Article: 4 Creative Tweaks the Twins Can Make to Get Better

[Monkeypaws]

 

 

They should just change the team name to the Minnesota Astudillos already.  The kids got moxie.  Here are his winter league stats.  Hitting even better with men on base, and better when in scoring position.  This guy is the Chosen One we've been searching for.  You were expecting a 1st Round Pick Knight, you got a hobbit.  That is the way these stories go.  (I took a deep breath and tapped the breaks before writing this paragraph.)

 

The most intriguing stat from Astudillo this winter, besides the .909 ops.

 

2 stolen bases in 3 attempts.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Nick... You'll be getting resistance on this but your thinking is exactly how you the team needs to think. The team doesn't need to follow your plan to a tee but the concepts you raise are important. 

 

Kepler: I understand that he is a plus plus defender in the OF. The discussion isn't a full time move to 1B never to play OF again. It is the occasional game played at 1B. If anyone is claiming that our defense is going to fall apart of if Kepler isn't in RF EVERY DAY, then they didn't notice that Kepler wasn't in the OF every day last year. It doesn't have to be Kepler... Rosario occasionally at 3B. It allows you to acquire more assets if you have places to move the over flow. This isn't a hard concept and the fears expressed are 18th century. 

 

Romero and May: Sconnie is right, Remove the starting/reliever pitching labels. Make them pitchers. You don't have to choose between 1 inning of work or 6 innings of work with May. If he's getting people out... let him keep getting people out. Those who get batters out, get more innings. Same thing with Romero. Working Romero out of the bullpen with the idea that a bullpen arm doesn't have to throw just one inning will be a way to manage how many innings he throws. Across baseball Starters had a 4.29 ERA and the bullpen arms had a 4.09 ERA.   

 

Astudillo... Oddly enough. This is the only place I have a slight disagreement. He has options... you need depth in the minors. By starting Astudillo in Rochester... it prevents the team from needing Bobby Wilson as injury replacement. 

I can get behind Rosario getting some 3B time more than I can getting Kepler some 1b time. Jake Cave's bat in left is more valuable than Adrianza's at 3rd. Kepler's bat is a downgrade against Right handed pitchers compared to Cron. Kepler's fielding is preferable over Cave, however.

 

I disagree on Astudillo - on the big league club as the super-duper-ute he still stops the Bobby Wilson types or ensures the Bobby Wilson types stay in AAA. moreover he gives you the roster flexibility to ensure Gordon gets all the triple A TLC and at-bats he needs. You could possibly not exercise Astudillo's option and still have it for next year. If Gordon earns his way up to the big league club, you can still exercise Astudillo's option and have a space for him.  

[ChrisKnutson]

I love Rosario, but his defense can be really questionable at times, so why not move him to a part time role at DH, let Kepler play LF, and then sign someone to play RF on a 1 year deal (Jones/Span/Markakis??). Yeah, we ‘could’ find more playing time for Cave, but I’d rather go with a veteran, and besides, Cave seems more like trade chip anyways; always need more pitching.

[Number3]

As Riverbrian said, the concept here is right on. In other words, maximize the talent you already have instead of constantly looking for the miracle acquisition. Nothing is etched in stone and one would think that the time in FL could be better spent than yucking it up in pretend games and working out the Nassau bets for the golf course.

[Riverbrian]

I can get behind Rosario getting some 3B time more than I can getting Kepler some 1b time. Jake Cave's bat in left is more valuable than Adrianza's at 3rd. Kepler's bat is a downgrade against Right handed pitchers compared to Cron. Kepler's fielding is preferable over Cave, however.

 

I disagree on Astudillo - on the big league club as the super-duper-ute he still stops the Bobby Wilson types or ensures the Bobby Wilson types stay in AAA. moreover he gives you the roster flexibility to ensure Gordon gets all the triple A TLC and at-bats he needs. You could possibly not exercise Astudillo's option and still have it for next year. If Gordon earns his way up to the big league club, you can still exercise Astudillo's option and have a space for him.

I use Kepler as an example of the idea. If Rosario could play IF it wouldn’t be necessary to move Kepler. If Austin could play OF. DH opens for a bunch of different matchup moves. I’m not going to get tied to one specific player but I am tied to the concept.

 

On Astudillo. I love the guy. He should have gotten at least a hundred more AB’s with us last year. I want the team stacked with enough talent that players with options have to Knock down the door to make the roster.

