Article: Pros and Crons: Weighing the Merits of Minnesota's Latest Addition

[raindog]

 

I don’t understand the interest in Santana. He’s old, expensive, dh only, barely league average, and requires a trade.

He gets on base a ton, even in a down year. The Twins need that. Cron isn't going to provide it. 

[TheLeviathan]

The Rondell White justification:

 

"A couple million for him isn't bad!"

 

I'm done with that.

[ahart10]

He gets on base a ton, even in a down year. The Twins need that. Cron isn't going to provide it.

Almost exactly as much as Robbie Grossssssssssman

[caninatl04]

 

If the twins have a fifty million dollar spending budget, five of that is gone. Do people think they'll go over, and then cut Cron? Or, do you think that money is now spent and not not available?

Maybe someone who knows could answer this:  assume the Twins decide to tender him an arbitration offer and after the counter-offers etc., it does, indeed, come in at $5 million.  Is this guaranteed?  For the whole season?  If the Twins cut him before spring training? During? After?

[raindog]

 

Almost exactly as much as Robbie Grossssssssssman

Except he provides more power even in a down year, with the potential to bounce back to previous levels. 

 

And Grossman should be no more than a DH so position flexibility doesn't give him an advantage, either. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

I don’t understand the interest in Santana. He’s old, expensive, dh only, barely league average, and requires a trade.

Santana would've ranked first or second among Twins regulars in OBP in each of the last 6 years. He's also been extremely durable and extremely consistent. 

 

With Mauer departing, he's the kinda player MN badly needs. Another free-swinger with mediocre on-base skills and some power? Meh. They got that in spades.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Almost exactly as much as Robbie Grossssssssssman

Carlos Santana's WAR in 2017: 2.9

Robbie Grossman's career WAR: 2.6

 

C'mon

[ahart10]

I’m saying I don’t want either of them on the team.

[ewen21]

 

The Rondell White justification:

 

"A couple million for him isn't bad!"

 

I'm done with that.

White was in his mid-30s and past his prime

 

I am nor understanding the consternation some have demonstrated over this move.  

[Vanimal46]

I bet if we look at some Rays forums, we will find a few "wtf!" comments.

Once upon a time on this very website there were 10+ pages of "wtf!" comments when they left Zach Jones unprotected in the Rule 5 draft.

 

Remember Zach Jones? He was supposed to be good I think.

[ahart10]

Carlos Santana's WAR in 2017: 2.9

Robbie Grossman's career WAR: 2.6

 

C'mon

I agree that Santana is better than Grossy but he’s not what is needed. What’s needed is a middle of the order bat to build a lineup. The only thing the Twins have close to that is Rosario, and with Donaldson off the market I don’t think anymore are available. I know batting average isn’t a stat most people like but Santana hit .229 last year.

This team doesn’t have a core to build on. What they need is short term veterans that can be traded at the deadline like last year. I expect many of the same type of “fall to Twins” deals that were made last year.

[Thrylos]

 

Carlos Santana's WAR in 2017: 2.9

Robbie Grossman's career WAR: 2.6

 

C'mon

 

2017 is far away for a soon to be 33 year old former catcher with knee and back issues, and comparing WAR between players in different positions makes zero sense, because of the different weights on defense.

 

Apples with apples:

 

2018 fWAR:

 

Cron 2.1

Santana 1.9

 

I'd take the younger, healthier, more productive player for less $ and no prospect cost.  No brainer, other than the memories of the ghost of Santana's past while with Cleveland in his prime.

 

Comparing offensive production:

 

2018 wRC+

 

Santana: 109
Cron: 122
Grossman: 108

 

Still a no-brainer with even bigger difference.

 

Cron (younger and cheaper in both $ and players) created 20% or so more runs than Santana who had pretty much the production of Grossman last season.

 

[ahart10]

Thank you for being better at words than me.

[TheLeviathan]

White was in his mid-30s and past his prime

 

I am nor understanding the consternation some have demonstrated over this move.

 

Low upside, nickel and dime moves.

 

Those lose in the short and long term.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Maybe someone who knows could answer this:  assume the Twins decide to tender him an arbitration offer and after the counter-offers etc., it does, indeed, come in at $5 million.  Is this guaranteed?  For the whole season?  If the Twins cut him before spring training? During? After?

 

The issue isn't that, it's that if they keep him until spring training, they spent 5MM on him. And not someone else (or putting more money on a better player). Whether they spend the money eventually or not, they spent some of their FA money. It is, of course, possible he is cut before spring, and they use the money on someone else (they'd be on the hook for around 500K). But, realistically, do we think that's the plan?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree that Santana is better than Grossy but he’s not what is needed. What’s needed is a middle of the order bat to build a lineup. The only thing the Twins have close to that is Rosario, and with Donaldson off the market I don’t think anymore are available. I know batting average isn’t a stat most people like but Santana hit .229 last year.
This team doesn’t have a core to build on. What they need is short term veterans that can be traded at the deadline like last year. I expect many of the same type of “fall to Twins” deals that were made last year.

