiles as a member of that grouping and look to upgrade as fast as possible from Austin, Cron, and maybe even Cave.

 

I'd pick up one more front line starter via trade or FA, and two of the Robertson/Familia tier RP's via FA. That lets me shift Mejia and Romero to the BP to join the new guys and May and Rogers, maybe Hildenberger (now fixed and used correctly?). Over Easy, Pineda, and Stewart become primaries, most of the time. Or they get moved, who knows? Short leashes. Speaking of which, I'm always a potential seller from surplus at the deadline, and always a shopper too, opportunistically.

 

None of these decisions are worth squat without performance to expectation from BOTH Sano and Buxton in 2019. Additionally, my status as a genius is equally dependent on running the table with Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, and Graterol. My flops have to be from prospects further down the list, guys like Rooker, Gordon, and Gonsalves.

 

In short, my whole "flex plan" philosophy and strategy has to extend to every area: between the lines, development, trades, deadline decisions, all decisions. Opportunistic, flexible in thought and action, nimble, rigorous calculation of risks as an alternative to simply experimenting.

 

Anyway, I love the thinking Nick has offered, and love the many terrific thoughts others have posted. Great morning read.

 

[SF Twins Fan]

I think people are completely forgetting why Romero has only pitched ~ 5 innings per game. He basically missed two full seasons in 2014 and 2015, so it has taken him some time to build his arm strength back up. In 2016 he pitched 90.1 innings, 2017 he pitched 125 innings and in 2018 he pitched 146.1 innings. There is no reason to think he won't increase his innings pitched in 2019 to ~ 175. He's basically been on a pitch count / innings limit every game to make sure he could finish the season.

[mlhouse]

1.   I think the Twins should try Taylor Rogers as a starting pitcher.  He added a 3rd pitch and was a starter through most of his career, and would give the Twins a left handed starter.

 

2.   I disagree with moving Kepler to first.  The Twins already have several players that have defensive limitations that they need to keep the position open for.  It is a natural spot for Miguel Sano.  They have Tyler Austin.   And now just added CJ Cron to that group.  Brent Rooker is sitting in the minors, and I could see them adding a guy like Ryan O'Hearn in the Rule 5 draft to get a left handed hitter to that mix.  

[AceWrigley]

<<I get that Austudillo is a fun guy to have around.So was Mickey Hatcher. Coincidence that we won a World Series AFTER Hatcher left?>>

 

Hatcher played 12 years, and hit very well in the post season for the '88 Dodgers, batting over .300 with 2 world series homers. Those early/mid '80's Twins teams had bigger problems than Mickey Hatcher who played his posterior off every game. Besides, anyone who runs Tony Lasorda'a pants up a flag pole as a prank is aces to me. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

1.   I think the Twins should try Taylor Rogers as a starting pitcher.  He added a 3rd pitch and was a starter through most of his career, and would give the Twins a left handed starter.

 

2.   I disagree with moving Kepler to first.  The Twins already have several players that have defensive limitations that they need to keep the position open for.  It is a natural spot for Miguel Sano.  They have Tyler Austin.   And now just added CJ Cron to that group.  Brent Rooker is sitting in the minors, and I could see them adding a guy like Ryan O'Hearn in the Rule 5 draft to get a left handed hitter to that mix.  

 

If you need a LHP starter for some reason, you have Mejia.....I wouldn't move Rogers in a million years. He's doing what he should be.

[hybridbear]

Why move Kepler to 1B when his defense in RF is so good? Seems like that would cost the Twins in DRS...

I love the Astudillo idea and want to see "La tortuga" play every day!

[nicksaviking]

 

I think the flaw here is that not all chances are equal. It's true that a majority of RF chances are cans of corn. But the majority of chances at 1B are also routine. The batter at least is trying to hit something that a RFer can't get to; the shortstop throwing to first is trying to give the 1Bman something he can handle.

 

Also, the consequences of a poor play at 1B are not as great as in RF. The batter could easily end up on third base with a muff in RF, or sometimes go all the way home. Also anyone already on base has a better chance of grabbing an extra base if the missed ball has to come in from the outfield, than if the first baseman can somewhat corral it or if (say) the catcher is backing things up.

 

If I can't have both, I'll trade 1B prowess for RF prowess any day of the week.