[HrbieFan]

Cardinals have had success starting younger guys in the pen and then transitioning them to SP later on. But as of now I have no clue how the rotation will shake out. Will we 3 traditional SP and 2 Openers? Would being a primary pitcher help Romero? His arm is talented and we need to get it on the major league staff for a complete year.

[beetlebum71]

Fun piece.  The issue with moving Kepler to 1B, even part time, is that so much of his value is derived from his excellent play in RF.  Even if he ends up being a plus defender at first, too, his defense won't have the same positive impact that it has in the OF.  Add to that the fact that you'll be replacing him in RF with, most likely, Jake Cave, and now you're potentially making yourself worse at two defensive positions.  I like the idea of having a guy who can play 1B and OF, but if I'm going to ask one of my OF to grab a 1B mitt, I think it'd be Cave.  It doesn't look like he's ever played there, so the learning curve would be steeper than it would be for Kepler, and he's not the big target over there that Max would be, but he's a marginal defender in the OF, would satisfy the desire to have a LH option over there, and would not reduce your OF defense.  The Twins were good in 2017 largely because of their OF defense.  I'd like to see them go back to that now that Buxton will be healthy.

[nicksaviking]

I like it, though like others have said, I'd still like to see Romero be a more traditional starter. If I flex one of the current starters out it would be Odorizzi who has proven to be very good for a few innings but an absolute disaster should he face a batter a third time. He'd probably thrive being a 2-3-4 inning long man used ideally by a forward thinking manager to bridge to the late innings arms, not wasted as a mop up guy used by an old school manager.

 

And I like Kepler playing 1B rotationally. I think those that are opposed are viewing the situation as Kepler-centric, but it's not. Max is most likely and most often going to be starting, but it would be easier to find a corner outfield bat to help bolster the offense than a 1B, which is a position quickly becoming void of offense.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

? May had literally never missed time with an arm injury before the UCL tear. 

 

May started missing time once he went to the pen... That's why some of us want him starting

 

 

Then again, I've given up hope on that... 

 

No to Romero. He needs to start. 

 

Like the idea of Kepler being a bit of a platoon partner to our RH 1B/DH guys, but that works best if Kepler start to hit. 

[twinfan]

May and Romero (along with Mejia) can be very good starters for 5 innings but then they break down. This puts loads of pressure on the bullpen. Thus, they can all be used either as short starters or long (middle) relievers. My biggest problem is the manager taking a relief pitcher out after pitching a solid inning. You use up your bullpen that way and they eventually become tired and ineffective. That has happened to us over the past years. I like Astudillo as a super sub type guy who can lead off for us.

[SomeGuy]

Instead of having Kepler play 1B and signing an OF/DH, wouldn't we be better off signing someone who could play a position other than 1B or RF?  Seems silly to have a "versatile" player playing positions that we are already flush at.

 

Someone like Jed Lowrie, who closely resembles Bellingers ouput last year, would get us someone who can play 2B and 3B.  A position of need and a position of doubt.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Romero only got to 145 innings last year. I think a plan that targets more than 165 or so is unlikely to come to fruition. If he’s in the rotation for 32 starts, that’s only 5 innings per start, which is less than ideal.

In an earlier post, I suggested using him as the designated reliever for Odorizzi’s first 10 or so starts, with the intention of him finishing the game. Assuming he’s been effective, then slide him into the rotation at the next appropriate time (the next injury or suckage on the part of one of the starters). It may take a couple of starts to restretch him out from 3-4 innings to being a full-time starter, since he was probably throwing about 60 pitches or so, but that’s not insurmountable. Maybe a time or two in those first 10 games, you pull Odo after 4 innings to keep Romero stretched out a bit.

That’s probably about 35 innings in relief, leaving about 130 innings for the remaining 22 times through the rotation, which is close to 6 innings per start, closer to what we’re looking for. It also holds out the opportunity of him still being available in a playoff run. If he’s in the rotation from the beginning, I don’t think it’s realistic to have much left in October if we get there.

Berrios, Odo, Pineda, Gibson, Mejia, by the way. I’ve separated Berrios and Gibson since they are the most likely to go deep enough to give the bullpen a break. I’d be glad to upgrade from Mejia. I’d also be okay with targeting this group as the rotation for the first 50 games or so, which gives enough time to see whether it’s worth going after a rental.