 

So, you are planning to punt on another year of Sano and Buxton? If so, which might be realistic, shouldn't they be trading Pineda and Gibson right now?

[ahart10]

So, you are planning to punt on another year of Sano and Buxton? If so, which might be realistic, shouldn't they be trading Pineda and Gibson right now?

Yes, punt. Trade anyone in arbitration already and hope the Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol era comes out better. You think this core is anywhere near contention, or even pretenders?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes, punt. Trade anyone in arbitration already and hope the Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol era comes out better. You think this core is anywhere near contention, or even pretenders?

 

I'm not ready to give up on Buxton and Sano yet, but I don't blame anyone that is.

 

Part of the problem is that they added no long term players last year, none. Had they added one last year they'd have one less hole this year. But, they went all in on short term free agents, and did not sign one long term player. Now, they need to replace all the short term signing except Reed and Pineda and Odo, who, btw, are gone after this year (and not were good last year, two were injured).

[Nick Nelson]

 

Comparing offensive production:

 

2018 wRC+

 

Santana: 109
Cron: 122
Grossman: 108

I mean yeah, if you wanna make decisions on the basis of one year while ignoring track record and projection, sure. 

 

Carlos Santana is neither ancient (he's 32) nor injury-ravaged (he's never made fewer than 600 PAs in a season). The implication that he's breaking down is not supported by evidence. He had a bad month of April this year and then he was his normal self (.808 OPS). 

[ahart10]

I'm not ready to give up on Buxton and Sano yet, but I don't blame anyone that is.

 

Part of the problem is that they added no long term players last year, none. Had they added one last year they'd have one less hole this year. But, they went all in on short term free agents, and did not sign one long term player. Now, they need to replace all the short term signing except Reed and Pineda and Odo, who, btw, are gone after this year (and not were good last year, two were injured).

I was ready to give up on Buxton after his concussion when he was with the Kernels, and Sano once he, seemingly, showed he doesn’t give a crap by showing up out of shape every year.

Top prospects should always be traded. Why wait for an investment to mature when you can swap it for on that has already matured.

[joeshmoe]

I think I can say with a fairly high degree of confidence that CJ Cron has never had an article on him with 110 comments before in his life. And may never again, either.

[frightwig]

 

1. If the Twins want to drop a pile of cash on a free agent, the $5 mil for Cron isn't going to stop them.

2. I would argue that seeking a 1B platoon partner for Austin would limit roster flexibility more than simply trying to upgrade from him.

 

Yeah, I've seen a few people suggest that Cron might just split time with Austin, but carrying a platoon or backup 1B/DH tends to be difficult in the age of the 13-man pitching staff, if one of the guys isn't also a viable semi-regular OF. At the end of spring training, they'll probably have to choose one or the other. I'd guess that they're already planning to keep Cron, cut Grossman and Austin, and use the DH to rotate players from OF/3B/C or perhaps a bigger bat not yet on the roster.

[frightwig]

 

I mean yeah, if you wanna make decisions on the basis of one year while ignoring track record and projection, sure. 

 

Carlos Santana is neither ancient (he's 32) nor injury-ravaged (he's never made fewer than 600 PAs in a season). The implication that he's breaking down is not supported by evidence. He had a bad month of April this year and then he was his normal self (.808 OPS). 

 

Steamer and Depth Charts expect Santana to bounce back next year (I really have my doubts) and put up 119 wRC+, worth ~2.2 fWAR. Which is basically the value of Cron last year.

 

I'd swear that they updated Cron's projections just since yesterday, so it's more optimistic now than it had been, but in any case they're now projecting 115 wRC+ and ~1.3 fWAR from him (1.5 fWAR in 600 PA).

 

If you're the GM and you're looking at the numbers, and maybe people have told you that Cron made the adjustments that Parker described so they think he's for real, and you have that guy on the roster for about $5M, how likely is it that you're going to make a trade to get the 33 year-old 1B/DH (whose numbers have been down from his peak level in 3 of the last 4 seasons) who costs 4 times as much?

 

I would be surprised to see the Twins go get Santana, or spend a bunch of money at 1B/DH, now. If they're going to splash out, they'll probably spend on pitching. Maybe they'll pick up a middle infielder, but the lineup probably is what it is, more or less.