 

I agree with this, but not in the context of Target Field. There's no foul territory and if your back is against the wall you need to take about two steps to shake the second baseman's hand if he's playing in the hole. And if Buxton is in CF, the territory the right fielder needs to cover is about the size of a wading pool. Look no further than Torii Hunter's transition from the worst RF in the history of the game in Detroit as a 39-year-old to suddenly becoming league average again in Minnesota as a 40-year-old.

 

I don't think the ballpark requires a lot defensively from the position, if anything, the angles of the wall need to be learned. With that belief, I'd take advantage of the ballpark and get the best possible bat for the spot and worry about a defensive platoon or Kepler playing there more often during the road games.

[JD Green]

Kepler didnt have to play 1B because we had Joe. Would be good to have Max available to play 1B for a LH bat, and another LH bat in RF, or due to an injury to Cron.

 

May wants to be in the pen. He feels he can be more effective there. Sounds like that is where his confidence is best suited. 

 

Start with Romero in the pen and let him build his confidence there and give him some spot starts as he progresses. Seemed to work OK for Johan.

 

We need more than a half a pen where the manager doesn't dare to use the other half.

 

Let Austudillo play. That is the only way he can prove he is what we are hoping to see from him. He has his foot in the door, so let him open it. I personally would like to see him kick the door down!!!

[Mike Sixel]

my thought on Astudillo.......give him a shot to prove us right or wrong. That is what other teams seem to do, trust results and see if they stick. 

[Steve Lein]

 

I think people are completely forgetting why Romero has only pitched ~ 5 innings per game. He basically missed two full seasons in 2014 and 2015, so it has taken him some time to build his arm strength back up. In 2016 he pitched 90.1 innings, 2017 he pitched 125 innings and in 2018 he pitched 146.1 innings. There is no reason to think he won't increase his innings pitched in 2019 to ~ 175. He's basically been on a pitch count / innings limit every game to make sure he could finish the season.

 

Yeah, but when you're reaching your pitch count in the fifth inning, this idea falls apart at this point in his development (he threw 90+ pitches a lot this year).

[caninatl04]

My few thoughts:

 

Putting Romero in the pen / closer in 2019 does NOT preclude moving him to starter in 2020 or beyond.  The need for starter is less in 2019 that beyond.

 

For similar reasons, keep Rodgers in the bullpen for 2019 and reevaluate pre-2020.

 

As for Austudillo, with the increasing use of a 13 man pitching staff, and the use of a DH in the AL, many games will be played with a 3-man bench.  His flexibility as a starter or bench will be invaluable. Just one example:  one some days, Garver can start a 1B and Austudillo can back up at catcher.  Or he can start at 3B and Sano can DH.

 

 

[I Never Bet On Sports]

Wondering if 2019 will be the year of the "shared starter" role. The Opener role seems to be catching on. I would love to see the Twins pair two starters, lefty righty or pitchers with two different styles / speeds where they routinely go 4 innings / 60 pitches max and then always go to the other starter for the next 4 innings / 60 pitches. I understand that would take 10 roster spots for all five starts in the rotation but could see a team do this with 8 starters and a 3 day rest rotation or just do this for your 5th/6th starters always paired together. 

[jmlease1]

 

I agree with this, but not in the context of Target Field. There's no foul territory and if your back is against the wall you need to take about two steps to shake the second baseman's hand if he's playing in the hole. And if Buxton is in CF, the territory the right fielder needs to cover is about the size of a wading pool. Look no further than Torii Hunter's transition from the worst RF in the history of the game in Detroit as a 39-year-old to suddenly becoming league average again in Minnesota as a 40-year-old.

 

I don't think the ballpark requires a lot defensively from the position, if anything, the angles of the wall need to be learned. With that belief, I'd take advantage of the ballpark and get the best possible bat for the spot and worry about a defensive platoon or Kepler playing there more often during the road games.

 

Torii was not a "league average" defender out there in 2015, not even close. he was almost exactly as awful as he was in 2013 with the Tigers, he just wasn't as horrendously abysmal as he was in 2014 with the Tigers. Torii was 2017 Eddie Rosario in Target Field: awful. target Field did not make Torii a league average player again, he was in fact a sub-replacement level player by bWAR.

 

I don't think Target Field is some bandbox with high walls to keep the HRs in play, either. And yes, with Buxton in CF the RF doesn't have to cover as much territory, but with a fielder of Kepler's capacity whomever is playing CF can shade over to LF and help Rosario out without losing anything.