And while I’m at it, I’ll take David Robertson (3/$33M) as my highest priority and one more from among Familia, Britton, and Ottovino (same), plus a flier on Soria (1/$10 + option 1/$8M).

Offensively, success largely rises and falls on Buxton and Sano, so my primary focus is on 2B with Cron in the hopper.

 

I have no idea why he couldn't pitch more innings than that......but, here is something to consider.....only 50 pitchers pitched more than 170 innings last year.....so pitching 170 isn't some demerit. It just is how the league works. There is no reason to not use him as a starter, from an innings perspective at least.

 

 

[Nick Nelson]

 

May started missing time once he went to the pen... That's why some of us want him starting

He was sidelined for a bit with back issues (for the first time) but still made 48 total appearances that season. Prior to the Twins trying him in the bullpen he'd pretty much never missed a start in his pro career (I think he had a minor calf injury in like 2014). So the previous comment about a "career of breakdowns" seems quite off-the-mark to me. I'm not sure everyone fully understands just how durable May has been in his career outside of those two (arguably fluky) injuries. And he looked as strong as ever by the end of this year.

 

 

Instead of having Kepler play 1B and signing an OF/DH, wouldn't we be better off signing someone who could play a position other than 1B or RF?  Seems silly to have a "versatile" player playing positions that we are already flush at.

They're not mutually exclusive ideas. I would hardly say the Twins are "flush" at 1B.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

May and Romero (along with Mejia) can be very good starters for 5 innings but then they break down. This puts loads of pressure on the bullpen. Thus, they can all be used either as short starters or long (middle) relievers. My biggest problem is the manager taking a relief pitcher out after pitching a solid inning. You use up your bullpen that way and they eventually become tired and ineffective. That has happened to us over the past years. I like Astudillo as a super sub type guy who can lead off for us.

 

the median start in the majors last year was 5.1 innings......starters don't go long anymore. They just don't.

[Steve Lein]

I'm on board with 3.5 of these ideas.

 

1. Being someone who has campaigned for Kepler to play some at 1B, I like this. He wouldn't primarily play there, but a platoon doesn't have to equal one of the guys sitting on the bench every game. You could have Austin/Cron at 1B vs. lefties, Kepler there some days vs. righties. I'm thinking 110 games in the OF, 40 at 1B type of thing. Versatility is a good thing and would let someone like Cave get more run.

 

2. I think people have fallen too much in love with Romero's "stuff" or the things they read about it. I think he's going to end up in the bullpen anyway. He barely averaged 5 innings per start MLB last year, and only 5 1/2 innings in his MiLB ones. This is what his entire career has been, solid numbers in limited innings because he doesn't get deep into games as he can't consistently maintain that stuff (he only struck out 6.8/9IP at Triple A last year...). Switch the premises of Romero and the next guy's point, and you might be onto something though.

 

3. Rather than starting or using May as a "primary," I'd just unleash him as your fireman. Need multiple innings from him after a short start? Use him. Need to shut down a threat in the 6th or 7th? Use him. Up by one in the 8th facing heart of an order? Use him. I think you could get 80-100 innings out of him this way if you wanted. But I like him in the 'pen.

 

4. Yes. Do it.

[Mike Sixel]

I like how people believe in Cron, but have decided a much younger Kepler is a finished product offensively.....

[Tom Froemming]

Fun article.

 

If the Twins are trying to win in 2019, Fernando Romero to the bullpen makes a ton of sense. Long term? That's really difficult to say without knowing whether they're going to be willing to extend Gibson, sign free agents or trade for starters. The 2020 rotation is looking really thin (no Gibby, no Odorizzi, no Pineda).

 

I'd do it. If your season goes down the tank, you can always send Romero back down, stretch him out and get him ready to start again in 2020.

[Riverbrian]

May started missing time once he went to the pen... That's why some of us want him starting

 

 

 

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

I use Kepler as an example of the idea. If Rosario could play IF it wouldn’t be necessary to move Kepler. If Austin could play OF. DH opens for a bunch of different matchup moves. I’m not going to get tied to one specific player but I am tied to the concept.

On Astudillo. I love the guy. He should have gotten at least a hundred more AB’s with us last year. I want the team stacked with enough talent that players with options have to Knock down the door to make the roster.