Edited November 28, 2018 by frightwig

[John Miller]

 

They aren't going to get to last year's payroll. They will say revenue is down, they will adjust payroll accordingly.

 

That aside, my concern is that whatever payroll headroom currently exists will be frittered away $5M at a time on players whose ceiling is league-average at best. Each move will be justified by price-performance; at no point will performance by itself be the priority. And thus we end up with a roster that aspires to .500.

 

That was what frustrated me with the previous FO too.

 

Paying the same eventual aggregate sum for a smaller number of actual difference-makers, and relying on the young players making up the rest of the roster to step up, seems like the better chance for excellence if we want to contend.

 

CJ Cron achieved a career year in 2018. It resulted in only about league-average performance, so he needs to take an additional step like that to become a real asset. $4 or $5M would be about a league-average salary (25 players, $100M or so). Everything about this waiver claim is in alignment. It's just... such low aspirations.

To me, the Twins can't afford to be cheap. The new TV deal for MLB should give the Twins plenty of money to play with. If the Pohlad's spend less money and are one of the top 10 richest owners all of sports, there is just no excuse anymore. Develop prospects and build around them through free agency. 

[nicksaviking]

So, you are planning to punt on another year of Sano and Buxton? If so, which might be realistic, shouldn't they be trading Pineda and Gibson right now?

Well Pohlad already all but said they’re not spending money this year. I’d imagine the front office is planning on making some trades and filling some holes in a non-splashy manner and attempting to play smarter and better baseball with the guys the have. That wouldn’t be terribly hard. The A’s and Rays have good teams but with few real excellent players. They’re over achievers but smart, I’d guess that’s the ceiling the Twins are aiming for. The A’s and Rays have next to no shot at winning a title, but we watched this organization do the same thing last decade and play into October.

 

Not that that’s my preference, just where it looks like it’s headed. And I don’t care about Sano and Buxton, if they work out great, if not, there’s other ball players to take their spots. They shouldn’t be counted on or built around.

[twinfan]

I don't see any real downside. Yes, people are comparing him to Morrison who was a bust (perhaps because of injury). We don't have much power on this team so his 18-23 home runs and (hopefully) .250+ batting average would be welcome. Maybe he could be trade bait. I'd now like to see the Twins get Brantley, Torreys (the Yanks let him go) and a couple of starters. Plus give Reed a shot at closing or use Rogers or Moya. We still have major question marks with Sano and Buxton so signing Cron isn't a bad move.

[Doomtints]

 

Once upon a time on this very website there were 10+ pages of "wtf!" comments when they left Zach Jones unprotected in the Rule 5 draft.

Remember Zach Jones? He was supposed to be good I think.

 

Did Zach Jones have 3-4 years of solid MLB experience at that time?

[jmlease1]

I'd be fine with adding carlos santana; I think he's likely to have a bit of a bounce back year (career low BABIP last season almost certainly depressed that BA and SLG) and is still a 2-3 WAR player whose switch hitting and ability to hit LHP and get on base would be a solid fit with Cron.

 

What confuses the heck out of me are the people in this thread advocating to move Max Kepler to 1B. Kepler's greatest value to the team last year was defensive and if you dump him in at 1B you diminish his greatest strengths right now (elite D in RF, above average D in CF, ability to PLAY CF effectively) while emphasizing his biggest weaknesses (hitting, hitting, hitting...). He's a terrific defensive player in the OF, why on earth would you move him to the least impactful defensive position on the field?

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'd be fine with adding carlos santana; I think he's likely to have a bit of a bounce back year (career low BABIP last season almost certainly depressed that BA and SLG) and is still a 2-3 WAR player whose switch hitting and ability to hit LHP and get on base would be a solid fit with Cron.

 

What confuses the heck out of me are the people in this thread advocating to move Max Kepler to 1B. Kepler's greatest value to the team last year was defensive and if you dump him in at 1B you diminish his greatest strengths right now (elite D in RF, above average D in CF, ability to PLAY CF effectively) while emphasizing his biggest weaknesses (hitting, hitting, hitting...). He's a terrific defensive player in the OF, why on earth would you move him to the least impactful defensive position on the field?

 

no one, I don't think, is arguing to move him there full time......but to have him in a rotation of Sano, Austin, Garver, Astudillo, Kepler, and now Cron.....because sometimes you want people to rest....and because sometimes you want others in the OF so he can "rest". Plus, he's 25.....why do people think this is his offense going forward? Sometimes you might want to pinch hit, and he might move to 1B. 

 

But, imo, now that Cron is here, it's very likely that he's the full time 1B, and this is moot.

[Doomtints]

Cron will be the cornerstone -- cornercron if you will -- of the 2021 Twins Championship.

 

See you there!