[Major League Ready]

 

If you need a LHP starter for some reason, you have Mejia.....I wouldn't move Rogers in a million years. He's doing what he should be.

 

What is Chicago would have taken that position with Chris Sale. This would be the year to experiment. What an incredible impact if you could get 180 innings for the next 4 years of anywhere near the dominance he had last year out of the BP. It's whole lot easier to find dominant RPs than to find an ace, a LH ace to boot. Where creative ideas are concerned, this one has the potential to be a huge plus. 

Edited November 28, 2018 by Major League Ready

[SF Twins Fan]

 

Yeah, but when you're reaching your pitch count in the fifth inning, this idea falls apart at this point in his development (he threw 90+ pitches a lot this year).

 

He only threw 90 + pitches in 8 of his 16 starts in AAA this season. Of those 8 games where he threw 90 + pitches here are his inning totals: 6, 5.2, 7, 7.2, 7.2, 6.2, 8 and 4. Those look like good totals to me. Below is a link to all of his AAA starts and it's clear he was wearing down at the end of his season. He's obviously going to need to make some adjustments in the MLB but he's only had 11 starts. I'd like to have him more than a full season before we declare he can't be a starter.

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=622864#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2018/MINORS

Edited November 28, 2018 by SF Twins Fan

[Thegrin]

I have a novel idea. Leave one position alone. Left Field. Run Eddy Rosario out there every day and let him do what he does.  He's worth the price of admission to any Twins game.  

[Riverbrian]

 

Watching Twins batters strike out with a runner on 2nd base and nobody out last year was just brutal. I can't stress how many runs were wasted simply because guys couldn't make contact. Astudillo might not be Tony Gwynn but his contact rate is desperately needed on this team. He puts the ball in play, period. I hope the Twins are seriously considering ways to get him as many ABs as possible. Really hope he makes the team out of ST.

 

Astudillo's not a "nobody" anymore. A diamond in the rough is only valuable if you use the player. He won't do us any good stashed in the minors.

 

All in all... I agree with every word you saying about Astudilo. His bat plays... I'm a believer. 

 

The only place where I disagree is going to come down to the definition of "Stashed". If starting in Rochester means that he won't see the light of a major league day then I agree with you.

 

However, my definition of stashed is... he comes up when someone is playing poorly or is injured. With his flexibility... he could be the first call up for poor performance or injury at Catcher, 3B or 1B. In other words he wouldn't have to stay there long and if he performs like he did last year. He wouldn't have to be sent back and you have now created depth. 

 

The alternative to that isn't appealing to me. That would be to give Astudillo a 25 man roster spot because he earned it (he kinda did). Count on him doing it again... and if it doesn't work out due to poor performance or injury... now you got to go with Bobby Wilson #2 who was signed as Farm filler. 

 

The Twins are in much better position for all eventualities if they have Castro and Garver with Astudillo waiting for a phone call.

 

If you hand Astudillo a 25 man spot... (I get the temptation, I'm half way there myself) you are not as strong nor prepared for failure. It also needs to be considered that every time you hand a 25 man spot to someone with options like Astudillo... It closes the door on adding someone else to the 25 man roster because he got the available spot.  

 

 

[Tomj14]

How about moving some of the mediocre talent that they are trying to find spots for, and getting better baseball players?

[Riverbrian]

 

Fun article.

 

If the Twins are trying to win in 2019, Fernando Romero to the bullpen makes a ton of sense. Long term? That's really difficult to say without knowing whether they're going to be willing to extend Gibson, sign free agents or trade for starters. The 2020 rotation is looking really thin (no Gibby, no Odorizzi, no Pineda).

 

I'd do it. If your season goes down the tank, you can always send Romero back down, stretch him out and get him ready to start again in 2020.

 

Why can't Romero throw 150 plus innings out of the pen? 

 

The only reason he can't is because of past baseball conventions that you have a 5 man rotation and a bullpen full of guys who throw one inning at a time. He could start in the 5th and pitch until the 8th out of the "Pen" and do it twice every 5 game stretch. 

 

The Rays, A's and Brewers (and Twins) kinda showed everybody that the 5 man rotation is about to go away for teams that keep trying and dying to find 5 competent "Innings Eaters" to absorb all those innings in the traditional way.  They are growing tired of throwing a 5 plus ERA starter every fifth day trying to get through a season with 5 designated starters. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Torii was not a "league average" defender out there in 2015, not even close. he was almost exactly as awful as he was in 2013 with the Tigers, he just wasn't as horrendously abysmal as he was in 2014 with the Tigers. Torii was 2017 Eddie Rosario in Target Field: awful. target Field did not make Torii a league average player again, he was in fact a sub-replacement level player by bWAR.