Rosario (2B), Austin (OF), and Cron (3B OF) all have history of playing on other parts of the field in the minor leagues. Curious why that stopped when they got to the bigs...

[ashbury]

Cody Bellinger is not a very good comp for Kepler. Bellinger's a first baseman who hits like one; if you put him in CF as a tactical move, say to get Max Muncy's bat into the game, the hope is that Bellinger's bat really outshines other CFers and compensates for a marginal glove. (I still don't understand LA's roster well enough to see why you wouldn't put him in a corner OF spot and use someone else in CF, but it may just go to show that all of this is second-order effects.)

 

Kepler may yet achieve that level of hitting, but right now he's pretty much the opposite player. If he's not using his OF skills, a lot of his value is wasted.

 

I am all for positional flexibility. But from a given player's perspective, it's to give him somewhere to play when the team has 3 better outfielders, say, than himself. We aren't close to that in the case of Kepler, or at least I don't like Cave or Rosario better than him.

 

Flexibility is good in the abstract, and if (say) Cron goes down with an injury mid-game, and Austin is DHing already, telling Kep to go grab a first-baseman's glove for the remainder of the game sits just fine with me.

 

But while an overall flexible strategy is fine, it still comes down to specific games. And if I'm writing out a lineup that has Kep at 1B, an instant improvement is to swap him to an outfield spot and let the other outfielder be positionally-flexible and handle 1B duties that game. That will remain true, even if Kep improves at bat and starts to hit like a first-baseman too, until the day his OF skill eventually erodes.

[Riverbrian]

Rosario (2B), Austin (OF), and Cron (3B OF) all have history of playing on other parts of the field in the minor leagues. Curious why that stopped when they got to the bigs...

I’m some cases it may be ability and some cases it is about the quickest access but the majority of cases (in my opinion) its because of an arcane sense of specialization.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This. It would be great to add another OF/DH bat, but let's not forget about Cave. He was better than Kepler last year and frankly if merit is the basis for playing time - Cave starts in RF or CF next season and Kepler or Buxton sits on the bench. Realistically, that means Kepler sits at least until Buxton gets hurt again and/or flames out at the plate. 

 

Moving Kepler to 1B at least part time is a great idea. It's really the only way we can get 500 plus ABS for four players who deserve them in this order based on past performance- Cave, Cron, Kepler and Austin. Those 4 are your RF/1B/DH grouping unless we can get a McCutchen or Brantley type and then we use one of the 4 as part of a trade for pitching or try to sneak Austin through waivers as AAA insurance/depth. Bottom line is if Cave plays like last year (and he gets the first shot at showing well since he was a better player than Kepler last year) and Buxton hits enough to be the everyday CF, Kepler is the odd man out. Playing him as a 4th OF/DH/1B gives him enough ABs to show that he's a better hitter than he's shown so far - something he needs to show THIS year. If he's not, he's a great 4th OF/depth guy on a good team or starting OF on a mediocre or worse team. Guys like Kepler whose last 3 years OPS are .734, .737 and .727 are NOT starting qulaity corner OFs on a contending team.  

 

I hope they are making decsions based on the future, not past.......this team isn't winning squat if Buxton isn't great and playing. Cron and Cave combined can't produce what a great Buxton can. And, if Buxton is bad, those two can't produce enough to make up for it....not for a playoff team.

[B Good]

I'm late to the game and didn't have time to read thru all the comments, but love the idea of Romero in the bullpen for a season or two.  Johan Santana did not become a full-time starter until his 5th season with the Twins.  Seemed to work out pretty well for him and the Twins.  Let Romero learn in the pen and mature, and if things work out, move him back to a starter down the road.  

[terrydactyls]

For all who insist that RF defensive is more important than 1B defense, here is something to ponder. In 2018, major league right fielders averaged 2.04 chances per nine innings and 1.95 outs. Also in 2018, major league first basemen averaged 8.65 chances per nine innings and 8.00 outs. Four times the chances and four times the outs. Please don't underestimate the importance of a good first baseman.

[Nick Nelson]

 

For all who insist that RF defensive is more important than 1B defense, here is something to ponder. In 2018, major league right fielders averaged 2.04 chances per nine innings and 1.95 outs. Also in 2018, major league first basemen averaged 8.65 chances per nine innings and 8.00 outs. Four times the chances and four times the outs. Please don't underestimate the importance of a good first baseman.

Good point that's being downplayed here. Neither Cron nor Austin are very good defensively. So while you might lose a bit in the outfield on days Kepler plays first, the gains you're likely making in the infield matter -- especially if there's a GB-centric pitcher on the mound.

[Mike Sixel]

 

For all who insist that RF defensive is more important than 1B defense, here is something to ponder. In 2018, major league right fielders averaged 2.04 chances per nine innings and 1.95 outs. Also in 2018, major league first basemen averaged 8.65 chances per nine innings and 8.00 outs. Four times the chances and four times the outs. Please don't underestimate the importance of a good first baseman.

 

That's not how it works........plays in the OF are MUCH more difficult than plays at 1B. The data is clear, there just isn't much difference between ok defense at 1B, and great defense at first, but there are huge discrepancies in the OF.

[ashbury]

For all who insist that RF defensive is more important than 1B defense, here is something to ponder. In 2018, major league right fielders averaged 2.04 chances per nine innings and 1.95 outs. Also in 2018, major league first basemen averaged 8.65 chances per nine innings and 8.00 outs. Four times the chances and four times the outs. Please don't underestimate the importance of a good first baseman.

 

Good point that's being downplayed here. Neither Cron nor Austin are very good defensively. So while you might lose a bit in the outfield on days Kepler plays first, the gains you're likely making in the infield matter -- especially if there's a GB-centric pitcher on the mound.

I think the flaw here is that not all chances are equal. It's true that a majority of RF chances are cans of corn. But the majority of chances at 1B are also routine. The batter at least is trying to hit something that a RFer can't get to; the shortstop throwing to first is trying to give the 1Bman something he can handle.

 

Also, the consequences of a poor play at 1B are not as great as in RF. The batter could easily end up on third base with a muff in RF, or sometimes go all the way home. Also anyone already on base has a better chance of grabbing an extra base if the missed ball has to come in from the outfield, than if the first baseman can somewhat corral it or if (say) the catcher is backing things up.

 

If I can't have both, I'll trade 1B prowess for RF prowess any day of the week.

[jmlease1]

Yeah, just not loving the idea of putting Kepler at 1B, I mean I guess it might be better than having him DH as a way to get more LH hitters in the lineup because his size and athleticism should translate well there, but man...we're doing it for Jake Cave?

 

I guess I wouldn't care about it for 10-12 games, but I'm hoping Kepler improves offensively and coupled with his elite D can be a mainstay in the OF. but he needs to hit, because if his hitting doesn't improve it's hard to justify his bat at any other position. People haven't been happy with Mauer's production at 1B, and Joe was elite defensively. We don't know if Max could match that D (maybe with enough play time?) and he's hit worse than Mauer the last three years and it's not really close.

 

I do like the idea of letting Astudillo get 500 ABs, though. This lineup could use another high BA guy and it'd be fun as hell to see if he can be one of those guys who can get away with hacking at everything because he just hits it. Super utility guy who can hit over .300? sign me up.

[Vanimal46]

I echo several others in here to keep May in the bullpen. It doesn't seem like the best use of his talent to have him as a primary pitcher.

 

I'm going to cringe every time this opener concept is discussed. I accept that this isn't going away until they give it the ol' college try. Since it's here, use it to get rookie pitchers comfortable in the big leagues. May has been there and done that. He shouldn't need an opener before pitching 4-5 innings.

[jkcarew]

Only in Minnesota I guess does it seem like a good idea to get more first-base at bats for a league-average hitter. How 'bout we just get a first-baseman that can legitimately thump? Dodgers played 16 post-season games last year, Bellinger started at first-base in exactly zero of those games. Because the Dodgers wanted to win, and they found a first-baseman that can hit like a first-baseman.

 

The Romero comments make sense to me. There's a pattern, and it's getting close to the time the Twins need to make a call on how to get Romero contributing for more than half a season.

 

Astudillo is refreshingly unique. He's also a career 760 OPS guy in thousands of minor league and foreign at-bats. In 93 at-bats last year, his SLG was 100 points higher than his MiLB/foreign career, and his HR rate was nearly 3 times his that track-record. I think the fact that any of us are intrigued by the thought of him being an (nearly) every-day player, says much about what the 2019 line-up would look like at this point in time.