 

I don't think Target Field is some bandbox with high walls to keep the HRs in play, either. And yes, with Buxton in CF the RF doesn't have to cover as much territory, but with a fielder of Kepler's capacity whomever is playing CF can shade over to LF and help Rosario out without losing anything.

 

Torii's UZR/150 went from a brutal -10.3 influenced mostly by a -7.8 range component at Comerica Park in 2015 to a 4.1 UZR/150 with a positive range component at Target Field in 2016. His BBR defensive WAR went from -2.3 to -1.4 and his Fangraphs defensive WAR went from -14.5 to -3.3. His DRS went from -17 to -8 and his OOZ increased from 50 to 62. If from your view he was still awful in right field, I think that any measure you use shows that being awful at that position is not terribly penalized at Target Field.

[Riverbrian]

 

Cody Bellinger is not a very good comp for Kepler. Bellinger's a first baseman who hits like one; if you put him in CF as a tactical move, say to get Max Muncy's bat into the game, the hope is that Bellinger's bat really outshines other CFers and compensates for a marginal glove. (I still don't understand LA's roster well enough to see why you wouldn't put him in a corner OF spot and use someone else in CF, but it may just go to show that all of this is second-order effects.)

 

Kepler may yet achieve that level of hitting, but right now he's pretty much the opposite player. If he's not using his OF skills, a lot of his value is wasted.

 

I am all for positional flexibility. But from a given player's perspective, it's to give him somewhere to play when the team has 3 better outfielders, say, than himself. We aren't close to that in the case of Kepler, or at least I don't like Cave or Rosario better than him.

 

Flexibility is good in the abstract, and if (say) Cron goes down with an injury mid-game, and Austin is DHing already, telling Kep to go grab a first-baseman's glove for the remainder of the game sits just fine with me.

 

But while an overall flexible strategy is fine, it still comes down to specific games. And if I'm writing out a lineup that has Kep at 1B, an instant improvement is to swap him to an outfield spot and let the other outfielder be positionally-flexible and handle 1B duties that game. That will remain true, even if Kep improves at bat and starts to hit like a first-baseman too, until the day his OF skill eventually erodes.

 

I'm going to simplify my thoughts the best I can... and that is really hard for me. 

 

For example... If you put a roster together with 25 players who can play. If you do that... all organizations will be forced... and I mean forced... to adopt positional flexibility to accommodate all the talent. Necessity is the mother of invention. The Dodgers are over loaded with talent and they have to move pieces around to make it work. 

 

If you are fearful of the side-effects of moving Kepler around to playing 1B for a game or two. You immediately restrict and put parameters on flexibility and the eventual result of that is: You don't sign a 4th outfielder and are then forced to hope and pray that Kepler becomes the RF we need him to become and if he doesn't... Grossman is the guy waiting on the bench. 

 

Flexibility is a natural by-product of having a talented roster. Fear of flexibility prevents you filling out your roster to the brim with talent. 

 

Just adopt the idea of flexibility and fill your roster. 

 

 

[jmlease1]

 

Torii's UZR/150 went from a brutal -10.3 influenced mostly by a -7.8 range component at Comerica Park in 2015 to a 4.1 UZR/150 with a positive range component at Target Field in 2016. His BBR defensive WAR went from -2.3 to -1.4 and his Fangraphs defensive WAR went from -14.5 to -3.3. His DRS went from -17 to -8 and his OOZ increased from 50 to 62. If from your view he was still awful in right field, I think that any measure you use shows that being awful at that position is not terribly penalized at Target Field.

 

Torii Hunter:

2013 defensive bWAR: -1.5

2014 defensive bWAR: -2.3

2015 defensive bWAR: -1.4

 

Fangraphs might have liked him a bit better, but he was as bad in 2013 as he was in 2015 by at least one measure. Isn't it more like Torii just had an extra bad year his second year in Detroit and reverted back towards the mean than Target Field was so much easier for him to play RF? It's possible you're right and just being in Target Field can cover some of the shortcomings of a RF with bad range and declining glove skills, but Kepler is just flat-out great and it doesn't matter what park it is. he makes all the plays out there and makes plays he shouldn't be able to do. a big part of his value is in the OF defense he brings to the table. you may not think that matters, but I'm guessing the pitching staff disagrees...

[Riverbrian]

If you need a LHP starter for some reason, you have Mejia.....I wouldn't move Rogers in a million years. He's doing what he should be.

You don’t have to move Rogers to the rotation. All you gotta do is increase his innings from 60 to lets say 100.

[Tomj14]

 

 The Dodgers are over loaded with talent and they have to move pieces around to make it work.

Can we agree that being overloaded with talent is different than being over loaded with players?

The Dodgers had 10 guys with a OWAR over 2, the Twins had 2 and traded one of them to Arizona.

 

Trying to make guys that can't hit (Well) into flexible position players seems like pissing into the wind. IMO

[twinstalker]

Romero has two pitches, command issues, and breaks down or doesn't have stamina.  That's the history. There's never been a more clear-cut case of someone needing to go to the pen.

[bird]

 

How about moving some of the mediocre talent that they are trying to find spots for, and getting better baseball players?

 

 

Novel. Maybe we should start a thread some time where everyone could noodle this idea.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I think people are completely forgetting why Romero has only pitched ~ 5 innings per game. He basically missed two full seasons in 2014 and 2015, so it has taken him some time to build his arm strength back up. In 2016 he pitched 90.1 innings, 2017 he pitched 125 innings and in 2018 he pitched 146.1 innings. There is no reason to think he won't increase his innings pitched in 2019 to ~ 175. He's basically been on a pitch count / innings limit every game to make sure he could finish the season.

And despite this aggressive workload management, he has STILL pretty evidently worn down in each of the past two seasons. Take a look at what happened to his numbers in August both years. That's kinda the point here. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

Can we agree that being overloaded with talent is different than being over loaded with players?

The Dodgers had 10 guys with a OWAR over 2, the Twins had 2 and traded one of them to Arizona.

 

Trying to make guys that can't hit (Well) into flexible position players seems like pissing into the wind. IMO

We agree

 

And here is how they did it.

 

They dont tolerate bad play. They didn’t buy it with money like most assume.

 

Back when Dozier was playing like crap for us, I stated that the Dodgers wouldn’t tolerate it while the Twins tolerated that sort of thing all the time and have for decades.

 

Well... Dozier gets traded to the Dodgers and they didn’t tolerate it and it was Kike Hernandez playing 2B the majority of the time.?

 

It can be argued that the Twins had no choice because of Ryan LaMarre and whatever.

 

But the Dodgers replaced Dozier with their versions of Ryan LaMarre.

 

The Dodgers created a full roster of talent because they gave playing time to players who played the best. It wasn’t money that gave them Taylor, Muncy and Kike.

 

This how they created depth and flexibility allows them to keep it all.

 

The Twins will be handicapped trying to create depth if the team continues to be satisfied with bad play getting everyday time or nervous about Kepler playing 1B to handle over flow in case you decide to try and create overflow.

 

And if they can’t create depth... we will be victimized every single time we have players like Dozier playing like crap.

 

The Dodgers didn’t buy it. The Dodgers simply said... you must perform and didn’t care about the pedigree of those who were or weren’t performing.

[ashbury]

If you are fearful of the side-effects of moving Kepler around to playing 1B for a game or two.

Simplifying my thoughts leads me to point out that I was responding to Nick's proposal to have Kepler split time between RF and 1B, not simply fill in for a game or two.

 

Do you envision Jake Cave in RF when Kepler's at first? Perhaps you like Cave's outfield defense better. That would lead to a different conclusion than I draw.

 

Otherwise, I suggest that positional flexibility should not be a one-way street and should not apply to Kepler alone.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

And despite this aggressive workload management, he has STILL pretty evidently worn down in each of the past two seasons. Take a look at what happened to his numbers in August both years. That's kinda the point here. 

 

Actually, I'm not missing the point at all but it seems like you are. He has steadily increased his innings over the past couple of seasons. I could care less that he starts to wear down in his last few starts of the season while he's building up arm strength. He should now be able to go a full season without a pitch count and people want to limit him to the bullpen? What's the point? Sure, he could be great in relief but why not at least give him a full season without any restrictions to prove if he is a starter or not? Why would you want to take a player who has the potential to be a #2 - #3 in a rotation and move him into a significantly less valuable role when he's still 23 years old? That makes zero sense.